Author Topic: Adorable Game of Mafia (Everyone wins!) (Read 48212 times)

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #690 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:11:34 PM »

Quote from: NekoNekoRex on August 11, 2012, 09:05:51 PM

Eh? What's this have to do with me now? I read Shadoweh as town, and BT as Leaning Town. Only scum left are between HW/Kilga

I was referencing a situation where huh what gets lynched D3 and flips town, which would mean your suspicions would have to go elsewhere, very possibly in the BT/PX direction.

Quote from: NekoNekoRex on August 11, 2012, 09:05:51 PM

Cop can't town clear in a game with a confirmed Godmother, Kilga.

This is true and one of my points in that post! Thank you for agreeing! The clearance, however, refers to the cop themselves, because they can self-clear by claiming (unless scum felt like counterclaiming).

Quote from: NekoNekoRex on August 11, 2012, 09:05:51 PM

Also what the fuq is a dichotomy?

Choice between exactly two things. Yes/No, True/False, etc. Always/Sometimes/Never is not a dichotomy because there are three choices.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #691 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:12:42 PM »

Wait, haven't responded to Kilga's post yet, but just noticed this while re-reading:

When BT switched to Serela, he had basically no telegraphed opinions on any of the wagons. He could have easily gotten Rex to L-1 by voting then having Serela post a Not Me over Me, or I guess pushed for Omba's lynch if he wanted to so that he wouldn't be on the same counterwagon as PX (less effective though). Voting Serela was essentially throwing Serela away completely and I believe that scum would want to avoid a D1 scumlynch whenever possible since townies are fickle creatures and could easily waffle away the following day. Plus they rationalize enough that BT wouldn't be a surefire lynch after swingvote even if Serela was lynched the next day.

This might make sense if BT's other buddy was on Serela too, but we already know this wasn't the case.

So uh, I really don't think BT is the scum here. Given D3 then if he is then this is like super Serelaffinity-level bussing when it's not necessary at all and possibly even detrimental to scum which is pretty woah.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #692 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:16:54 PM »

Scum have bussed D1 and won the game. In fact, in Invasion, two of VGT's buddies were on him for a while and the one that wasn't ended up hammering. Avoiding a D1 scumlynch is desirable, but if there's a reasonable chance of it happening I imagine they'd want to get at least one person on the wagon.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #693 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:17:55 PM »

Actually BT had said stuff about NNR, just not Serela/Omba. Negative stuff too, which actually makes me feel stronger about this.

Though actually now I'm waffling about this because Kilga cut + scum going for a superbussing game is significantly more understandable when their buddies are Serela and PX.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #694 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:19:09 PM »

Quote

When BT switched to Serela, he had basically no telegraphed opinions on any of the wagons. He could have easily gotten Rex to L-1 by voting then having Serela post a Not Me over Me, or I guess pushed for Omba's lynch if he wanted to so that he wouldn't be on the same counterwagon as PX (less effective though). Voting Serela was essentially throwing Serela away completely and I believe that scum would want to avoid a D1 scumlynch whenever possible since townies are fickle creatures and could easily waffle away the following day. Plus they rationalize enough that BT wouldn't be a surefire lynch after swingvote even if Serela was lynched the next day.

And that's why BT reads to me as town right now

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #695 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:20:28 PM »

Also, NNR, if you could outline what about my defenses you don't like (assuming they aren't based on misunderstandings like the second thing you mentioned), I'd be happy to address them for you.

Going out for a while, but will have my phone and a charger, so I will try to keep posting because I love you all that much <3

Fake Edit: NNR, read my most recent post.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #696 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:24:07 PM »

Quote

Scum have bussed D1 and won the game. In fact, in Invasion, two of VGT's buddies were on him for a while and the one that wasn't ended up hammering. Avoiding a D1 scumlynch is desirable, but if there's a reasonable chance of it happening I imagine they'd want to get at least one person on the wagon.

That would make more sense if my case wasn't neck and neck with Serela, to the point that any one vote could have made the difference. There was very huge pushing for my wagon, you see. If Serela hadn't screwed up her being scum completely I was pretty well assured I was doomed. I think scum are greedier then to jump on Serela in the middle of this.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #697 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:24:20 PM »

Considering his actions, though, scum!BT would have decided to superbus D1 when he could have probably gotten away with lynching NNR, bussed again D2 when it was detrimental only to pull back at the last possible moment, then bussed a third time D3 knowing that people suspected him, were pushing a possible PX/BT and for all he knew would probably find his late D2 suspect after PX's flip.

This really just looks suicidal to me. All-or-nothing play is a possibility I guess but he had no way of knowing he was gonna lynch the tracker D2 even if he was the Godfather. Fuckit I still don't think BT is the scum.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #698 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:29:30 PM »

NNR: The competing D1 wagons in Invasion were also neck-and-neck for most of the day, as I recall that game.

HW: BT may also have been hoping NNR would get lynched anyway. I describe how reasonable this possibility it in my D3 vote for him. Serela lynch wasn't a guarantee before or after BT's vote: even with Shadoweh's case, the case on NNR was good enough that you and Pesco preferred it.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #699 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:37:11 PM »

Quote

More suspicion based on what a flipped scum said about a suspect instead of the other way around.

Flipped scum only say scummy things. Players in the game can either be "scum who say scummy things" or "town who say stupid things". Therefore, scum posts are more valuable then town posts.

Also tbh I don't think BT is clever enough or skilled enough to be able to pull an Ultrabus at all, and I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be in his best interest to do so under any circumstance sans being forced to.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #700 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:40:14 PM »

Scum posts can also be made with the fallout from that scum's lynch in mind. I'm pretty sure that, in every single game where I've played scum, at least one scum has gone out of their way to say things they knew would incriminate a specific townie should that scum get lynched.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #701 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:52:26 PM »

But that's reaching far to prove your point

Which says the same about aot of your points, actually. That's what akes them less credibe. Your cases reach really far to try and incriminate players. Yesterday's "One scum between Shadoweh/BT (assuming I remember right)" was Mr Fantastic levels of arm reaching considering they were both important components of my D1 lynch, as opposed to the far more obvious " at least one between PX/HW" that most other players (including myself) were focused on.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #702 on:** August 11, 2012, 09:53:28 PM »

*of Serela's D1 lynch

im still aive and in the game i swear

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #703 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:03:46 PM »

NNR: How is it a stretch if it happens pretty much all the time? >_> It happens often enough that it needs to be seriously considered. Scum do it precisely because they know people will think that way. That's why their words aren't credible in that regard. Remember, like you said, scum words are scum-motivated.

I'm assuming the position you're thinking of is the Shadoweh/HW thing, which I'll admit certainly looks like it's wrong. How was Shadoweh instrumental to your D1 wagon, though, and how does that make "a lot of my points" a stretch? That was hardly my only attempt at scumhunting.

Fake edit: HW wasn't instrumental to the Serela wagon, so the point is moot regardless.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #704 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:11:03 PM »

Quote from: Kilgamayan on August 11, 2012, 10:03:46 PM

I'm assuming the position you're thinking of is the Shadoweh/HW thing, which I'll admit certainly looks like it's wrong. How was Shadoweh instrumental to your D1 wagon, though, and how does that make "a lot of my points" a stretch? That was hardly my only attempt at scumhunting.

Fake edit: HW wasn't instrumental to the Serela wagon, so the point is moot regardless.

Oh, so I did remember wrong. I guess that makes my above post a bit more moot then.
Finding posts in a 23 page topic without any links in the OP makes finding cases harder

I still think your case on BT is awfully far-reaching though. If you think there's scum between HW/Shadoweh why aren't you voting HW right now?

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #705 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:17:31 PM »

I don't think there's scum between them now, since PX flipped and I think BT is the last scum.

What about the BT case is a stretch? Give me specific things so I can discuss them with you. For reference, the original case is in #564.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #706 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:18:47 PM »

And before anyone asks, yes, this means I believe that original post about Shadoweh/HW was incorrect and I don't believe it to be the case anymore.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #707 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:20:39 PM »

So with that logic, you'd have no options left if BT flipped town. That's not very secure Town thinking, Kilga. Why don't you have a LYLO option?

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #708 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:26:05 PM »

Second paragraph of #667 addresses that question already.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #709 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:33:08 PM »

That's a BT post, not a LYLO option.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #710 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:36:49 PM »

Whoops. It's actually #677, sorry.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #711 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:37:36 PM »

Here, have a link. I can't possibly screw up the number that way.

http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,13138.msg871180.html#msg871180

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #712 on:** August 11, 2012, 10:45:43 PM »

Why don't you think HW is more viable scum? HW as part of a scum voting block isn't anything new, considering the last few games. What convinces you that this game is different?

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #713 on:** August 11, 2012, 11:00:30 PM »

Assuming you're asking about HW vs. BT, I think HW's votes have been, in general, better justified and more sincere.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #714 on:** August 11, 2012, 11:06:13 PM »

I meant in a HW vs Shadoweh

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #715 on:** August 11, 2012, 11:08:06 PM »

Although I guess HW vs BT applies too in this situation

Uhhhh, I'm running out of things to ask.

What's your opinion on HW given that he's voting you over other players right now?

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #716 on:** August 11, 2012, 11:29:26 PM »

Well, if you meant HW vs. Shadoweh, I do think HW is the more viable scum at present. >_>

I still think he's much townier than BT, and even though he's voting me I think he's at least showing decent rationale, and doesn't seem dead-set on seeing me die. His speculations about the scum team interactions are at least understandable from a town HW point of view (even if I know they're wrong).

Shadoweh · « **Reply #717 on:** August 12, 2012, 02:52:27 AM »

Ooooh my god you guys cut me 44 times. Rereading PX for relevant opinions:
I remember Conqueror saying PX had a habit of only answering questions from his scummates.
There's something interesting I can note immediately from reading PX. He never read Kilga's posts. He answers some of huh what's questions, some of Neko's, but when he's saying how good Kilga's case is he never well.. brings up anything about the case. This is both suspicious because holy shit he never reads Kilga or answers anything he says, and not suspicious because.. he's not reading what Kilga says.
In contrast to huh what and BT, whose cases he acknowledged and answered questions from. Hmm. It's possible he's guilty of the same crime as Serela this time, just ignoring his buddies.

Quote

Serela (5): NekoNekoRex, Shadoweh, IHNN, Raitaki, BT
NekoNekoRex (5): PX, Pesco, huh what, Omba, Serela
Omba (2): Kilgamayan, Affinity

Affinity (5): Shadoweh, PX, huh what, Omba, BT
PX (4): IHNN, NNR, Kilgamayan, Raitaki
BT (1): Affinity

PX (3): huh what, BT, Raitaki
BT (3): PX, Kilgamayan, Shadoweh
huh what (2): NekoNekoRex, Omba

(I'm ignoring the exact end of day votecounts because ~~Edible didn't put them up~~ they were bum rushes after both scum were confirmed.) For huh what to be scum, it would mean that the scum were allergic to bussing until Day 3 when huh what decided to throw PX off a cliff. For Kilga it would mean he dodged the wagon entirely Day 1, then SUPERBUS, then who is this PX it is obv BT and Shadoweh. The only difference between BT and huh what is Day 1 wagons. BT was stubborn about OMGUS on IHNN, while huh what was stubborn about the newbie being EVOL. huh what was part of the Omba wagon with Kilga though. The other thing about Day 3 is if PX was suiciding I don't think scum would have been defending him at that point, it would make them look awful when he went LOLSCUM.

Mmmm. I'm going to read all the cuts while I waffle like a tree made of Serelas. If we didn't have another mislynch I'd be freaking out right now.

Re: IHNN kill, he was after PX too and it would make sense for the stronger scum to kill in defense of him since he was the weak link. That IHNN might have been the cop is like another 4 stars.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #718 on:** August 12, 2012, 03:06:54 AM »

(Also I hate using irl excuses but if it weren't so far into the game I would consider replacing out due to not being sure if I'll have a connection at any point in time. I apologize for basically leaving you guys to argue with each other.)

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #719 on:** August 12, 2012, 04:38:47 AM »

Going to bed. I guess this is the point where I start rehashing some things, since my dialogues seem to have stagnated? I don't much like repeating myself but I guess I could ask the following question.

HW/NNR: Out of curiosity, what do you two think of BT having zero case on either of the Day 2 lynchees despite voting for both of them? Remember that his one point against Affinity was a misinterpretation of part of Affinity's case and he said nothing about why Serela was scummy.

(Either of you might have already addressed this, in which case feel free to link/provide post number.)