For example calculate your success rate of going trough that dense ring of bullets while also avoiding the fast bullets shot by one fairy. What you should find is that it is not impossible after all. Do the same for the other significantly different parts of the stage and then calculate the probability of pulling off a "perfect" run. Based on that the avg time it takes to do this could be estimated.
Okay. Let's play.
success rate of going trough that dense ring of bullets while also avoiding the fast bullets shot by one fairy
Since he hardly manages to pull this off with each wave, this is an irrelevant calculation, so let's modify this a little bit. Instead of one ring of bullets and one randafairy with each wave, here's what he actually dodges through.
two randafairies
one randafairy plus one ring
two randafairies plus one ring
two randafaires plus one ring (death)
one randafairy plus one ring
two randafairies
at the top of the screen plus one ring (dies to the ring, but survives the randafairies)
Let's just look at the rings for now. Three ring dodges are made, and let's face it, at that speed, you're not reading that. If you dodge it, it was luck. I'll give it a 50% chance that you survive that, and that's if you're at the top of the screen. Dodging three rings with this probability estimate, you get
12.5% chance. But that's actually a generous estimate; I'm giving it 50% per ring because there's about 50% bullet space and 50% hole. But to dodge it, you have to fit 100% into a hole, while clipping a bullet is death. So there's less than 50% safe spot.
I'll skip over the probability for single randafairies. Those can be dodged.
As for pairs of randafairies, again, three successful wave dodges are made. Each randafairy fires 90 blasts: one blast per frame for 90 frames. Each blast covers about 20 degrees centered in a random direction from the fairy. I'll give the probability that, if you're caught within the 20 degree coverage of a wave, and you're at the bottom of the screen, you have, again, a 50% chance to luckily squeeze through (I'm being generous again, because of the thing I mentioned about fitting into a hole versus clipping a bullet, as well as the estimate being more like 33% unless you're both at the bottom and in the opposite corner of the fairy, where it's closer to the 50% that I'm using). There's a 95% (340/360 degrees) chance that a blast will avoid you altogether, and in the chance you're caught in that blast, I'll give 2.5 of the remaining 5% that you squeeze through, if you're at the bottom of the screen.
Two pairs of randafairies are successfully dodged at the bottom of the screen. In other words, 4 fairies times 90 blasts each, 360 blasts total, each with a 97.5% chance of dodging. The odds of dodging this would be 97.5% ^ 360. The result?
.01%.That's not even counting the last pair of randafairies he dodges at the top of the screen, where the waves are dense enough that you can't squeeze through them. Another 180 waves with a 95% chance of each blast avoiding you altogether, but without the squeeze probability. Another
.01% chance of that.
12.5% x .01% x .01%? .000000125% chance.Now, this is a whole bunch of theoretical crunching that calculates based on a player who more or less stands still, rather than a player moves with any sort of skill. But we're talking about the probability of brute-forcing such a replay. Brute-forcing implies no skill necessary, thus, I'm sticking with the assumption that any motions the unskilled player makes against rings and pairs of randafairies, which are impossible to read for the average player, are no better than standing still (and in the general case, standing still is better than unskilled motion, because if you stand still, a bullet only has to pass you once, while unskilled motion gives any given bullet multiple chances to hit you, for example, if you back up into a bullet that has already passed you by).
And like others have said, this is
completely missing the point. Just the first PoC death in the Extra stage
alone invalidates all illusion of skill that he tries to pass as legitimate. No one would think that was a good idea beyond a first, blind attempt, and
if someone tried it due to a random brain malfunction, it's far too early in the stage to not hit retry.
Trust me, I'm the last person who wants to point fingers at cheaters, but sometimes you just have to accept that there are dishonest people out there, and that you can't just blindly believe everything you see to be the result of an honest man's effort.
