Author Topic: Adorable Game of Mafia (Everyone wins!) (Read 100517 times)

Edible · « **Reply #720 on:** August 12, 2012, 05:51:57 AM »

Fabulouscount is unchanged. Raitaki has been prodded.

You have 16 hours or something, I'm bad at math. I don't even know what time it is ;_;

Shadoweh · « **Reply #721 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:09:42 AM »

NNR: Until you've read a 40 page Day 1 you have nothing to complain about.

Having read the walls and checked out the super cool cases, I have decided to ~~vote Raitaki for sleeping through them~~ show my appreciation of fashion to the ##FABULOUS huh what. Out of the cases I believe his right now are the ones most based on defending other players and using the word dichotomy way too much. Kilga, to put it oddly, isn't usually this much of a jerk as scum. BT.. I like this show and I dont want tosell his radiot. D:

Raitaki · « **Reply #722 on:** August 12, 2012, 02:48:38 PM »

GURK
Ok let me do a once more from the ~~top~~ middle and see if I come up with anything :getdown:

Raitaki · « **Reply #723 on:** August 12, 2012, 04:24:00 PM »

Lemme list a few quirks I've found while rereading...

Quote from: Amae Koromo

BT lynch does not look like it's happening, so
Unvote
Vote: huhwhat

Consider this more Not me Over Me, as I don't really have anything solid and prefer BT.

+ This post and the anti-BT ones before it look like distancing from BT to me. Pushed for BT lynch for a (short) while, say that HW lynch isn't happening blah blah blah, then after seeing only two of the other players not being willing to vote BT, he decided that a BT lynch was impossible and switched to HW after TWICE admitting that he had nothing concrete against HW. Assuming town!BT, scum!PX would have just left his vote with BT imo, as it would make him look scummy to switch to HW without good reason, and the people not voting HW at the time weren't fond of a HW lynch either. This looks like a doomed PX trying to distance from BT, then pulling out to not draw too much attention to BT to me.

Quote from: Kilgamayan on August 08, 2012, 03:56:23 AM

Position: At least one of Shadoweh and huh what is scum.

Quote from: Kilgamayan on August 09, 2012, 06:15:36 PM

Jumping in really quick to say that I prefer a PX lynch to a huh what lynch. They're equals in terms of raw end-of-day positioning but I've felt huh what's cases have been stronger throughout the game than PX's have been. Stuff I brought up near the end of Day 2 also still stands.

+ If you think at least one between Shadoweh and HW is scum, why did you only focus on Shadoweh and not point out why HW is scummy as well? Furthermore, some time afterwards you suddenly declared that you'd prefer a PX lynch over a HW lynch for reasons that already have been valid throughout the game without making any additional points against PX. What was the reason of suspecting PX more after you've declared HW as one of your major suspects (and not making a case against him)? Is this because you thought if either BT or PX flips scum they must be scumbuddies, and if yes, why?

------------------------------
Blargh. Gone for the next 4 hours or so. Again ;_;
Will finish my once-again-from-the-~~top~~middle later. The parts I did read manage to bump Kilga up my list of lynch targets, and he's now right behind BT. For the time being, I'll ##FABULOUS BT.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #724 on:** August 12, 2012, 04:46:28 PM »

Raitaki: By the time I had switched to BT, it was because I had been convinced a BT/PX scum team was possible despite my initial decision that one of HW and Shadowy had to be scum due to the IHNN kill. Once I opened that up to myself, I preferred a PX lynch to a HW lynch because PX was individually scummier. I didn't necessarily think they has to be scumbuddies, but I found it the most likely possibility at the time.

The original Shadowy case didn't include HW stuff mostly because suspecting them was based on the IHNN kill rather than a buildup of scummy things from both of them and I felt exposing Shadowy was more important, and partly because I didn't have the time - I needed to prepare for and then properly go to bed so I wasn't dead at work the next morning.

BT · « **Reply #725 on:** August 12, 2012, 05:11:42 PM »

Quote from: Kilgamayan on August 11, 2012, 08:26:24 PM

...I've officially lost track of where you're going with this. What is this about a list of people that did scummy things and why does it matter in the way you are presenting this point? I already said I don't have any such thing to "fall back on" because, AGAIN, if I tried to serve any such case up in LYLO and not do anything else with it I'd be lynched. If you're saying that me bringing up scummy things Shadoweh did during a total LYLO reread with some of those scummy things overlapping things I mentioned about her in that large post is scummy, then...I don't even know what the hell.

At one point you suspected me, Shadoweh, PX and to some degree huhwhat. What I 'felt', you could say, was that you were leaving options open.

Quote from: Kilgamayan on August 11, 2012, 08:26:24 PM

Source on this mod clarification, because that's not what the opening post says:
...
Loses "the ability", not "the ability on even nights". Seems like the cop is gone for good after a D2 investigation to me.
...
No guarantee the cop hasn't investigated, say, Affinity, nor a guarantee that the cop hadn't investigated the Godmother. Also the cop has clearance regardless, so cop guessing on N2 means forgoing killing a confirmed town they know for the chance to killing a confirmed town they don't know. What if they miss? Then Omba's still around and the cop is still lurking somewhere.

Mmm, no, I said that because I realized that I was wrong, I wasn't arguing about it. Anyway, I can't see this point as conclusive either way. PX/Kilga isn't made more likely by the choice of NK but it isn't made unlikely either. I can't enter the minds of the scumteam and figure out why they chose to kill IHNN instead; there may have been a very compelling reason to, which I am unaware of.

To be frank, a lot of your recent points have been similar or identical to "scum have done this before". Yes, Mafia is a game in which anything can very well happen. What's the likelihood, though? Bringing up possibilities is one thing, but showing that they're the likely truth behind what's going on is another.

Quote from: Raitaki on August 12, 2012, 04:24:00 PM

Lemme list a few quirks I've found while rereading...+ This post and the anti-BT ones before it look like distancing from BT to me. Pushed for BT lynch for a (short) while, say that HW lynch isn't happening blah blah blah, then after seeing only two of the other players not being willing to vote BT, he decided that a BT lynch was impossible and switched to HW after TWICE admitting that he had nothing concrete against HW. Assuming town!BT, scum!PX would have just left his vote with BT imo, as it would make him look scummy to switch to HW without good reason, and the people not voting HW at the time weren't fond of a HW lynch either. This looks like a doomed PX trying to distance from BT, then pulling out to not draw too much attention to BT to me.

Then what would be the point of PX's distancing in the first place? Switching for no reason would ruin that entirely, more or less. By the by, it's my opinion that PX was doomed at that time anyway. Also, my own wagon wasn't the epitome of likelihood either. The only lynch with a sizable chance of happening at the time was PX's. (see: PX was doomed at the time anyway)

Edible · « **Reply #726 on:** August 12, 2012, 05:14:33 PM »

Vote Count: teamwork edition

Kilgamayan (2): huh what, BT
BT (2): Kilgamayan, Raitaki
huh what (2): NekoNekoRex, Shadoweh

Not voting: Nobody!

You have ~5.45 hours remaining. With 6 in play, it takes 4 votes to launch.

BT · « **Reply #727 on:** August 12, 2012, 05:16:31 PM »

Oh. And I don't plan on switching to HW. Shadoweh, I'm actually curious as to what you're referring to by Kilga being a jerk, since I don't feel that he has been one, if that's relevant to anything.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #728 on:** August 12, 2012, 06:39:39 PM »

I don't particularly feel like arguing in Mafia right now.

I kind of want to kneejerk OMGUS Shadoweh because that post where she voted me is really flimsy given that she had 24 hours and then failed to take in account flips because "my cases are based on defending people" (not true) and "Kilga is a jerk" (also not true).

@Kilga: I already said I think the lack of content makes the D1 vote look more like a player placing their vote somewhere useful before leaving than an intentional bus. D2 is a mark against him but doesn't undo the cred from the rest of his patterns which still make him have to be incredibly gutsy-suicidal to be scum as far as I'm concerned.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #729 on:** August 12, 2012, 06:46:25 PM »

Raitaki, I'm pretty sure PX's BT-HW-BT waffle is worthless. PX is pretty self-aware and would realize he was a sinking ship at that point. Switching between wagons for no visible reason to WIFOM people after his death is kinda the usual from scum-him. At the least it should be ignored, at most it implies BT is town who PX wanted to set up.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #730 on:** August 12, 2012, 07:05:24 PM »

Quote from: BT on August 12, 2012, 05:11:42 PM

At one point you suspected me, Shadoweh, PX and to some degree huhwhat. What I 'felt', you could say, was that you were leaving options open.

But all that would still go out the window in LYLO, so...?

Unless you mean throughout the course of the game, in which case this is why I try to justify opinion changes when it comes to votes.

Quote from: BT on August 12, 2012, 05:11:42 PM

To be frank, a lot of your recent points have been similar or identical to "scum have done this before". Yes, Mafia is a game in which anything can very well happen. What's the likelihood, though? Bringing up possibilities is one thing, but showing that they're the likely truth behind what's going on is another.

If you're going to ask about probabilities, I will say that, in my experience, scum have tried to tie themselves to innocent townies in the event of that scum's death far more often than not., especially when the scum is under pressure but not yet a forgone lynch. Obviously I know for sure that PX was trying to set me up as a mislynch following his death, but looking at pure outsider empirical evidence the odds are still a good deal greater than 50%.

Quote from: huh what on August 12, 2012, 06:39:39 PM

@Kilga: I already said I think the lack of content makes the D1 vote look more like a player placing their vote somewhere useful before leaving than an intentional bus. D2 is a mark against him but doesn't undo the cred from the rest of his patterns which still make him have to be incredibly gutsy-suicidal to be scum as far as I'm concerned.

Then did you ever address this and why you think it's wrong (since you must think it's wrong if you think the Serela vote was a suicidal bus)?

Quote from: Kilgamayan on August 09, 2012, 01:57:09 AM

I do now find myself wondering about BT's Serela vote. It came when the wagons were tied, but the NNR wagon was gaining momentum, and NNR had already voted Serela, so really NNR was effectively a vote closer to lynch. Raitaki was also on the Serela wagon and was probably the most unpredictable opinion/vote at that time due to being a newbie used to a different style of play while we're still on Day 1, so it was hardly a guarantee he'd stay on Serela. In retrospect, BT's vote-then-leave is less risky as a bus than it seemed at the time for these reasons. The one thing that bothers me is that I don't know why he wouldn't try to justify it more than he did if bussing was really his intention.

If you plan on telling me that BT's vote doomed Serela or some such then I will want to see gobs of evidence for it. Point out people that were definitely going to vote for Serela over NNR, as well as people voting Serela that had no chance of changing their minds, as well as people voting NNR over Serela that had a reasonable chance of changing their minds.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #731 on:** August 12, 2012, 07:37:45 PM »

Hm. Since Affinity wouldn't have been around to switch, most scenarios I can think of end in tied votes with you as tiebreaker. Shadoweh and Rex obviously weren't switching, and IHNN and Raitaki had expressed disinterest, so people on Serela migrating was unlikely. Scum couldn't tell which wagon you would have preferred at the time, so counting on the Rex vote pulling ahead after BT's vote is pretty risky and explicitly puts scum in a position where they have no control or expectation of what's going to happen. If they didn't care what happened to Serela then it's plausible.

If Affinity somehow was going to be around to switch then Serela was basically screwed.

Ultimately I still don't think scum BT is plausible in conjunction with the rest of his play, though - again, he'd have to be making a move to gain town cred, followed by a switch that would look horrible with PX's flip, and then on D3 he hardbusses PX with the knowledge that people want him dead and no reason to expect a PX flip would out-WIFOM people instead of making him look even worse based on the end of D2. Buddy PX is trying to make it look like they're together with the HW switch during all this too.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #732 on:** August 12, 2012, 07:53:13 PM »

So, that Kilga vote of mine that still exists:
I still don't buy the dichotomy being AOK. I understand where he's coming from with it applying to him and being personal, but if he didn't want to push it on others... why didn't he just make it a side remark instead of giving it his own post? "I wouldn't be surprised if one of Shadoweh and HW were scum, since they're still alive, the cop died over them and I wouldn't expect anybody else to figure it out though. Also I understand if people think this applies to me too." would have summed it up quickly and not even required its own post. If the dichotomy was supposed to be entirely personal I don't see the need to give it its own flashy explanation, especially coming from somebody who values being concise.

Can't really respond to claims of him not really having the time since how much time one has isn't alignment-related, but I think that Kilga's late D2 PX vote should have at least compelled him to split what little time he had between reading BT and PX more evenly.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #733 on:** August 12, 2012, 08:06:05 PM »

And since I never addressed this: NNR, if scum!HW wanted to make a defensive kill, why would he shoot Omba and not you? You both had basically negative chances of getting lynched, only Omba was barely doing anything to push his case D3 and less likely to tunnel than you, given that he wasn't the one who said "I think HW/PX are the scumteam" at the end of the day.

BT · « **Reply #734 on:** August 12, 2012, 08:10:59 PM »

Would also like to point NNR to this if he's missed it.

Quote from: BT on August 11, 2012, 03:11:15 PM

In that case, though, HW #545 is completely nonsensical. Town were onto PX on D2, suddenly they're off, buddy PX sets up future Shadoweh vote one post above, obvious time to make a solid PX case. At the very least, he said he suspected PX and Kilga, so the reason his priority (PX over Kilga) wasn't flipped so that town continue to derp is nonexistent. It'd have to be a deliberate attempt to bus on D3 when a mislynch was super probable.

Can stay online for no longer than 20 minutes.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #735 on:** August 12, 2012, 08:55:28 PM »

Quote from: BT on August 12, 2012, 08:10:59 PM

Can stay online for no longer than 20 minutes.

Quote

Last Active:
Today at 01:48:01 pm

:wat:

also we kinda only have 2 hours left, just saiyan

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #736 on:** August 12, 2012, 08:56:48 PM »

Quote from: huh what on August 12, 2012, 08:06:05 PM

And since I never addressed this: NNR, if scum!HW wanted to make a defensive kill, why would he shoot Omba and not you? You both had basically negative chances of getting lynched, only Omba was barely doing anything to push his case D3 and less likely to tunnel than you, given that he wasn't the one who said "I think HW/PX are the scumteam" at the end of the day.

Omba has a power role

Anyways, I've put a lot of thought into this game day and since we're now at the most ridiculous triple even wagon ever I'm going to be the one to do something about it.

##Unvote
##FABULOUS: Kilgamayan (L-1)
Reasons for voting BT are just flimsy, all points aside. When only the newb can buy a case you know there's no hope for it. It's clearly a gambit to prevent a HW=>Kilga lynch lineup, but it's not going to work.

Huhwhat I can leave off the hook for now, although I do completely intend to lynch him if I live tomorrow (although I don't think I will) in the off chance Kilga flips town (at this point I doubt it)

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #737 on:** August 12, 2012, 08:58:05 PM »

Omba's power role couldn't actually do anything with all the other power roles dead, though.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #738 on:** August 12, 2012, 08:59:30 PM »

It's good cover

Shadoweh · « **Reply #739 on:** August 12, 2012, 09:16:07 PM »

Quote from: BT on August 12, 2012, 05:16:31 PM

Oh. And I don't plan on switching to HW. Shadoweh, I'm actually curious as to what you're referring to by Kilga being a jerk, since I don't feel that he has been one, if that's relevant to anything.

He certainly hasn't been nice to people. I don't get the impression Kilga is here to make friends, which is different from how understanding he was as Tenshi, and similar to how he played in Angel Beats. If I were to just take the votes alone I would call him the scum, but I just can't do it. The fact that you guys haven't noticed how snipey Kilga has been to me makes me hate you all.

Huh what on the other hand has a habit of giving up when he's scum, and his fuckitall post actually has me more convinced that he's scum then town. He's also spent more time looking at the whys of why townies been doing things then what makes people scum. I do not feel the power of jesus in him today.

Edible · « **Reply #740 on:** August 12, 2012, 09:18:45 PM »

Vote Count: Kitties jumping in slow-motion edition

Kilgamayan (3): huh what, BT, NekoNekoRex
BT (2): Kilgamayan, Raitaki
huh what (1): Shadoweh

Kilgamyon is at L-1!

Not voting: Nobody!

You have ~1.75 hours remaining. With 6 in play, it takes 4 votes to launch.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #741 on:** August 12, 2012, 09:22:05 PM »

The reason I posted something along the lines of "fuckit" is because I've re-read BT while waffling like twenty times trying to listen to people pushing his case but still don't think he makes sense as scum and it's kinda annoying.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #742 on:** August 12, 2012, 09:25:05 PM »

NNR: Why are my reasons for the BT vote flimsy? I can't do dialogue with generic buzzwords.

##Unvote, ##FABULOUS: huh what since I would rather not die and it appears I can't get BT lynched. Not really convinced HW is scum but I'm not convinced he's townier than me.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #743 on:** August 12, 2012, 09:42:32 PM »

Heading out, will not be back before deadline, but will have phone and will try to pay attention.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #744 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:00:06 PM »

It's just too far-reaching to make any sense. BT's not good enough to superbus anyone and take the game, and I don't think he'd bother risking it when he's not going to get much town cred from the act.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #745 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:04:25 PM »

You're giving him that town cred now! <_<

I don't get the argument (from anyone) that BT was at major risk of carrying a superbus win home after my Shadoweh vs. HW post; knowing PX was leaking buddying poison in my direction, he would have known I could get lynched over that post after PX flipped, and with NNR refusing to give up on HW despite all counterarguments, there's his LYLO mislynch.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #746 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:05:12 PM »

"BT at major risk" meaning that he would have had an extremely tough time doing so.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #747 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:07:05 PM »

I'd argue that PX was buddying Shadoweh, not you. He was all "yep Shadoweh looks pretty shiny town I just can't see her as scum because (reasons), also Kilga's alright too". You were more of an afterthought / filler opinion.

Also for the record the only times I've given up as scum were when a win was nearly impossible (dorf fort) and when a win seemed nearly impossible and I was under heavy stress for non-game reasons (psycho prophecy). A win is currently not impossible for scum-me and I am not currently under heavy stress for any reason.

Raitaki · « **Reply #748 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:08:09 PM »

Hm...Think I'll drop the BT vote for now. I'm not sure on anyone yet (except for NNR = town), and anyhow it doesn't seem BT is gonna be lynched today. ##Unvote

asdasd DnD session already started and deadline coming near with the 2 prime bandwagons being people who pretty much are on the same footing in my pov. argh

-cut-

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #749 on:** August 12, 2012, 10:09:57 PM »

And for anyone that still wants to claim BT wouldn't have been good enough to make that judgment call, remember that he had PX alive at the time, who might have. I talked to Edible after PX got lynched D1 in Affinity's game and he thought PX's game was good and blamed everyone else for not thinking it through.