Umineko Mafia - Day 4

[Kiro]

How about a claim please Donut?

And you don't have to read everything now because there's no time. Just state a basic defense and who you think is scum with basic rationale.

[Kiro]

I'm gonna be gone for a bit. Not sure if I'll be back for deadline (1:00 AM EST?) and a vote switch, but hopefully so in case it's necessary.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

Deadline (1:00 AM EST?)

Yes.

[Sodium]

By Lurker, I mean inactive guy who then asks for a replacement at the end of Day 1. =V

Also, some random things I noticed:
No one self voted. THANK THE MAFIA GODS.
This Day 1 isn't 10 pages of WALLS that would make VoWG jelous. THANK THE MAFIA GODS.

So anyways...
People I don't like:
Nuclear Fusion:
[run on sentence]Hi Guys, I'm going to attract a lot of attention for no reason, post a current suspicion list that includes EVERYONE and then target the lurker(easy way out), jump to scum pair conclusions, get called scummy, then claim cop after wasting a load of time defending myself, while claiming defending others and ones self is a good way to spend the day.[/run on sentence]

While his actions are...yeah, no one has counterclaimed or anything, so he's somewhat of a confirmed townie. I still don't like NF for his general uselessness in actually doing something pro-town.

People who are scummy right now:
Donut:Oh you. Attacks Pesco with WIFOM goodness.
"SCUM WOULD WANT TO END THE RVS EARLY FOR TOWNIE POINTS, BUT I'VE CAUGHT ONTO THAT DEVIOUS SCHEME."
Next, we have him sorta defending Pesco from Roukan! Neutral I guess, but yeah. What I'd like to point out is:

1. Mafia NKs him. He's telling the truth and we lose a cop
2. Mafia leaves him alive for whatever reason and he starts talking. We have a live cop who can help us
3. He lives and starts feeding us false information, because he's Mafia

Two out of these three options are desirable.

Haha...Which of the two? From what I can tell, there's only 1 desirable for town, and that's #2. Only Pesco posted about it though, and Pesco'd post was more of a "lolwut?". Donut then responding without actually saying something to remedy how he said there are two options desirable. It's like he didn't actually notice what Pesco was talking about!
Uses "I suck at scum hunting" to defend against "Why haven't you been scum hunting?". Nice.
He then says "I'll catch up later", and then says that AGAIN, 2.5 hours before the deadline, while giving up.

Roukan and Pesco:For some reason, I have a theory that they're pretending to argue(as usual) in order to distract town. Now, there is absolutely no actual evidence to support this, seeing as they do it every time, but it's just a feeling I have. Disregard this if you feel like it, as it's a crackpot theory intially born from observing from outside the game.

I focused on the main topics of discussion in Day 1, but I'll try to give some opinions on others later(probably on Day 2, unfortunately). I was trying to do a post in an hour, and this is all I got. So yeah. I can vote up until an hour before the deadline. I've gotta go do something quickly now though.

[Sodium]

Wait, Alice, is my vote on Donut right now? Dorian did have his vote on Donut previously. Well, I'm just going to make sure by:

##Unvote
##Vote:Donut

Not a Hammer.

[nintendonut888]

Defense~? Well, If I'm about to be hammered, there's no real point, but lessee...~ *is currently hot and bothered by said heat*

IIRC, this whole thing started from confusions about the RVS, and me being inconsistent with my voting? Well, is it really a crime to have a flexible opinion? Look at the judge in Phoenix Wright! He has a flexible opinion, but he chooses the right thing in the end...wait. >_> As for why I vote for people I previously state I support, it was to avoid being accused of waffling. Honest. So~ I don't really have anything more than that.

As for who's scum? I dunno. Not me, but you'll learn that in an hour or so. I still say that NF should be under suspicion because he may be fake claiming, but that's not something I'd bet my life on. Also, don't let Pesco off the hook just because I flip town, okay?

Claim? I'm some chef guy, vanilla townie. GOD, I had hoped at least once in my Mafia career I'd get a power role (well, excluding mah Yuyuko doll in RWoS).

So in conclusion, I want to tell my family that though we had some rough times, I love them dearly. I leave this world with no regrets. *lights cigarette*

[Carthrat]

Yeah, I'm not seeing anything brilliant and/or mind-changing there, and the pesco lynch is looking like it's not gonna happen (and the Dorian/EX one definately isn't, and shouldn't happen.) I'm good with this one.

##Unvote, ##Vote: donut Hammer.

[WHMZakeri]

Back, I didn't think Day lasted until after Midnight.

I see Donut throwing up his hands and just giving up, which definitely isn't a point in his favor, to be sure.  His self-professed lack of scumhunting ability doesn't help matters either.  I'll agree that it's comparable to the case on Dorian, but I think Dorian is looking worse in all regards.

How exactly was Dorian "Worse" Than Donut? Dorian made a few posts attempting to give his opinions, and said something that can be easily misconstrued into a scummy statement. Donut has been placing awkwardly timed votes on people without giving effective reasoning for his votes, and excusing it. What exactly make's Dorian more scummy then Donut?

but I just want to point out that there is a balance to strike when weighing lurkiness against scummy posts.

And where is this balance? As far as I can tell from your stance on Dorian and Nuke, and your lack of Stance on Donut tells me that you value activity levels more than content of post. Your points on Dorian were afterthoughts.

If this player group has a collective flaw, it's that it penalizes effort.  Someone who takes the trouble to post a full justification of his vote and an analysis of every bandwagon and player is just putting out more words, and between those words there will likely be a bunch of little inconsistencies to pick apart, by virtue of the poster's humanity, not his scumminess.

Okay, this is a rather decent point, and I will accept this
IF... you can present a better way to hunt scum.

I'm not trying to present a false dilemma - all I'm saying is that it seems inconsistent to me for you all to give the supposed cop a free ticket due to his possible future utility while also giving the lurker a free ticket despite his likely future liability even on the off chance that he's a townie.

This is a False Delemia. You are trying to ingrain in the minds of everyone else is that if we let Dorian Live now, he will continue to live until Lylo, and only then, not before then, will we question or pursue his alignment.

I know this is all before you realized Dorian was getting replaced, which is why I phrased all of these arguments as such.

In the end, this is exactly why I consider it a Scumtell to go after Inactive People on day one. Inactives are the number one easiest mislynch since they can't defend themselves and clueless townies would easily agree with the reasoning. This is also a main point in why Nuke is likely Scum.

I am voting Pesco, and I usually vote people I'm comfortable with lynching, so... Uh. How is this question not fearmongering, as in it's the same as going "Are you SURE you want to lynch him? HE MIGHT FLIP EITHER WAY".

It is Fearmongering. As such, people who are convinced of their vote and provide reasoning why are less likely the be scum.

Ending the post now before the deadline comes up too short for Serp to answer.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

HAMMER SHUT UP

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

As everyone was arguing, and Kinzo kept shredding on his guitar, suddenly Gouda walks in with the afternoon dinner.

"Freshly prepared for you, delicious lemon chicken with hollandaise sauce, with a side of potatoes and mixed vegetables and drinks of your choice. Dessert will be in a m--"

"It's you. You're the one who killed them.", suddenly said Battler, after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself, almost in vain.

"W-w-w-what, me? What makes you think I committed that...vile act?"

"It's simple: it would have to have been a servant who did it, for the bodies were stored in a room where only the servants and Kinzo had keys to. Furthermore--"

"Wait, Battler's right. I didn't see Gohda around that morning, before the discovery of the bodies.", said Kanon.

"It wasn't me! Honest! I was in the kitchen making breakfast for everyone!"

"LIES AND TRICKERY! That is just a convenient excuse!" yelled Natsuhi in horror, beginning to already suspect the worst of Gohda, around the same time as another migraine of hers flared up again.

"Never trust a person who's named after a type of cheese", added Eva.

"Why did I ever agree to come here, not only does nobody respect me and my cooking but now they're also accusing me of murder! I go from working at 5-star hotels to this place and I get less respect? Why did that dollmaker have to prevent unionization, I don't deserve this tr--"

Suddenly, everyone's attention was directed on the girl who just materialized in the room, except nobody could tell when, or for that matter who she was.

"...who are you?", George finally got the urge to ask

"Mammon. And the person you are accusing is innocent of what you claim him to be doing. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, see, we need some sacrifices, so we hope you'll oblige and don't mind. I just hope you guys aren't going to take to eating microwaved lunches now. I mean that guy is obnoxious, but he could cook well, compared to the stuff Kinzo used to eat. I mean yeech, no wonder Nanjo complains about his health all the time. Anyway, bye!"

And at this precise moment two facts became known: the girl with the wavy brown hair was gone, and Gohda was dead...stabbed through the heart with a stake.

"Well...I guess he was telling the truth...", muttered Kinzo, who then got up to pick up his whammy bar that just flew off of his guitar.

nintendonut888, playing Gohda, Vanilla Townie was lynched!

It is now Night 1. You have 24 hours to submit night actions to me and Edible (please send them to both mods, I cannot seem to repeat this point enough times), after which Day 2 will begin.

[nintendonut888]

*goes off to get last meal*

[FinnKaenbyou]

"It's you. You're the one who killed them.", suddenly said Battler, after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself, almost in vain.

Uh, I don't think confirming roles via flavour is a good idea. >_>

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

"It's you. You're the one who killed them.", suddenly said Battler, after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself, almost in vain.

Uh, I don't think confirming roles via flavour is a good idea. >_>

When did I say this was a confirmation, or that roles mapped to alignments or powers?

[FinnKaenbyou]

after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself

[Pesco]

Stop mod-fishing in public.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself

Flavour is flavour, and the only relevant name in it is the person who is about to die. All other names and scenarios are pulled from the pool of all possible characters, some of which might not even be in this mafia game. Furthermore, character name does not imply ability or alignment. In other words, kindly stop trying to outguess the mod. It won't work

[FinnKaenbyou]

Okay, as a warning I'm leaving for a 4-day trip to England in about 5 minutes so my internet access will either be heavily reduced or non-existent. If I don't post by halfway through Day 2, I'll probably need to be replaced. If all goes well, though, I should be back online sometime late Sunday.

Apologies to the mods for the inconvenience.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

Everyone woke up today and headed off to the common room, still slightly afraid of the happenings of last night. "Didn't it say that two people are to be killed on the second day?", George wondered for a moment. "Just be glad nobody died", was the quick response from Natsuhi, who was visibly distressed. They all sat down for another day of chatter and confusion amongst themselves, in the hopes of finding out who was behind the death of Gouda last night.

It is now Day 2. There was No Nightkill last night. You have 72 hours from this point until deadline, though due to random V/LAs cropping up and the Otakon weekend, I will give a 24 hour extension for today only if a majority votes for an extension by voting ##Extension

Also, Roukanken's V/LA is noted. Have fun!

[Nuclear Fusion]

I got roleblocked....


At the same time, nobody died, that's pretty freaking sweet.

Also, ##vote: Affinity

10 alive, and the mafia has a roleblocker. This is new information.

[Nuclear Fusion]

EBWOP: Oh ya, I should mention that I tried to investigate Cart, but ya, roleblocked.

[Kiro]

Your reason for the Affinity vote? And perhaps the reason why you chose to investigate Carthrat.

Will work on a case to persue in the meanwhile.

[Nuclear Fusion]

Cart because I was already suspicious of him during day for defending Dorian repeatedly with lame reasons (noted in the long post). 

My affinity vote now? Because I've noticed a trend in his posting - a lot of is accusing me of not scum hunting. Then when I attempt to scum hunt, he dismisses it immediately as not being useful. I will probably do a PBPA of him tomorrow, but if I can recall his posts accurately, almost all of them have accused me at some point.

So ya, I think affinity is trying to discredit me, and doing so mostly by jumping on the backs of what other people have said prior to him.

[WHMZakeri]

Cut by Kiro: Beat me to it.

@Serp, I would still like you to answer everything in my after hammer post, even if you don't think it would be relevant to the rest of the day 2.

My opinion has not changed at all on Nuke from yesterday. For the record, my opinion was "I want to lynch him for horribad play, but I won't because lynching him is still anti-town." Although, with a roleblocker around, claiming as a cop effectively killed him.

<setup speculation>Judging from Nuke's report, I'm under the impression that this is an F11 game (link provided for those who don't know what F11 is). I wouldn't put it past Alice if it was. What we can expect from the rest of this game is a night action stalemate until Scum hits doctor or we lynch the roleblocker. The other possibility is that Scum intentionally threw away the nightkill to produce this assumption, but it's unlikely.</setup speculation>

that's everything I wanted to touch upon before rereading, anyway.

[Serp]

To answer Zakeri:

How exactly was Dorian "Worse" Than Donut? Dorian made a few posts attempting to give his opinions, and said something that can be easily misconstrued into a scummy statement. Donut has been placing awkwardly timed votes on people without giving effective reasoning for his votes, and excusing it. What exactly make's Dorian more scummy then Donut?

I meant "worse" as regards lurkerscum potential.  Donut had more scummy statements out there, and he was sort of disappearing there in the end, but Dorian was even more lurky, and his scumminess-per-post ratio was higher.  Basically, I was referring to the same things that Kiro was in the post I was responding to.

And where is this balance? As far as I can tell from your stance on Dorian and Nuke, and your lack of Stance on Donut tells me that you value activity levels more than content of post. Your points on Dorian were afterthoughts.

I apparently put more value on activity than most here, yes.  My points on Dorian weren't just afterthoughts, though - they had just already been stated by other people who were already voting for him.  If he had posted no less often that he had, but hadn't put anything so scummy in those posts, I wouldn't have advocated lynching him.

Okay, this is a rather decent point, and I will accept this
IF... you can present a better way to hunt scum.

Watch and learn.

This is a False Delemia. You are trying to ingrain in the minds of everyone else is that if we let Dorian Live now, he will continue to live until Lylo, and only then, not before then, will we question or pursue his alignment.

Not lynching someone dramatically increases his chances of making it to LYLO, to say the least, and it's not like lurkers disappear without being lynched.  If we don't lynch them as soon as it's clear that they'll be a liability, then when do we do it?

In the end, this is exactly why I consider it a Scumtell to go after Inactive People on day one. Inactives are the number one easiest mislynch since they can't defend themselves and clueless townies would easily agree with the reasoning. This is also a main point in why Nuke is likely Scum.

Yeah, lurkers should be easy to lynch, shouldn't they?  I knew I'd take a lot of flak for picking such an "easy" option, though I maintain that it was the best move for the town in that situation.  Yet Dorian retained a lot of support despite how easy it should have been to lynch him, if he was really a townie and such easy target for scum to mislynch.  Shouldn't that be suspicious in itself?  Let's see what Sodium produces today.  As I said, I'm not letting him off the hook.

Now, my thoughts on Nuke's report.  It looks like he'd have us believe that he was targetted by a scum roleblocker as well as the night kill.  Seems fishy.  Alternately, he might've been roleblocked and the night kill didn't go through for some other reason, but that seems even less likely.

As for scenarios I'm sure he'd rather not have us believe, scum could've roleblocked themselves or just not sent in the night kill, and Nuke could be one of them.  It'd be strange for him not to fabricate an investigation in that case, though.

It's a good idea to be suspicious of roleclaims that fail to produce, though.  Combine Nuke's apparent uselessness as a cop with his scummy play yesterday and I'm much less inclined to keep him alive another day.  Pesco's scumminess from yesterday still carries over, too, and I've got my eye on Sodium.  I also really, really want Nuke to expand on his case out of nowhere against Affinity.

[Affinity]

@Nuclear Fusion

There is very little need to discredit you for you have done most of the discrediting yourself with your useless, reckless play.  Also, interesting is the 'jump on other people's back' accusation which I find rather unsubstantiated, due to the fact that there are only so many obvious points to point out on your play, and that I believe I raised a few original points on your case.  Furthermore, if you are voting me because I'm finding you scummy, then obviously, that's quite foolish when you compare it with your own scumhunting philosophy (read: nothing is a scumtell), which doesn't hold up.  In fact, that's in itself scummy because you have to rely on such neutral reasons to scrape together a case; a psuedo-OMGUS if you will

---

@Zakeri:

You said yesterday that you were leery of the donut lynch for the reason that

Donut's vote flip can be seen as both scummy bandwagoning and town pressure voting, so I'm considering this a nulltell as well.

I don't really like how you distanced away from the donut bandwagon on this sentence alone... so what do you mean by town pressure voting?  donut's pileups on Dorian and NF were a little opportunistic and didn't seem to convey any sense of pressure, after all; it seems a little bit that you wanted to get away from a misguided bandwagon as scum.

##Vote: Zakeri

[Pesco]

I don't see a scum must kill clause in the rules. Alice may have made the adjustment for personal preferences from Kilga's ruleset. Lack of NK gives no indication the viewers.

Perma RB is lame, so the supposed cop isn't going to deliver anything for the rest of the game? By his merits as a player alone, he's good to be lynched.

I'll need a reread once I get home. DnD happening later on too, so I won't be posting a lot.

[Nuclear Fusion]

<setup speculation>Judging from Nuke's report, I'm under the impression that this is an F11 game (link provided for those who don't know what F11 is). I wouldn't put it past Alice if it was. What we can expect from the rest of this game is a night action stalemate until Scum hits doctor or we lynch the roleblocker. The other possibility is that Scum intentionally threw away the nightkill to produce this assumption, but it's unlikely.</setup speculation>

I couldn't sleep, and this is exactly what I was thinking about. I'm a useless role unless I can find the role blocker. Until then, I just get blocked every night.

This also means two things - either the mafia won't care to get me lynched during the day, since I'm effectively useless... or they want me lynched so they can try and block the doctor.

@Serp - no, I don't think it's possible that I was targeted by the night kill. And in fact, I don't think I suggested I was. I simply stated that it was awesome that the doc saved somebody.

By the way, the doc saving somebody means that our doc knows somebody is else is town. Or... it means that mafia never sent in a night kill, which is more than a little unlikely.

Also, the vote on Affinity isn't out of nowhere. I mention in the long post from yesterday that I'm suspicious of him.

@affinity - Again, you're doing it again. My play is reckless, I'll admit that. How does that discredit myself? If anything, I'm willing to put myself on the line for the sake of the town. Recklessness is not a scum tell, it's an idiot tell. And I'll be the first to admit I'm an idiot when it comes to mafia sometimes.

You raised some original points? This will need to be checked in the PBPA.

I thought OMGUS was more of "You voted me, so I'm voting you" type thing.

I'm going to state this much - lynching me is still a bad idea. And I'll tell you why - at the very least, I'm holding the role blocker off of the doc. That's not much of a merit, but it's something. I'm also pissed that there was an RB. There is nothing beneficial in me claiming that I was role blocked last night, because that makes me more suspicious and I know it. The best claim I can say is that I got scum results on X, watch us lynch X today, and then go down on day three. That is the best play for me if I am mafia.

Another point - Assume that I am lying (I'm not, but let's assume). That means that the real cop knows I'm lying. This means that he will continue to vote for me, because he knows it. But he can't out and right say that he is cop. He would not bother to waste an investigation on me (I don't think small player games like this have more than one cop ever). This means he would have investigated someone else.

The cop would know the following
Donut - Town
NF - Scum
(Person Investigated) - Town/Scum.
Himself - Town

That's 4 things, out of 11.

Now, assuming that he knows this... he can get two more roles by asking the doc to say who he targeted. This would clear two more people, theoretically.

So that's 6 out of 11. That leaves 5 people.

At that point, the following occurs - We lynch me (since in this hypothetical I'm scum) Assume two scum left in those 5.

Doc gets wacked, cop gets blocked. That's 9 people alive, of which 5 are unknown. 4 however, are completely clear.

...

I think I just proved to myself that in this hypothetical, it would be unwise for the real cop to claim. So... I don't know what I just proved but there's some math and thought for you.

I'm going back to sleep... I'm tired.

[Pesco]

tl;dr WIFOM crap. I think you're just scum that didn't think the claim through. You've been scummy so you deserve to be lynched for it.

##Vote NF

[Nuclear Fusion]

tl;dr WIFOM crap. I think you're just scum that didn't think the claim through. You've been scummy so you deserve to be lynched for it.

##Vote NF

Who did you target last night?

[Pesco]

I crumbed who I would target yesterday.