Author Topic: Doctor Wars Mafia - Game Over (Read 71624 times)

Serela · « **Reply #330 on:** May 10, 2014, 05:15:43 PM »

Quote from: ActionDan on May 10, 2014, 04:38:51 PM

Ok serela why do you think SB voted Raitaki who had the same role as him even though he stated that doctor claims are likely to be town?

That's not roles roles roles. That's someone contradicting themselves

Okay, I went back and read it again.

You're really, really misrepresenting what happened. There was literally LESS THAN A MINUTE before there was a no lynch due to failure to reach majority. Binary Doc could be town or scum in this setup, and SB had probably come to that conclusion, as the only reason not to hammer Raitaki over no-lynching would be if he was confirmed town tier. SB was voting the other wagon beforehand, so it's not like "oh SB hammered raitaki instead of the other wagon", he was already on the other wagon and there wasn't the votes available to push it through. There was really no other choice.

Serela · « **Reply #331 on:** May 10, 2014, 05:19:44 PM »

Unless you're arguing you think SB should have claimed binary doc with Raitaki to try to encourage people to get off, when scum most likely have a counter to stop them from doccing eachother to confirmed towndom if they were both town... and when scum binary doc wouldn't be that weird.

ActionDan · « **Reply #332 on:** May 10, 2014, 05:26:04 PM »

Well first apparently SB couldn't read anything, so apparently SB wouldn't have come to any conclusions. (though this is not verified and I don't believe it myself)

But if I were town with the thought that claimed doctors in this setup are generally town (which SB professed D2), and if there was a claim that was my exact role (which obviously wouldn't be coincidence) than I would have not lynched it even at the risk of a NL (which seriously isn't the worst thing in the world).

Also I think you're scum serela. you'll have to deal with that.

SB · « **Reply #333 on:** May 10, 2014, 06:09:13 PM »

Dan, I didn't even have time to read Raitaki's claim. I literally got to the thread with maybe 30 seconds left, looked at the votals and blindly voted. For all I knew Raitaki could've claimed to become night 1 innocent child or something.

Raikaria · « **Reply #334 on:** May 10, 2014, 06:42:40 PM »

Just to give an update on my current opinion:

I do not think there can possibly be two town binary docs and myself, a BPV, because that can make the senario almost unwinnable for a two man scum team if the Docs protect each other and I just vest.

Meanwhile, as I said before; a scum binary doc would allow:

- Scum to protect themselves from Vig shots. [Let's say they can self-target too, which would explain the shot on SB failing, even without the possibility of the other scum redirecting Dan to their night target under impression he would confirm himself]
- Scum can use the 'Binary Doc' as an effective strongman if they knew who was being targeted by the town doc, or against a BPV [Hey, me!]

It just makes sense in a setup where there is a BPV, a town Doc and a potential Town Vig for scum to have what is effectively their own Doctor/Strongman combination.

Raikaria · « **Reply #335 on:** May 10, 2014, 06:43:32 PM »

Plus, Doctor Wars. It makes sense if both sides have a Doc simply from flavor. [This i might have no meaning really but I can't help but point it out.]

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #336 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:01:00 PM »

Wait, why the fuck would the vig be scum?

Don't lynch ActionDan please? Scum Vig makes literally no sense here.

Serela · « **Reply #337 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:04:01 PM »

NNR:If Dan was scum he would obviously have lied about being a vig.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #338 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:09:20 PM »

Then- oh right nobody died
But all his lies don't make sense all bundled together. Scum can't be that dumb, right?

If we're massclaiming, I'm vanilla, although I'm kinda mad at DNA for forcing a massclaim.

I'm demotivated too by all this fucking role nonsense, sorry.

Raikaria · « **Reply #339 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:10:17 PM »

Quote from: NekoNekoFever on May 10, 2014, 07:09:20 PM

Then- oh right nobody died
But all his lies don't make sense all bundled together. Scum can't be that dumb, right?

If we're massclaiming, I'm vanilla, although I'm kinda mad at DNA for forcing a massclaim.

I'm demotivated too by all this fucking role nonsense, sorry.

For what it's worth, I don't much like the massclaim either. I only claimed to say 'Hey guys, this could be what Raitaki's role means. Stop sayin we have 2 Docs.'

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #340 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:15:53 PM »

I read all this bullshit and tbh I kinda want to lynch Dan at this point too. All this fucking stupid nest of lies began with his false claim that turned out to do literally nothing.

But at the same time having all these protection roles around doesn't make sense if there's only 1 killer each night, since the chance of docs canceling eachother is pretty low.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #341 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:16:43 PM »

IMO either Dan or SB is scum, though, because the missing piece of the puzzle here is 'why didn't SB die?'

Raikaria · « **Reply #342 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:23:28 PM »

Quote from: NekoNekoFever on May 10, 2014, 07:16:43 PM

IMO either Dan or SB is scum, though, because the missing piece of the puzzle here is 'why didn't SB die?'

Which is what I said at the start of this.

Anyway, we should have a little more insight once BT returns and answers my question.

BT · « **Reply #343 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:27:18 PM »

Votecount is the same. You have 25 hours and 33 minutes. 4 votes are needed for a majority.
(Countdown)

Quote from: Raikaria on May 10, 2014, 07:23:28 PM

Which is what I said at the start of this.

Anyway, we should have a little more insight once BT returns and answers my question.

I didn't answer it, here.

Serela · « **Reply #344 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:30:25 PM »

The post after the one where BT doesn't answer should be sufficient, really. I've never heard of a mod acting otherwise on motk, and I think it'd be weird/bad if a mod did otherwise somewhere else.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #345 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:37:46 PM »

Stop calling him BT, carking catgirl christ, Serela.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #346 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:39:06 PM »

Oh, wait, people mixing up SB and BT have been the last straw on this haystack of a mess.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #347 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:41:03 PM »

I almost don't want to spend another day looking at this idiocy.

Serela · « **Reply #348 on:** May 10, 2014, 07:57:43 PM »

I REALLY DID MEAN BT THAT TIME THOUGH ;_;

Raikaria · « **Reply #349 on:** May 10, 2014, 08:18:32 PM »

Quote from: BT on May 10, 2014, 07:27:18 PM

Votecount is the same. You have 25 hours and 33 minutes. 4 votes are needed for a majority.
(Countdown)
I didn't answer it, here.

My bad, missed that.

ActionDan · « **Reply #350 on:** May 10, 2014, 11:31:00 PM »

After all this the only read that's changed is that I think raikaria is more town. Although dark scared me a bit.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #351 on:** May 11, 2014, 02:02:38 AM »

I didn't want to claim since the one who was leading for the mass claim is kind of the guy we think is scum, but it looks like everybody has already gone except me.

I am a junior surgeon aka town backup. I would get the role of whichever blue role flipped first, so when Raitaki died, I became towns extra binary doc. So we have two...maybe three doctors after all.

On night 1 I expected ActionDan to be interfered with in some way or killed because of his claim, so I sent in my protect action on him.

That's all. Sorry it's not very interesting, but because I was a backup, I thought maybe there were other town doctors in the game as well, so that's why I was hesitant about voting SB.

I think we actually have to lynch ActionDan because he claimed unlimited vig. If he shoots and kills tonight, and scum shoot and kill tonight, then it is game over. If we mislynch a Dan then he can't hit, and it's LYLO in the next day phase. However, if we Dan and he's town, are we just going to lynch SB tomorrow anyway?

However this doesn't account for SB not dying unless there really is a fourth doctor somewhere in the mix that protected SB. I would think at this stage a town doc that protected SB would have come forth by now.

Therefore, I do think there was scum involvement in Dan's action last night - if it was a scum doc, there's no reason for a scum doc to ever cover a towny. So I think it's more likely that Dan was simply misdirected and killed Zak.

This doesn't account for the missing scum hit unless if town!SB really did cover NNR, and scums hit NNR.

That would leave Zak as being hit by Dan, NNR being hit by scums, and everybody's story checks out. However, this story only makes sense if we can prove the existence of a redirect. And thus the reason I was drilling Dan about the details of his messages earlier in the phase.

If anybody else has information they are sitting on, now is the time to come forward.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #352 on:** May 11, 2014, 02:06:40 AM »

I just want to clarify; the reason that scums would have hit NNR instead of Dan is because if Dan was redirected, scums wouldn't have hit him. Meaning my doc on Dan was wasted.

However if you consider scum!Dan hits a Zak and then lies about targeting SB, it's actually a simpler explanation that doesn't require any magical redirects that may or may not exist.

I am probably going to vote Dan because scum!Dan seems more plausible than scum!SB, personally, and also because I don't think town can afford vig mishit if he is telling the truth.

ActionDan · « **Reply #353 on:** May 11, 2014, 06:05:38 AM »

Here's a thought. Let's try not to lynch obvtown because of the boogeyman that is a misvig. At this point I bet my vig would have a bigger chance of hitting scum than the collective. Evidence: how the possibility of the binary docs plan of cross protection would have a fail safe in case one gets killed and this not seeming broken at all to skypal. Like assume raitaki survived the d1 lynch. Assume sb protects him. Raitaki just can't die. And if sb dies. No problem. Town backup. Obviously this goes back to the fact that I think 2 town binary doctors existing simultaneously is imba, but this is just icing on the cake.

And why do you think scum Dan is more plausible than scum sb. Whhhhhhy. You say that so goddamn causally it passes me off.

Raikaria · « **Reply #354 on:** May 11, 2014, 09:37:08 AM »

Sky, I trust Dan is not an idiot who will shoot when it would mean the end of the game.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #355 on:** May 11, 2014, 10:49:43 AM »

I just didn't want to believe it was a 1 v 1 because this was the whole focus of town effort today, when we had players like Raikaria and NNR being way scummier that on gut I want to vote for over this shenanigans business.

While I was shopping I thought about it some more. It actually doesn't matter which one we lynch.

First establish that one of them is scum:

town!Dan was possibly sabotaged, redirected, or had his hit blocked.

Sabotage was ruled out because Dan said his action was successful. How about a redirect?

If alleged town!Dan hits alleged town!SB, and Dan was redirected, where did the hit go? Scum would have been redirecting the guy they thought was a neighbourizer on to either one of their own guys or to somebody who was dead. There is no reason for mafia to redirect Dan, who they thought was a neighbourizer, to another random towny who would still be alive. Dan told us that his hit went through therefore by his own words he cannot have been redirected on to Zak. He *must* have hit SB if his story is true. That means either Dan or SB is lying. This is assuming that scum hits resolve before vig hits.

Therefore it comes down is Dan really a town!vig or a scum!vig. And a flip of either one will give us the answer (and therefore which one is scum) without losing us the game.

Because....

Scenario 1a: SB is town, Dan is scum.
We lynch SB -> Scum!Dan lied about being a vig, therefore there will not be two deaths tonight, and it will not be game over.

Scenario 1b: SB is town, Dan is scum.
We lynch Dan -> Dan is scum, all is well.

Scenario 2a: SB is scum, Dan is town.
We lynch SB -> SB is scum, all is well.

Scenario 2b: SB is scum, Dan is town.
We lynch Dan -> Dan cannot make a hit, there will only be one death at night, and it will not be game over.

In either scenario there will only be one death at night and not game over.

Is this analysis correct?

BT · « **Reply #356 on:** May 11, 2014, 11:18:04 AM »

Votecount is the same. You have 9 hours and 43 minutes. 4 votes are needed for a majority.
(Countdown)

All kills resolve at the same time, be it scum-sourced, town-sourced or ITP-sourced. I'll take this opportunity to remind everyone that this game won't be solved by roles, so take them with a grain of salt and not with a chunk of potassium.

Raikaria · « **Reply #357 on:** May 11, 2014, 01:10:55 PM »

'Scum Vig' is the silliest thing I have ever heard, and I really don't think that AD would have pulled the whole other role thing if he was such a thing.

I already theorized a redirect, or possibly a scum binary doctor that can self-target.

Anyway, I put SB at L-1 before and no-one rushed to hammer him or anything, and it is much closer to the deadline now than it was, and I'm wrapped up with revision for the exam that scares me the most.

##Vote: SB

SB · « **Reply #358 on:** May 11, 2014, 03:37:01 PM »

Please unvote so I can at least not get quickhammered before finishing a reread.

SB · « **Reply #359 on:** May 11, 2014, 03:39:35 PM »

Serela is town. Once he started posting again his content was fine and he reads a lot like Urist!Serela confused by ridiculous role shenanigans, I don't have problems with him anymore.

Raikaria is a tough read for me. While pushing Serela as a lynch for being weak in LYLO is something I can see him doing, the main problem I have is that he didn't really do anything aside from that during day 1. His D2 suspicion of DNA for pushing Raitaki is kinda wonky, there's no way DNA could've known he was a doc. I do think his claim was kinda townie for reasons I outined earlier, but only the context behind it and not the claim itself.

I also just read a bit of DEFCON and Dan's play feels kinda similar to what he was doing there? He hasn't contributed actual scumhunting much at all and it took till the end of D1 to do it, now it's mostly ROLES ROLES ROLES from him. There's also the fact that for him to be telling the truth there would need to be a scum redirect FMPOV and that unlimited vigs in a game as small as this just adds huge swing to it.

With multiple town Doctors protecting each other, sure, it sounds kinda broken in practice, but in reality what do we even have to protect? A vig claim who's probably lying? Also, if I was a scum!BPV or whatever, I would've just claimed hit and assumed there was an SK or something. Unless you want to argue that the scumteam has double binary docs (since self-targetting is a no) then it's pretty clear I'm not mafia? It'd be way easier to just claim vanilla and NOT put myself in this position of OMG SO MANY ROLES when that almost got me killed in Urist.

And for anyone who thinks scum has a Binary Doc, sure, maybe they have one. But that doesn't mean they've claimed it for sure.