Pictures of Birds Mafia - Game Over

[Affinity]

I'm not adverse to one scum on Shadoweh, but I am extremely adverse to making the assumption that scum is on a wagon and lynching systemically throughout those players in search for these scum, which Polaris seems to be doing. Wagons are there for the info; you take the info and use it along with everything else. Polaris hasn't done any of that; he's assuming the situation that there is scum on a wagon and working from there. That's working from a conclusion and fitting your analysis to go with it, not the other way around as it should be. I'm extremely wary of you, Affinity, for doing something similar.

Okay, this clarifies things.  If this is what you are working up to, then fine, we'll stop the scum-wagon thingy here.  Would just like to say that I am not necessarily adverse to the idea of one scum on NNR as well, just that looking at Shadoweh wagon is my first priority. 

The point is that Polaris kept his vote on NNR (rightfully calling his vote on Serela rather tentative, for example), while you did not, unvoting in a situation where every vote counted towards NNR's lynch.  While your explanation after the fact sounds reasonable, I don't think you could expect many to glean all of that off your exchange with NNR, especially when he voted Serela. 

Furthermore saying that he was leaving an opening for switching to Shadoweh sort of pales in comparison to switching to Shadoweh in the first place, and that if there was any time to switch, it would be when Shadoweh was at 6 votes with an hour left in the day, especially when one could blend with the myriad people voting her already and all of a sudden.  There was no need for NNR to claim anything in this case.

Bleh, I just think the possible cases on you, Zakeri, PX, and Serela are far stronger than the ones against the people who voted NNR for D1.  That's what wagon analysis of flipped scum is for.  Perhaps I can look closer at other people on NNR, but whatever. 

[Affinity]

As for my opinion on Shadoweh, I lumped her with Dormio and co, people whom I would have liked to see disappear but not waste a lynch on. I was not very much impressed on her last-minute stuff on NNR either, just that I firmly believed that a magic desperado lynch with no foundation whatsoever could never lynch scum, for scum would not let that happen.

[Serela]

Would just like to say that I am not necessarily adverse to the idea of one scum on NNR as well, just that looking at Shadoweh wagon is my first priority.

Bleh, I just think the possible cases on you, Zakeri, PX, and Serela are far stronger than the ones against the people who voted NNR for D1.  That's what wagon analysis of flipped scum is for.

I'm going to bed shortly, but these are pretty much my viewpoint on the matter as well

sure there could be a scum who was on NNR but it's probably -easier- to find a scum that was on Shadoweh

I'm extremely doubtful that -both- of the other scum would be on NNR, hardbussing him D1 when the Shadoweh lynch was incredibly doable without incrimination would have been too easy. And I'm also extremely doubtful of double scum wagon d1. Double scum wagon d1 is possible but it's NOT what you look for before any other options, without a -very- good reason >_>

[Serela]

hardbussing him D1 when the Shadoweh lynch was incredibly doable without incrimination would have been too easy

proof that I'm too tired to post

meant that it'd be too easy to lynch shadoweh instead etc, reprecussions of letting the lynch go through are much worse, blah blah bedtime

[Conqueror]

Affinity: Okay, fair enough. Can't really defend against being wrong, but at least I understand where you're coming from. I still want Polaris to answer my last query to him when he next gets in though; as it is he's not trying to make a distinction between the different people on the wagon he's voting, or at least he hasn't made such a distinction clear.

Aside from Polaris, I don't really have a problem with the rest of the people on the NNR wagon as is (but pending content today ofc). Hero and IHNN look fine, Dormio is /needs to post more but I don't think he's scummy?, and Affinity looks reasonably town after the latest exchange. My best guess out of ~*the four*~ is still Zak, but I'll look over that tomorrow.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

So I want to lynch Serela and Raikaria.

##Vote Serela

I have no idea how much of this content will be original, but let's roll with it.

Firstly, PX's weird thing at the beginning of the game.

Encouraging a wagon on Serela right as the game starts doesn't do too much to advance it, either.

You're forcing the players to take a side on a player who has done fuck-all this game so far.

Doesn't this look a bit overly defensive of Serela?
Especially when you take into consideration that NNR never voted for or expressed suspicion of PX, so all of his posts surrounding PX's behaviour is nothing but admonishing PX for voting Serela and encouraging others to do so with him.
It looks like he might be picking up something here:

So you're trying to get a policy lynch on Serela because of meta? That's seriously your only reason? And you're serious about this? What happened to actual scumhunting?

... but it amounts to nothing as he dismisses PX in his next post as being right or something?
I just don't understand why NNR would be so fixated on keeping PX from voting for Serela.
There's also the part where NNR votes for Serela for doing nothing, whilst making absolutely no mention of others doing the same thing until it comes to the time where he has to vote Shadoweh as per "not me over me".

Of course, that's all about NNR, what about Serela himself?
He is oh-so-adamant about not lynching NNR for whatever reason, and oh-so-adamant about voteparking Zakeri.
He even admits that he doesn't really have a reason to even vote for Zakeri here:

Zakeri's posts seem like... forgettable as Affinity said? He does a small poke on a few small things and mostly has posted fluff or content that's unimportant. He doesn't explicitly feel like scum, but it's worse then anyone -else- I'm seeing, so it's where I'd place my bets right now.

sure there could be a scum who was on NNR but it's probably -easier- to find a scum that was on Shadoweh

And what the fuck is this shit?

[Serela]

which is easier to find dormio

the bussing scum that may not even actually exist, or the scum riding Shadoweh's end of day rush wagon that is practically guaranteed to contain at least one

Of course, this is polarizing the subject based on wagons a little too far, but whatever, I haven't gotten to my rereads yet because I've been busy and then too tired after I wasn't

In any case, why are you wanting to lynch the person who actually hammered the scum when Shadoweh could totally have been deadline lynched instead, not to mention past experience showing Raikaria will be batshit as either alignment so the silly d1 play is whatever

serious question there by the way, you haven't explained why you want Raikaria lynched yet and I find it to be a questionable prospect so I am highly curious as to your reasoning :D

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

which is easier to find dormio

the bussing scum that may not even actually exist, or the scum riding Shadoweh's end of day rush wagon that is practically guaranteed to contain at least one

Neither. Scum is annoying to find wherever it goes.

In any case, why are you wanting to lynch the person who actually hammered the scum when Shadoweh could totally have been deadline lynched instead, not to mention past experience showing Raikaria will be batshit as either alignment so the silly d1 play is whatever

Clarify what you mean by deadline lynch please.

[I have no name]

Raikaria - a barn owl riding a skateboard - Town Roleclop - left the aviary Night 1

So I want to lynch Serela and Raikaria.

serious question there by the way, you haven't explained why you want Raikaria lynched yet and I find it to be a questionable prospect so I am highly curious as to your reasoning

Read the game pl0x

Anyways bedtime, it's 3 AM so all I'm doing is this snarkpost until tomorrow

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Wait shit.

[PX]

So Serela who is scum? Going to sleep.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

I need to be less busy.
It amuses me that Serela seems to have gone along with it though.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

I guess that explains that nagging feeling I was getting though.

[Serela]

my memory isn't exactly a glorious example of reliability, just ask Shadoweh or Huhwhat

PX:Haven't reread yet but that will happen after I get my sleep, Zak is at the least A Kind Of Bad Read, and conq is TBA but the next most likely that I'll have a bad read on

Anyway, by deadline lynch I mean "Someone on NNR's wagon switches over for the sake of getting anyone lynched before deadline kicks in", I'm not sure what the actual deadline lynch mechanics are with double l-1, maybe HW would flip a coin or something, even so the results of that would probably -still- be more hopeful for scum but not really what I meant

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

A tie or No Lynch results in universal loss.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Also:

So Serela who is scum?

[Serela]

itt dormio can't read my posts (Sure you might not think the answer is adequate but I clearly stated that a better one isn't coming until after sleep, beating dead horse=pointless)

but thanks for the clarification from the rules :D

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

It sounds like a pretty wishy-washy stance on Zakeri. You know, the same one you had yesterday. :derp:

[Shadoweh]

When I said I would post later i meant I have been too busy to sleep and will vote Polaris for being scummy.

##Vote: Polaris

Immediately coming back to seeing Serela and Dormio having serious discussions about why the dead person is scum probably doesn't help my brain. Serela as scum might have actually forgotten who they killed with Dormio acting like he's still alive, but Dormio probably isn't scum for forgetting. So at least there's that.

[Hero999]

PX's clarification was more than enough to clear him for the moment.

On the topic of shadowehgon while I believe it is likely for two scum to be on it, it is most certainly not absolute. Polaris takes wagon analysis as a fact, and his confidence in something that is not truly facts, and mere speculation as said by Conq is worrisome. In a way this can also be seen as an attempt to gain town creds, while the same time attempting to damn every person on the Shadowehgon.

Instead of putting up with Conq's hostility and insanity I would like to pose a question to everyone else.

What do you, personally, think occurred on D1?

- Both scum were on the Shadoweh wagon
- 1 scum was on Shadoweh and 1 scum bussed NNR
- Both scum bussed NNR

It would be nice if you just picked one, but feel free to choose two, indicating the likeliest and the second likeliest.

The first line would be more meaningful if you didn't actually need to type it out. It's like that saying about being the better man just walking away and not suing you re going to be the better man.
If you really want to get into wifom territory, you could also say scum decided to bus each other at every chance they get.
*points at shadoweh's signature*
##Vote: Polaris
Dormio's reasons for voting Serela are very plausible reasons, however I feel that it may be stretching things a little too far. Most of those quotes Dormio used can be also looked at as grasping for straws.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Dormio's reasons for voting Serela are very plausible reasons, however I feel that it may be stretching things a little too far. Most of those quotes Dormio used can be also looked at as grasping for straws.

How so?

[PX]

Currently still at school and will read more in depth later but

ZAKERI WHERE THE HELL ARE YOU?!

[Hero999]

How so?

Some of the quotes you use by NNR give more of a feeling of desperation instead of the defending Serela vibe. Which is what I mean by grasping straws.

[Serela]

Reread!

Polaris is town, would not lynch ++ Partially because of the timing and actual post of voteswitching to NNR, but I generally liked him and thought he was towny looking before then as well, it's just icing. Other examples are things like this. Some Polly Vs. NNR stuff in their posts also looks totally legit as opposed to fake scum pressuring eachother or whatnot

Zakeri

The lumping votes on NNR is making me want to shy away from. Scum is likely on his wagon as of that post.

yes I know I did something similar, but both are suspicious

I think the way this reason to not get on NNR is worse then, say, how Raikaria does, as Raikaria is showing a clear and logical thought process with an explanation of -why- he thinks the NNR wagon is bad, where Zakeri basically just says "NNR has a growing wagon on him, so I don't want to vote him". Raikaria I think looks good, for that matter, as well as also getting complained at by NNR (122~124) in a way I'd imagine would be done in the Scum QT instead of the thread if at all if they were scum, not to mention Raikaria's actual response

not much else to say on zak because he -hasn't posted today-,  I know you have this thing where you don't think you can make a post so then you just vanish for a couple days, but come in and make a bad post if you have to :C Any post at all is better then none!

PX is active and such D1, but I kind of don't like a lot of the stuff he actually says, so I'm kind of waffley on him. But with the activity and such I think there's better targets to go after for now.

Affinity has been going strong the whole game, as well as put NNR to l-2 when shadoweh was l-1 which is again icing on the cake of a already-good-read

If scum -were- bussing NNR, it's probably Hero or Dormio, but I'm not particularly interested in either right now, maybe in the future

I don't really like Conq's D1 but I'm not sure -how- I don't like it :c D2 at first the only real complaint is all the people he's attacking are my town reads

I realllly don't like Hero's semilatest post for some reason.

As for "who is scum", Hero/Conq/Zak are definitely the ones I'd be happy to see lynched today, but I kind of need to think about it more to figure out -which- I want to see lynched I guess? Plus I don't really have anything resembling a case on Conq, practically haven't commented on Hero at all, and Zak is well kind of nonexisting so there's not much more I can say in addition to what I said yesterday then what's in this post already

In other news, I got hired for a job and I start Thursday :D

[WHMZakeri]

##Vote: Serela

Conqueror's arguments, while fundamentally sound, seem to be kind of desperate sounding to me. I've been rereading them, trying to look for something I can point out, but the whole thing is completely null-tell.

I don't like the voting trend on Polaris. It's tempting for townies to just want to limit themselves to what we know for a fact, and eliminate as many suspects as possible. I'm feeling kind of the same way myself, actually, but I know it's not that simple. I'm very wary of the people that are trying to claim "speaking about circumstantial evidence as if it were fact". There's no reason to go after somebody just because they sound confident in their analysis, especially given that all evidence is circumstantial to begin with (not counting the flips).

Judging from the NK, I'm going to say flat out that it's likely to be impossible for Shadoweh to be mafia. Even ignoring affinity's "Scum would have to be complete retards to allow two scum wagons day one", Raikaria being the NK is very telling. Scum's priorities for NK is "Most likely to target scum" and "Least likely to get lynched" in that order, and no offense to Karia but I'm going to assert its the latter. This means that Raikaria is likely seen by the mafia as "The person who switched from a townie to hammer our bussing target". I doubt Raikaria would be top priority if Shadoweh was also scum.

Top picks are Serela and Conq. PX and Hero are also pretty bad, but they both have slight town vibes from day 2 alone so I'll look into them more when I get new flips/if somehow they're the leading wagon tomorrow.
Yes, I know I didn't give reasons for Serela, but Dormio summed it up nicely, and also seriously, Serela, do something. Fuck. this is going to be worse than a terrible post. I might as well vote myself for this post now. As for my being wary of NNR's lynchwagon, I just felt that the people jumping onto it were doing so in a scummy way. I'll have to reread it in order to get anything specific, but I doubt that'd be more important than getting a scumread.

Prods NNR on some minor issue here while not voting him (when he was at only 3 votes), and is completely satisfied with his answer. Goes after Shadoweh here once possibility opens up (when he had not once mentioned him before, correct me if I'm wrong),

I was pushing NNR because I didn't like how he was trying to cast suspicion on PX for trying to force the game forward. whenever someone forces the game forward, it always looks awkward and clunky, so scum can always tap into it to try and make the person look bad. The reason I dropped it was because He dropped it saying it was all he had, and then moved on to something I thought was a better vote.

I also go after Shadoweh Here, Here, and here. Sorry that it's only day one strong, though.

What Zak and Conq have in common is that they both prodded NNR for nit-picky reasons (Conq's post here) and then seemed to be pacified by NNR's flurry of posts starting from here, then both of them switched to Shadoweh.  In hindsight, it merely seems like an artificial Q&A compared to Polaris' and co's efforts, and I would like them to tell us what exactly made NNR look good to them afterwards

Does that mean Conq and I are a Scumteam then? If not, then which do you think is more likely to be scum?

[Serela]

Not actually making anything new here (pretty tired but forcing self to not nap, gotta fix sleep schedule), but just clarifying why my opinion on Hero seems to flip on it's head within my last post; when I comment on Hero's recent post, it was from getting cut by it, and then I forget to change my previous comment on it earlier in the post, hence me saying I'm not interesting and then suddenly putting him in my list of "people I'd be happy to lynch"

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

(3) Polaris - Conqueror, Shadoweh, Hero999
(2) Serela - Dormio, Zakeri
(1) Conqueror - Polaris
(1) Shadoweh - PX
(1) Zakeri - Affinity
Not Voting (2): I have no name, Serela

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to hammer. You have about 24 hours left in the day.

[Serela]

it was from getting cut by it

stupidity from being sleepy and forgetful at the same time, obviously I wasn't cut by a post from like 9 hours ago, but I didn't remember it or hadn't read it in depth or something, I don't remember

also fuck, three votes on Polaris? I will kick people if we actually lynch him, everyone voting him should go respond to the paragraph I made w/references on why Polaris is totally town

[Shadoweh]

Well who should people be voting, Serela? :V If you want wagons you gotta throw down for a show down! (still asleep am sleeping as type)

[Serela]

I already voiced opinion on who I want lynched

I know I haven't actually gotten around to articulating -why- much on anyone other then Zakeri though, or I'd have gone into that further

In any case, it's not like people almost ever listen to me, and getting them off Polaris is a step in the right direction, you take what you can get :D