Welp, reading ~everything~ again.
4. Affinity
Uh. Posts such as
#114, I read as distancing, as there is no actual motivation behind scumhunting PX. Despite this, Affinity's D1 was extremely solid. Then came the PX case, after HW and Pesco have already started the wagon. What bugs me here is not the case, but everything around it: besides his zero-motivation questions directed at PX during D1, he had absolutely no interactions with him. Add to that how he kept scumhunting people like Conq and Dormio (and myself, to an extent) while keeping his PX case untouched, and I really
can picture how he'd have no let-us-lynch-the-scum motivation to lynch him from the start. He notes in a post that, while he has presented stuff against Dormio all day while talking squat about PX,
PX and Dormio are scummy, and I cannot find the reason for 'PX over Dormio' anywhere. It looks like cheerleading a Dormio wagon while voteparking on a guy that, if we assume Scum!Affinity, wouldn't call you out for it anyway. And then there's his
vote on Conq 30 minutes before deadline which looks terrible in hindsight because he doesn't explain why Conq is worse than PX. In fact, by voteswitching, he officially ruled PX out as a possible quicklynch. Then, in D3, iirc, there were no major scumhunting aside from the cases on Conq, which is the polar opposite of what happened with PX: when he parked on PX, he constantly scumhunted other people. When on Conq, he's just as tunnely as I was for most of the game. If we assume that this change is because of a difference in allegiance (PX: scum, Conq: town), this makes perfect sense.
5. Zakeri
As Conq noted earlier,
this seems kind of odd from a theoretical scumpartner. I also note how ActionDan has been pretty reckless during his time in the game (right from the get-go, too), which is out-of-character for scum. Has ActionDan done this kind of thing before? Also, another PX post (
this one) is interesting in that it seems to encourage a Zakeri/Dan vig, which, well, uh, why would scum do this exactly, implying Scum!Zakeri-partner-of-PX? Seems like a huge, unneeded risk. Although... PX DID name this as 'what HE would do', so this could easily be read as distancing, as well. And then there's
this post in which Zak goes to almost no explaining regarding how PX's claim+flip will change his read on me, and in hindsight, this looks like a set-up. And, uh, yeah, he DOES defend me, but his basis of this is PX's flip, so the result would be the same either way and he'd just go "welp I did defend him but a flip is a flip and BT is kinda scum now". I read the rest of Zak's posts and I can see where some of the cases on him today are coming from. I would not mind a lynch here, but, well, there's the thing how his lynch is inferior to my 'other candidate', in regards to how much we get from their flip.
6. Dormio
Re-read of interactions with PX from the first few pages, especially posts such as
this that put PX in immediate suspicion at the very beginning of the game, enforce a Town!Dormio read. PX's place on the Dormio wagon (during D1,
here) was fitting of a bus, but at the same time, he started his anti-Dormio campaign
here, when the Dormio wagon was just starting and there was no guarantee for it to be a main thing. In actuality, his note that Dormio might be scummy only increases the chance of a Dormio wagon because it makes people look at Dormio more. And scum would not do this for their partner. I still stand by my reasons for suspecting Dormio up to this point, but, reading the full picture a second time, it is hard for me to continue believing my Scum!Dormio read, and I would not lynch him today.
7. Shadoweh
Scummy town vig.
8. Pesco
I remember linking this PX post before, but,
here. He motions Shadoweh to 'go with her gut' and vig someone, and at that moment, Shadoweh's gut was "Pesco scum Pesco scum Pesco scum". In fact, Shadoweh was far from stable and people just assumed that she would go with the Pesco vig, and yet no one opposed it. Aside from HW, but that is irrelevant for he is town. Despite this, I can find near to no non-analysis giveaways for Pesco's allegiance, and so I'll be relying on this analysis for my read... and, yeah, he's been awfully pro-town all game. :L
9. Conq
Meh. Re-reading isn't doing much for me because his early game is pretty null and everything else is still fresh in my mind. The lack of claimed PRs (looking at the playerlist, we have VigShadoweh, WatcherConq, three claimed vanillagers, me and Pesco) only serves to lessen the doubts I had about his claim. And, uh, yeah, nothing new.
12. BT
Yup.
So, I noted how I've ruled out a Affinity-Zak scumteam only earlier today, but, after re-reads, I can directly compare Affinity's vote on Zak to his D2, with PX=Zak and Dormio=Conq. Zak was a prod vote, Conq was his main lynch candidate for the day. It makes sense as a scum-push for a Zak vote just as much as it does for simple distancing, so I refute my ruling out of this scenario.
##Vote Affinity (L-1)
Like I mentioned earlier, this flip is better than Zak's. This is because of more connections to people, obviously. I feel like I had a whole lot more to say and this post turned out pretty sloppy, but it's kind of close to deadline and I don't have that much time to stay online to begin with.
Cut: Shadoweh of course I'm here, these things take time and I already feel fuzzy from how I've had to ~reversal~ in contrast to my play the entire game so far. At least I'm pretty whole with my decision now.
