Kanako, today you pull the reverse of yesterday. There are well over 40 hours in the day phase, why do you drop a vote with no reasoning only to state that the reasoning "may potentially come later"?
Now, for some analysis of people yesterday. First, the people on the Chaore wagon:
UsuallyDead, Zakeri - if this was a bus, it was a very early preemptive one. While certainly nothing I wouldn't put past Zakeri, I think it's highly unlikely at this moment, given that they did not have any reason to do so unless UD is a very valuable Scum power role. As I've mentioned in past posts, if Zakeri is Scum then it is overwhelmingly likely that UD is Scum as well (though the converse is not necessarily true, Scum-UD does not imply greater probability of Scum-Zakeri). I still can't get an independent read of UD beyond "moron", going to see what Roukan's play today gives me. Zakeri...makes me a bit suspicious, but there are bigger fish to fry on this wagon, really.
K4U - first person to bring attention to Chaore as a valid case, largely responsible for my focus and back-and-forth rant with him that brought him center stage. Based off of both wagonalysis and her posts in general, likely Town, but needs to post moar.
Carthrat - swingvote, pressured Chaore into making a couple horrible posts that basically guaranteed his status as the D1 lynch at that. Likely Town, needs to post moar.
Now, that's it for the early people on the wagon. Now, what's interesting to note is that as of #244, Chaore basically sealed his status as D1 lynch, for reasons that Pesco outlines in the very next post. When combined with #211, he looked terrible. There was no reason for Scum *not* to bus him at this point, and this is why these people look interesting:
Jam - Disconcerting. Five posts, virtually no content (most of it is repeated statements from other players, or just reporter-style statements), and a "derp"-type vote for someone who was basically a goner at this point, using reasoning echoed from someone else. I want to see you post more, I want to see opinions, I want to see you vote for someone early this time, and not leave it off until the very end of the day.
Arashi - 3 useless posts filled with a lot of words and no content. Then this is made up by one post (#279) with a good amount of analysis, which has clear logic and does not seem scummy. The vote for Chaore is at a time when he is basically doomed, so it doesn't go in her favour or against her favour, but something about this post disconcerts me. It's just a gut thing, and my gut is known for being notoriously
unreliable, so I'm not going to make too much of it, but I want to see more posting of this same format from now on.
Nietz - Oh god, where to begin? #142 is a lot of words and virtually entirely reporter-style format, ending off with a wagon jump on UD in basically "lol lets wagon UD go go go!!!", #228 makes me want to force him to read some truly awful fanfic in a similar fashion as one of UD's posts made me, it consisted of observations, a statement that he didn't feel like reading posts, and an unvote with no revote (why?). #261 has, again, no content, votes on an effectively dead Scum, and has an edit that I really want an explanation for:
Nietz, what the hell do you mean by "you were right about me, Chaore"? In
what was he right? Why would you even post that without further clarification?
This is practically screaming Scum for me at the moment.
##Vote: NietzEvilTom - hopped on the wagon after a claim that guaranteed Chaore's lynch (Survivor is right up there with Bomb in the "roles you
don't fakeclaim as Scum" list), but no issues with his other posts. Also agree with him on Nietz. Leaning Town, needs to post moar in general.
tl;dr summary of Chaore wagonalysis: Zakeri, UD -
, Carthrat, K4U - very likely Town, Jam/Arashi - need to post moar, potential Scum, NEETz - my current pick as Scum, EvilTom -
, probably Town.
Now, let's take a look at the people
off the wagon. UK I need to do a proper reread over, and my statement on Sodium Silicate and Kanako is best described as "could you please start fucking playing already as you are REALLY making me wish I had an infinite-use dayvig to use on you", so that leaves myself (derp) and two other people:
Edible - seriously, you were useless. It's D1, but that doesn't mean you couldn't still have opinions. Not sure what to make of you tunnelling on UD, but the fact that you stayed on him without moving to Chaore at a time when Chaore was doomed makes me think you're more a stubborn/lazy Townie at this point than Scum. However, post moar.
Serpentarius - Hm. While I don't fault you for thinking that Chaore was not Scum, as I started thinking this myself near the end (btw, this is simply because I expected that if Chaore was to draw Scum then even
he would remember to act low and not be a moron and attract EVERYONE'S attention to himself, and that his play closely mirrored wrathie's in GWU, who *was* Town. Clearly this falls into the category of "it's virtually impossible to tell Dumb Town from Dumb Scum" and also the category of "the Too Scummy to be Scum fallacy is still, in general, a fallacy. Some people really ARE that dumb."), however:
- Kanako is a really easy target for a Scum to setup a wagon on, due to his general uselessness, and there was still enough time to get people to pile off of Chaore
- However, what
really worries me is his end-of-the-day activities. Yes, Kanako isn't getting enough pressure at this point for his crappy posting, but at the same time, it's clear that we are not going to get enough people to pile off of Chaore and onto Kanako for a Kanako lynch, considering that Kanako had 2 votes at this time, and Chaore L-2 (i.e. 7) votes at this time.
- Finally, why link a fairly horrible useage of fakeclaiming when you could just explain the general principle to Chaore? Though I will admit this makes me lean...actually I'm not even sure what to make of this, it's one of those things that makes little to no sense
regardless of alignment.
The key issue here is that while Serpentarius is suspicious for trying to start a secondary wagon on a sitting duck target late in the day when the primary wagon is a Scum wagon, on the other hand Kanako is being terrible, providing garbage posts with no content, and always making excuses with promises for actual
content later that never winds up manifesting itsself. I'm fairly certain that one of these is Scum, and that they're not BOTH Scum, but I'm not sure which of them is the Scum at the moment. Nietz is higher-priority right now anyway for me.
And now it's time to reread the UK/UD/Zakeri/Pesco/Chaore battle with a fine-tooth-comb again and see if I gain any useful information out of it. It *is* interesting that Chaore was so vehement against UD in his first post, and that Zakeri was so certain of Chaore's status as Scum in his
first serious post on the
second page. For which he
still has not given any reasoning for. Not to mention him vanishing for pretty much the entire second half of D1, which is ALSO suspicious as all hell.
Finally, a quick and interesting analysis of Chaore's posts#254 and #259. It's interesting that apart from Kanako, the people he thinks are Scum (Pesco, Carth) are either confirmed Town or likely Town, he thought UK was Town and that Sodium Hydroiodide was actually
doing something, he is inconclusive about literally
everyone else (this is hardly surprising, considering he's confirmed Dumb Scum),
and his list is missing Zakeri altogether. I'm extremely wary to attempt to glean information from the posting of a cornered Dumb Scum(TM), but this does put a small amount of additional suspicion onto both Zakeri
and UD.
Finally, Kerigis needs to
exist. You made
one post, voting for someone who was not the major wagon at the time, and did not post again for the rest of the entire day phase. That is not going to fly again. You are going to actually have to post regularly, as your current behaviour makes you suspicious as all hell. The fact that I even forgot you were playing until reading over Chaore's list to see if there was anything interesting that could be gleaned from it says something about your level of play in this game so far.
This post brought to you by the song
Dream Island Obsessional Park. And before anyone asks, no, I am not Shōnen Bat.
