Author Topic: Medaka Box Mafia - GAME OVER (Read 87043 times)

Shadoweh · « **Reply #120 on:** March 20, 2014, 03:58:39 AM »

I supose moving off of Zak to jump onto me instead of Serela at that point isn't very bus happy. Meanwhile BT wasn't there for most of Day 1 due to inactivity, which isn't his fault but could explain him never having time to move away from his comfy wagon spot. I just don't know at this point.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #121 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:01:09 AM »

Actually I do know that I think BT's activity has been dropping off and I just don't want to commit to being wrong. A kitten told me once that attacking the scum that isn't being wagoned over the scum that's open for free bussing is a towntell. So it's probably not Conq.

##Vote: BT

Note to others: Do not vote for Conq, he will be lynched at 2 votes instead of 3, if you want to lynch him instead just state intent.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #122 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:04:36 AM »

I could vote for BT because I don't like his performance post day 1, but I can't fathom why Zak made a case on him day 2. Like this kind of thing, only to be replaced by a Serela vote as soon as Conq makes a case.

Re-ISO time I guess.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #123 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:08:01 AM »

What does BT's vote on Bardiche have to do with anything ?_?

Conqueror · « **Reply #124 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:12:28 AM »

As much as I think it's BT and not Bard or someone else, I'd rather wait to make a firm decision until I can reread this game with a calm mind tomorrow since I'm a bit on edge right now. Plus BT's responses etc etc.

Conqueror · « **Reply #125 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:12:54 AM »

Plus I hate being wrong. Almost as much as I hate being lynched.

Conqueror · « **Reply #126 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:15:32 AM »

I don't know what Sky meant to point out by BT's Bard vote but in light of everything it looks like an easy momentum-driven push towards the person who was looking most likely to be lynched that day.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #127 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:23:57 AM »

Here BT is supporting Kingault/Oarfish. Actually, he's been supporting King for quite some time, until Oarfish actually relies on him for it.
BT puts out a pretty decent content post at that time, simultaneously questioning Oarfish and Zak. He finishes it with a dismantling of Oarfish.
This post is full of effort and genuine questioning of Zak's intent. He also picks up some things that I don't think scum would notice, like 'he doesn't review CF7's newer posts and doesn't revote from Serela to CF7'.
Zak shenanigans finishing with his death...BT's been chasing Zak for a long time. It's not your average bus. He was on a hunt. Town imo.

What was bad about the Bard vote was that he didn't put a reason for it and just sheeped somebody (me), then as soon an actual claim appeared sheeped on to Serela. After BT worked so hard it seems strange for him to flip around like that. That said, he was suspecting Bard also on day 4, so. Maybe that's why.

We haven't seen anything from BT yet today but I'm hard pressed to vote for him now. Conq looks like he is trying hard. I keep coming back to Bard vs Conq.

I don't know what to think about Shadoweh changing her results because of confuse!Dormio. Conq, you said something about getting strange messages back too, right? If so, that probably checks out.

Conqueror · « **Reply #128 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:32:26 AM »

Actually, that does remind me of something, although this is getting dangerously close to modgaming. Shadoweh, you said that Dormio linked you to a troll video when you asked him about your result? Did you ask him if you were roleblocked? I mean otherwise I assume you would have just gotten a normal result wrt your watch as in "no one visited etc."

Dormio sent me amusing messages in response to me asking about where my day effects were.

Conqueror · « **Reply #129 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:37:11 AM »

BT had been suspecting Bard for all of the previous day before the Bard vote (and he made posts to that effect), so it's not an unexpected vote. I think it's an opportunistic one though.

The thing about a bus from BT is that I'd expect it to be thorough, not half-assed. It's why I read him as town all game, actually. I'll need to go over it again though like I said. Maybe I'll go meta digging.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #130 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:53:52 AM »

Quote from: Conqueror on March 20, 2014, 04:32:26 AM

Actually, that does remind me of something, although this is getting dangerously close to modgaming. Shadoweh, you said that Dormio linked you to a troll video when you asked him about your result? Did you ask him if you were roleblocked? I mean otherwise I assume you would have just gotten a normal result wrt your watch as in "no one visited etc."

Dormio sent me amusing messages in response to me asking about where my day effects were.

I assumed I would just have gotten a normal result too, hence thinking I was roleblocked. I'd rather not spell out my mod communications but I didn't ask for clarification until today. Frankly I was happier thinking that my watch was roleblocked and that it didn't matter who I targetted. <_<

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #131 on:** March 20, 2014, 06:24:54 AM »

Votecount
BT (1): Shadoweh
Conqueror (0):
Sky Paladin (0):
Shadoweh (0):
Bardiche (0):

Not voting: Conqueror, Sky Paladin, BT, Bardiche

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

You have ~67.5 hours remaining

BT · « **Reply #132 on:** March 20, 2014, 08:40:08 AM »

Wtf let me post. I'm in classes for a while. Wait warmly.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #133 on:** March 20, 2014, 10:09:07 AM »

It's just one vote, don't be a baby.
It's not like I can stay awake longer then two seconds to put one down anyways.

BT · « **Reply #134 on:** March 20, 2014, 11:50:45 AM »

Well it's not like I'm not giving any weight to this day phase. I'm assuming Serela was town and there's no ITP, and even then we have a chance of losing with a mislynch and misfire. Not taking my chances.

Anywho, SkyPal's Dan kill is a pretty big gamble if he's scum or ITP, since even if he's aware of the cred he gets from getting rid of a "mislynch"... eh, I guess I'd just rather think it's not worth it in most if not all cases. The initial "I didn't know who out of Bard/Conq/BT were scum so I just shot the mislynch" just seems really town to me okay? Okay.

I'm also pretty sure Conq is town since the early hated claim strongly implies that he's actually hated. He could be hated dreaming scum, but in that case the scumteam is comprised of a string of special kills, a backup (sort of an unstable wildcard) and a useless towncred role (sort of a nothing wildcard). It doesn't seem like a healthy setup at all and there's also how I actually think Conq is town this game based on play.

That leaves the two info roles, which make a lot more sense on the scumteam anyway. I'm pretty certain Shadoweh, Bard and I aren't all on the same town. If I ever die, I'd probably advocate that SkyPal shoots Bard and not Shadoweh. Zak's apology to at the time Obvtown Shadoweh is strong enough for me to say that. If it weren't for that it would have been tough, since I'd say Bard is scum based on play and Shadoweh's scum based on roles (moreso than Bard - full elaboration on this to come if I'm actually lynched today).

I'll get to reading the last few pages now, but I'll probably be voting Bard today.

BT · « **Reply #135 on:** March 20, 2014, 11:53:56 AM »

Oh, yeah, one preemptive question - Shadoweh, what made you think you were roleblocked?

BT · « **Reply #136 on:** March 20, 2014, 12:01:28 PM »

There's also something I didn't mention - Bard's special restriction is pretty suspect, since it's fairly possible (and likey, based on information from flipped scum roles) the scumteam really CAN'T kill and use actions together and the restriction (along with Dan's death now) is meant to cover for that. I'm pretty sure Bard's a tracking neighbor, but that restriction, man.

BT · « **Reply #137 on:** March 20, 2014, 12:33:56 PM »

Okay the roleblock thing is clearer now.

Quote from: Conqueror on March 20, 2014, 03:25:39 AM

BT, explain again why you wanted CF7 lynched on D1? I reread the discussion and again the most I'm getting is "lacks initiative," so I'm wondering how you distinguished that from lazy!town CF7, if you were thinking that way. Also, why did you change your opinion on Zak?

First part: gladly. Second part is answered in the reply to SkyPal.

CF7 was bullshitting content. First, the "inquiry" was because I thought he was just going to sit there being snide and deflecting NNR's post without actually naming suspects, like, you know, he didn't care. It is something Raikaria does, but I often forget that even when I'm dealing with Raikaria, to be honest. This isn't Raikaria anyway. After that initial thing the vote turned serious because his suspicion of rawr was scummy, even when meta is concerned. He basically went for rawr because he "seemed weird" without looking at his posts thoroughly, a fact which shined through in his response. It's something weak-normal scum players try to take advantage of, except weak players won't know what to say when they're called out on it. So the vote there was because I thought he took advantage of rawr being weird and the whole thing was bullshit. Once it's clear it was a bad idea to go for rawr he just concludes that rawr looks town now and instead tries to take advantage of Kingault's weak vote on an advanced position on his wagon, not even having the guts to place his vote there lest people get even angrier at him. The whole thing just felt textbook scum.

By the way, unrelated, I still don't get it, what's so jarring to you about CF7 not claiming? People do that. It's a thing that happens. Specifically when they've given up and think there's literally no reason to humor anyone with a fakeclaim. The wagon was final when he showed up. He had no reason to claim. It would have been WEIRD to me HAD HE CLAIMED.

If I'm talking about the accusations of retarded scum play, I guess Zak wanted to preserve the extra kill thinking he wouldn't be lynched the next day or something. Hell if I know, Bard entered D4 with a bunch of other cases and Zak barely even arrived. The motivation was kind of lacking once it turned out Zak was actually being gunned for a lynch. If memory serves.

One last thing - why do you think Bard is town on play? I think he's scum on play. I never made the complete case, so I guess I'll try doing that today.

Quote from: Sky_Paladin on March 20, 2014, 04:23:57 AM

What was bad about the Bard vote was that he didn't put a reason for it and just sheeped somebody (me), then as soon an actual claim appeared sheeped on to Serela. After BT worked so hard it seems strange for him to flip around like that. That said, he was suspecting Bard also on day 4, so. Maybe that's why.

Yes, that is why. >_> I thought it was Bard and Zak for a while and my scumread on Bard was even stronger than the one on Zak until Zak decided to claim foregoing the extra shot he had and some other things, plus people wanted to lynch Zak first. I quicklynch when I'm sure of my choice. I thought the game was going to end yesterday, except Conq showed up with what I thought was a really good case and roleshens supported Bard being town, so I just defected in a flash. Interesting note - that roleshen reasoning is dead now since Shadoweh could be the justification behind the ninja kill, not Bard. Works the other way around too, but I think it's Bard.

BT · « **Reply #138 on:** March 20, 2014, 12:49:00 PM »

This is kind of useless, but Bard would probably be a scum tracker, not a scum rolecop, since he would've decided it a good idea to claim tracker after copping Shadoweh as self-watcher. Not solid, but this isn't important anyway. Just for setup power play, since tracker would be much weaker, especially when Sacchi existed, but hey.

My answer about "why'd you change your mind on Zak" wasn't complete so I'll complete it - I did think he was town, except I was starting to collect a bunch of townreads and his case on me felt kind of off (by the way, I'm pretty sure the way I took apart his case later is a strong point in my favor, if anyone's looking for those) so I decided to read him and that's when I made the "I still think his play is town but look at these connections" case. I still wasn't sure, but it was still my best suspicion behind Bard. Then Zak claimed and I decided he was just going to be scum and that was that.

Uh, what else do I have to say about myself? I guess I'm kind of annoyed with people suddenly saying how they're unhappy with my play/activity. I could have been more invested, but I thought I contributed my fair share in this game, plus I lynched the scum. This isn't really a defense, it just kind of annoyed me hearing it.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #139 on:** March 20, 2014, 12:59:43 PM »

I'm too busy to post a full post right now but I think;
There's no requirement for a watcher and a tracker, even if they are conditional. So I think it's actually 1 v 1 Shadoweh/Bard.

Bard didn't present a useful track result all game, but Shadoweh was able to town clear Hikaru who independently got towncleared by me when I was upgraded.

More to come.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #140 on:** March 20, 2014, 01:01:50 PM »

I meant to say, "I thought Bard's condition was 'Ability lost of NNR dies' " but he just claimed a check on Dan.

I'm struggling to think of a realistic restriction that would allow this.

BT · « **Reply #141 on:** March 20, 2014, 01:05:08 PM »

Yeah, there's also that. Shadoweh's been an all-around Town Shadoweh all game with all its glory. I'm not sure why I'm not just voting Bard right now. Maybe to force me to make that case so my vote goes with the case. It is a mystery.

CUT: Restrictions are various and endless, but I still don't know a lot of plausible restrictions that give you sporadic role use and don't let you claim them.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #142 on:** March 20, 2014, 01:24:35 PM »

Quote from: BT on March 20, 2014, 11:53:56 AM

Oh, yeah, one preemptive question - Shadoweh, what made you think you were roleblocked?

I dunno, what would you think?
I don't know how a Self-Watcher and a Conditional Tracker could possibly be counterclaims to each other. I think you're grasping too hard at roleclears.
I think it would be weird if there was a ninja solely so I couldn't watch the scum as they murder me. It's not like I could be doc'd and survive, our doc was a JK.

BT · « **Reply #143 on:** March 20, 2014, 01:46:59 PM »

You're blinding yourself if you think this isn't par for the course with me or if you think I'm grasping at anything. I know what I want and I know what I'm saying. It's still okay for thete to be a janitor just in case, though I agree that it's weaker. What intetests me more is what Bard claimed his ability is? Abnormal? This is hard with a phone. Didn't someone say they had something special that isn't a minus and isn't abnormal?

Also something I remembered I have to check is who SB claimed to JK when and what Bard claimed happened to his action each cycle. A note to self.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #144 on:** March 20, 2014, 01:54:49 PM »

Oh, the grasping is at Sky P for saying me and Bard are in a 1 vs 1.
Conqueror said he has a Not Equal. Incidentally, my action is General.
Bard claimed Abnormal. SB claimed to have roleblocked Bard Day 3. We have no idea who his last night JK is, other then not me and not Bard. (I bet it was Dan)

BT · « **Reply #145 on:** March 20, 2014, 02:04:30 PM »

D3? All that matters to me is whether it's the same night Zak said he used Oar's role or not. I think so, in which case Bard might be clear. I hope the world isn't broken.

Bardiche · « **Reply #146 on:** March 20, 2014, 03:47:46 PM »

Zak interactions are few. At least from Zak's side, which I'm focusing on.

Zak with BT is the case on BT during Day 2. This comes after Zak's admission that he has a hard time pushing people as Scum due to not bothering to find out alignments much. The interesting part is that Zak in his next post drops the case, citing his reads on BT being somewhat reversed. "Reversed enough" not to be a priority. He has this case he is perfectly willing to drop without expounding much on the why.

And that's it. His connections to Conq are lacklustre (explaining scum playstyle a bit and other pleasantries), and his connections to Shadoweh and Sky Paladin are non-existent.

A case of Bard!Scum on roles alone is absurd. How am I supposed to defend from speculation about my role and the setup? A case of Bard!Scum based on play assumes I neglected to bus CF7 on Day 1 and instead stuck out my neck by not jumping on the easy case, and that on Day 2 I went hard against my neighbour and argued with him for the sake of saving a Townie when I could've as well latched on. I don't consider hopping onto someone's wagon favourable. The only one of who I'm sure is making a 100% Townie-motivated Day 1 case is myself. Therefore, the best odds of catching scum are by following my own suspicions. And I stand by that I didn't think of CF7 as true blue Scum because the way he behaved was so stupidly retarded it just made no sense.

Zak claimed to have used O4rfish's power on the Night after O4rfish's death. O4rfish got himself Modkilled on Day 2, so Zak said he used it on (skipping N2/D3 due to Conq) N3.

I admit I'm feeling lost because I'm in that bogmire where everyone is Scum and yet not. I'm assuming Shadoweh is Town because I like to think so. GUT!! and self-targeting Scum is silly. I'm honestly looking for Scum between Conq and BT.

So what does a Scum!Conq benefit from the way he dealt with D5? Unless he was setting me up for a mislynch today or tomorrow and was supremely confident I would not/could not track him, I just don't see it. Like, he has literally no reason.

So there's Scum!BT. The rolefish here is something that's catching my eye now on a reverse ISO. I think it's significant, because a lone Scum in the current situation'd need as much info as he can. That Sacchi died on the following Night is significant, because it shows Scum was genuinely worried about the motivator. I postulate that Scum!BT was worried about the motivator powers, and since he's claimed Ascetic would be ineligible to ever receive one. Similarly I don't quite like his Day 5 performance given a promise of content, followed by another one. I'll grant that real life time exists and such, but.

He voted me:

Quote

? on: March 18, 2014, 05:04:44 pm ?

Then questioned me about my role use and lack of condition claim at:

Quote

? on: March 18, 2014, 08:27:04 pm ?

and continues to be posting until:

Quote

? on: March 18, 2014, 09:36:21 pm ?

After this, there is a gap until:

Quote

? on: March 19, 2014, 12:49:00 am ?

when he votes Serela with no previous mention of Serela that Day Phase. The significance I want to point out here is that between 5 PM and 8:25 PM, there was a lot of time for BT to have written a case. He chooses not to, but hangs around for an hour posting short posts without building a case of anything. Three hours later, he votes Serela instead. If BT is Town-aligned, then why did he not spend a moment of that time trying to point Town in the direction of Scum through arguments and such? My answer: BT isn't Town, and he didn't particularly care a lot who gets lynched. But he couldn't justify staying on a claimed Tracker.

In fact I hardly see BT mentioning Serela anywhere in the thread and I'm on Day 2 already. His vote on Serela seemed very laissez-faire and #YOLOFUCKIT #shotsfired #forthewin, so my suspicions are heavily on BT right now.

Another point of interest: The quicklynch of SkyPal. The content being so "scum-motivated" is an interesting point in the face of BT clearing SkyPal later. In this post he even backpedals a bit from "up for quicklynch, content scum-motivated" to "I was afraid he was Town"; how does this work, suggesting quicklynches on people you're considering may be Town?

It just seems two extremes that I can't reconcile in my head.

##Vote: BT

The other considerations are:
Sky Paladin. This one is absurd to consider given Dan's kill.
Shadoweh. That assumes Scum picked up on my crumb and went #YOLO and ignored it. Too unlikely.
Conqueror. Assumes Scum!Conq thought it a brilliant idea to brush forward and get Town to lynch Serela instead of me, when he stood to gain a lot from my lynch (dead investigation role).

So yeah, I don't see any reasonable option other than BT. PoE is further aided by the scummy behaviour as outlined above.

Bardiche · « **Reply #147 on:** March 20, 2014, 04:12:13 PM »

With regards to, "Bard's role (restriction) can't be true!"

You're proposing that Ninja Kill is put in specifically to prevent Shadoweh from seeing who kills her, unless the stars align and a) Sacchi targeted Shadoweh and b) Shadoweh correctly guessed the night kill afterwards and c) Scum actually use the ninja kill there. Shadoweh saying her power is a "General" means no one can inherit so basically the only situation in which a ninja kill would be useful according to your argument is if the above scenario happens and the stars align.

How about instead of gaming the setup you play the game and look over my case on BT, consider its points, and/or make a case on someone else instead?

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #148 on:** March 20, 2014, 05:00:24 PM »

I won't have a chance to go back and recheck everybody's ability and what they said they did until around twenty hours from now, which is a bit late in the phase. If somebody else could do it that would be great.

Some minor points;

Shadoweh should have known that she wasn't sabotaged last night, or the night before. When Hikaru targeted me for the upgrade, there was a special proviso: The upgrade was only available for that day phase and that night phase, meaning I don't have a shot available tonight. This means that Shadoweh would only have had her regular abilities night 5 and night 4. Please cross check :/

It also means SB didn't jail Shadoweh, and probably put Serela in the clink. Alas.

Night kill analysis:
Bard never crumbed in advance who he was tracking/if his track was available. This makes it impossible to verify his claim really, except for the night 1 business with Shadoweh. Bard, can you do a track tonight? I know you can't outright state the restrictions, but perhaps you can give us enough that we can guess the sequence.

I would have expected a hit on Bard or Shadoweh before Hikaru, because those are the two roles that have the ability to detect and catch a scum. Scum would have known that Conqueror's dream hadn't been the cause of my upgrade because Dan didn't get an upgrade too, so would have known that Hikaru hadn't buffed Shadoweh, so her long distance watching was not available.

So, why not Bard?
1 - Scums considered confirmed town a higher kill priority than a tracker that could find and kill them (I think this is very unlikely with two more night phases before LYLO).
2 - Scums suspected Shadoweh was somehow still watching Bard and couldn't risk the hit (plausible).
3 - Bard is actually scum.
4 - Scums considered the danger of Hikaru randomly upgrading players was too powerful to ignore OR Hikaru had stopped upgrading scum!Shadoweh so his lifespan had been used up.

***

So, why not Shadoweh?
I speculated in my lonely vanilla town quicktopic that Shadoweh or Bard should have been last night's hits. After Hikaru, Shadoweh was the next best guess for town, because she knew about Hikaru's power but didn't kill him off right away. Also, scums would have to consider that Shadoweh's lynch of Zak was pretty much a big gold super town clear, except for the scenario of scum!Shadoweh ultrabussing her buddy.
If they knew that town!Shadoweh couldn't watch, they could risk hitting somebody other than her. Otherwise, she was too bigger priority target to ignore (other than Bard).
Ignoring both Bard and Shadoweh kind of suggests, to me, that one of them is scum...unless...they assumed Hikaru had given me the upgrade (which he did) and that there was no Watcher. In that case they could get the shot off on Hikaru risk free.
So Shadoweh wasn't hit because...
1 - They considered a confirmed town (Hikaru) as a higher priority target (unlikely with 2 days before LYLO).
2 - They knew last night was their window to kill off a valuable power role (likely).
3 - Shadoweh is the scum.

On the balance of things, I have to consider Shadoweh as town, mainly because she did execute Zak when she very plausibly could have executed Dan and gotten clean away with it.

For why not BT/Conqueror, it's largely the same argument. Neither have high evidence gathering roles so they aren't a priority target. And as for me, they didn't know what my upgrade was or even if I would use it effectively.
So it's just a 1- there was a higher priority target/there was a scum.

***

What I want when I wake up is a list of who took what action so we can try and look for some kind of hole, if there is one. Scum probably have to shoot me tonight leaving you with three and LYLO.
Its 2 am I gotta go to bed.

Cut by:
Nice case Bard. I'll reread it when I'm awake.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #149 on:** March 20, 2014, 05:40:46 PM »

I was upgraded on Night 3, meaning I had my better ability Night 4, geez.
You're making your case under the assumption scum knew what my role was when I never claimed it until toDay. >_> I'm p sure people thought I was a Rolecop before, and everyone's been trueclaiming, which doesn't make that very good at finding scum. If BT is scum he'd be immune.