Path of Radiance Mafia -Game Over-

[Shadoweh]

Off-topic from my current rereading of Dan (Interesting fact, Dan's first post brings attention to everyone but PX) and more related to my vote:

Going to have to agree that people shouldn't assume that the Hele wagon was scum-motivated, because he really WAS scummy and it was easy for town and scum alike to jump on his wagon.

This is horrible and you should feel horrible for pushing this. So should Affinity. What you are suggesting is that we should ignore the flips and continue like nothing happened. Helepolis was town. Rawr was town. Serela was town. Some of the people making cases and voting them were scum. Finding the bullshit and filtering it out is the only way to tell the mafiates from the town.

A Conq-Affinity scumteam? I don't find that likely in the slightest.

Why not?  :toot:

Now, if we keep with this assumption, (along the assumption that I, myself, am town, which is something I am going to be assuming!) we're left with two scum (and a third party?)

The one who brings up the third party is the third party! In seriousness, if you were considering this for real, it would have made your point against Pesco more realistic. As it stands you used the forbidden words without thinking about them. What makes you suspect there's a third party at this point?

[Conqueror]

Checking in, will post in a few hours.

BT, read Dormio/PX interactions on D1 for stuff that I think makes Dormio town. I'll elaborate on this later.

That said, Shadoweh, I don't think the particular exchange you linked means much. Remember BGoM?

[Conqueror]

Dormio, what sets apart Zakeri's reaction to the votes on his wagon at the end of D3 from my reaction to the early votes on me in D2?
If you think I'm town despite the defense of PX, what makes Zakeri scum for something similar?

[Shadoweh]

Yeah, I remember it. Dormio made up reasons to attack me and held onto them like wildfire. Here he brings up logical reasons and doesn't immediately attack on them, instead waiting for a reply that got lost in the wake of trying to lynch Dan and me.

Unless you're saying Dormio trying to lynch me is a scum tell. It might be!

[Conqueror]

Unless you're saying Dormio trying to lynch me is a scum tell. It might be!

Nah, pretty sure that's just a Dormio tell. I do think he's likely to be town.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Dormio, what sets apart Zakeri's reaction to the votes on his wagon at the end of D3 from my reaction to the early votes on me in D2?
If you think I'm town despite the defense of PX, what makes Zakeri scum for something similar?

I think of you as probably town for other reasons.

Zakeri's reaction to getting two votes on himself seemed unnaturally angry to me.
He didn't refute the reasoning either, all he did was assert that lynching not Helepolis/Conq would be bad.

[Pesco]

Conq target and results whar?

[Conqueror]

Conq target and results whar?

:ohdear:

I was unable to leave my room last night.

Watched Shadoweh.

[Pesco]

You're lame and a perv.

Why Shadoweh?

[Conqueror]

Because Shadoweh is obvtown by nightplay (and dayplay, to a lesser extent).

[Affinity]

This is horrible and you should feel horrible for pushing this. So should Affinity. What you are suggesting is that we should ignore the flips and continue like nothing happened. Helepolis was town. Rawr was town. Serela was town. Some of the people making cases and voting them were scum. Finding the bullshit and filtering it out is the only way to tell the mafiates from the town.

Not getting this when the reasons for voting them were so obvious and easy that anyone could spout convincing reasons regarding their lynch, whether genuinely or not.  The bullshit comes in the explanation of one's choice over the other between two wagons and the jumps in between, which did happen with PX regarding Serela and Dormio D1, but certainly not Helepolis and Conq D3, where everyone on the Helepolis wagon did not want to see Conq lynched.  Of course, if anyone can find this 'bullshit' you speak of, then I would be happy to listen, but as far as I know, the above school of thought is pretty wrong as a general rule (e.g not the only way).

===

I'm quite worried about how Dormio seems to drift from day to day (up to D3) without much of a connecting thread between them, assuming and dropping numerous stances randomly and tunneling on them one at a time. (e.g essence of each day; D1: Conq is scummy for a long time; but since no interest, Shadoweh is scummy, but since vigclaim, not me over me on Serela D2: I think Conq and Shadoweh are fine now, let's go for BT and clear PX. D3: I think BT is sort of cleared because WIFOM, let's go after Helepolis.  D4: BT might be scum but still, WIFOM, let's go after Zakeri) 

While it's not bad on its own, his politically correct, untelegraphed case on Zakeri today is just another example of this pattern.  There's really nothing to say except the above pattern is one preferred by scum; the ability to survive from day to day holding a temporary stance with some degree of freedom as to who to lynch among the playerpool, etc.  I would also be fine with lynching him today, though for now, I'd rather go for Zakeri and Conq.

[Pesco]

Because Shadoweh is obvtown by nightplay (and dayplay, to a lesser extent).

Tells us nothing but whatever.

I disagree with Hele being outright scummy yesterday. It could be put down to bad play, but nothing that furthered a self-preservation motive. He was willing to lynch himself in a sort of noob sense of taking responsibility. It's AtE and doesn't help scum to win. When you say he was scummy, I still say his wagon was scum motivated because they can get their votes on him easily.

By the final votes, suspects should be Dormio, Conq, Zak and Shadoweh. Shadoweh aside for vig cred, Conq is my prime carry over from yesterday. Zak looks like a solid second choice for stuff like

I didn't have too many solid reasonings in the first place. That's why I wanted Helepolis lynched more.

Shadoweh: Why BT today over Zak when you tried to make a quickwagon on him yesterday?

[Conqueror]

I disagree with Hele being outright scummy yesterday. It could be put down to bad play, but nothing that furthered a self-preservation motive. He was willing to lynch himself in a sort of noob sense of taking responsibility. It's AtE and doesn't help scum to win. When you say he was scummy, I still say his wagon was scum motivated because they can get their votes on him easily.

If you disagreed with Hele being outright scummy yesterday you should have said something to that extent. You never did, so I'm inclined to doubt your sincerity on this opinion.
Willingness to lynch oneself is a noobtell, not an alignment tell. He said he would, but in the end he kept his vote squarely on me. Again, you never brought any of this up yesterday while it was going on.
AtE is something else entirely and is always aimed at self-preservation, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

Both wagons were scum-motivated. I'd lynch myself over Zakeri to knock some sense into you people because of the way some of you are retelling the story of D3. Scum on Hele's wagon is certainly possible but it's not a given. So I'm wary of your pigeonholing.

[Shadoweh]

It's not like anyone argued Hele's wagon yesterday was bad or anything. 
I think I saw Affinity disagreeing though I haven't read his post yet, so I'm gonna say it again. People 'Look scummy' because people say they look scummy. Helepolis looked like flailing town. Certain parties, let's call them 'The Meanies', wanted us to interpret his flailiness as inner Meanieness, and therefore encouraged us to lynch someone for 'looking meanie'. People who are 'obviously meanies' are MORE likely to have The Meanies voting for them because of how easily justifiable it is!

Pesco: Yesterday I just wanted something else people might go for. Either BT or Zakeri would have done.  Right now BT is voting Dormio, who is so obviously town from PX interactions alone his blood is green, based on a case from Day 1. At least as far as I know that was the last time he ever updated his case on Dormio.
At the moment I'm deciding how much PX's interactions and my wariness of Affinity goes against the terrible taste in my mouth I get when I read Dan's first post. I don't think lynching either is bad, but BT is preferrable for now. We'll see how I feel after I'm done wagon-analysis. Actually, I'm considering the theory that as long as we lynch BT, Zakeri and possibly Conqueror in a row, we win. Affinity is the only X factor in my calculations.

From the perspective of all the wagons.. (I'm even being nice and pretending I'm questionable in them)

ED1:
Voting:
PX (1): Affinity
Huh What (3): Bardiche, Conq, Pesco
Serela (1): ActionDan
Conqueror (1): Dormio
ActionDan (5): Huh What, PX, Shadoweh, Serela, Trickysticks  (L-2)
Dormio (2): BT, nurse rawr

Mid Day 1:
Voting:
Serela (3): Huh What, Shadoweh, PX
Zakeri (1): Trickysticks
Dormio (2): Affinity, Bardiche
Shadoweh (4): Pesco, Conq, Dormio, nurse rawr (L-3)
Trickysticks (1): Zakeri

End Day 1:
Voting:
Serela (7): Shadoweh, Dormio, Pesco, Huh What, Conq, Zakeri, nurse rawr
Zakeri (1): Trickysticks
Dormio (5): Affinity, Bardiche, Serela,  BT, PX

Mid Day 2, Pre-Exodus:
Voting:
PX (5): Huh What, Pesco, Affinity, nurse rawr, Bardiche (L-2)
Huh What (2): PX, Zakeri
BT (3): Dormio, Shadoweh, Conq
Conq (1): BT
nurse rawr (1): Helepolis

End Day 2:
Voting:
PX (1): Pesco
Huh What (2): PX, Zakeri
Conq (2): BT, Bardiche
nurse rawr (7): Helepolis, Shadoweh, Huh What, Dormio, Conq, nurse rawr, Affinity

Day 3:
Voting:
Helepolis (5): Huh What, Dormio, Conq, Zakeri, Shadoweh
Conq (3): Pesco,  BT, Affinity
BT (1): Helepolis

.... I can't get it out of my head. It's implausable for there to be NO scum voting for PX. Pesco, what do you think of Affinity at this point? Either you're scum or he is. Believe it or not I'd rather vote him over you.

##Unvote
##VOTE: AFFINITY

If you take my word for it, all four of the wagons Conq and Dormio have been on have been town. The only unprovable one is BT, but they end up together on every single one. This makes one of them being scum highly likely. If you're read my predisposition about hugging Dormio, this puts Conq somewhere awkward. If you combine it with "Affinity is a super scum superbusser who loves being third on his buddies" it makes disco lights flash everywhere.

The kill and the roleblock don't fit in combination. If the watcher is roleblocked, scum isn't going to aim their kill to dodge the watcher. Conquerizor, in your opinion, if you were roleblocked and unable to watch, why did scum leave myself and Pesco, who are unlikely to be lynched, alive over huh what? Did you consider watching someone else in order to out-wifom the wifom?

Going back to BT: Managing to be off of every single major wagon during the day, and being off of all the end lynches is a bad sign. It speaks to how outdated his votes have been. On Day 1 perhaps this is forgivable since both wagons were large enough to go to lynch. The end of Day 2 is less forgivable because the threat of no-lynch was high and practically starting a new wagon that late needing that many votes.. Day 3 is equally unforgivable to me because I made it clear I wasn't going to hammer Conqueror. If he thought Helepolis was so scummy (and according to today he did) he could have made that much clearer by being the one to man up and switch his vote instead of waiting for the confirmed vig to do it.

About Zakeri: PX and Zakeri were voting together on huh what, which was the biggest contender for PX's counterwagon before. I don't think Zakeri would have done that as partners. I am no longer interested in wagoning him first.

tl;dr: Pesco, Dormio, Social link go! Affinity = :honk honk: Last scum in not them.

[Shadoweh]

Not getting this when the reasons for voting them were so obvious and easy that anyone could spout convincing reasons regarding their lynch, whether genuinely or not.

This is like an explanation of why scum voting Helepolis's wagon should be a given.

The bullshit comes in the explanation of one's choice over the other between two wagons and the jumps in between, which did happen with PX regarding Serela and Dormio D1, but certainly not Helepolis and Conq D3, where everyone on the Helepolis wagon did not want to see Conq lynched.  Of course, if anyone can find this 'bullshit' you speak of, then I would be happy to listen, but as far as I know, the above school of thought is pretty wrong as a general rule (e.g not the only way).

Everyone on the Conq wagon refused to switch too, as evidenced by how close the deadline was. Tell me something, if Helepolis was so 'obviously scummy' why didn't you vote for him? Why the switch to Zakeri? You obviously believe he was so scummy that everyone who voted him should be given a free pass. Didn't you argue yesterday that Helepolis was town and people shouldn't be voting for him? What gives?

I'm quite worried about how Dormio seems to drift from day to day (up to D3) without much of a connecting thread between them, assuming and dropping numerous stances randomly and tunneling on them one at a time. (e.g essence of each day; D1: Conq is scummy for a long time; but since no interest, Shadoweh is scummy, but since vigclaim, not me over me on Serela D2: I think Conq and Shadoweh are fine now, let's go for BT and clear PX. D3: I think BT is sort of cleared because WIFOM, let's go after Helepolis.  D4: BT might be scum but still, WIFOM, let's go after Zakeri) 

This is a great argument for how Dormio is confused and his opinion changes depending on what posts he's read, as opposed to how as scum he tunnels on one person and puts his fingers in his ears. Having different reads throughout the day isn't scummy, it means he's thinking.

DORMIO LET'S GET MARRIED HYDRA'D!

While it's not bad on its own, his politically correct, untelegraphed case on Zakeri today is just another example of this pattern.  There's really nothing to say except the above pattern is one preferred by scum; the ability to survive from day to day holding a temporary stance with some degree of freedom as to who to lynch among the playerpool, etc.  I would also be fine with lynching him today, though for now, I'd rather go for Zakeri and Conq.

Isn't trashing his case on Zakeri before he's flipped just a little pre-emptive since you're voting with him? :V

[Shadoweh]

In short, I still cannot bring myself to believe that Conqueror did not find PX more suspicious due to his softclaim.  Not buying the reasoning that 'cop+watcher isn't that unheard of in a normal setup'; it is still an anomaly at the very least and Conq should have examined PX beyond a subjective town read.  Add this to his inconsequential/scummy D2 and nullish D3, and I would certainly vote him today barring something.

Oh, okay!

Zakeri's explanations of his D2 conduct are... barely fine, but the thing is that he did not keep up a solid level of activity.  D2 is very mysterious for him given that he totally wasn't present to react to the softclaim and give his opinions about PX and such, and thus he's still an enigma.  His D3 actions are nothing but some hate for Helepolis and a town read on Conqueror based on Helepolis flipping scum.  Certainly needs to explain his position and reads more clearly.

##Vote: Zakeri

Oh.. wait.

A pending vote, but consider my preference to be Conqueror regarding the lynch for today.

What is this suposed to mean, anyways? Gonna get that vote out there! But it's a pretend vote because the scum is Conqueror! Your vote is a prod vote and we're suposed to just ignore it and believe you're voting Conqueror. By your own words your vote is worthless.

[Pesco]

I don't think Affinity is scum but with how conflicting the reads I'm getting on him are, he might be worth policy lynching at LyLo. He's not a priority for me today.

[Conqueror]

Still reading, but I want to respond to some stuff first. That post was aimed at Pesco, not you, Shadoweh. Pesco doesn't get to talk about how Hele wasn't so scummy when yesterday he said nothing of the sort. Read his posts. His justification for not voting Hele at one point iirc was because Hele was a secondary target or whatnot.

The assumption that there must be at least one scum voting PX is silly though it may be true. It's like the assumption that there has to be scum voting Helepolis.

I'm not going to delve into the WIFOM of the NK choice because I don't know. Possibilities include huh what being more on track, the threat of lying roles, etc. Out-wifoming the wifom leads to situations where people yell at you for not picking the obvious choice (and say you're omg scum), so no.

[Shadoweh]

1) Pesco is scum
2) Affinity is scum
3) Affinity x Pesco scumteam we're all fucked
4) The scumteam somehow didn't get on PX's wagon despite bussing being the #1 winning technique on MotK

I think one of those possibilities is highly unlikely. Guess which one it is.

[Shadoweh]

It's entirely possible there were no scum voting for Helepolis. To me that possibility is the Affinity/BT scumteam who are speaking from a position of confirmation bias. Of course it's obvious the scum weren't on someone when you are the scumteam.

[Conqueror]

I don't disagree with the conclusion necessarily. I just hope you're not taking that theory as fact because it's not. I'm in the process of looking at the actual wagon voteposts right now.

[Conqueror]

The thing that puzzles me is that an Affinity/BT scumteam (besides the fact that it seems too easy) has no motive for pushing that there were no scum on the Helepolis wagon...and then I realize here that they're voting voters on the Helepolis wagon anyway.  :ohdear:
Eh.

[Shadoweh]

Why is it too easy when none of you will throw a bloody vote on BT or Affinity? -.-

[Conqueror]

I'm making my post, jeez. -.-

"Too easy" refers to BT. The only thing that could be really said about him is that he's tunneling without regard to anyone else.

[Shadoweh]

Bleh. I still think Dormio has the best chance of being scum, especially after last day's "I'm going to tunnel on Hele all day, also I might be starting to doubt my Conq read so look forward to that". If I don't have a clear pick yet, that's where my vote is going.

##Vote Dormio

While it's not bad on its own, his politically correct, untelegraphed case on Zakeri today is just another example of this pattern.  There's really nothing to say except the above pattern is one preferred by scum; the ability to survive from day to day holding a temporary stance with some degree of freedom as to who to lynch among the playerpool, etc.  I would also be fine with lynching him today, though for now, I'd rather go for Zakeri and Conq.

DoRmIoOoOoOoOo ReMeMbEr MeEeEeE? i'M cOmInG FoR yOu DoRmIoOoOoOo! YoU BeTtEr GeT ThOsE PoStS oUt ThErE ToDaY BeCaUsE It'S yOuR LaSt DaY Of FrEeDoM aHaHaHaHaHaHa!

[Conqueror]

God this game is horrendously long.

+ Dormio town. Completely serious.
Posts like this indicate Zak/Dan town to me. Seems like an out of character move for scum!PX.
This PX vote from Affinity feels like a prod vote.
This riposte from PX is strange, particularly the part where he asks Affinity for thoughts regarding Shadoweh/Dan.
Continuing the PX/Affinity exchange. Still feels like an opinions prod more than anything.
Affinity jumps off PX here. Reminds me of Bardiche/me in MRM
+ Dormio town
+ Dormio town - no reason to put buddy at L-1

Oh goddamn the rest of PX's interactions seem useless. Reading other ISOs now. My mind is melting.

[Conqueror]

This is Affinity's D3 vote on PX. He leaves his vote on PX for most the day, taking it off only for the tracker claim.

Not totally convinced over PX's Keine Tracker thing and the way he went about the claim.  But conversely, I'm willing to wait and see for a night, regardless of flavor.

@Conq: Perhaps he was a JoAT or a witch?  Or maybe a one-shot cop?  Things would be completely different in those cases.  Without fullclaiming, PX!scum could easily fill in the blanks on subsequent days and throw us in for a loop, but after the tracker claim we were guaranteed a steady stream of results and verifiable information that could help us regardless of PX's alignment.  I don't see how voting him and completely disregarding the softclaim was a useless thing.  You said it yourself that PX could be Town Neighbourizer.

His later justification is that we were guaranteed to get steady results that could help in determining PX's alignment. Looking through his posts that day, I never saw any indication that he didn't think of PX of scum.

Yes to the first question, at least for PX.  In general I thought that, in absence of a counterclaim from BT or someone else, the pros of leaving a potential town tracker alive were better than the possibility of PX flipping scum, and that PX's results would give us the required info to make a judgement on his alignment. 

This doesn't jive with how you reacted to my claim. Sure dayplay, blah blah, but you also spent a large part of D2 talking about how PX's play was scummy. I still don't see the distinction. If I'm scummy enough to lynch regardless of claim, why wasn't PX?

Reading back, I still don't like the way Affinity turned around and started attacking me for looking at BT when he himself had similar issues with BT.

In short, I still cannot bring myself to believe that Conqueror did not find PX more suspicious due to his softclaim.  Not buying the reasoning that 'cop+watcher isn't that unheard of in a normal setup'; it is still an anomaly at the very least and Conq should have examined PX beyond a subjective town read.  Add this to his inconsequential/scummy D2 and nullish D3, and I would certainly vote him today barring something.

By this reasoning, lynching by flavour and balance concerns is completely valid. What of a mod who deigns to deliberately buck the trend? This is a stupid argument.
Aside from the fact that all reads in this game are subjective, PX read as derping town to me and I felt the cases on him to be opportunistic. I have a general history of defending PX as town and lynching his ass as scum; I would know.
Again, I don't like the way you dump all of my D2 and D3 under "inconsequential"/"scummy"/"nullish". It's an easy way to discredit my posts without actually commenting on them.

The Zakeri vote today reads like a prod vote but at least Affinity admits as such.

[Pesco]

It's Shadoweh's fault for not giving me my easy ticket out of the game.

:effort: to post. Me staying alive beyond Day2 is hardly productive.More posts from the lurkscums pls. Or just claim scum and we can get it over with.

[Shadoweh]

It's your fault for being town. You shoulda claimed scum man. :V

[Conqueror]

BT's iso doesn't tell me much of anything. When he next pops in here he should explain why he thinks Dormio (or other people) are scum and how that fits with PX scum given D1 and D2.

Zakeri's iso doesn't tell me anything either because of how lurky he's been. I still have a town read on his slot from Dan.

##Vote: Affinity

Pesco, why is Affinity town?