Author Topic: Yume Nikki Mafia - Waking 2  (Read 117639 times)

Carthrat

  • HITLER OF LURKERS
  • MEIN MAIDENKAMPF
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #150 on: May 17, 2009, 02:20:14 PM »
It's very hard for me to look at Rou's response to Serp and disagree... mostly.

In particular I'll bring up that he's happy enough to lynch Pesco, or so he said earlier, but that guy wasn't on his prime suspect list, and in general he's just claimed neutrality over the whole R/P thing. It's not pro-town to sit back and refuse to push your superior case. It's very pro-scum to let lynches just slide through, if possible. I don't like how we've gone from 'it's fine for them to squeeze each other' to 'eh, let 'em die we've got spare lynches'. That's not the point of spare lynches. >_>

But. BUT.

Quote from: Rou
The point I'm trying to make here is that claiming neutrality is an easy way for scum to comment without needing to choose a side. I think this should be particularly noteworthy if Pesco flips Town, since it could be Serp trying to avoid connection to a Town/Town fight.

But this is alarming; 'if x = town lynch y' generally is, particularly in day one. I would call Serp as scummier than Pesco on the strength of his neutrality (what a weird turn of phrase). I'm presuming you think Serp's not as good a lynch as Pesco, Rou, owing to your vote and earlier statements. Why? And why shove this predictated logic in there, too?

Serp/Baity is my pair at present.

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #151 on: May 17, 2009, 02:22:21 PM »
Quote from: Roukanken
How could Town screw it up if we set up 6/6 at deadline? I don't honestly think anyone would be willing to take that risk unless they were two scum jumping to save themselves, in which case we have easy suspects on later days.

First, I think we'd screw it up by not even getting to 6/6 due to disagreements within the town, and second, I think that some townie could then screw it up by making it look like scum were jumping to save themselves, just out of pure cluelessness.  With the panicked roleclaims and wild vote-flipping that we're likely to see as the deadline approaches, I want to make this go as smoothly as possible.  Granted, this only applies in the first place if we're given a choice between lynching two individually scummy people and two people who would make sense as scum working together, which doesn't really look to be the case at the moment, as I've admitted that my case for AffinaitySM was kind of crappy, so I'm willing to concede that it's a moot point.

Quote from: Roukanken
If I'm attacking him without reason, like you say I am, surely that should be a point against me. But you ignore it since apparently baseless attacks are okay on D1? :|

It looks sincere from here, even if I don't agree.

But you say later in this post that you're neutral on Pesco, and reading me as Town. 'Neutral' and 'Middling in suspicion' aren't the same thing.
Quote from: Roukanken
Here it is again - you say 'You look the most pro-town' and then say 'I'm withholding judgement'. If you say I look pro-town, doesn't that basically mean you disagree with the case against me?

My bad.  The sentence was meant to be read like this:

Quote from: Serpentarius
I'd say that you look the most pro-town so far [blah blah blah] if not for the fact that you seem to be tunneling a bit.

I've been reading Kant for the past few days, so give me a pass on my rambling sentences with unclear subject-object relations.

Quote from: Roukanken
You don't have a reason to suspect him, but you don't have a reason to trust him. Whatever happened to Innocent Until Proven Guilty, ye of the Shikieiki avatar?

Bah, this is Mafia.  Send 'em all to Sikieiki, and let her sort them out.  Of course, Komachi might throw Baity overboard for his self-vote.

Quote from: Roukanken
The point I'm trying to make here is that claiming neutrality is an easy way for scum to comment without needing to choose a side. I think this should be particularly noteworthy if Pesco flips Town, since it could be Serp trying to avoid connection to a Town/Town fight.

I won't disagree with you that this sort of thing can be a scumtell, but the simple fact is that your argument against Pesco just doesn't convince me.  I'm only willing to lynch him if no better options come up.  I have two picks at the moment, and a third isn't inconceivable, so Pesco is still an option, but no more, as far as I'm concerned.

Ninja'd by KY and Carthrat.  I'll get to them after I eat.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #152 on: May 17, 2009, 02:57:55 PM »
Alright, waiting on KY to post something substantial before replying to him.

In particular I'll bring up that he's happy enough to lynch Pesco, or so he said earlier, but that guy wasn't on his prime suspect list, and in general he's just claimed neutrality over the whole R/P thing. It's not pro-town to sit back and refuse to push your superior case. It's very pro-scum to let lynches just slide through, if possible. I don't like how we've gone from 'it's fine for them to squeeze each other' to 'eh, let 'em die we've got spare lynches'. That's not the point of spare lynches. >_>

Well, unless you want me to post every ten minutes with "Hey guys, I still think KY is scummy," there's not a whole lot of superior-case-pressing I can do.  One has to wait for one's opponent to post before one posts one's own rebuttal.  Speaking of which:

Quote from: Carthrat
Serp/Baity is my pair at present.

You still haven't responded at all to this post beyond an "eh, I guess."  If you think my defense is unsuitable, why not tell us what you consider unconvincing?
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Nietz

  • NEETz
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  • Normal Person
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #153 on: May 17, 2009, 03:10:09 PM »
Vote count:

pesco47 (4): Edible, Kiro, Roukanken, Alice, BaitySM
Roukanken (1): Serpentarius, Kiro
Alice (0): Carthrat, Zakeri, Affinity
Kanguya Yaraisan (2): UncertainKitten, Affinity, Serpentarius
Serpentarius (2): Mr. Alert, Carthrat
Affinity (0): BaitySM, Serpentarius, Kanguya Yaraisan
Zakeri (0): Alice
UncertainKitten (0): pesco47
BaitySM (3): pesco47, BaitySM, Affinity, UncertainKitten, Zakeri

pesco47 is at L-4.
BaitySM is at L-5,

Not voting: Kanguya Yaraisan

36 hours remaining.

Carthrat

  • HITLER OF LURKERS
  • MEIN MAIDENKAMPF
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #154 on: May 17, 2009, 03:21:22 PM »
Serp: Don't really care about the Affinity thing anymore. Times changed.

Do care about how on the PvR thing, you've gone from 'it's okay to sit on the sidelines, and neither of them look scummy', to 'sorry, rou, but I'm staunchly neutral on you vs. P' to 'but it's okay to lynch pesco, I guess, no problems' despite apparently having serious issues with other people.

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #155 on: May 17, 2009, 03:46:05 PM »
Do care about how on the PvR thing, you've gone from 'it's okay to sit on the sidelines, and neither of them look scummy', to 'sorry, rou, but I'm staunchly neutral on you vs. P' to 'but it's okay to lynch pesco, I guess, no problems' despite apparently having serious issues with other people.

What issues with what people?
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Kanako Yasaka

Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #156 on: May 17, 2009, 05:10:00 PM »

Page 1-2 is just setup stuff and Baity stuff. There's honestly nothing I have to say here. :|

On to page 3!

Quote from: Baity
And if you don't believe what I'm saying now (and that I'm protecting Edible for instance), check the signup thread. Now check the start of this thread.
...what? You're protecting edible?

Quote from: Baity
-Make myself look so much like scum, that you'll waver it off, because nobody plays like that... (save for me in this game, I hope) >_>
-From that, survive lynching round of D1 (very unlikely at this point).
-Survive N1.
-...(insert future plan here). Hopefully, I get to pull something out at this point.
Or perhaps act so much like scum that you try to convince town that you're not scum, if you are. The "nobody plays like that" comment is basically saying that "I'm not scum since I'm playing so badly." This is honestly a pretty dumb gambit, especially so early in the game when you had NO suspicion on you whatsoever. It could indicate paranoid newbscum. Note the COULD.
Quote from: Baity
suspicion on me proves that this is arguably one of the stupidest things scum can do
So that automatically means good playing town instead of inexperienced newbscum?

Quote from: Baity
High-risk, low-reward if done by scum (you're probably better off shutting up and blending with the crowd)
High-risk, variable-reward if done by townie. Depends on what I can do if I survive.
You were trying extremely hard to convince everyone else that you're town from the very beginning of the game! That's quite scummy, IMO.

So for Baity, it seems you're trying to WIFOM the town into believing that you're Too Scum to be scum. If you haven't noticed, that didn't work in your favor.

Another stupid theory of mine is that you could be purposely making a scene so that others could concentrate on you instead of scumhunting. It makes about as much sense as your Too Scum gambit thing.

So basically, ##Vote: BaitySM for the reasons stated above, and the reasons that other people stated. In short, he tried to outWIFOM the town and failed miserably.



I guess that's good for a start. I got dragged away from my computer a lot for various reasons so this post wasn't as substantial as I wanted it to be.

Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #157 on: May 17, 2009, 05:41:33 PM »
Quote from: a few people
WHERE IS EDIBLE ARGH[/b]

I'm rarely around much on Friday/Saturday EST.  I'll run some analysis once I'm at work and not busy.

Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #158 on: May 17, 2009, 05:44:17 PM »
EBWOP:

Wow, that was a gigantic ball of failure.

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #159 on: May 17, 2009, 06:12:36 PM »
Pesco: So what's your opinion on Rou? You've gone on him for all this time and in the end, you'd go for UK as your second lynch? Is Rou Town in your eyes given you've spent the most time writing affectionate poems talking about him today? Also, you seem rather apathetic about that secondary lynch target. Hrm. You definitely could try harder on that point.

Baity has been addressed by others and with your explanation of "So Scummy That He Must Be Town" being your primary defense, we can't really take that chance if that was your intended strategy from the start. That completely overrides any Townie motivation to do such a thing meaning it's either a really delusional course of action for a possibly lazy Townie or Scum strategy.

Regarding Serpentarius, I don't think it's his job to break up the arguing between Pesco and Rou. He had his focus on Affinity and Baity at the time so he actually pushed their argument into a corner from what I read and observed it while waiting for Affinity. The only reason he seems to be suspicious is because he acknowledged not bothering to stop it and I find it ironic that Rou was the first one to say this when it should be obvious from Rou's point of view that he had more control over stopping his own argument with Pesco than Serpentarius would. So why is Serpentarius getting extra heat for it when pretty much nobody else told Pesco or Rou to drop it? However, I don't think it's that bad of a case mainly due to Carthrat's recent question. I would also like to hear Serp's response regarding that subtle attitude change that Carthrat pointed out.

Rou: I will disagree with you that Pesco kept his FPMH on Baity for "both" the dice and the self-vote. Pesco is not dumb. I am certain he was talking about dice just to get reactions out of Baity and Baity provided them. And tell me what's wrong with keeping the vote on Baity after all that? It is Baity's own actions that have brought the trouble onto him, not Pesco's. I don't think Pesco's prodding of Baity is any more malicious than standard Mafia play. And I would like to turn it around that Scum Pesco doing a quick bus on Scum Baity to earn Town cred doesn't seem to jive with the subsequent attack on you. He clearly got heat for it and probably expected to get heat for it and that would defeat the purpose of his bus. In other words, I don't think Baity and Pesco are buddies. This seems to be further evidenced by Baity now voting Pesco inflating both of their votecounts up higher.

KY: Baity is not protecting Edible although now that I read what Baity said, that was a really dumb thing for him to say. I can't say it's difficult to bring up a decent case to vote Baity at the moment. I'd give KY the benefit of the doubt for one Day.

Mr_Alert: Your vote is still a random vote!

Vote still stays on Roukan because some of the little things I've mentioned above don't really make me feel any better about him. Not really feeling a Pesco lynch at the moment and need to wait on Serpentarius. I'll be back later tonight.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #160 on: May 17, 2009, 06:56:04 PM »
baity...force generating discussion is NOT a pro town thing to do. It prevents the natural fuck up that invariably happens from happening.

Honestly, I have to reread your earlier post, baity. I skimmed it and it didn't seem to address much. But I made a critical mistake. I read it assuming you were scum. I'm going to reread it when I finish this post.

Quote
@UK: This post is pure IIoA. You've done a nice job summarizing the game, but there is no analysis in this post whatsoever. So what was the point of poasting it in the first place?

No, actually, it has questions, accusations, and analysis. Please demonstrate how it is IIoA?
In fact...it quite isn't. Yes, there is some summary, but at least half of it is clarifications being asked for and overall poking.

Quote
. I extremely dislike UK's method of posting which is very strongly IIoA.

More proof?

The rest of your post is fine and valid though. Well, I disagree on Baity though. He's not a noob, as he admitted himself.

Finally, I can't help the way I post when I have 2-3 pages to catch up with every time I log on. Deal.

Quote
@ UK: Which and why of Rou's points are the good ones and which ones are bad? Lay them out in chronological order for me, Rou should do it too (which ones are the good ones in his opinion).

I'll have to reread it. Expect it in a post after this one since that's when I'm doing the "Posts I should reread thing"

Quote
@ Alice: You've already addressed UK's lack of content and lurkers. I find her post to KY about coaching quite silly as that's exactly what she's doing herself. Edible has pulled a clean fence sit with his post, also adding nothing to the pot. Baity and KY's responses have been all round unsatisfactory. KY doing a lot of piggybacking and no independent posting (i.e. without prompting). Baity lacking sensible replies. Mr Alert needs to post more than asking what FPMH is.

I guess I can see this, but I disagree. Kanguya is new enough so he probably doesn't understand how posting town lists can be scummy. Hell, even the old dogs do it, so it's hard to see why someone would get flack for it. While it seemed like coaching, it was also putting the point against him. He hasn't done enough else that I've noticed for me to consider him scum. Apparently, I've been missing something though as I read on he seems to be being poked a lot. I'll reread him as well.

I still desire proof on "lack of content"

Quote
For a second lynch, UK looks like a good avenue, outlined above.

Funny, either you or Rou do in my book. I'm leaning you, actually, since you are basically trying to hang me on two points, one of which not sufficiently proven.

Quote
@UK: Hey now I resent being told that gaming the setup's bad, it's won games in the past. Early day one, nothing else to do, at least it's something to talk about.

It's also lost them. Either way, it wasn't so much we were playing "Game the set up", it was more "We are ONLY playing game the set up, and no one is doing much in the way of scumhunting"

Quote
@Everyone: Do people write these walls because they think they're obligated to, or because they don't realise how horribly painful they are to read? For god's sake, there's not even that much to talk about!
Quote

I have an excuse. Easiest way to do 3 pages of catch up


Quote
-Make myself look so much like scum, that you'll waver it off, because nobody plays like that... (save for me in this game, I hope) >_>
-From that, survive lynching round of D1 (very unlikely at this point).
-Survive N1.
-...(insert future plan here). Hopefully, I get to pull something out at this point.

You are trying to be too scummy to be scum? OH I wish I had two votes right now, so I could use them both on you.

Quote
To explain the first point, allow me to retaliate with, "Why would it be beneficial for a scum to put themselves upfront like this?" (i.e. why would a scum member make themselves look scummy?)

For the exact reason you said. So we'll wave it off.

Alice once again makes a good post. And says what I was thinking better than I did.

And...pesco points out something I missed.

Wait, you pointed out why it was anti town and didn't vote Baity, Alice?

Quote
I never claimed he voted Baity based on 2d6, I got mad at him when he pointed it out later. Why does a point have to be presented at the start of the case to be flawed?

Then I misunderstood. I apologize. It goes back to pesco then :P

Quote
If the typical 'no roles with lynch as win condition' rule was there I'd have given it no further thought, but it was conspicuously missing so I panicked. I apologise.

OH NOES! APOLOGETIC MOE! RUUUUUN!

Seriously, there isn't much else you can say on that. I'm not sure how to take it but it's not a major point.

As for the self vote being a part of a master plan, just going to note it apparently was with Baity. You may have your facepalms at the ready.

Quote
Forgive me for finding it annoying when people have no objection to Pesco's ad-hominem attacks on me. Seriously, he's MotK's resident Draco in Leather Pants.

Um...I didn't? I did tell pesco to stop being a jerkass, and I told you to enumerate your case in a form that isn't a WoT. Please reply, over?

Some of Baity's points read null tell (as he says either town or scum could do it). He also brings up not playing other MotK games too much. They were just examples, not accusation of emulations. In fact, reading Baity's post closely, I don't see a single good point. All of it seems to revolve around "I didn't play or watch here" and "Pesco pushes people". I didn't see a good scumtell out of any of this.

Oh hey Rou, you said it better than I did :(...again

Quote
Here it is again - you say 'You look the most pro-town' and then say 'I'm withholding judgement'. If you say I look pro-town, doesn't that basically mean you disagree with the case against me?

Not to answer for him, but this is a misrep. He's saying you WOULD look protown...if you weren't tunneling pesco.

Ok...caught up. I will now reread KY, Baity's WoT, and Rou's WoT.








Nietz

  • NEETz
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  • Normal Person
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #161 on: May 17, 2009, 07:00:21 PM »
Vote count:

pesco47 (4): Edible, Kiro, Roukanken, Alice, BaitySM
Roukanken (1): Serpentarius, Kiro
Alice (0): Carthrat, Zakeri, Affinity
Kanguya Yaraisan (2): UncertainKitten, Affinity, Serpentarius
Serpentarius (2): Mr. Alert, Carthrat
Affinity (0): BaitySM, Serpentarius, Kanguya Yaraisan
Zakeri (0): Alice
UncertainKitten (0): pesco47
BaitySM (4): pesco47, BaitySM, Affinity, UncertainKitten, Zakeri, Kanguya Yaraisan

pesco47 is at L-4.
BaitySM is at L-4.

Not voting: No one.

32 hours remaining.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #162 on: May 17, 2009, 07:05:33 PM »
Quote
I was arguing against this point here, which YOU raised as a point against Baity and was in my opinion flawed. I don't see any misrep here.

This felt like a bad point at the time. Now that I understand what he was saying it isn't as much.

Quote
If you'd notice, I'm also relatively suspicious of Baity (as I've said previously). The point is that the reasons you're attacking him for are relatively poor (FPMH, dice hax...), and bad attacks are in my opinion worse than bad play since that's how scum get Townies lynched.

But pesco always does that. I'd be more worried about "poor reasoning" later in the day. This is a null tell at the time of that post.

Quote
Firstly, immediate misrep on 'giving 11 players free passes'. Trying to pass me as a tunneler when I've made points against more players than he has.
Secondly, your argument that Baity was scum revolved around there being a decent plan behind what he was doing. If you can't come up with some sort of legitimate benefit that Scum!Baity could get from this plan, I'll consider your defense null and void.

I wouldn't call it a misrep per se, since you have spent most of your effort on pesco. However the rest is alright. (Of course, later, Baity DOES reveal his "master plan")

Quote
In response to silly point YOU made about pointing out him excluding himself from random voting. I was pressing you on it to see if you were genuinely trying to use it as an argument.

This gets a bit too Light-kun for my tastes. I'm not sure it's all that valid since you could be saving face.

Quote
Explain the difference to me. From what I can see you're arguing semantics here.
Fair point

Quote
In return for earning the suspicion of several other players. Looking at the current votes on him, I'd say this has earned Baity roughly -1 free passes.

Fair, but not conducive to pesc-um

Quote
This doesn't refute the third point - if you want three lynch targets, we should have three genuinely suspicious players.

Fair

Quote
And for the umpteenth time, you disregard my case without giving a useful defense. I recall you doing this to Umu last game when you were scum, hoping that his repeated insistence that you were scum would make him look worse for tunneling than you did for your various scummy tactics.

This is one of the best things you have in that post

Quote
And for the record, it's hard to scumhunt when half the players have posted pretty much zilch beyond setup discussion.

This isn't. Poke them

Quote

Can I PLEASE GET SOME OPINIONS FROM YOU LURKERS OUT THERE?! IF I HAVE TO SPEND D1 DOING NOTHING BUT ARGUE WITH PESCO SINCE NO-ONE ELSE IS SAYING ANYTHING USEFUL I'LL PROBABLY HAVE AN ANEURYSM.

Oh good


Ok, I'm going to put the Baity post and KY anal in a different post since I wall'd Rou's wall.


UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #163 on: May 17, 2009, 07:09:16 PM »
Quote
To see who would jump the gun, and use the very small of amount of evidence that I've "created".

Effectively admitting Fong's gambit

*facepalm*

The two reasons for self voting are just ugh, and I've already explained why in a later wall

Quote
I have no evidence you're even scum to begin with. If I start, it would be either pure guesswork and assumption, or your reaction to my posts / anybody else's, which I'm still analyzing. Voting to improve my self-image? See above. And below, just below this.

Guess what, this is mafia. It IS guesswork and assumption.

Quote
Let me put it this way. I'd rather try to sacrifice myself to take out at least 1 scum by evidence, rather than rely on PR's. My self-voting is only temporary, and I will address the reasoning to my switch accordingly.

Except it doesn't work like that

Your wall sucks. It tries to defend the self-vote. You should probably just have dropped it.

KY next.


UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #164 on: May 17, 2009, 07:20:26 PM »
This is most assuredly IIoA, and his first real post. On page 3

This is actually pretty bad too. If you have nothing to say, why post? And why don't you have anything to say? There are THREE PAGES SO FAR. Oh, and obligatory why aren't you voting Affinity if you would do it if you had to?

This was beat to death already. I'll give him a slight pass on it since he seemed genuinely unknowing.

This was also beat to death. I don't know why I didn't care as much about it as I should. It's just very flat...sorry, I'll be useful eventually. and the EBWOP cares too much about image.

This is an herbal blend of excuses, analyses that shouldn't be made, and waffles. (poke pesco, don't want to get involved in P v. R.)

yes, at this point I'm retconning what I said about not so scummy. I didn't read him close enough.

Analysis issue resolved.

This is a weak defense. Oh, and it's mostly apologetic moe and no real counterpoints.

Kanguya's Baity post is solid, but it took too long to come out. Grain of salt, basically.

Ok, seriously...at this point I think I want three lynches.

Baity, Kanguya, and Pesco.

Pesco's ad hominems and apparent disregard for Rou's case make me lack warm fuzzies. I DO want Rou to enumerate his case in a paragraph rather than point by point wall, so that pesco has no excuse to dodge, but I'm leaning pesc-um.





Kanako Yasaka

Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #165 on: May 17, 2009, 07:37:30 PM »
This is most assuredly IIoA, and his first real post. On page 3

Frankly, I didn't want to get involved in the Baity dice whatever. If you look back, not much had happened between page 1 and page 3 besides setup speculation and that Baity dice thing + self vote. So which is worse, setup speculation or nothing at all?

This is actually pretty bad too. If you have nothing to say, why post? And why don't you have anything to say? There are THREE PAGES SO FAR. Oh, and obligatory why aren't you voting Affinity if you would do it if you had to?

Rou asked me to post, and I figured that it would be worse if I didn't post at all. Regarding the Affinity vote, I wasn't too confident in my case but it was the best case that I had. It wasn't voteworthy but it was a case.

This was beat to death already. I'll give him a slight pass on it since he seemed genuinely unknowing.

This was also beat to death. I don't know why I didn't care as much about it as I should. It's just very flat...sorry, I'll be useful eventually. and the EBWOP cares too much about image.

If there's one thing that I hate, it's people getting angry at/accidentally offended by me.

This is an herbal blend of excuses, analyses that shouldn't be made, and waffles. (poke pesco, don't want to get involved in P v. R.)

Worst post ever. You have every right to hold that against me.


yes, at this point I'm retconning what I said about not so scummy. I didn't read him close enough.

Analysis issue resolved.

This is a weak defense. Oh, and it's mostly apologetic moe and no real counterpoints.

Well, this is a bad excuse, but I had just woken up and I wanted something out there.

Kanguya's Baity post is solid, but it took too long to come out. Grain of salt, basically.

IRL reasons.

Ok, seriously...at this point I think I want three lynches.

Baity, Kanguya, and Pesco.

Pesco's ad hominems and apparent disregard for Rou's case make me lack warm fuzzies. I DO want Rou to enumerate his case in a paragraph rather than point by point wall, so that pesco has no excuse to dodge, but I'm leaning pesc-um.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #166 on: May 17, 2009, 07:56:34 PM »
Quote

Frankly, I didn't want to get involved in the Baity dice whatever. If you look back, not much had happened between page 1 and page 3 besides setup speculation and that Baity dice thing + self vote. So which is worse, setup speculation or nothing at all?

But there was more to talk about than that.

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Rou asked me to post, and I figured that it would be worse if I didn't post at all. Regarding the Affinity vote, I wasn't too confident in my case but it was the best case that I had. It wasn't voteworthy but it was a case.

If you aren't voting, any case is voteworthy. Further, you should have posted content.

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If there's one thing that I hate, it's people getting angry at/accidentally offended by me.

It's the internet. It happens

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Worst post ever. You have every right to hold that against me.

I assume you aren't including wrathie posts in your collection of posts ever. There's not much I can say. Overcome the point, if you can't defend it.

Basically, given how the rest of it is mostly excuses and apologies, I would be comfortable with a KY lynch.






Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #167 on: May 17, 2009, 08:12:33 PM »
Regarding Serpentarius, I don't think it's his job to break up the arguing between Pesco and Rou. He had his focus on Affinity and Baity at the time so he actually pushed their argument into a corner from what I read and observed it while waiting for Affinity. The only reason he seems to be suspicious is because he acknowledged not bothering to stop it and I find it ironic that Rou was the first one to say this when it should be obvious from Rou's point of view that he had more control over stopping his own argument with Pesco than Serpentarius would. So why is Serpentarius getting extra heat for it when pretty much nobody else told Pesco or Rou to drop it? However, I don't think it's that bad of a case mainly due to Carthrat's recent question. I would also like to hear Serp's response regarding that subtle attitude change that Carthrat pointed out.
You try answering basically the same question half a dozen times and managing to keep exactly the same tone in each answer.  That said, we have about 30 hours left in the day.  I think it's time to settle on who we want to lynch.

Surprisingly coherent post from Kanguya.  Not enough to attone for all scumminess, but it's worth noting.

Edible has excuses.  I'm inclined to give him a few more hours to show up.

I'm not feeling so generous towards Mr_Alert.  His last post was 22 hours ago, was lacking in content, and was only made due to Roukanken's prodding.  He still has his random vote from the beginning of the game on me.  Am I the only one who thinks this is a bad thing?

My top three preferred lynches right now are as follow:  BaitySM, Kanguya Yaraisan, Mr_Alert.  Incidentally, since we all seem to agree that anything more than a triple lynch is certainly a bad idea, this doesn't leave any room for poor Pesco47.  Roukanken, if you're still convinced that Pesco47 is worse than the guy who still has his random vote from the beginning of the game, the guy who was humping my leg on horrible reasoning 'till just recently, and freakin' BaitySM, I think we may have reached the point where I'll actively discourage your tunneling.  We need to settle on our lynches soon.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Pesco

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Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #168 on: May 17, 2009, 08:16:39 PM »
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@ Serp: You suspect bussing already?
Most of the votes placed in the random voting phase tend to get switched around pretty quickly.  It seems like a fittingly newbie move to put an apparently random vote on a fellow scum, intending to switch as soon as a good bandwagon comes up, but then panic when you get called on it.
Quote from: I respond to the above with
That kinda fails since he's voting himself right now. What supports your theory is his reluctance to revote Affinity, which isn't particularly great for consideration right now.

In retrospect here, even though I only brought up the bussing possibility, I think Serp could also have spoken about a scumAffinity joining the wagon aspect. The response from Serp on this, lacking followup is pretty evident of an unconvincing vote in the first place.

Quote from: Serp
That said, I've been increasingly unsatisfied with my Affinity vote since I placed it, though your defense of him has been noted.  By keeping it, I was mostly just hoping to provoke an interesting response.

I don't see this bactrack as a clean one.

Affinity's side of the vote from Serp has just been minor return prod, this was enough to illicit a backtrack from Serp?


Quote from: Kiro
Pesco: So what's your opinion on Rou? You've gone on him for all this time and in the end, you'd go for UK as your second lynch? Is Rou Town in your eyes given you've spent the most time writing affectionate poems talking about him today? Also, you seem rather apathetic about that secondary lynch target. Hrm. You definitely could try harder on that point.

AngryRou is generally more town. He's done his hunting in all directions by now, so I don't hold him as scummy for his progress.

KY is already posting badly enough as is, with UK's coaching, it presses KY into making possible even worse posts. KY's 149 still show's the effect of UK's suggestion. I'm also waiting on UK's response as to which of Rou's points were good and which were bad.

@ UK: Make the stuff clearer.

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Firstly, immediate misrep on 'giving 11 players free passes'. Trying to pass me as a tunneler when I've made points against more players than he has.
Secondly, your argument that Baity was scum revolved around there being a decent plan behind what he was doing. If you can't come up with some sort of legitimate benefit that Scum!Baity could get from this plan, I'll consider your defense null and void.
I wouldn't call it a misrep per se, since you have spent most of your effort on pesco. However the rest is alright. (Of course, later, Baity DOES reveal his "master plan") What makes a burden of proof fallacy alright?

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Explain the difference to me. From what I can see you're arguing semantics here.
Fair point [This is relative to which post?]

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This doesn't refute the third point - if you want three lynch targets, we should have three genuinely suspicious players.
Fair [This is relative to which post?]

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And for the umpteenth time, you disregard my case without giving a useful defense. I recall you doing this to Umu last game when you were scum, hoping that his repeated insistence that you were scum would make him look worse for tunneling than you did for your various scummy tactics.
This is one of the best things you have in that post Given how many points you disagreed with in your wall, why do you agree?

That's about all I can pick out that you've listed as good points. Comments appended.


Quote from: Rou
THIS IS NOT MISREP. It's not as if I'm claiming you said something you didn't, and while it may not have been your initial reasoning for voting Baity it was easily your weakest reason.
Quote from: Rou just a little above that one
Pesco's argument for Baity being scum was that claiming he rolled 2d6 and then selfvoting was all part of some master plan.
Quote from: Rou's initial vote post
More interesting to me is Pesco's misrep of what seems to be a simple misunderstanding of the probabilities of 2d6:

- No, he was excluding one player: Edible (1). Don't even TRY to argue that he should have left the self-vote possibility open.
- In terms of the probability ignorance, realise that this scum plan you're suggesting only works in one highly unlikely situation - the scum players are all near the top or bottom of the list, thus the 2d6 roll will probably (or in one case, definitely) miss them. The odds of this are also pretty small.
- There's also the point that, well, using a 2d6 for a random vote is OBVIOUSLY going to get called out for being stupid. Either the entire scumteam has no idea how probabilities work, or Baity just made a mistake. Indeed, if he'd never said 'I'm using 2d6' his random vote would've received no further thought, so why would he mention it if he knew it was a bad idea?

Your misrep has been going on for that long.

Quote from: Rou 142
FPMH is an initial suspicion which either stays or goes based on later posts. He KEPT IT ON based on the dice and the self-vote.
Quote from: Me 54
Read his post, he excluded himself and player 1, which means it's 2 players. More importantly, it's got nothing to do with why he's getting voted now.

The self voting was valid for keeping my vote on him.

Quote from: Rou 142
Quick bus to make Pesco look good and stop him from being the classical MotK policy lynch.

Since you're so fond of past games as evidence, I'll point out that when we were scum together, I told you to bus me so that I get lynched first. Me bussing Zak in Alice's game didn't turn out to be good play for us. How is your theory here valid according to empirical evidence?


Moving on, (expect repeated information to occur; I will try not to recite any other opinions that others have given, but it's expected to happen knowing me)
Excuses like this suck. Why make them at all?

pesco accuses me of protecting Edible from the exclusion of my random selection;in an attempt to make me look more scummier than what I need to already be (in other words, using me as the diversion for himself). Though it could be play from either side of town, or scum knowing that I'm town and getting a free lynch.
Explain what the point of 48 is for then?

Then denies it has anything to do with the claim of protection;The reason was assumed still FPMH. However, as the worst-case scenario appeared, more garbage posts came out. The result? Diversion from himself, attention towards me.

Also,Note: I have no idea about who does what in each Mafia game. i.e. false accusation. Remember that I stated:I also have not watched any games here.
We've only got your word for the claimed experience and it's not a valid defense.

From here to the end is what? Not scumhunting that's for sure.
Encourages 2nd option for lynch, probably thinking that there's enough dirt on me (i.e. opting for a multi-lynch for maximum effect):
*KY's post regarding my situation, and give or take a bit of content*Further pushing.
You might as well be going for a "lynch everybody". Like so:
And of course...,

-KY votes Affinity-Hmm... cover-up? This would be the only evidence (as of now) that Affinity is affiliated with pesco. However, I believe it to be attempting to redirect the vote to a more "convenient place", again going for a solid multi-lynch.

Yes, some parts are a bit "flawed", but that doesn't change the fact that he still manipulated (almost) everything (subtle or not) to his favor. And lying through one point.

Comments appended. If KY is leg-humping, then Baity is post-humping?

I'm freaking tired now.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2009, 08:31:34 PM by Nietz »

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
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  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #169 on: May 17, 2009, 08:21:24 PM »
Nietz fix the gap under my post pls?

Fixed. But Mind The Gap in the future. :P
« Last Edit: May 17, 2009, 08:31:36 PM by Nietz »

Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #170 on: May 17, 2009, 08:24:03 PM »
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Why are you outright saying 'I might be wrong with this'? It feels like giving yourself an escape route if you get proven wrong.

What's wrong with saying "I might be wrong" when I probably am?

My opinion on Edible is very low right now. I'd like to know if there isn't an obvious reason as to why he's not posting very often.
...Okay, there's an excuse at least.

I don't see why the main point against Serp (not getting involved with Rou and Pesco's arguement) makes him scum rather than lazy town - and that's ignoring his prods of Beilos and Affinity.

UK's case on Gensokyo Blender is really nice, but it's worrisome because it contains mostly "KY is acting like KY Always does, and that's no good." I'm not a big fan of clearing people just because it's their meta to play badly (for whatever reason), but at the same time, there really isn't an actual scumtell to work with in the whole case. I'm alright with the lynch, but I wouldn't vote for it.

Beilos - Too scummy to be scum?
Ok, I'm going to go over this slowly. This is called Wine in Front of Me, and trying to involk such a thing is considered scummy play, since it shows you're intentionally working on confusion. Anyone that needs to confuse other people into not voting for them means that they don't feel that they can find anyone that the town wants to lynch more than them. This means that you are either Pro-scum, or Anti-town. This is why you are being lynched. Vote Stays.

Cut: Serp's cutting post reminded me that Alert was playing. I hate it when I have to be reminded of who's playing. You're at the same level as Edible, I want to see something good come from you before the day is over or else...

Kanako Yasaka

Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #171 on: May 17, 2009, 08:29:35 PM »
Regarding Mr_Alert, I've worked with him in the past in Masters Servants, and Paranoia. He has a lot of IRL things that suddenly cause him to be away for relatively large amounts of time, so I don't think that should be held against him. On the other hand, his last login was only about 2 hours ago.

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #172 on: May 17, 2009, 08:32:45 PM »
Regarding Mr_Alert, I've worked with him in the past in Masters Servants, and Paranoia. He has a lot of IRL things that suddenly cause him to be away for relatively large amounts of time, so I don't think that should be held against him. On the other hand, his last login was only about 2 hours ago.

And that should a be cause for concern if he can't even come in to unvote.

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #173 on: May 17, 2009, 08:48:40 PM »
In retrospect here, even though I only brought up the bussing possibility, I think Serp could also have spoken about a scumAffinity joining the wagon aspect. The response from Serp on this, lacking followup is pretty evident of an unconvincing vote in the first place.

I don't see this bactrack as a clean one.

Affinity's side of the vote from Serp has just been minor return prod, this was enough to illicit a backtrack from Serp?

I lost confidence in the vote shortly after I responded to you, and kept it there just to gauge Affinity's reaction.  I was intending to remove my vote from him pretty much whatever he said, since Kanguya was looking more scummy to me every moment.  I was switching my vote from an early-day suspect that required a contrived situation to make him scummy to someone who was scummy on his own merit.  The original vote itself was pretty bad (being little more than a prod), but my backtrack was squeaky clean, as I see it.

Zakeri, KY has some convincing scumtells against him.  His following of a popular townie at the time, myself, looks pretty bad.  It's an instinct for newbie scum to attach themselves to a townie, loudly proclaiming "This person is definitely town," 'cause of course the scum know who's town and who's not.  You shouldn't need me to tell you this.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #174 on: May 17, 2009, 08:51:35 PM »
Ok, pesco, first, explain what burden of proof fallacy you see? You did appear to seem to think that Baity was scummy for 2d6 and self voting, but never really explained why.

As for "relative to which point", it's kinda obvious, I'd think. Perhaps you need to go back to the post I'm PbPing, but it's still there.

And I don't really agree with Rou's case. I agree you are scummy though since you've been mostly posting ad hominems and dancing around Rou's points.

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UK's case on Gensokyo Blender is really nice, but it's worrisome because it contains mostly "KY is acting like KY Always does, and that's no good." I'm not a big fan of clearing people just because it's their meta to play badly (for whatever reason), but at the same time, there really isn't an actual scumtell to work with in the whole case. I'm alright with the lynch, but I wouldn't vote for it.

Are you claiming that not posting good opinions, waffling like mad, and overall IIoA are not scumtells?

Regarding Mr_Alert, I've worked with him in the past in Masters Servants, and Paranoia. He has a lot of IRL things that suddenly cause him to be away for relatively large amounts of time, so I don't think that should be held against him. On the other hand, his last login was only about 2 hours ago.

Ok...There are officially too many good targets. I forgot about Alert for a bit, kinda. I vaguely knew he needed to post but not that badly.

Seriously, I'm happy with my Baity vote, want a Kanguya lynch, want Rou to respond please, want pesco to be a tertiary lynch, and want Alert to post and if he doesn't, I probably want him to displace pesco in my list.

Cut by Serp. Hey, that works too :P.


Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #175 on: May 17, 2009, 09:05:17 PM »
Being asked to rationalise Baity's actions is not burden of proof?

Your one word replies to selective quotes mean nothing without the surrounding context. That is why I was asking relative to which post.

Finding me scummy without agreeing with Rou doesn't add up.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #176 on: May 17, 2009, 09:08:20 PM »
Being asked to rationalise Baity's actions is not burden of proof?

Your one word replies to selective quotes mean nothing without the surrounding context. That is why I was asking relative to which post.

Finding me scummy without agreeing with Rou doesn't add up.

Ah, quite a strawman. I don't have to agree with Rou's failed points to find you scummy, now do I? I have my own points, mostly your ad homs and not responding to Rou's points, instead attacking the person.

This post, by the way. Thought you knew

As for rationalizing Baity's actions, that's not what Rou asked. He asked you how precisely he's scummy for the actions you accused them of, and what grand master plan would give him benefit as scum. Since you seemed to think he had one.


Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #177 on: May 17, 2009, 09:21:07 PM »
Your own points aren't particularly fresh. If you don't think Rou's points were good enough, then why does it matter that I didn't respond to said bad points?

Quote from: Rou asked
If you can't come up with some sort of legitimate benefit that Scum!Baity could get from this plan, I'll consider your defense null and void.

It says "Prove this is good scum play" as I was seeing it.

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #178 on: May 17, 2009, 09:46:13 PM »
And now it's time for my least-favourite activity in the world: trying to figure out which of you are scum, and which of you are merely scummy townies. I really wish I had an unlimited dayvig right about now.

@Whoever: I'm not exactly giving BaitySM a free pass. Just that his behaviour is perplexing enough that it wouldn't necessarily warrant an immediate lynch. However, due to today, I am perfectly comfortable with, and even endorse the BaitySM lynch, especially after his horrible post of "I'm going to be a distraction to Town in order to not get lynched yay!".

Quote from: Carthrat
Serp/Baity is my pair at present.
Why are you creating scumpair theories when nobody has flipped yet? It's D1 ffs.

Basically at this point I want BaitySM to be lynched. Not too sure about pesco anymore, need to do a re-read. Need to re-read Affinity's posts again, there's something that's bothering me about them.

Finally,
@mod: Can you prod Mr_Alert? He hasn't posted for in excess of 24 hours

So yeah, I'm fine with Mr_Alert as a third lynch if he won't even show up to unvote Serpentarius or at least justify his vote on him beyond reasons only sufficient to justify a random vote.
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Nietz

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  • Normal Person
Re: Yume Nikki Mafia - Dream 1 (The Guillotine Room)
« Reply #179 on: May 17, 2009, 09:50:53 PM »
Vote count:

pesco47 (4): Edible, Kiro, Roukanken, Alice, BaitySM
Roukanken (1): Serpentarius, Kiro
Alice (0): Carthrat, Zakeri, Affinity
Kanguya Yaraisan (2): UncertainKitten, Affinity, Serpentarius
Serpentarius (2): Mr. Alert, Carthrat
Affinity (0): BaitySM, Serpentarius, Kanguya Yaraisan
Zakeri (0): Alice
UncertainKitten (0): pesco47
BaitySM (4): pesco47, BaitySM, Affinity, UncertainKitten, Zakeri, Kanguya Yaraisan

pesco47 is at L-4.
BaitySM is at L-4.

Not voting: No one.

29 hours remaining.

Mr. Alert has been prodded for inactivity.