Author Topic: Umineko Mafia - Day 4  (Read 70707 times)

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #180 on: July 17, 2009, 10:19:38 AM »
"Believing oneself to be perfect is often the sign of a delusional mind.
Small words, from a small being, trying to attack what it doesn't understand!"


(Star Trek, in *my* Umineko? It's more likely than you think!)


Day 1 Vote Count - 18 hours remaining:
pesco (3): - Roukanken, Zakeri, Nietz, Carthrat
donut (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius, Dorian, Affinity, Kiro
Dorian (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Serpentarius, donut
Nuclear Fusion (1): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut, Pesco
Nietz (0): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (0): - Carthrat
Affinity (0): - Dorian
Kiro (0): - donut, pesco
Carthrat (0): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Not voting: ZaknutZakeri, donut

Edit:

Quote from: Roukanken
Explains the aspirin reference, but there's also the fact that Natsuhi is a likely suspect for the criminal in Episode 1. So...yeah.
All flavour is, as such, flavour, and should be treated accordingly. Also, happy birthday!
« Last Edit: July 17, 2009, 11:57:54 AM by Alice Margatroid »
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #181 on: July 17, 2009, 11:11:43 AM »
Lies! I thought you were 18 last year.

Happy birthday, hugs and kisses and abuse and beatings ;D

18 hours are going to be gone real quick so get voting if you're still Doing A Trial Balance Form.

4 votes with 3 names on me?

Nietz

  • NEETz
  • *
  • Normal Person
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #182 on: July 17, 2009, 04:26:29 PM »
I don't like Nietz for his justification for not finding donut's switch to NF scummy; it smacks of WIFOM when he says he doesn't think it's a good idea to bus, but there is also a simple oversight, since NF is not necessarily scum.  Scum donut may have just been trying to pretend having a stance.
As I said, I don't think that action was scummy per se. I can see a townie being eager to vote for a scummy-looking player to get the pressure off him. I don't think that clears donut of everything else though, his overall play has been weak and not very coherent. I'd still put him in the top 3 suspicion list, along with pesco and NF.

I have aspirins and I'm not going to be sharing them. Aspirins are headache tablets if you're not sure what I'm talking about.
Quote
Natsuhi, wife of Krauss. A jerkass bitch with well-meaning intentions. And I have aspirins for use at night. Aspirins contain salicylic acid and ease headaches, that's all there is to it.
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

Nuclear Fusion

  • Powered by fury
  • I AM ALWAYS ANGRY
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #183 on: July 17, 2009, 04:48:15 PM »
NF really likes to attack people who vote for whoever he's voting for. That seems intuitively uncool.
I like to attack everybody  8) It just happens that this game I've attacked people for what I thoughts was a stupid bandwagon attempt

Anyway, I think today requires another read of the thread in it's completeness. So... if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go do that.
If anybody has a good anger quote, let me know and it'll be the new sig

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #184 on: July 17, 2009, 05:16:18 PM »
Quote
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

In Shrine Festival, I wrote my own flavour with a bit of mod-manipulation. Look who's in charge of this game and tell me if that's even possible. You're definitely grasping with this point.

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #185 on: July 17, 2009, 06:00:45 PM »
In Shrine Festival, I wrote my own flavour with a bit of mod-manipulation. Look who's in charge of this game and tell me if that's even possible. You're definitely grasping with this point.

Hey now! Don't make it look like I colluded with you during SF Mafia because I did not. I had a disclaimer at the very beginning that flavor was independent of the game. You were the one who tried to slip that by Town and you were called out on it (even if one of the people calling you out was your scumbuddy) and was lynched. Why you're bringing this up is rather pointless to the grand scheme of this game.

Back to the game: Pesco: Who would you vote for now? It looks like there won't be enough votes for the NF lynch today. You're being strictly defensive now and not scumhunting for a case other than NF.

Serpentarius: Your argument about lurkers is compelling, but let's analyze what's going on in this game. Donut's latest posts are a sign he's being less responsive to the pressure on him and he's ducking from writing up anything. I'd label him a lurker now. Nuclear Fusion has been the same as well, ever since the copclaim. And Pesco's rather clipped posts just now also looks a bit like he's trying to limp through Day 1. All of this is of comparable lurkiness to the case on Dorian you're advocating. However, Dorian is scummy mostly for his non-contribution which to me, weighs less than the cases of the others who are scummy for parts of their activity and THEN are becoming non-contributive. Dorian might not shape up, but then, neither might Donut, NF, or Pesco. That's how I see it for this Day 1.

As for the part about letting lurkers pass, I'll have to disagree with that. Xan was a Town lurker lynched Day 1 in Crawl. Alice was a Scum lurker (if I recall correctly, he hadn't said much that game) set to be lynched Day 1 in GWU which was averted by his fake Doc claim. In recent games, I think MotK has been willing to punish those who are badly lurking, but it's always relative to the actions of those who are actively scummy.

I just had a funny revelation that the spat between Rou and Pesco is not all that dissimilar from the one Nietz and I had last game. Both are too bullheaded to look away from each other and it's distracting the rest of the players. Looks like Rou is gone for the rest of the Day, but if you can't vote Pesco, who's your next candidate? I will disagree with Carthrat and say whether because you refuse to or are unable to, you've tunneled onto Pesco and it's becoming a detriment to Town as I only see passing remarks about Donut which in general is related to the original argument.

Zak's vote will be nice when he gets to it, the sooner the better of course.

@Alice: You need to remove Donut from the list of those who are "not voting".

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #186 on: July 17, 2009, 07:21:48 PM »
I think Nietz is pretty cool for my vote after NF. Rou's vote is easy to see why. I don't see much reason behind Nietz' vote, all he's got is that he's been saying he would vote me for a while.

Quote from: Nietz vote post
For all the space that it took in the last page, the pesco/Rou argument did little to nothing to advance the situation. pesco's situation, that is. All I get from you is that you are not willing to act pro-town in this game. And judging by past experience, you're being the exact kind of anti-town you are when being scum.
Quote from: Most recent
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

That's not a lot of pressing to validate going for my lynch.

Quote from: Nietz vote post
As I mentioned, I don't like Fusion's claim, specially in light of his play so far, and I think waiting to see how tomorrow plays out will likely only bring WIFOM. Even so, I'm still a little more inclined to lynch with pesco and deal with Nf tomorrow

He mentions that NF tomorrow is going to be a bunch of WIFOM, so why is he willing to only deal with it tomorrow when things are going to be more confusing?

And according to the voting record, Nietz has never gone near NF.

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #187 on: July 17, 2009, 07:28:37 PM »
Quote from: Pesco
Rou, why do I have to fight with you even when I'm town. Prove to me that there hasn't been any tunnel bias in your opinions.
like this. But I trace Rou's arguments and his train of thought seems very natural, soooo.

##Vote: Pesco, here.

Neitz is kinda chilling and just hanging out, waiting for the right moment to pick one of his two targets without committing. I'm very leery of him at present. Kiro also loses points for saying he's willing to lynch UF despite his claim.

Carthrat's vote can be summarized by 'I'll take Rou's side on this, so vote Pesco it is'.

Both these votes essentially stem from agreeing with Rou only, Nietz appears to be a worse offender as he's been caught slacking.

Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #188 on: July 17, 2009, 08:09:24 PM »
Donut: Are you comfortable with Voting Dorian if it leads to his Lynch? Consider all of the implications of Dorian Flipping Town And Flipping Scum before you answer this.

Neitz and Carthrat: Same Question, Except about Pesco.

I'll be on until about 7:30 p.m. EST. I won't be back until after Phase Change when I leave today, but I'll finalize my vote at that time.

More Serious Business to come soon.

nintendonut888

  • So those that live now, pledge on your fists and souls
  • Leave a sign of your life, no matter how small...
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #189 on: July 17, 2009, 08:36:34 PM »
Er, sorry. I've been a bit not paying attention to the game today. I'm only a bit behind, so I'll catch up before the deadline.
nintendonut888: Hey Baity. I beat the high score for Sanae B hard on the score.dat you sent me. X3
Baity: For a moment, I thought you broke 1.1billion. Upon looking at my score.dat, I can assume that you destroyed the score that is my failed (first!) 1cc attempt on my first day of playing. Congratulations.

[19:42] <Sapz> I think that's the only time I've ever seen a suicide bullet shoot its own suicide bullet

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #190 on: July 17, 2009, 09:16:35 PM »
I'll be sporadically checking the thread till deadline. Have to think about Pesco as a whole again if I want to consider changing to him. Dorian response would be good of course.

Nuclear Fusion

  • Powered by fury
  • I AM ALWAYS ANGRY
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #191 on: July 17, 2009, 09:23:09 PM »
None of this is in order, by the way.

Zak points ? Ad Hominim my ass. I?m allowed to say that I think something is dumb, and I?m allowed to say that I think an idea is stupid. This is not ad hominim. Learn what ad hominim means. As hominim would be me saying something like ?I think ?you- are an idiot.?
Hey, I didn?t say that, I said the idea was stupid. That is no ad hom.
Defending looks scummy ? I didn?t know that, actually. I disagree with you. Not defending is equally scummy. Offense is not a good defense because the accusations still stand. An accused criminal doesn?t say ?That guy is a bigger crook?. The accused has to defend himself before he can help find real criminals.
I used some analysis. Minor, I?ll admit, but at the time, I did use some analysis. It was at the beginning to the freaking day, when there was nothing to go on. Now, I?d reiterate those same points. Other people have agreed with me too since then. Are they not using analysis either?
Bugger off. I?ll be the first to admit that I have a different style of playing. I think I mentioned it almost right away. I?m just as likely to be town as you are, from where anybody else is standing. All you have is your analysis, and your analysis can be way off. That?s how mafia works. But still, you?d rather lynch a proposed power role on day one, then something else, if only because you feel your analysis is perfect? No. That?s a terrible idea. If anything, you lynch me tomorrow after I give my investigation (if I end up claiming somebody is town). Then you find out I?m telling the truth, and you have a cleared townie. Either that, or I fish up scum at night. Those are the best two options for the town at the moment. The worst is that I am lying, fake claim somebody is town, you lynch me, and I turn up scum. Then you get nothing for trouble, except a lynched scum on day 2, which is still pretty good. So, it comes down to it ? which is the bigger risk for town? Believing me? Or assuming I?m lying?
Scum hunting ? I?ll get right on that.



My claim ? yes, that is a giving up sort of remark, I know. And I did give up. I gave up trying to prove to you that your arguments against more were ridiculous, because I just didn?t feel like repeating the same thing over and over again. The claim was the only option I had left, and so I went with it.
Mafia is Serious Business. I take it seriously, but I?m light hearted about it at the same time. The claim ?isn?t- a free pass, and I know that. I?ve been in this situation before. I get one night to find scum, and even if I succeed, then you guys could just make a case that I sold a scum buddy. I can?t win and I know it, so I?m just going to be going at face value. This is what I do, you don?t like it? Tough.

Zak - Oh man, I forgot about your accidental edit early in the game. Also voted Pesco.
His first real post and second ? they are doozies. He goes through several people he feels are scummy, and gives reasons why he believes this. Top of his lists are Myself, Pesco, and Donut. It?s post 89, and I recommend reading it for yourself. Notes that he didn?t catch any town yet, and caught three scum. Interesting way of phrasing it. He thinks Pesco is scum-pesco and I just blundered into suspicions and am trying to blunder out. Thinks donut could be okay.
Notes I make a baseless accusation of Cart. Tells me why my vote matters so much even if I don?t think it matters where it stands right now. Tells me to actively hunt scum. Tells me to stop being ?cute? with the Serp gambit. Thinks I?m the one who started calling the donut voting a bandwagon (I wasn?t, it was actually Neitz, but hey cool, misrep).

Cart ?(Agreeing with you on the don?t lynch the cop thing. I?m also getting suspicious of people who want me lynched today. I can understand people who think I am scummy. But to actively want to the lynch the claimed cop on day 1 is a big problem in my mind.)
Addresses Kiro, saying why he thinks Zakeri is somebody to watch out for. Doesn?t like how Pesco has a reputation for being lynched day 1, and think it?s not wise to lynch him. Thinks Donut and Pesco have only been joking. Thinks donut should have an opinion now that it?s known that he and kiro weren?t just joking.
Says it?s a problem to give town credit based on long posts without addressing content. Says I?m handicapping my own bandwagon and getting mad at Neitz for weak votes. Mad at me for prodding Dorian, cause Dorian is ?clearly clueless?. (Okay, this is making me suspicious of Dorian and Cart again? notice how he jumps to Dorian?s defense right away, and also notice how he seems to have some knowledge of who is town.)
Gives me four things to chew on. 1) ? Some mistakes aren?t indicative of scum. 2) why he thinks people are suspicious of me ? it?s because I didn?t change my vote until well after my point of contention, it seems. 3) Explains again that dorian is a lackluster player and 4) I shouldn?t be mad that they ruined my master plan of catching potential scum Serp.
Explains that Dorian is just weak, not townie or scummy. That?s the third time he?s jumped on defending Dorian.


Serp ? (Geez, why do I find myself agreeing with you so much? I think it?s because you?re making the same observations I?ve made and then NOT CREDITING ME FOR THEM. I?m noticing a penalization in effort as well, as you put it. And if it doesn?t fit somebody else?s definition of effort, than it must be not scum hunting, which seems to be the worst sin you can commit in mafia on this board.
I?m going to throw in that I have a lynch all lurkers policy. Dorian is not posting enough content for the amount of posting he has done. This is lurking. This is a problem.)
Serious points on his posts now ? thinks RVS ended when I confirmed voted donut. Explains when RVS ends. Is frustrated that few people commented on my case for donut. (I never had a case on donut, though? so ya) Thinks donut?s conduct is weird. Notes donut voted Kiro, that kiro explained his vote, that donut agreed, but that donut didn?t change his vote off kiro. Agrees with Neitz. Says the case on Kiro is fishy. Says that people?s issues with me are only that it?s different techniques. Thinks Neitz and Affinty are scumhunting. Votes Donut. (I disagree here, it does not look like affinity was scum hunting at all. It looks like he took an easy target and rolled with it.) Lists donut and
Pesco as his top scum choices, and tells me to throw my vote around.
Explains that scum should want to extend RVS to waste day. Cross posts with me.

Donut ? Man, I really can?t tell if your first post is RVS or not. Mostly because it?s a response to me voting you. RVS, not really. DATBF ? oh hells ya that post is.
Notes that Pesco ended the RVS phase. Finds this scummy. Also notes that Kiro is voting Cart because of a vote in the RVS. Votes Kiro and demands a better reason for Kiro?s vote on Cart.
Explains why he didn?t respond to my vote on him. Assumed it was RVS. Then explains why he was on Pesco ? just to stir up some conversation. Hits himself when he gets the explanation about the difference between Pesco?s and Kiro?s votes. Does not unvote, however.
Thinks Cart is reaching, and agrees that his vote should go off kiro. Donut unvotes. He also expresses his inability to play mafia well. Seems generally curious about why scum want to end the RVS.
Cautions me. Says don?t be fooled by walls of text. Still wants more clarification on stuff.
Votes me, thinks my post scream ?WTF?. Asks if I would lynch a suspicious person for some value. (Hint ? I would. But I never found Serp suspicious, so in regards to the post and context of what I was saying, his accusation is coming out of nowhere). EBWOP: - Everything I say he finds suspicious.

Pesco ? Your claim. I feel like that?s almost a doc role. And I?m sure somebody will kill me for suggesting that. But I also feel that if you were actually a real doc, you would know it and actively say it. So I?m troubled by your claim. Deeply troubled.
I?m glad Neitz made that post of his. Pesco ?did- breadcrumb his role. Breadcrumbing is powerful for analysis and safety. So? I?m inclined to be a little upset about this, because on one hand I like breadcrumbing as a townie tell, but at the same time I know mafia will use it as well to protect themselves. Urg.
Cool, your first post doesn?t even have a reason for your random vote.
Post 42 ? this is the first serious post in the game, I?m going to say. Srs bsns. Ya, everything before this seems mostly garbage, but Pesco starts up the real action by calling donut jumpy? did anybody else think donut was jumpy? I certainly didn?t.
Post 51 ? An asprin reference. He?s tripping on it, he says.
Votes Kiro, and underlines the part of ?there?s a case of Donut trying too hard on NF by NF.? Wants an explanation of that.
Says he has seen no scum intent in donut, so is leaving donut alone.


Affinity ? You should read more Oscar Wilde
Wonders why I have a problem with a weak reason. Wonders why I didn?t vote Neitz if I don?t like Neitz?s weak reason and I didn?t have a serious vote beforehand. Votes me. Thinks pesco is avoiding questions.



Rouk ? You?ve had it in for pesco from the beginning of this game, it looks like. 2:22, aye?
Asks about high profile. Note how long it took for Pesco to get the game started.
Can?t understand Pesco, right from the get go. Says he?d probably vote Neitz for the high profile comment.
Defends donut for against Neitz. Donut?s post was ?false severetiy?? then he gets on Donut?s case for accusing Pesco of ending the RVS.
Bothred by the Donut/pesco conversation. Notes they dropped their cases too easily and then both picked on Kiro.
Notes deflection isn?t a good thing. Accuses Pesco of deflecting?
Doesn?t like pesco?s logic, cause it can work in the same way against pesco.
Notes dorian didn?t have much content in his first serious post.

Kiro ? Votes Cart? for not trying to get on the following cases ? Myself, Pesco, and donut. (Here, this is amusing. Notice how the game started on the same three people, and haven?t really shifted to anybody else? This is not good.)
Defends his vote on Cart by saying that cart?s second vote has enough reason behind to be considered a real vote. Challenge?s donut to disagree with him.

Dorian ? Hey, there?s somebody who does read Oscar Wilde. And even tells people to do so.
Thinks I?m suspicious because I don?t like the bandwagon I?m on. Says he needs to stop being lazy, also.
Apologizes when I explain to him that my vote was before the wagon and was RVS. Accepts this, then says he is tired. Thinks he is clueless, not pesco.

Neitz ? Starts the whole ?donut wants a bandwagon on himself? theory. This seems to follow a logic that early bandwagons fail, and since scum hop bandwagons, being bandwagoned as scum at the beginning is a good idea.
Explains high profile as ? Donut not responding to my case against him? and long and over exaggerated joke posts. Admits this is weak. Still assumes that Donut wants to be bandwagoned. Neitz wants to start a bandwagon.
Explains why he believes donut would want a bandwagon. So that we can ?forget? about donut later. This never happened.
Explains why he was suspicious of Donut? for getting mad at the yuyuko doll joke. Tells me why he finds bandwagons useful on day 1. Thinks donut has been reacting poorly to pressure. Something about ninjas? Finds pesco acting strange.
If anybody has a good anger quote, let me know and it'll be the new sig

Nuclear Fusion

  • Powered by fury
  • I AM ALWAYS ANGRY
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #192 on: July 17, 2009, 09:27:19 PM »
EBWOP: the tl;dr version.

Also - that only goes up to post 100. Post 101 is a long pesco vote, and I was running out of time there.

From what I see in those first 100 posts, however... I see Dorian not doing much of anything, I see Cart jumping to dorian's defense whenever he can, I see Affinity doing almost nothing also. I see Serp generally trying to hunt scum. I see donut and pesco getting conflated for almost no reason, mostly because of Rouk and Neitz. Rouk and Neitz also seem to be generally searching for scum. Zakeri seems happy to just jump on whatever looks shiny at the moment. And Kiro... I don't even know what he is doing exactly.

So my scum list right now is Dorian, Cart, and Affinity. Pesco is following it up only because I don't like his claim, which is a terrible reason to want to lynch somebody I think. Leaning townie on Neitz, Serp, and Rouk, and feeling pretty mediocre on the rest.

So ya, my vote stands on Dorian. And I'm out of time ;_; Those first 100 posts took way longer than I thought they would, I'll want to continue this if I make it to day 2. 
If anybody has a good anger quote, let me know and it'll be the new sig

Nietz

  • NEETz
  • *
  • Normal Person
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #193 on: July 17, 2009, 09:32:35 PM »
That's not a lot of pressing to validate going for my lynch.
If being consistently anti-town ands scummy is not a reason to lynch, I don't know what is.
Quote
He mentions that NF tomorrow is going to be a bunch of WIFOM, so why is he willing to only deal with it tomorrow when things are going to be more confusing?
I was, and still am willing to lynch him today, but apparently a lot of people think it's better to wait due to his claim. I'm fine with lynching pesco instead, he's bad enough today and it's not like he is going to be more trustworthier tomorrow either.

Quote
And according to the voting record, Nietz has never gone near NF.
I don't even know what  "going near" it's supposed to mean. My only serious votes were donut and pesco, after considering between him and NF.

Nuclear Ninja: Oh great, Wall of Tex of Doom, mostly summarizing player's actions and repeating his previous points. I'll try to re-read it later. (By the way, "Ninja" it's when someone posts ahead of you while you're writing your post.)

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #194 on: July 17, 2009, 09:46:59 PM »
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #195 on: July 17, 2009, 10:20:37 PM »
That's not a lot of pressing to validate going for my lynch.
If being consistently anti-town ands scummy is not a reason to lynch, I don't know what is.

You've used 'anti-town' a bit, but never outright said scummy. Why only tack on the word now?

Those may be reason enough for lynch, but what you've given on me is IIoA.

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #196 on: July 17, 2009, 10:32:50 PM »
Pesco: Is Roukan scum in your eyes because he is pursuing you? Please clarify your feelings on that.

I'm drawing a blank on further questions to ask you and I hate this type of a question, but:

Go over your scum team theory and how they all fit together.

Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #197 on: July 17, 2009, 11:12:54 PM »
Well, I wanted to post more in depth analysis since my last post, but I'm getting pressed for time.

I've looked over my thoughts on the three bandwagons right now, and the one I think is least likely to be Town is Donut.

I still believe Dorian hasn't done anything that can be construed as completely scummy. I know the argument is that he hasn't posted very much content, but somehow I feel that basing a case purely on this doesn't hold up well this early in the game. This is basically how I got Xan Lynched last game.

Pesco has come and tried to make himself clear when I would expect ScumPesco to sink away any hope people ignore him. Even if Rou thinks Pesco's reasoning is poor, the fact that he's tried to explain how he came to that conclusion should speak more than Roukanken is letting it.

Donut has done two things that do look scummy. He forgot to take his Vote off of Kiro, and then Pushed his vote onto Dorian by piggybacking Serp's vote almost immediately. The first can easily be passed off as Occam's Razor, but seeing Donut's vote on Dorian right now this late in the day and still considering it a pressure vote is poor. I still want Donut to answer my Question found in my post previous to this one.

##Vote: Donut

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #198 on: July 17, 2009, 11:17:16 PM »
Alright, back from my first time in a casino. I spent three hours getting dealt absolute junk in poker. (I blame Hina and Chen.)

I'll be around for a little longer, so if there's a general consensus that a Pesco lynch isn't going to happen I'm fine with switching over to Donut. I'm still unkeen on him for the strange tiff he had with Pesco, his defending Pesco rather than leaving him to fight his own battles and his opportunistic-looking jump onto Dorian.

tl;dr - switch to Donut Y/N?

Affinity

  • hoho
  • ... but I have promises to keep.
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #199 on: July 17, 2009, 11:49:17 PM »
NF's post is nothing more than one gigantic scarecrow, really; nothing more than useless journalism and a few tacked on comments which is really, scarcely what we need.  Of course, any more thorough reread would see that my section is lacking, and that his less than mediocore defence against other people's points are severely lacking in every way.  He raises the old 'ohnoes I have my own playstyle and no one has the right to challenge it' and 'your analysis might be wrong and that's mafia', both of which are, of course, utterly wrong and fruitless.  And no, you are not allowed to say something is dumb and ridiculous unless you have good reasons.  You don't, as you can see.  We do, however.

I think an important point in NF's favour, however, which hasn't really been mentioned yet, is that there is no counterclaim so far.

Alright, Serp raises good points on general technique, but I don't think we penalize effort.  Rather, we disregard effort as a method of judgment and merely move on to the content.  Obviously, as you can see from NF, the effort he must surely have put in is anything but helpful, since there is so little content and so little scumhunting.  And on the flip side, look at FAV from the previous games (where he was confirmed townie for pretty much the totality of the games solely based on her content) While the wrathie thing was a little screwy, I agree, it is more of a lesson that we should lynch lurkers earlier, but not on the first day; since really, I think there are better targets.  Furthermore, there is a supposed cop.

I would like Dorian to say something, though, else he be lynched tomorrow.  Mod prod would be nice.  And happy belated birthday to you, Rou.  donut needs a post, basically to explain the reasons behind his sudden vote switches.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #200 on: July 18, 2009, 12:27:24 AM »
Okay it's 1:30 in the morning right now and I just spent the last hour trying to find a program that doesn't suck at recording Touhou. Camtasia isn't working, but that's because I'm being made to run Vista. *shudder*

Welp, doesn't look like the Pesco wagon is moving today. May as well go for my second choice.

##Unvote: Pesco
Vote: nintendonut888


Good night.

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #201 on: July 18, 2009, 01:09:37 AM »
Ti dar? del vino color di rosa
Ti amer? fino al midollo

Bacia il mio piede
Su, prosternati
Ti cuciner? per bene
Col condimento della disperazione


Day 1 Vote Count - 4 hours remaining:
donut (5): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius, Dorian, Affinity, Kiro, Zakeri, Roukanken
Dorian (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Serpentarius, donut
pesco (2): - Roukanken, Zakeri, Nietz, Carthrat
Nuclear Fusion (1): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut, Pesco
Nietz (0): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (0): - Carthrat
Affinity (0): - Dorian
Kiro (0): - donut, pesco
Carthrat (0): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Donut is at L-1!

Not voting: Nobody.

Furthermore, Dorian has...requested replacement. Argh.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2009, 06:41:01 AM by Alice Margatroid »
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #202 on: July 18, 2009, 01:21:18 AM »
Quote from: Kiro
Serpentarius: Your argument about lurkers is compelling, but let's analyze what's going on in this game. Donut's latest posts are a sign he's being less responsive to the pressure on him and he's ducking from writing up anything. I'd label him a lurker now. Nuclear Fusion has been the same as well, ever since the copclaim. And Pesco's rather clipped posts just now also looks a bit like he's trying to limp through Day 1. All of this is of comparable lurkiness to the case on Dorian you're advocating.

I see Donut throwing up his hands and just giving up, which definitely isn't a point in his favor, to be sure.  His self-professed lack of scumhunting ability doesn't help matters either.  I'll agree that it's comparable to the case on Dorian, but I think Dorian is looking worse in all regards.  As for Pesco and Nuke, I don't think you can accuse either of them of lurking at this point.

Quote from: Kiro
As for the part about letting lurkers pass, I'll have to disagree with that. Xan was a Town lurker lynched Day 1 in Crawl. Alice was a Scum lurker (if I recall correctly, he hadn't said much that game) set to be lynched Day 1 in GWU which was averted by his fake Doc claim. In recent games, I think MotK has been willing to punish those who are badly lurking, but it's always relative to the actions of those who are actively scummy.

It's probably confirmation bias combined with being a relative newbie to this community for me, but I just want to point out that there is a balance to strike when weighing lurkiness against scummy posts.

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
thinks RVS ended when I confirmed voted donut. Explains when RVS ends. Is frustrated that few people commented on my case for donut. (I never had a case on donut, though? so ya)

Did you not genuinely think that Donut was suspiciously serious in his vote on you?

Quote from: Affinity
Alright, Serp raises good points on general technique, but I don't think we penalize effort.  Rather, we disregard effort as a method of judgment and merely move on to the content.  Obviously, as you can see from NF, the effort he must surely have put in is anything but helpful, since there is so little content and so little scumhunting.  And on the flip side, look at FAV from the previous games (where he was confirmed townie for pretty much the totality of the games solely based on her content) While the wrathie thing was a little screwy, I agree, it is more of a lesson that we should lynch lurkers earlier, but not on the first day; since really, I think there are better targets.  Furthermore, there is a supposed cop.

If there are better targets, then they should be lynched, yeah.  That's a matter that we need to decide upon.  I hope you're not suggesting that the cop should scan the lurker, though - that's practically a wasted scan, as I see it.  I don't want to go too deeply into which techniques a cop should use to pick his target, or suggest any targets myself, 'cause I'm worried about a Framer, but...  really, scanning a lurker is just a bad idea.  Anyway, due to the nature of lurking, waiting 'till the second day isn't likely to get much more information with which to make our decision.  I don't think that any of the targets are better (though I'll vote them if I must, of course - I'll be online all the way to the deadline).

Regarding Nuke's wall, it actually looks good to me.  I get the impression of someone who expects to be NK'd, and so he wants to get all his observations out there so everyone can compare their own conclusions to those of a confirmed townie after his flip.  His analysis of what ought to happen tomorrow is also solid - at least give him a chance to scan someone, then if we figure that he's still the scummiest player out there (which, disregarding his claim, I suppose he still is at the moment), then if he's actually telling the truth, his flip of town cop will give us a confirmed innocent.  If not, then we've lynched scum.

Still preferring a Dorian lynch here.  Donut is a close second.  Willing to vote or hammer Pesco, though it looks like that's not going through.

Ninja by Alice:  Dorian wants a replacement.  Lovely.  Give me some time to figure out what this means for my case.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Carthrat

  • HITLER OF LURKERS
  • MEIN MAIDENKAMPF
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #203 on: July 18, 2009, 01:32:02 AM »
Quote from: Zakeri
Donut: Are you comfortable with Voting Dorian if it leads to his Lynch? Consider all of the implications of Dorian Flipping Town And Flipping Scum before you answer this.

Neitz and Carthrat: Same Question, Except about Pesco.

I am voting Pesco, and I usually vote people I'm comfortable with lynching, so... Uh. How is this question not fearmongering, as in it's the same as going "Are you SURE you want to lynch him? HE MIGHT FLIP EITHER WAY".

Quote from: Affinity
I think an important point in NF's favour, however, which hasn't really been mentioned yet, is that there is no counterclaim so far.

N'really; supposing that NF is scum and there actually is a real cop out there, the latter would be kinda stupid to counterclaim and give himself away.

<->

tl;dr of why I'm voting Pesco: he hyped NF's lynch post-claim, and I don't like the way he argued with Rou (specifically, by stringing out his questioning and then employing emotional appeals in a faulty attempt to make Rou look like a bully.)

Some of the latest let's-not-lynch-Pesco arguments include 'he's acted like this before', but on the other hand, my dominant memories of him behaving so involve him being scum, so this isn't really flying.

NF himself comes out of nowhere and insinuates pesco is a doc.. um.. what? Serious? That's so random, I don't get it at all.

Annd Zakeri saying that Pesco has 'he didn't vanish, but tried to make himself clear! Probably not scum.' Except that's what anyone should do regardless of alignment, so uh it's really meaningless.

Re: Donut: I'm willing to hammer, although I won't pretend much of the case I have on him came from my own head or that I really want to kill him over Pesco. The two points I distinctly feel are scummy involve the admission that "I suck at scumhunting and prefer defending okay?!" and his opportunistic pile-on to Dorian earlier.

I'll not hammer for a bit, though, and see if he says anything.

<->

Alice: re: dorian: Can we lynch him in real life?

Affinity

  • hoho
  • ... but I have promises to keep.
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #204 on: July 18, 2009, 01:54:10 AM »
@Serp:

Oh, what I meant about there being a cop is that there will be a more inverse relationship of having some confirmed townies, partially reducing the chance that Dorian would have stayed till the end of the game, if he stayed as he was.

But gah at replacement.  Still awaiting donut's reply.

Nietz

  • NEETz
  • *
  • Normal Person
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #205 on: July 18, 2009, 01:55:27 AM »
You've used 'anti-town' a bit, but never outright said scummy. Why only tack on the word now?
I don't know what to say...
All you posted afterwards regarding this stance were half-assed explanations and smug remarks, which feels strongly scummy.
In fact, you seem to be doing everything possible to look scummy.
And judging by past experience, you're being the exact kind of anti-town you are when being scum.
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

And I mean I really don't know what to say. I would expect even scum scum making baseless accusations to double-check them beforehand.

Compared to donut, who just vanished after the attention got off him for a while,  pesco at least is present and responsive. But as Carthrat just mentioned, this is waht you would expect from anyone at risk of being lynched, regardless of alignment.

As stated I prefer a pesco lynch. In summary, because of his weird behaviour relating to donut, evasive and counter-productive towards Rou and his very vague and alluring claim with unnecessary preemptive breadcrumbing.

Donut as a lynch doesn't seem so bad, but I don't think I'll be around during the deadline to hammer him.

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #206 on: July 18, 2009, 01:58:01 AM »
Effective immediately, EX NaHCO_3 replaces Dorian G! (while I make sure to grab my book of charge -1 cations for obvious useage :P)

Alice: re: dorian: Can we lynch him in real life?
Yes, PLEASE.
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Sodium

  • pew pew lasers
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #207 on: July 18, 2009, 02:03:12 AM »
Hello. I will now be reading some stuff. Uh yeah. Just confirming for now. Hopefully I'll be able to post in around an hour.

Also, I note that this is the second time in a row I've replaced a lurker. >_>

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #208 on: July 18, 2009, 02:18:35 AM »
Alright, looks like we've got an active player for Dorian now, so arguments that rely on expected lack of future consistency don't really hold water anymore.  This bumps Donut up to my favored lynch.  I'd do another full readthrough and writeup on the cases against Donut and Pesco before the deadline, since I haven't really been focusing on either of them as my primary case, there just isn't time.  I'll be online to vote and hammer near the deadline.

##Unvote

I'm not letting Sodium Peroxide completely off the hook, but we should see what he has to say tomorrow.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

nintendonut888

  • So those that live now, pledge on your fists and souls
  • Leave a sign of your life, no matter how small...
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #209 on: July 18, 2009, 02:29:28 AM »
Oh, just as well. I still haven't gotten around to reading everything. ;>_> This will probably be my last Mafia game ever since even during Summer I can't really commit and I suck at scumhunting.
nintendonut888: Hey Baity. I beat the high score for Sanae B hard on the score.dat you sent me. X3
Baity: For a moment, I thought you broke 1.1billion. Upon looking at my score.dat, I can assume that you destroyed the score that is my failed (first!) 1cc attempt on my first day of playing. Congratulations.

[19:42] <Sapz> I think that's the only time I've ever seen a suicide bullet shoot its own suicide bullet