Okay, yeah, I misunderstood Rai's vote on Rex. With that in mind the switch actually reflects on him as eager newbtown.
Can we massclaim Vanilla names just because? I'm a pile of baby otters, Cookies & Cream Townie.
So I obviously don't buy into a HW/Shadowh false dichotomy. I'm not sure where scum would have gotten the impression IHNN is the cop, and the kill would still make sense for a scumpair that realized he couldn't be lynched and found him a threat - BT/PX, for example. It's also possible that while scum didn't suspect cop-Nameless with such confidence they'd kill him on that along, it was a combination of power role hunting and him being an actual threat for whatever reason. As for why Shadoweh and I are alive, I obviously wouldn't have been killed either night because I looked lynchable after the end-of-day wagons. No explanation for Shadoweh though, but it's possible scum has been looking for PRs the most since PRs are basically unlynchable if they claim before LYLO. Also, I'm not sure why Kilga is completely dropping PX in favor of this.
##Vote: PX (L-4)
Last two days, he's been in positions where he can coast on (presumable) town wagons near deadline because he was on them early, then let other people take the heat.
D1 Rex rises up as a counterwagon to Serela. PX comes back, but avoids posting and taking a stance when it mattered the most because he's "too tired". I believe this excuse is legitimate, but based on my past experiences as scum I also think scum are more likely to take advantage of physical state to not bother attempting to post at all. Also interesting: Neko vote comes right as IHNN wagon is falling apart, possibility of leaving sinking ship that had no chance of becoming a counterwagon.
D2 PX doesn't pursue any lynches or consider options other than Affinity. As scum there's no reason for him to if he thinks he can get by on minimal content - Affinity was the counterwagon to him so obviously he can't switch to anybody else.
His D2 looks really awful in hindsight, though. He had multiple suspects D1 (Rai, IHNN) who he dropped completely without a word so he could tunnel on Affinity. It's as if he decided they weren't lynchable anymore after Serela's flip, but the rest of the people Serela's flip made lynchable were either difficult for him to attack (Kilga and I) or a quickwagon he wanted to oppose for towncred (PX).
Re-reading D1: I'm realizing that Shadoweh bussing Serela doesn't actually look too probable, since she had a solid case on IHNN which she could have kept pushing even after his unvote if he wanted to. Had she left Serela alone it was entirely possible people would give him a pass on "well, it's Serela". Basically see what Kilga said about scum having to be suicidally moronic to slam their rolecop with such a good case in this set-up, only make it "suicidally moronic to slam their rolecop with such a good case in this set-up when they had a townie they could push easily with little retribution".
Affinity vote looks subliminally telegraphed from her D1 posts where she talks about him too, but not in the blatant "My thought process is linear and consistent, please don't vote me" scum way either. I don't find the "scum pony" point very strong, either - I get the impression it was just rhetoric to convince BT to switch. After Serela flipped scum a townie would want to re-assess whether they thought he was being bussed or not instead of just assuming.
So I'm not as sold on a Shadoweh wagon as I thought I'd be. At the moment I'd be more interested in lynching Kilga for ~PUSHING A FALSE DICHOTOMY~ while failing to consider options that would make it invalid, and other oddities like giving Rai towncred for being on the PX wagon when we don't have PX's flip. The false dichotomy just looks too much like a bullshit saving throw for scum coming out of a day where they were likely to get PoE'd for me to buy into it. If Shadoweh is town and scum!Kilga gets her and I mislynched back to back, he wins.
