Moriya Shrine Mafia II (Day 5)

[Affinity]

The reVelske vs. VgameT thing seems regurgitated to the point of redundancy; I will suppose that reV voted Schezo and that people don't like reV for not participating in D1 and the Schezo vote on D2 (and not on D1) and such are the main points here, so...

Since Roukanken seems to have shifted a vote to Hanged Hourai which I can certainly understand (but not agree with; his reasons such as badlogic and bandwagon jumping don't address Hourai's finer points.), and that much of his alignment is dependent on his Schezo flip, I suppose I will pursue him at a later date (there's nothing more for him to defend against anyways that's not related to Schezo).  There is some evidence of further wavering on Schezo (e.g saying he 'looks worse as D2 goes on' and then 'he seems to be putting in effort later'), but meh.  Again, I still do not believe that the speed of the Schezo wagon is any reason to disregard him entirely on basis of WIFOM, but that will be left to the flips.

Doll seems to be telling us who he thinks is town, but not so much about who is scum, which is worrying.  She needs to vote fast; else she seems worth pursuing on D3.

Surprisingly, I find that I agree with Hourai more than most people seem to.  In any case, I do agree with his observation that Schezo is primarily playing a wait-and-see game with minimal pressure and maximum active lurking (IIoA), a scum winning strategy, which seems like a sharp and original observation that scum need not make.  His contradictions and other diversions are... regrettable, but I still see much active conviction in his Schezo vote, especially when Schezo seems to be playing with the flow without answering his accusations.  There's also much consistency between D1 and D2, so much so that I think he seems the most credible of the wagon jumpers at this moment.  I'm pretty much not willing to join the Hourai wagon given his active scumhunting, despite the tunneling which I can vaguely see as scummy to some.

PX's point on him tunnel-visioning is debatable, but the fact remains that PX has not himself talked about reV once at all, which feels kinda weird, but yeah.  Having a solid, original opinion on Hourai is certainly welcome, but what happened to your Schezo vote from a day ago?  Where did all that suspicion go?

Schezo, I feel as if I'm willing to switch to right now.  Despite the original Bob thing he pointed out yesterday, his play today seems to be lackluster; he does not answer much to Hourai's posts and relies on blanket items like 'he's tunneling on me without much original reason'  (but he has, you are certainly not being very active in your case against Hourai, which you should address a little)  Much of the flak Hourai seems to be getting is from other people, even, which feels odd.  Also, there's no connection between posts 196 and 150, which worries me and feels like passive vote-resting.  He does provide a few quips on PX and Doll, but nothing concrete (feels like information instead of analysis), but that's it... Since he's pretty connected to so many people (most of all Rou, to some extent PX), I feel that he's in the end the best lynch today. 

##Unvote
##Vote: Schezo

Schezo, I would like a rehash of your case against Hourai, subtracting the fact that he's going after you and that he doesn't seem to be going for anyone else (but he's been saying things about other players, almost as much as you have).  Your opinion on him certainly needs to be updated.

[WHMZakeri]

Third Count of Day Two

ReVelske (L-4) Roukanken, Huh what, Bardiche, VgameT
Schezo (L-3) Hanged Hourai, ReVelske, Affinity
Hanged Hourai (L-3) Schezo, Roukanken, PhoeniX Wrong
Robotic Doll.S (L-6) PhoeniX Wrong
Roukanken (L-5) Affinity, Huh what

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch
18.5 Hours left in the day.

It snuck up on us huh? I'd apologize for not updating earlier in the day, but apparently few others have.

[Schezo]

Let's see, Hourai: I now have seen another qualm about Hourai that I didn't mention earlier.   He tried to an extent to push Pesco's questioning of him off onto reVelke earlier when all that Pesco said to reV was vote.  However Pesco had been planning on going after Hourai the next day, implied by this, so Hourai thinks he's slick for playing it off as reV who was going to receive it from Pesco when he danced around his questions from here and here. 

b) Pesco's suspicion was based off me following up Bob on his vote. And as we all know, they were both town.

So when he later addresses it, he only does so halfway, conveniently leaving out the major part Pesco was getting onto him for, dancing around questions/ not giving valid reasons.

I don't like it, and how his own logic of catching scum can apply to him.  He also refuses to point out anything in 198 that may apply to any other person besides me and that randomness he just threw at reV. 

Doll, you still haven't come up with a response and you're the next on who I'll go after, after Hourai.

Affinity: I don't see any other players he's been saying anything about, besides reV, barely, so would you mind posting an example of this?

[Hanged Hourai]

*Gets some chili and cornbread. Watches a few Bad Apple!! videos. Finally gets around to reading mafia.*
Yikes.

Let's see, Hourai: I now have seen another qualm about Hourai that I didn't mention earlier.   He tried to an extent to push Pesco's questioning of him off onto reVelke earlier when all that Pesco said to reV was vote.  However Pesco had been planning on going after Hourai the next day, implied by this, so Hourai thinks he's slick for playing it off as reV who was going to receive it from Pesco when he danced around his questions from here and here. 

Ok, after a lot of thinking. I have this to say:

I have no defense for that argument in particular. I said before that if you want to grill me for it, then go ahead.  But, it is a logical fallacy to assume since I had one bad defense in the past, then all my arguments about you now are worthless.

And also, what is your opinion on reV? All you've said about him was basically one post, #196, which summed up says, "you've drawn attention to yourself."

Again, no pressure on him at all. Why do you let him off the hook so easily? Do you think he is at least suspicious?
It's this sort of stuff that you repeatedly do that makes me think you are scum.

[Schezo]

I didn't necessarily let reV off the hook so easily, but since he now has been making some legitimate comments, and some insightful ones at that, he doesn't seem as much worth pursuing as you and Doll.

As for the logical assumption that it's a fallacy to assume your bad defense in the past proves your points invalid, this also could be a scum mistake that you made and got called out on.  Did you consider that?  Adding the fact that I didn't even mention that all your points were invalid makes you seem even more suspicious because I was just pointing out something odd you did, and you were quick to the defense.

[Hanged Hourai]

I didn't necessarily let reV off the hook so easily, but since he now has been making some legitimate comments, and some insightful ones at that, he doesn't seem as much worth pursuing as you and Doll.

But do you think he is worth pursuing? Are you suspicious of him?

As for the logical assumption that it's a fallacy to assume your bad defense in the past proves your points invalid, this also could be a scum mistake that you made and got called out on.  Did you consider that?  Adding the fact that I didn't even mention that all your points were invalid makes you seem even more suspicious because I was just pointing out something odd you did, and you were quick to the defense.

Not really, since I'm not scum.

I'm quick to defend because if you didn't notice, I have 3 votes. So yes, I was doing a preemptive move because in all likelihood, someone would come along and try and poke holes in them.

[Vibri]

I have no defense for that argument in particular. I said before that if you want to grill me for it, then go ahead.  But, it is a logical fallacy to assume since I had one bad defense in the past, then all my arguments about you now are worthless.

one of your arguments (in fact, the argument that you've pressed the most) is that he had no defense.  I guess that doesn't make your argument invalid but it does make you look like a complete hypocrite yet again.

I'm very willing to switch my vote over to Hourai.  I gotta get back to work but when I get home I'll reread the thread and try to say some stuff about some of the more 'lurky' members in this game as well.

[PX]

Schezo has gone down the scum meter somewhat since he's starting to post legitimate posts. However, I'd like him and Hourai both to take less about each other and more about others.

As for reV, he's posting less defense and more scum hunting. I'd like to see his opinions on Schezo now though. Also, a reason why I'm letting his D1 "activity" go is because I'm guilty of the same thing. Go lynch me :V

*New post*

Why do you think reV and Schezo are the scumteam, Hourai? All I see you've done to justify that is a flimsy night kill analysis, and that gets nobody anywhere.

VgT: Good thing the VgT/reV crap stopped. Otherwise, he's making concise points, and pursuing them. Looks good in my books.

*Rereads Day 1*
Wow, Day 1 can almost be partly summarized as a big derpfest.

Okay, looking through D1 again, Hourai went Doll, then tunneled Schezo. Not really looking better, considering he's telling us to ignore all that.

HW makes a good point slamming Rou and otherwise has been pretty good.

Rou is defending his actions on Schezo based off meta, so there's no point in pushing now. Only some more flips can tell how sound his words are. However, you are guilty of slamming Bob over rolefishing.

Bard looks as good as HW and VgT

Also, I see HW's green light is on, so I'll wait for his post before I say more

[Doll.S CUBE]

So, do you guys want me to follow my suspicion and vote someone no matter if the reason for the suspicion is shaky at best?

Sigh, I just don't want to make a mistake.

[Schezo]

You're not going to find a rock solid, "Oh!  This person is obviously scum so now I vote them!" case at any time in mafia so you just start interpreting the facts that are laid out on the table and find what fits together in your head.  You also use your vote to help figure stuff out, like when people are put under pressure and what they may or may not be hiding.  There's enough happening in this game that you can get an opinion formed by yourself on people, so just do that.

[PX]

If you're unsure, make yourself sure. Try sounding confident, and get others on your side. If you're unsure of yourself, nobody is going to listen to you, and you're basically a filler.

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

Something!

VgT - Honestly? I like VgT. He's consise, and I agree with just about everything he says.

Might be needless nitpicking since it happened during ED1, but whatever happened to your slight suspicion of him from earlygame? Was it just because he seemed to drop the pressure on me that you claimed to dislike? You didn't actually say anything positive about him on D1, so this opinion feels like a complete 180 to me.

Affinity - Again, my idea with Affinity is that if he was scum he'd know Bob was Town, and therefore he'd have no reason to draw attention to himself by switching over to him at the last moment. This argument doesn't hold if Schezo is scum, but I've already said why I don't think that's happening about a dozen times.

This... honestly seems like you're clearing him over WIFOM. What is it about Affinity's action that makes it look townie-ish rather than a null tell, provided that Schezo is town like he is in your hypothetical scenario? Sure, the voteswitch might draw slight attention on principle, but it is not nearly enough to support an entire case on Affinity, and if both wagons are townie, then it's not going to cast him in a particularly good or bad light after Schezo's flip since it provides no tactical advantage to scum yet could be an attempt to come across as having more believably existant opinions. So how does this boil down to more than a WIFOM-y null tell as is, especially in your hypothetical scenario that Schezo will flip town? The only way I can see it possibly giving us information on Affinity's alignment is if Schezo flips scum, but you still seem to be clearing him over the fast wagon that never flipped, sooo.

Now that I have that out of the way,
--- Results of Hourai re-read:
* Personally feeling that Hourai's questioning #71 had townie intent, although he came off incredibly misguided. It does, however, seem odd that he never chose to follow up on them, and how he never elaborated on why he thought VgT was active lurking when I said I disagreed. It seems somewhat like there's a huge gap between his #71 and his #87 where he votes Schezo that he never filled, and comes off as if he is ditching his past opinions to jump on Schezo's wagon. Not too fond of this, although I would rather wait for a Schezo flip before actually declaring it scummy.
* His flipflop from "I want Schezo dead regardless of alignment" to "I guess Schezo is kind of scummy" to "I think Schezo is scum" over the span of three of his own posts still bugs me, and it does not help that he never responded to me when I pressed him on it. What was up with that, Hourai?
* Tunneling on Schezo with double standards is pretty ehhh, but doesn't seem too uncharacteristic for a newbie (I seem to recall going after my d1 target throughout the entirety of d2 for the exact same reasons myself, but whatever), and at least comes off as believable since his case on Schezo isn't really that poor. It is irritating that he never addressed why he was letting himself off on a double standard while pressuring Schezo over jumping on a wagon while adding nothing, though.
* Not an issue with Hourai himself, but:

In any case, I do agree with his observation that Schezo is primarily playing a wait-and-see game with minimal pressure and maximum active lurking (IIoA), a scum winning strategy, which seems like a sharp and original observation that scum need not make.

Okay, I don't know if I was just not very thorough at all when re-reading, but I never actually saw Hourai make this observation. Sure, Hourai said that Schezo is scummy for failing to put proper pressure on reVelske, but I cannot seem to find a post where he goes that in-depth or even brings active lurking / IIoA into the matter. Could you link me to what you are talking about? (Or maybe you just interpreted his posts in a different manner, I don't know.)

--- Results of Schezo re-read:
* Probably been said a million times by now, but man his post #58 looks really bad in light of Bob's flip. He sets the townie wagon into motion, adds nothing new to the case, votes somebody for being a "liability for the town", and has his entire post consist of parroting Bard and Pesco. All of this is bad for reasons I should not need to explain, but basically it looks like he's scum going for an easy wagon jump. It is also notable that he never mentioned the suspicion he appeared to have on me in that post ever again, which is a little odd.
* His defense of Bob (which makes no sense since he was voting Bob as well) reads... really oddly to me and seems like Schezo is pretty much stating the obvious. "Townies don't want to lynch power roles!" Well, durr. I also think the post reads a little like he expected Bob to be town, which is awful considering the vote.
* Hourai vote reads as... a rather weak OMGUS, actually, and it seems as if he is trying to dodge having to defend himself completely in #147. Yes, Schezo, Hourai wanted you to defend yourself, but it's not like you can't scumhunt and defend yourself at the same time, so the "Hourai is pressuring people into defending themselves and getting town nowhere" argument is pretty bad.
* The end of #150 is basically saying "I'm going to keep voting Hourai until he switches off of me" which is ughhh. Using threats to stop people from pressuring you in lieu of an actual defense, much?


Looking at the two side by side, I think I would much rather see Schezo lynched. Hourai had a couple of bad screw-ups, sure, but Schezo's mistakes are not only more plentiful, but also more downright scummy than Hourai's which often come off as if they could just as easily be newbie derp. The case on Schezo is also a lot more concrete as well, as we have a townie flip on the wagon he jumped while we do not have such a luxury when attempting to read Hourai.

##Unvote
##Vote Schezo as a tie-breaker, since it doesn't seem like a Rou lynch is happening today and I might not be around for the deadline

[Vibri]

whoops instead of doing the thing I said I was going to do I'm just going to hammer hourai more sorry guys
oh but first this popped up on my reread

I'm not a particular fan of huhwhat, Pesco and VgT's votes on Bob, all three were done very early in the game with pretty weak ass reasons and never received any follow-ups towards the end of the day

everyone shits on you due to your lack of scumhunting and the first thing you do is call out the person who was nightkilled lmfao

anyways, Hourai is just super bad.  I'm going to run through what he did D1 because I think it's kind of funny.

Votes him here.  Reasoning: "I agree with the reasons and rationale behind voting Schezo. I don't have much more to contribute without just copying someone else, it's all been said before. So I guess I'm going to jump on."
Pesco says: "Bob and Schezo are at L-3 by my count. The speed of it bothers me a lot. Hourai's #71 and the vote followup from Bob feels wrong."
Hourai responds: "I see the rationale behind voting Schezo, regardless of who went before me."
huh what says: "It is a bit irritating that Schezo has not returned to defend himself, however."  Schezo posts, Hourai says "And Schezo, POINTING THE FINGER WITHOUT EVEN DEFENDING YOURSELF AGAIN. "
Doll says: "I think Hourai just can't think of anything to say and really did agree with what Bob said"
Hourai says: "Dangitt, I never said I agreed with Bob."  He then calls Schezo out for lack of defense again (note: Schezo has not posted since the the first time Hourai called him out about defense)
Pesco says: "Hourai talked nothing on Schezo before, what was the buildup of evidence? So what if you agree. Why do you agree?"
Hourai says: "No defense. And then when we see the pressure start to be directed towards me before, Schezo goes for it too. Take the pressure off himself. POINTING THE FINGER, STILL NO DEFENSE AT ALL." (Note: Schezo has not posted since the last two times Hourai called him out about defense)
Pesco says: "Schezo is a pile of useless confusion, but how's any of what you're accusing him of actually scummy?"
Hourai says: "I'm not entirely convinced he's scum. But if the dude can't make an argument on why he should stay in the game, then the dude should not stay in the game. Regardless of affiliation."  He follows up: "I haven't seen a shred of evidence that make me think he's town. I said I wasn't entirely convinced, but I do think he errs on the side of scum."  Further followup: "I'm going to stick to my guns and vote for the guy who I think is scummy."

So basically his case on Schezo was "I agree with the other guys" and then when huh what said something about defense he took that and ran with it.  When asked to elaborate why he agreed with everyone else, he said "no defense."  When asked why that made Schezo scummy, he evaded the question entirely, and then said "I find him scummy." Oh, and this is especially hilarious: here's what Hourai made a point of saying he wasn't agreeing with Bob about:

Furthermore, Schz hasn't responded to accusations, and half-gives rV a free ride for cruising on by in his latest post, not to mention it contributed next to nothing. [...] And regarding Free Rides: Don't.

Day 2 he says "please don't make me defend what I did day 1 because I'm a new player.  I think Schezo is scum because he has no defense and may be hiding behind his derpiness."  huh what, Schezo, and I all strongly call out reV for his lurking.  Hourai immediately posts "I'm suspicious that you are scum because you went for an easy jump on Bob, while parroting, and then you go and defend reV right after he admits to lurking and calling the discussion crud."  He has never mentioned reV before this.  He makes a point about how the Pesco nightkill could have been because Pesco was suspicious of reV; when it was pointed out that Pesco was also suspicious of him, his response was "I have no defense for that." 

Every single thing he does is either stolen from someone else or contradicts something else he's already said.  Every reason he uses to vote Schezo can also be used to vote against himself.  He's spent the entire game focused on Schezo, to the point of pretty much ignoring every other player (aside from reV, who he uses only as a tool to go after Schezo more.) 

jesus I need to fuckin' go to bed.  sorry this post is so long.  let's just wrap it up here: ##unvote, vote: Hanged Hourai.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Might be needless nitpicking since it happened during ED1, but whatever happened to your slight suspicion of him from earlygame? Was it just because he seemed to drop the pressure on me that you claimed to dislike? You didn't actually say anything positive about him on D1, so this opinion feels like a complete 180 to me.

He made the point about 'hey HW called out Bob first' that Bard made later, and I was caught up in d1 derp and was busy thinking BUT WAIT NO PESCO IS BAD BECAUSE HE VOTED FIRST. And I admit I was tunneling very hard on Bob d1 and wasn't paying as much attention as I could have.
In short, it was a shitty d1 point and in retrospect was worth jack shit.

This... honestly seems like you're clearing him over WIFOM. What is it about Affinity's action that makes it look townie-ish rather than a null tell, provided that Schezo is town like he is in your hypothetical scenario? Sure, the voteswitch might draw slight attention on principle, but it is not nearly enough to support an entire case on Affinity, and if both wagons are townie, then it's not going to cast him in a particularly good or bad light after Schezo's flip since it provides no tactical advantage to scum yet could be an attempt to come across as having more believably existant opinions. So how does this boil down to more than a WIFOM-y null tell as is, especially in your hypothetical scenario that Schezo will flip town? The only way I can see it possibly giving us information on Affinity's alignment is if Schezo flips scum, but you still seem to be clearing him over the fast wagon that never flipped, sooo.

The simple fact that if it's a Town/Town wagon, Scum!Aff jumping wagons at the last second is entirely pointless. Either way, a Townie's going to get lynched, so why make that unnecessary push for Bob when it was already guaranteed to be one or the other?
Then there's the possibility of Aff!Scum and Schezo!Scum. But even disregarding what I said earlier about the wagon, I find it hard to believe Aff and Schezo are in cahoots given that Affinity's tied Schezo up for the lynch here.
Again, it's the only hard piece of evidence I had on him either way. Everything else about him read as sort of a null-tell - nothing I could put a word to, and with no real evidence pointing towards him as scummy I'm not seeing a reason to point a case at him. I don't agree with what he says, but for the most part it seems to have been genuinely thought out rather than used manipulatively.

Honestly, I think VgT's laid out the Hourai case about as well as can be laid out. I'm sticking to my guns here and holding to Hourai. Last check, both the Hourai and Schezo wagons were at L-2, and the only people not on the wagons are Doll, Bard, and the absent Neo.

On that point, Mod: At what point will Neo be modkilled if you can't find a replacement?

[Affinity]

@huhwhat:

Okay, I don't know if I was just not very thorough at all when re-reading, but I never actually saw Hourai make this observation. Sure, Hourai said that Schezo is scummy for failing to put proper pressure on reVelske, but I cannot seem to find a post where he goes that in-depth or even brings active lurking / IIoA into the matter.

 I don't see how you can go very in-depth into something like improper pressure.  'Wait-and-see' and 'insufficient pressure' raised by Hourai at around here pretty much means IIoA and active lurking combined.  I might be biased since this point doesn't seem to have been raised before, but yeah, I think that's what he meant.   Admittedly, my faith in Hourai seems to be wholly placed on this point and the activeness he has been putting onto the Schezo case; I'm not really looking at his other more questionable reasons and bad play about 'defense'.

---

@Schezo:

Here.  Not really substantial but around the levels of many others like PX.

---

While Schezo seems to be stepping up his play slightly with some token reasons for his votes, I still don't like the way he went about it for the reasons above.  The quip he did on Hourai seems too little too late, and while I see some following-up, I still see more towniness in Hourai.  So yeah, keeping my vote.  Can't elaborate more due to limited time but yeah.

[Bardiche]

Can't get a moment's rest, can I?

Regarding reVelske, I express happiness. He has currently stopped going predominantly for his own defence and has moved on to the loftier goal of hunting down the filthy scums.

On that subject matter, it still saddens me that Schezo once again takes the lead, and I admit displeasure if this becomes an issue again tomorrow. Town cannot possibly have only one candidate pushed to the front and escape from the noose.

If I go read Schezo's posts in isolation, I admit pleasure at him pointing out Huh What's hypocrisy in voting Bob, but then he... would rather vote Bob for being a liability rather than scummy, and because the "day is nearing an end"... which was absolutely false at the time. I cannot imagine why he would jump on the easier Bob case in light of the observation that Huh What used a double-standard to vote, and it is this that turns my pleasure into displeasure.

The thing that irks me is that he then proceeds to explain Bob's actions, which seems innocuous at first but quickly descends into something worse─he's feeding us his own interpretation, instead of letting Bob explain himself. I should have caught this sooner.

The damning point comes after reVelske's post, in which Schezo continues to refuse to move off of "liability for town" and onto "scummy"─reV marks the second time Schezo looks to someone else and says they are suspicious. His accusation to Bob in #91, that Bob is trying to "quick-lynch" is laughable at best.

The start of Day2 isn't much better, because he claims to have explained why he jumped on Bob, but surprise! He didn't. He only said that it was scummy that Bob wanted the attention off himself, which is honestly a bogus point because whom of us want to be the spotlight of a lynch mob's attention?

I find him more suspicious than Hourai, for all that Hourai's participation has been lackluster. Of the few posts Hourai makes, few really come to mind as memorable, but at the very least they also leave no sour taste on a re-read. I see she made a valid point here.

In summation.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Schezo

[WHMZakeri]

Third Count of Day Two
ReVelske (L-5) Roukanken, Huh what, Bardiche,  VgameT
Schezo (L-1) Hanged Hourai, ReVelske, Affinity, Huh what, Bardiche
Hanged Hourai (L-2) Schezo, Roukanken, PhoeniX Wrong, VgameT
Robotic Doll.S (L-6) PhoeniX Wrong
Roukanken (L-6) Affinity, Huh what

Not Voting: NeoSerela, Robotic Doll.S
With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch
3 hours left.
Schezo is at L-1

If I cannot find a replacement for NeoSerela, he will be modkilled at the beginning of day three. This will give me the most amount of time to find a replacement while not impeding town's progress.

[reVelske]

everyone shits on you due to your lack of scumhunting and the first thing you do is call out the person who was nightkilled lmfao

If I'm gonna mention you and huhwhat, might as well mention everyone who was involved, don't see what's so hilarious about that.

Still particularly uncomfortable with Schezo's general neutral feel in his posts, especially those that addresses me, the previous few posts he made about Hourai was the only bits of aggression he has truly shown this entire game, and this is when both him and Hourai got their backs against the wall more or less. I still think his lynch will be a lot more beneficial to the town than that of Hourai, who may be erratic, nonsensical and scummy, but if he does flip town, we are pretty much taken back to square one and left with not much additional information to work with.

I am no longer following all the anti-Hourai/Schezo stuff, I don't see anything of value to come out of that anymore, one of them has to go tonight. Now Instead paying that any more attention than it deserves, I'd say people should start looking at the experienced/pro-active players:

Bard - gone MIA once again.

Affinity - appearance has been sporadic but has done nothing that could possibly incriminate him aside from his strange last minute switch at the end of Day One.

Rouk - Confessed his love for VgT twice. Shares opinion with VgT, bashes Hourai hard whilst clearing Schezo as a derp and clearing Affinity with a silly WIFOM, and his end of day one attack on Bob still seem rather suspect and feels a little forced. Slight feud with Rouk.

VgT - Clears Schezo as a derp too (not directly, but hints at it), bashes Hourai hard.

huhwhat - WIFOM clear hourai earlier, though suggests how he's gradually starting to look worse, doesn't seem to have as much conviction against Schezo as, say, VgT's and Rouk's on Hourai, but do push for a Schezo lynch. Slight feud with Rouk.

PX - Apparently the head of my fanclub, doesn't show all that much opinion about Hourai, bashes Schezo.

Nothing truly incriminating on any of them yet, but that will thankfully change by tomorrow, Schezo lynch still looks more useful for that purpose than Hourai's though.

[reVelske]

Nevermind about MIA Bard. -_-

[FinnKaenbyou]

Mod: Just saying that VgT shifted to Hourai back here. Only one post in it and I still really don't like the Schezo lynch.

[WHMZakeri]

And with that, Deadline passed.
Schezo took a bow, and lifted away his costume.

"I want to thank everyone for this game.
I tried hard to follow, I've only myself to blame.
Well now, I get low and I get high
And if I can't get either, I really try
Got the wings of heaven on my shoes
I'm a dancin' man and I just can't lose
You know it's all right, it's okay
I'll live to see another day
We can try to understand
Gensokyo Time's effect on man"

Schezo was Iku Nagae, Mafia Goon
Please send in your night actions.

[WHMZakeri]

Last night Hanged Hourai, who was actually  Reisen Udongein Inaba, Town Doctor Was killed.
Serpentarius replaces NeoSerela

And now, a Message from our dearly departed Schezo
"I had a pleasant time with my first game, and enjoyed playing with you all.

I thought I might have been able to pull out until day 3 but you all saw to that.  I have a lot to learn from this game and I hope I can improve for later on."

And now, it's time for Shrine Fortune!
Oh, but be very careful! It doesn't seem like anyone's fortune is on the rise!
It looks like very few of you will be lucky today...

And with that, everyone still in the game drew their fortune.

1. reVelske: Kind of lucky - You will find a beautiful flower if you keep your eyes on the road in front of you.
3. Anarchy PX: Not really lucky Be wary of bee stings today.
4. Robotic Doll.S: Mildly lucky If you dance today, you're likely to receive a compliment!
6. Serpentarius Almost lucky If you donate 50 cents, you will find two quarters on the ground.
7. Affinity Bad Luck be careful of risky deals.
10. VgameT Sort of lucky Something might fall into your lap when you least expect it!
11. huh what Very Unlucky you will not find the love of your life this week.
12. Bardiche Super Lucky! The mod will call you by your player name for the rest of the day.
13. Roukanken Poor luck There is nothing behind you, so keep looking forward.

"Suwako!"
"I didn't do anything!" the frog goddess cried frantically.
"Why weren't they fortunes written with powers on them?"
"I don't know! I swear I didn't write any of them!" Spin spin
"You were the only one-wait, that spinning...?"

Suwako turned to see what caught Kanako's eye. Hina was there.
"Hina, did you have anything to do with those fortunes?"
"Yes!" She plainly admitted. "I sensed great misfortune at the shrine, so I gathered it up."
"I see..."

Later, at the river leading from the Shrine Lake, Hina was tied up and placed into a rather appropriately sized boat.
"Umm..." Hina began nervously. "What are you doing to me?"
"It's only proper" Lady Yasaka replied. "To send the Nagashi-bina down the river."
"But, I'm not really a doll, I'm a godess. I just lead the Nagashi-bina!" Hina's protested.
"Have a nice trip." Kanako said pleasently, waving.
"Wait! Doesn't this lead to a waterfall?" Hina asked, fear plain in her voice.
"See you next fall." Kanako said in a voice combining the earlier pleasantry with a sing-song attitude and a dash of death threat.

Day 3 Ends Sunday, Jan. 30th, at 3:00 p.m. EST.
With 9 alive, Majority takes 5.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Well, this is awkward.

It's now I find that I've talked myself up the wrong tree. I won't make any effort to defend myself here, on the simple point that I honestly believed what I said. What I will honestly do, though, is admit I was barking up the wrong tree. Again.

The odds of Hourai being scum as well are pretty much miniscule to the point where they can be negated. The presence of the third reVelske wagon as an option to jump on instead makes it even harder to think Hourai is scum [much to my chagrin, admittedly]. (Irrelevant because Hourai is dead now.)

This allows us to form decent opinions of two groups of people - the ones who near the end of the day tied the votes between Schezo and Hourai [very scummy] and the ones who likewise put Schezo back into the lead [very Townie].

As such, I'm pretty much handing passes to Affinity, Huh What and Bard unless something horrible happens against them. Of these three Affinity's is probably the least trustworthy given
- a) The fact he jumped onto Bob to prevent a Schezo lynch D1
- b) Meta knowledge of Scum!Affinity having a preference when it comes to bussing buddies [see JK9].

HW and Bard, though, I'm generally feeling very good about in light of these facts.

As for people whose votes served to make Schezo safe, we have one reeeeeally big offender. One who I'd agreed with up until now, but now that I've been proven wrong so has he as well. Maybe this will come across as a 180, but in light of the facts I'm gonna have to

##Vote: VgameT

A three-step guide to understanding this case!

1. Look up VgT's recent posts.
2. See that he's made no worthwhile mention of the Schezo case AT ALL. Seriously, he doesn't even REFER to the case for the entire of D2. The closest he gets to mentioning Schezo is saying one of his lines doesn't make sense here, while he offers nothing else of any use on it.
3. Also notice that he has been tunneling entirely on reV and Hourai, and was present on Bob d1 with a 'hey look OMGUS' vote.

I also want to see a good meaty post from Serp now, given that Neo has left us absolutely nothing to just him by for the last two days.

[reVelske]

##Vote: Roukan

Explanation will have to wait, food and gaming takes priority, but I really don't have the patience to wait before placing this damn vote.

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: 'Nothing to judge him by', I mean. -_-

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

##Vote Roukanken
My entire D2 case still stands, except now that we have Schezo's flip we know that his choice to pursue the Schezo wagon over the townie wagon that flipped was essentially a giant chainsaw.
There's not really much more to say.

I do, however, like what Rou said about VgT. I'd also like to point out that after I broke the tie in Schezo's favor, VgT was the one responsible for tying the wagons back up again with his Hourai vote. I actually meant to re-read VgT overnight but never got around to that, so yeah, he's pretty much my second choice for the day, might even switch my vote if he looks worse on re-read.

Will post something with more substance to it eventually, but I want to place my vote down while I can since I might not be the most active today (in case it wasn't obvious what my stances would be today already).

[Doll.S CUBE]

Well, I missed voting for Schezo (slept early, wole up too early, forgot about mafia, slept again, woke up and then I remembered about it, by which it was too late) so I guess I have to settle for second most suspicious person on my list, which is:

##Vote: Roukan

I'm not good at long explanations so here's a summary of why:

Your pursuit of Hourai in that thinking him scum instead of a power role and dismissing Schezo altogether put you in a bad light and now that we know who's who, this puts you in a really bad light, which is just kind of mild light to me, but oh well *shrug*

[PX]

Ah, what a twist. Well, the surviving can be split into 3 groups: Those voting Hourai, those voting Schezo, and the nulltells (Elidibs and Doll). One scum is guaranteed to be in the Hourai group, and the other scum is more likely in the Schezo Group, although it being in the null is an okay possibility.

Of those in the Hourai group, VgT is very suspicious due to what Roukan said, with a few amendments. His D1 play was a call on Bob's OMGUS vote, and a few opinions. D2 was just the full reV thing, him jumping on hourai every chance he got, and defending Schezo every chance he could.

Rou: You clearing Schezo based on WIFOM doesn't help you now. However, I refuse to believe that the 2 remaining scum would get caught in the same wagon, and your vote came first, so unless something makes you more scummy.

Anyways, I'm waiting to see how VgT will respond to these posts.

Also, cut by HW

[FinnKaenbyou]

One scum is guaranteed to be in the Hourai group, and the other scum is more likely in the Schezo Group, although it being in the null is an okay possibility.

What's your reasoning on this, exactly? What makes you so sure that both weren't on Hourai, for example?

[Serp]

As has been stated, those who worked against the Schezo wagon are most likely to be scum.  Considering how fluid the voting was right up until Schezo reached L-1, I don't think that scum expected Schezo to be the day's lynch, and none of the votes on Schezo strike me as flimsy enough to be an obvious bus, so I think that scum were trying to get Hourai lynched.  This makes RDS's non-vote look somewhat better, although he really needs to start taking some real stances soon (and I suppose his Rou vote just now counts as such).

Between Rou, PX, and VgameT, I see that Rou moved his vote from reV to Hourai rather early, even before it was clear that Hourai would be the townie wagon running against Schezo's - in fact, if Rou had kept his vote where it was, then reV would have remained in the lead over Schezo (three votes over two), and this is when reV was looking like a very attractive bandwagon.  So unless reV is scum with Rou, I don't see scum intent in Rou's Hourai vote alone.

VgameT's general reasoning all game has been pretty solid, making me nod along with his statements during my re-read (though this might be largely because I wasn't especially convinced by the Schezo wagon either during my initial read).  However, the fact that he voted Hourai and tied him with Schezo (four versus four votes, with only Bardiche's vote to follow) so late in the day is about as alarming as any vote can be.  Extremely suspicious as far as pure wagon analysis goes, but his reasoning hasn't seemed scummy to me, so it could just be coincidence.  Still my close 2nd choice as far as suspicion goes.

PX tops my list due to putting Hourai in the lead over Schezo (and Rou, for that matter) at a critical point (three votes over Schezo's two), without being backed up by very good reasoning.  His vote against Schezo D1 doesn't carry much weight at all, since it was the only vote against Schezo at the time, and I doubt he could have predicted that Schezo would draw two more votes and become a serious lynch option so early.  And his vote against Hourai is unconvincing - strikes me more as a strategic vote than a sincere one.

##Vote: PhoeniX Wrong

Would prefer one of these three to be lynched, but my priorities as things stand are as I've indicated here.