Umineko Mafia - Day 4

[Edible]

Vote Count: "Alice, I am disappoint" edition

Day 3 Votecount - 2 days and some other time remaining
Pesco (3) - Serpentarius, Kiro, Carthrat
EX Na_2SO_4 (2) - Roukanken, Pesco
Roukanken (1) - Affinity

Does that look about right?

That would be correct ~Alice

[Sodium]

*sigh*
All the reasons why I unvoted:
1.I would have to roleclaim for this
2.You're going to kill yourself, no good, etc.
3.I would have to roleclaim for this
4.The Day still has 2 days in it. Ties in with "You're going to kill yourself"
5.Doubt you'd make up something like that
6.A thought I have related to roles in general

Reason why I believe his role now:
1. #1,3,5 in above reasons + below
2. He stopped breadcrumbing and finally said the role, which lets me, you know, see it PROPERLY

I swore I hit the ENTER key in between writing one part of that paragraph, and the other part. Yeah, they're supposed to be like this:

Pesco, I like how you still haven't answered my question. Your "answer" was not an answer to my question.

Cool role claim btw. Serious. I'm going to unvote for various reasons right now, one of which is the fact that you're planning to hammer yourself(which is bad), another is that I actually believe that roleclaim(for various reasons). I'll vote someone later after some re-reading.

[Pesco]

That seems pretty shitty for the amount of time you spent writing the post.

Reason number 1 for believing the claim equates to 'I don't have a solid reason to and I'm going to be ambiguous about it'

With so many reasons to unvote me, why even vote me in the first place? What about my claim now has been any different in wording or mechanics from what I've said on day 1 and 2?

Explain your number 4 reason for the unvote.

[FinnKaenbyou]

1.I would have to roleclaim for this

Then why the hell did you mention it in the first place?

2.You're going to kill yourself, no good, etc.

Isn't it specifically said that there's no role that benefits from death? If you think Pesco is scum this shouldn't be a problem for you.

3.I would have to roleclaim for this

This looks familiar.

4.The Day still has 2 days in it. Ties in with "You're going to kill yourself"

This point alone would have been enough, you know. Why'd you bring in the whole role meta thing?

5.Doubt you'd make up something like that

>_________>

6.A thought I have related to roles in general

Well since you've started, you may as well finish.

[Pesco]

Nevermind the last bit about explaining 4. It's late and I need my aspirins .

Why was 'Cool' bolded? I don't get it at all. Seems like some kind of obscure signaling you trying to do there.

[Sodium]

You were going to kill yourself. There are 2 days left in Day 3. You would end Day 3 two days before it was over. Self explanatory? The day would end early, and with barely any posts from people not named Pesco or Roukanken.

You weren't being a jerkass over the claim this time.

If you want me to claim(not that you would believe it), I will.

I was going to say "Cool Story Bro" in bold(along with a whole different paragraph), but then thought that this was not time for that. I left the Cool, and the bold tags with it unfortunately. Derp

So anyways, Roukan wants me to finish #6. My theory of this game is that there are a bunch of roles that have various useless abilities that they can do, such as Pesco's Asprin thing. There's an obvious reason I think this, but I'm not saying it outright, and I didn't think of this until Day 2.

[FinnKaenbyou]

and I didn't think of this until Day 2.

So why didn't you think about his aspirin claim as one of these until just there? He'd been making the claim for some time.

[Sodium]

It's never good for anyone to vote themselves.

Well, I thought of it mid Day 2 if you want to be specific
There are a couple of reasons:
1. I wasn't sure, as Pesco seemed to...be an ass about the roleclaim, which made me doubt it
2. He actually said the name of the role this time, which is more important then you think
3. I'm an idiot who ends up hesitating to do things

I think I've posted way too many number lists

You still want the specifics of my role? I mean, you probably know the general thing about it now, but yeah.

I'll probably have a post later, as I'm tired right now.

[Serp]

Personally I'm very interested by his apparent lack of an opinion in terms of Sodium, when he explicitly said he'd  be watching out for him after Dorian dropped. A very grey area for me.

I have been keeping my eye on Sodium, but I haven't had much to say, since he's looked pretty much squeaky clean to me.  I don't like saying that sort of thing explicitly, 'cause I don't like giving scum a laundry list, especially this late in the game.  That said, he sure has produced some stuff to chew on once pushed.

Sodium, there's really nothing different to consider after getting an explicit role name out of Pesco.  If you've got one of these flavor roles too, it should have been obvious as soon as Pesco related the aspirin to his roleclaim that he was trying to look like he had a wonky flavor role like that.  The thing is, I don't see those roles just being handed out to townies, 'cause that'd encourage massclaim as soon as someone put two and two together.  "Town Aspirin Addict" is no less likely a role than "Scum Aspirin Addict," and Pesco's breadcrumbing of his role way before it even came up looks to me like he was trying to score points with townies who were aware of the presence of flavor roles like that.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

Pesco's attempt at a self-hammer does not count, as his vote is currently sitting on our good friend Hydrogen Sulfide. Day 3 is still in effect. Also getting back to this shitstorm after my first ever violin lesson was not fun at all. Good christ.

Edit: and yes, you may self-hammer. Doing so would be a huge Dick Move though and would likely have people hate you more than Nucleaire Fusion, and he was the cop who just suicided. So don't do that. Yukari Arc-Welding Yakumo.

[Sodium]

Okay, I've tried to make a post, but I can't. I'll try again in the morning(8-10 hours later), and hopefully there will be new posts by people not named Pesco or Roukanken. In regards to Serp though, no one is completely clean;look at Roukan's post. He got points against everyone.

Oh, and Alice...LEARN TO PLAY A TOUHOU SONG WITH THE VIOLIN. =3

[Kiro]

Pesco has not answered my question, and those of a few other people's as well.

You don't mind dying today and lament the lack of a hammer. Nothing changed about his claim and that shit looked like a self-hammer. Regardless of intent, gives people like Affinity and Zakeri time to state their viewpoints.

Sodium unvoting Pesco because he's not sure whether Pesco is a power role or not seems to fly in the face of scumhunting because he changes his focus from Pesco's scumminess to a claim that has been confusing in presentation. In the end though, that claim has always been consistent in meaning. Pesco stated several times his aspirins do nothing, thus he claims vanilla. Whether he has been truthful or lying the whole time is what people can't decide on. Nevertheless, Sodium is not shooting that high up on my scumdar. It really feels like a newbie misunderstanding about Pesco's role and him stating he doesn't want Pesco to self-hammer is ok. I just don't see any reason for ScumSodium to make himself stand out like that, especially if Pesco is his Scum buddy. It's possible the Pesco lynch would still go on without his vote and then he would have lost his seat on the bus. Conclusion: can't effectively judge at the moment but first impression still leaves me thinking Sodium as Town.

Regarding Rou's case on Sodium: I don't think Sodium has been trying to avoid speaking about Dorian's words. He has given some thoughts on it. I just find it an unreliable way to determine whether he's Scum or not because Dorian stopped posting midway through Day 1, didn't say much as a whole and was quite confusing. The only notable thing is that he let Nuclear Fusion go and voted Donut. Voting Donut was a mistake, but 5 other people did the same thing too. Marking that as your first main point against him is iffy. Frankly, your case on him looks a bit like IIoA, picking out what you suspect as poor choice of words like NF being a "suspicious confirmed Townie" and "arguing as usual" with Pesco. I don't think those are strong enough verbal tells to incriminate him on. The switch from Nietz to Pesco is a bit quick, but he gives a reason for it even if it was just off one point. Tell me how that one point is bad and I'll reevaluate it. The Carthrat case isn't quite the way how I see it, but the general gist is the same. I don't really like your case on Sodium there when you presented it and it makes me a bit wary of you. You just seem to be looking for the wrong things regarding his scumminess. Still not enough to currently top Pesco and Affinity.

[Pesco]

That's quite a post of nothings there Kiro. You're ready to bus Sodium the moment this gets heavy.

[Kiro]

Pesco: your opinion on Affinity please?

[Affinity]

@Rou:

##Unvote

Okay, I am satisfied with your post due to the consideration of connections and the fair amount of original points being brought up.

Admits later he will vote when Zak responds, but by D3 seems to have disregarded his case altogether, going for me instead for tunnelling Pesco. Why didn't he move his vote to Zakeri even after he got his response?

I did move my vote to Zakeri, I think.  Here  As for my D3 actions, I feel that he had already explained his actions thoroughly enough for me to put off any more questioning.  However, of course, I don't think his explanations were completely satisfactory, so I do feel that he's still scummy at the moment.

As for the Dorian business, I admit that I focused too much on the only good point he had, but it was all for the purpose of questioning Serp's vote and trying to make him elaborate further.  The lurkiness and the fallacies I didn't acknoledge, but I was quite aware of them and didn't want to mention them due to they being talked about lots already.  I also thought there were relatively more interesting targets that day like donut and NF and wanted to give him a free pass until day two or so as he had something redeeming to him.

Lastly, the switch from NF to donut instead of pesco was because I felt that pesco wasn't doing overtly scummy by deflecting donut's question (this opinion is strengthened since donut flipped town).  Since donut was waffling a little bit, I felt that voting him was better.

---

@Kiro:

The fact that you vote Roukan and make no mention of Pesco who by now is reasonably suspicious is what's putting you on my scumdar now.

I never said that Rou was more suspicious than pesco.  The vote was just a means of pressure rather than a statement pointing towards who I think is most scummy; I was merely calling him out on something I noticed.  pesco was already getting a bulk of the votes with more than enough reasons, elaborated, after all; thus I didn't think my vote on him would be as important or useful at the start of D3

If one shouldn't be "attacking people for voting him (Nuclear Fusion)," why does it look like you're attacking Rou for voting Pesco?

I was attacking Rou for voting pesco only the past days, so I don't think there is a basis for comparison.

I don't know where you think I mentioned something like the above. Care to explain?

You said Carthrat was not as scummy due to the fact that he didn't vote donut on D1.  This should not have been the case.

Also,

Voting Donut was a mistake, but 5 other people did the same thing too. Marking that as your first main point against him is iffy.

Again, reasons, reasons, reasons, etc.  It seems hypocritical that you sometimes analyze the bandwagons without the reasons behind the votes when there is a flip, and analyze the reasons behind votes only when there is no flip available.

---

pesco is irritatingly scummy due to his shady nature and very minimal scumhunting which does not seem effective at all.  The only notable thing he posted in the entire game in terms of scumhunting worth was on NF, but even that was minimal on the account that it was easy to find bad things about him anyway.  I'm not going to consider his claimed role for this; anyone can claim a flavour role and keep it ambiguous after all.  Preferred lynch for today, but I'll hold my vote.

[Pesco]

I think of Affinity in the same terms as you do for Sodium, i.e. no important  opinion.

Lynches don't happen without votes. It's no good at this stage to say 'I like Pesco's lynch but I don't want to vote him yet'. Stop dicking around.

[Affinity]

Lynches don't happen without votes. It's no good at this stage to say 'I like Pesco's lynch but I don't want to vote him yet'. Stop dicking around.

True, but I wouldn't want you to self-hammer again.

[Pesco]

I've had plenty of time to self hammer. Man up and put me at L-1 if you're endorsing my lynch.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Regarding Rou's case on Sodium: I don't think Sodium has been trying to avoid speaking about Dorian's words. He has given some thoughts on it. I just find it an unreliable way to determine whether he's Scum or not because Dorian stopped posting midway through Day 1, didn't say much as a whole and was quite confusing.

This post looks like IIoA to me.
Next post:

The reason I thought it was alright was because one could possibly see a connection between you two because of that

Some deep analysis here, seriously.
And the cherry on the cake comes with one of his later posts:

Also, Dorian's posts were shit. There, happy? I was trying to give reasons to why they were shit(while not using that word), such as him being a newbie, and the reasons that he posted, but the posts were completely useless(WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY) and/or vague("that", what the fuck is "that"?) and/or BAD(TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM). If this isn't what you're looking for, PLEASE , tell me what you are looking for. Either way, I get the short end of the stick here.

So, you spent the last day validating Dorian's opinion to us...and now you admit that his posting was terrible? T_T

The only notable thing is that he let Nuclear Fusion go and voted Donut. Voting Donut was a mistake, but 5 other people did the same thing too. Marking that as your first main point against him is iffy.

I never said the vote on Donut was my main argument. I pointed out that a lot of his case against Donut was IIoA, but that's it.

Frankly, your case on him looks a bit like IIoA, picking out what you suspect as poor choice of words like NF being a "suspicious confirmed Townie" and "arguing as usual" with Pesco. I don't think those are strong enough verbal tells to incriminate him on.

What about the fact that he tried to suggest a PesRou scumpair without even producing a hint of evidence? Or the fact that this was more or less all he had to say about the argument until Day 3?

The switch from Nietz to Pesco is a bit quick, but he gives a reason for it even if it was just off one point. Tell me how that one point is bad and I'll reevaluate it.

The point was sheer meta, to be honest:

I did find scum-pesco once with the Preemptive Bandwagon theory (even though town didn't believe me and he stealth-hammered me then), so I thought it could be applied here as well.

And Ununubium just says 'lol ok', votes Pesco, and doesn't bring up Nietz again for the rest of the day.
Later he tries to validate it by saying 'someone used it before AND IT WORKED', but that really doesn't clear anything up.

I'm still placing Pesco as my first-place lynch for generally being an ass about his role as well as his 'hurrdurr NF is an idiot therefore he's scum' logic on D2, but I'm fine with either. Carthrat is a close third, but I want him to reply to my post before I go anywhere with him.

[Sodium]

Do you blame me for attempting to make Dorian's posts sound not completely crappy? I mean, the stuff that was arguably good was completely vague(only Affinity got it the first time around), and then the rest was bad. I spent a while trying actually understand what he was saying and then I saw some semblance of thought(which meant that they were justifiable, sorta). And those posts are only a couple lines long. You're trying to get me to explain someones whole thought process with only vague hints to as what the hell he was doing. The conclusion I came up with was that he was a clueness newbie with Wrathie like posting. And Roukan, how is this relevant? Seeing as Pesco thinks questions don exits.

I explicitly said that there was no evidence for that(PesRou).

Now, there is absolutely no actual evidence to support this

It was something stupid I felt like posting.

Hi Kiro, what's with you defending me? And what would be "the right things" to incriminate someone as opposed to "the wrong things"?

Hi Affinity. Ignoring bad points and concentrating on the good points about someone isn't good~. Also,

Lastly, the switch from NF to donut instead of pesco was because I felt that pesco wasn't doing overtly scummy by deflecting donut's question (this opinion is strengthened since donut flipped town).

I don't get it. How does Donut being town make Pesco deflecting donut's question better?

Hi Pesco, you're probably going to die today, no matter what I think of the situation. You could do something useful instead of making comments implying that you're going to turn yourself in a ham hammer yourself, or telling others to get you to L-1 quicker.

...So, where's Carthrat? And Zakeri? =V It's been 24+ hours

No vote yet. =|

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

Zakeri was prodded a little while ago with no response. A prodding PM has just been sent to Carthrat.

[Carthrat]

Laf, I got a prod PM right in the middle of writing a post. Figures.

<->

The reason I cared about Sodium's response is that the question is basically unanswerable and anything he says can then be said to be wrong. That having been said, I didn't expect him to seemingly break down and get mad under repeated questioning, so I could be wrong on this one; I'm certainly more worried about this than what he actually said with regards to Dorian's posting. Unvote on Pesco for 'he has a flavour role' is also pretty dodgy... and everything I had to say about that there was pretty much said by Serp. I don't think this is making him scummier than Pesco, but on the same token I'm not sure about anyone else really being up there right now; in retrospect Rou is looking a bit better for a reason detailed below (tl;dr putting too much credence on endgame play on my part.)

Rou's suspicions on me are basically ignoring the way day 1 is not day 2. At one point, lynching NF was blatant stupidity. The next day, his posting seemed far more like a fakeclaimer, and that was combined with nightime weirdness.

Game theory admittedly contributed to my change; while NF very much seemed scummy to me day 1, if I was wrong (which is always a strong possibility early on), then the payoff of him being town was pretty good, while we don't actually lose that much if we're wrong and it wouldn't have been impossible to recover. Thanks to weirdness on night 1, the payoff then stopped outweighing how goddamn scummy he looked come day 2; when you get a situation with a roleblocked copclaim, he's both useless and pulling out a pretty traditional line for scum in that position. Hence my switch.

On D3, initially skips over Pesco AGAIN and instead turns on me for tunneling him and not liking the NF modkill. So I'm at fault for not being okay with sitting around and letting a player who I think is town get modkilled and losing us a day? >_>

If he was not modkilled during the day, he would've been modkilled during the night and given scum additional bonus night to kill more townies in. So yes, you are at fault for not being okay with the best and, frankly, only possible course of action at that stage. Admittedly, this was only revealed publically at large after your slew of posting, so it's less of a point than I first thought.

I have no idea what pesco hopes to achieve through baiting people to lynch him, except reverse psychology crap. Very odd. He's going after trivial points (e.g. that OMG BOLD TEXT thing, wtf?) His actions are just odd and strange all around; the most obvious reason I can think of is that he's started a brawl with sodium and then set out to look as scummy as heck in order to buy his buddy cred after his lynch. In any case he's clearly saying just the first thing he thinks of after reading any given post without much consideration.

[Pesco]

Talk your crap after I flip scum in the next game.

There is great relevance in people not putting their votes on me despite their words. You've all already decided I'm not going to answer questions, so why are you letting me drag the day on? If you're going to back off my lynch then make your votes useful instead of fluffing around. Either you get on with it and lynch me, or vote someone else.

At the end of the day, I flip town and so does Rou.

[Affinity]

@Sodium:

Ignoring bad points and concentrating on the good points about someone isn't good~

You missed my point completely about Dorian.  I was using the good points to question Serp about his decision to vote Dorian; the bad points were already obvious at that time and therefore irrelevant to the discussion.

I don't get it. How does Donut being town make Pesco deflecting donut's question better?

If donut was scum, then pesco's switch to Kiro at the very beginning of the game would be sliglhtly scummier because he would be avoiding his scumbuddy for bad reasons.  But that's a minor point, so don't mind me.

--

@pesco:

Once again, more time at this stage favours town.

[Pesco]

Giving scum more time to build cred for their votes on me ain't cool either.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Do you blame me for attempting to make Dorian's posts sound not completely crappy?

As a matter of fact, yes. If you honestly thought they were terrible, then you should have said so. People would probably have been okay with accepting that Dorian was a pretty horrible player, but you said so much in his favour that it looked more like you were trying to avoid anything that could resemble a blot against your name.

Seeing as Pesco thinks questions don exits.

...The hell does this even mean?

Game theory admittedly contributed to my change; while NF very much seemed scummy to me day 1, if I was wrong (which is always a strong possibility early on), then the payoff of him being town was pretty good, while we don't actually lose that much if we're wrong and it wouldn't have been impossible to recover. Thanks to weirdness on night 1, the payoff then stopped outweighing how goddamn scummy he looked come day 2; when you get a situation with a roleblocked copclaim, he's both useless and pulling out a pretty traditional line for scum in that position. Hence my switch.

I admit that you did take this in a much more logical route, rather than Pesco's 'I don't care if you're Town or scum, you're an idiot and therefore deserve to die'. This is why you're not my main suspicion at this point, but the way you just managed to avoid the Pesco case for over a day annoyed me. I guess that really depends on Pesco's flip first and foremost, though.

the bad points were already obvious at that time and therefore irrelevant to the discussion.

So in other words, you thought that there were several valid points against Dorian...but still wanted to question Serp's vote anyway? I'm lost.

And of course, Pesco is telling us that spending more time discussing other cases is a BAD thing. Looking real Townie there, Pesco.

That's quite a post of nothings there Kiro. You're ready to bus Sodium the moment this gets heavy.

I'm sorry, but this is the worst thing I've seen anyone post all game outside of NF's 'oh look, a scumbuddy' back on D1. Still waiting for more conversation from Adamantium before I press the wagon, and all of your goading is doing jack shit about it.

[Sodium]

If I said that Dorian was complete ass, then people would've still held it against me. Granted, I should've said it the first time, so essentially, you're right.

Pesco doesn't answer questions, so I'm poking fun at it by saying that he thinks questions don't exist. The don exits part is a purposely mistyped "don't exist", referencing some meme. I should stop putting stuff like that, shouldn't I?

@Affinity:

You missed my point completely about Dorian.  I was using the good points to question Serp about his decision to vote Dorian; the bad points were already obvious at that time and therefore irrelevant to the discussion.

...Isn't that basically ignoring them? I mean, your saying that you acknowledged the bad points about Dorian, dismissed them for being obvious, and still attacked Serp for voting Dorian, while knowing that he had justification for his vote. Why do obvious points=irrelevant?

If donut was scum, then pesco's switch to Kiro at the very beginning of the game would be sliglhtly scummier because he would be avoiding his scumbuddy for bad reasons.  But that's a minor point, so don't mind me.

Oh, I misunderstood. I thought you were saying that Pesco's deflection wasn't all that scummy because Donut was town. Dunno how I came to that.

Also, where's Zakeri? =V He's been gone for 30+ hours.

[Serp]

I count four and a half hours to a Zakeri modkill.  Full analysis in a bit.

[Serp]

EBWOP:  Oh, wait, it's 24 hours after the prod, not 48 hours after last post. :V  Okay, I guess we have a little more time then.

[Serp]

Alright, modkill analysis:  Without knowing Pesco's flip, Zakeri is my second choice for a lynch.  On top of everything else, disappearing to let everyone else tear at each other is a scummy move.  If we let him get modkilled, and he's scum, then the time resets and we have three more lynches to catch his scumbuddy.  That's a pretty attractive prospect.  If we lynch Pesco, and Pesco's scum, and Zakeri's not scum, then the Zakeri modkill should mean that Pesco's scumbuddy gets to pick two kills, bringing us to 5 players left with one scum among them.  If we lynch Pesco, Zakeri gets modkilled, and both are town, then I'm hoping that Alice wouldn't skip our LyLo and we'll just go into 5 player LyLo, but I can't guarantee that...

Anyway, I'm thinking that we should let Zakeri get modkilled if he doesn't show up.  If he does show up, then I'd rather see Pesco's flip.