Posting stuff I found interesting on re-read. I'm writing this overnight so people can respond early on because seriously 48 hour LYLO is pretty harsh. I don't have a section for Rex because I don't expect him to survive. If it turns out one of these people is town and scum kill them instead then just read that section of the post in an incredibly irritated tone of voice.
Here's how I assume scum gameplans would've went down (these are basically fluff so skip them if you don't care, I just think they're interesting and people can correct my approaches to why person X would be scum if I'm missing a key component of the case):
BT: Day 1, scum lurkaderp it up early on and Serela becomes a target. PX disappears to keep the Rex counterwagon afloat, BT realizes Serela is a sinking ship and makes a rushed jump for cred. They kill Pesco for being pretty townie. Day 2, PX doesn't give a fuck and BT's IHNN case is met with disapproval and even suspicion, so BT starts up a bus, but later pussies out and flip-flops when he gets the chance, resulting in Affinity's lynch. They realize that BT isn't gonna get IHNN mislynched and IHNN suspects both of them so they shoot him in the head. D3 BT and PX decide to hard bus eachother to distract town, after failing to mislynch me PX suicides early because he won't have the cred to carry the game if BT gets lynched. Omba gets shot due to general obvtownieness and BT is free to mislynch Kilga and buddy me the following day while coasting on cred.
Shadoweh: Deciding the tracker isn't a big enough threat, Shadoweh takes advantage of her Godfather abilities and busses Serela with a strong case as soon as possible because she realizes how likely to tie himself to his buddies and generally flail about, then shoots Pesco because not only does she think his VT claim was a cop counterclaim, he just naturally hates her and is the most likely to catch her later on. D2 she ignores the rising PX wagon with an Affinity vote and doesn't make much effort to IHNN is shot because he caught PX and his reactions to the Serela claim make sense for a cop, Rai being ignored because Shadoweh thinks he's too sheepy. Shadoweh then goes on to make fake-threats against PX while ignoring him and prays for a BT lynch - when that fails, her casemaking ability continues to drop due to lack of townie motivation and she votes me because :meta:.
Rai: Rai can't scumhunt and has no idea how to fake it, so he abuses cop immunity and tunnels on his buddies whereever possible. PX makes an early drop off Rai's wagon once it's solid despite continuing to admonish Raitaki's newbscum mistakes while Serela slightly disapproves but Raitaki is a newb so it's totally okay. N1 they shoot Pesco because he was being scary and attacking Raitaki's logic for (imo) sensible reasons. D2, Rai has no idea what to go for when the Omba case gets shot down, so he resorts to bussing and doesn't want to hammer off the wagon since he'd get less townie cred. IHNN dies for being on PX, as well as being the most probable power role at that point - Raitaki knows he's not the cop for obvious reasons. D3, PX flails suicidally and lets Rai bus him while ignoring Rai entirely because he knows Rai can probably carry the game with all the free passes town is handing out. D4 Rai's buddies are deaaaaaaaaaad so he has no idea what the fuck to do. Has clear priorities regarding me and Kilga but doesn't want to be judged so refrains from hammering and feigns cluelessness.
So, questioning / general thoughts.
~~~Shadoweh~~~
- Quality of cases seriously deteriorates over the course of the game which makes me wonder what happened. Compare her D1 super Serela scumpush to her following cases where she didn't seem to care as much and was in some cases waffly. I'd also like to know where she intended to take this questioning since she didn't apparently do much to read Kilga and I until yesterday.
- PX supporting Shadoweh lynch followed by hard buddying doesn't seem like how he'd treat a buddy so egh.
- Opposing PX wagon but not bothering to come up with your own opinion on PX. Why did you only read Affinity? Pretty similiar D2 to PX himself actually.
- Shadoweh, explain your thoughts on Kilga from ED3. You set yourself up like you were going to vote him and even said that you had your doubts on the BT case overall. Where the hell did the BT vote come from? I'm not seeing the thought process here.
- What happened to your prepared PX opinions in #559? Most of your D3 PX pressure turned out to be empty threats.
- Okay so Shadoweh had been posting about how I don't make sense as PX's buddy and don't look like scum all day only to drop this for the stupidest D4 meta case ever. Using meta while ignoring flips and whatnot to find a lynch on day 4 is downright awful by itself, but I wasn't even giving up and Shadoweh's vote on me was really, really bad. I can't understand what would compel her to drop everything she had considered up to that point and vote on incorrect meta of all things. #717 seemed to have like no effect on her conclusions either. A case could be made that she didn't actually give a fuck who got lynched since it wasn't going to be her.
~~~BT~~~
- This quote:
Notice that I never said I disagree with Serela's lynch; IHNN's jump could easily be a bus, also considering the inconsistency. I guess I just prefer IHNN if it happens that one of them are town.
seriously frustrates me whenever I read it. It's basically a classic way of scum trying to make sure they don't look distanced from the wagon on their buddy. Only it's not something I'd expect to be followed up with an unjustified bus vote. Ugh. BT, why was NekoRex magically okay again despite your earlier pressure when you made your Serela switch and why was IHNN bussing Serela?
- What happened to the throwaway Kilga case here during D3?
- Posting a point for lynching PX while unvoting makes the switch look better imo because why would scum do that if the point of the post was to go "yeah you have a point"? though might be good acting I guess argh.
- Also FWIW I ISO'd Barney and he basically never addressed me or Affinity unless we were pressuring him or he was talking about a mislynch's interaction with us. It contrasts with BT bussing basically everybody this game but it's been several months and his buddies in Psycho's Prophecy weren't Serela and PX, so uh. I don't really like meta but I'm just throwing that out there in case somebody wants to actually do something with it.
~~~Raitaki~~~
- If Raitaki wanted to make sure he was voting for scum, why didn't he just go to the archives and ctrl+F Serela's name to find out whether Serela was new or not? Even if he didn't think to, he had been reading a previous game that Serela was in as town and had a standard of Serela's paly to judge. Looks like abuse of newb card, plus his actual Serela vote wasn't particularly original. Note this post where he's still not scumhunting but would probably be voting Serela, only his Serela opinion is incredibly wishy-washy. Serela opinion isn't solidified until Serela wagon is at 3, overeager newbie Godfather might think taking advantage of this is a good idea. "torn between Omba and Serela" gives him flexibility to switch back to Omba should that wagon pick up too. Final Serela revote is yet again what everybody else said about the claim.
- PX giving up so easily D3 makes me think he wanted the game over with and thought his buddy was gonna carry anyway - Raitaki and Rex fit this description the best, but Rex scum requires some crazy shit going on in the scum quicktopic D1. Plus despite clearing Kilga / Shadoweh and deciding that therefore BT's buddy was me, PX did not consider Raitaki-scum at all even though Raitaki-BT would not have been hard to push.
- this:
However, YOUR claim gave a role description that a) didn't match any of the posted roles and b) had nothing to do with actually describing the role aside from stating that you're a townie
still bugs me because really look in your role PMs, it shouldn't describe anything about your role aside from stating that you're a townie. unless you're The Scum. given the environment Raitaki is from him pulling this as scum isn't too big of a stretch actually. There's no reason that Rai would have needed to rely on Pesco's reply to his NNR vote to decide whether NNR's vanilla claim made sense when Rai could have looked at his own damn PM.
- biggest problem here: all Raitaki's reads that aren't on scum come off incredibly weak. though he had conviction on Omba it was no big deal for him to switch off D1 and being Dead Set on getting Omba lynched D2 without bothering to read into others is forced and a damn convenient way of nabbing an easy mislynch when he apparently didn't care too much about his Omba case before. D2 when he's voting PX, he has pretty much everybody down as neutral or town, except IHNN and Affinity who he never gets around to re-reading. End of day conduct isn't too strong cuz he couldn't figure out whether he wanted to hammer Affinity or not which reads like he doesn't want to be responsible for hammering his buddy's counterwagon and letting PX off for a VT claim which Raitaki doesn't even trust is unexplained and questionable. D4 is where it gets bad again, he hasn't really had any opinions on anybody other than PX since Omba died, so now his priorities are jumbled... only he doesn't really seem to adhere to them at all. There was a point in the day where I was a better lynch than Kilga, and a point in the day where Kilga was second to BT in terms of Raitaki's preferred lynch. Pussying out and not being able to pick a player to hammer when he had a thought process he could cite is unbelievably bad and re-enforces that he's scared of taking responsibility for a hammer (D2). It's really weird how his ability to formulate priorities and opinions whatnot falls apart when he's not tunneling scum.
- Also D1 I find it weird that Serela keeps talking about Raitaki despite giving him passes and Raitaki not being a viable lynch target or major suspicion for Serela. Like why would he bring up a townie this way constantly even in posts where he didn't need to fluff.
So... is Raitaki scum? I'm not sold yet, but I think it's a lot more likely than we've been thinking (read: nobody considering him as a valid suspect at all yesterday). Keep in mind that he's never played here so we don't know how he handles his buddies, so him having Serela-level confirmation bias is totally viable especially given how vapid his opinions on non-scum are and how he loses his confidence when he could be hammering a townie. At the very least I'd like to have a dialogue about the option while I'm still considering BT / Shadoweh as well. Though I'm going to be very annoyed if it turns out to be BT.
I'm also wondering how he survived N2 despite blatantly faking a power role and voting scum two days in a row. Experience doesn't seem like a good justification for this when IHNN managed to bite it.
