Pictures of Birds Mafia - Game Over

[Polaris]

Zak beat me to the point that it's pretty stupid to call me scummy for having "confidence in something that is not truly facts" (Hero999). I mean, it's a given that nothing is fact (except for mod's words) but what am I supposed to have if not confidence? Do you want me to flounder around uselessly and not come to any conclusions? >_> Maybe I shouldn't have confidence in who I think is scum, either, since we don't know for sure?

It's not like I'm giving a blanket-clear on everyone on the NNR wagon just because they're on the NNR wagon. I took a look at the circumstances surrounding each person's vote on NNR and decided that none of them looked like scum deciding to bus their partner; therefore, the scum are likely on the Shadoweh wagon instead. In other words, I am clearing each person on the NNR wagon individually. This is not a blanket dismissal. I think this kind of way of looking at things is called process of elimination.

I really don't like Conq's position on the Shadoweh wagon?that is to say, the front. The vote on Shadoweh is very impromptu and this post in particular gives me bad vibes (of the scummy variety), making Conq look super eager to create a counterwagon to NNR the scum, while simultaneously jumping off NNR himself (this is scummy). Neither of Conq's votes before Shadoweh (on me and NNR) look like they have any intention of lynching the scum and more like pushing for pushing's sake (this is scummy), and Affinity's notes on NNRxConq relationship is considerable (this is kind of scummy). Conq wasted a lot of time D2 arguing about all the ~*~~*~possibilities~*~~*~ on the levels of Super High-School Level Conspiracy Theory while distracting from the scum on the Shadoweh wagon, and his vote on me is mostly due to the reason that I disagree that those possibilities are possible (this is scummy). You can argue the possibility that Kumasawa Chiyo is the culprit behind the Rokkenjima Murders, but that doesn't negate my theory that the culprit is actually Toshiro Gohda until we open up Schrodinger's cat box yadda yadda yadda.

Congratulations to Serela for getting a job and thank you for thinking I am town but I still want you lynched. Serela's position on the Shadoweh wagon is also pretty scummy, being one of the two who piled on without reason (this is scummy; also, the other is PX). Serela's initial vote on Zakeri is a jokevote which he keeps for no reason until Affinity shows up to give his own reasons, which Serela assimilates into his vote (this is scummy) Then...
...
Then nothing. After that he votes Shadoweh. Before that he makes pretty useless posts without any intention of scumhunting, but looking like he's doing something. Here he comments on how "end of day rush should start happening" while at the same time not doing anything to contribute to wagon consolidation (this is scummy). Serela looks more like he wants to live happily ever after more so than lynching people (this is kind of scummy).

Also, I can see Serela choosing to nightkill Raikaria (mostly joking here)

For those people who think all the scum piling on Shadoweh is Farfetch'd, consider it as Conq starting up the wagon beforehand and Serela joining and NNR bringing up the rear, and see what you think of that.

[Serela]

ilu2 Polly <3 Would sheep ++

Probably going to reread Hero soon since I didn't pay alot of attention to him until recently and I like what Polly says about him

[Polaris]

No idea what you are talking about about Hero other than I gave him a clear yesterday ?_?

[Serela]

wow I'm more sleep deprived then I thought, somehow I saw Hero 999 in your first sentence and completely misinterpreted the whole thing!

[Conqueror]

Responding to Polaris et. al right now, but first I want Polaris to answer these questions that he ignored:

Cool, so you think I'm scum (I don't suppose you'll tell me why but if you would be so kind to do so that would be appreciated). So could you explain the following quote in context?Considering that you were already voting me for being scum, I don't get the perspective in this quote because it indicates that you're coming over to the initial idea that I'm scum. Could you elaborate?

As for the statistics, how do you expect hunting based on statistics to be more productive/accurate than hunting based on words/interactions/cases? It seems more like a massive distraction than anything else, moreover because I don't know how you would use that sort of information even after you've collected it. How would this help (serious question); say you get a hypothetical spread of 3/3/3/1, how is that useful at all, or at the very least more useful than just hunting for scum individually?

Even more so now for the latter since you haven't done anything with these responses (or analyzed the lack thereof, or pushed for people to give responses, etc). This reinforces that it was just empty theory talk that makes you look like you're doing something when you're not.

[PX]

So I get back and I see that Shadoweh is... voting Polaris... for some reason... and has yet to even try to find scum.... Yeah, I don't like most of the clears on her based on absolutely nothing but circumstance despite how TERRIBLE her play is. Reading more.

[Conqueror]

Right, so I'm just going to take this apart.

Zak beat me to the point that it's pretty stupid to call me scummy for having "confidence in something that is not truly facts" (Hero999). I mean, it's a given that nothing is fact (except for mod's words) but what am I supposed to have if not confidence? Do you want me to flounder around uselessly and not come to any conclusions? >_> Maybe I shouldn't have confidence in who I think is scum, either, since we don't know for sure?

It's not like I'm giving a blanket-clear on everyone on the NNR wagon just because they're on the NNR wagon. I took a look at the circumstances surrounding each person's vote on NNR and decided that none of them looked like scum deciding to bus their partner; therefore, the scum are likely on the Shadoweh wagon instead. In other words, I am clearing each person on the NNR wagon individually. This is not a blanket dismissal. I think this kind of way of looking at things is called process of elimination.

This is pretty much a strawman because I'm not arguing that having confidence in non-facts makes you scummy (because this is the basis of mafia play). It's how you push it (like how Youmu pushed that people who helped wagon Pamela in GYA were scummy because it helped to cause a no-lynch).

You say you looked at the circumstances surrounding each person's NNR vote and that none of them looked like scum bussing, but your justification (from #264 etc.) sums up to that if they were scum they would definitely have switched to Shadoweh, which is flimsy. It's a good point in favour of these players, but using it as a hard clear is scummy because in the end you're using bad PoE.

Even given that, let's say that your PoE is fine and so you want to focus on the Shadoweh wagon. My biggest beef with the way you've approached this (from the very beginning of today) is that you've somewhat arbitrarily picked out two names to attack (Conq and Serela) while semi-ignoring the other two, saying that they're bad or whatever. So you used PoE to arrive at a pool of players and then arbitrarily picked out two of them as your top scumreads. That's scummy. Here, I want to you to elaborate on your PX and Zakeri reads, especially considering your stance on PX yesterday and PX switching to Shadoweh fitting the criteria you were using for scum switching to the Shadoweh wagon.

More in next post because I want Polaris to see this first.

[Conqueror]

I really don't like Conq's position on the Shadoweh wagon?that is to say, the front. The vote on Shadoweh is very impromptu and this post in particular gives me bad vibes (of the scummy variety), making Conq look super eager to create a counterwagon to NNR the scum, while simultaneously jumping off NNR himself (this is scummy).

That's right, I started the Shadoweh wagon because she was playing scummily. My vote on Shadoweh was not impromptu at all; earlier in the day I had expressed disapproval of her vote on IHNN; when she proceeded to ignore me I wanted to wagon her to lynch~. I still have no regrets because Shadoweh was trying to be a lazy bum and she still is today.

If I was super eager to create a counterwagon to NNR the scum, why didn't I do it on one of the existing wagons of Zak/Raikaria, which had received voiced support from other people, instead of creating a brand new bandwagon ~5 hours before the end of the day without knowing how well it would stick?

My switch off of NNR was already explained. Can't do anything about it. Must be easy to votepark on your buddy though, eh?

Neither of Conq's votes before Shadoweh (on me and NNR) look like they have any intention of lynching the scum and more like pushing for pushing's sake (this is scummy),

This is just nonsense. Where did you get the idea that I didn't want NNR or you lynched at the time?

and Affinity's notes on NNRxConq relationship is considerable (this is kind of scummy).

Elaborate for me on this because I've already addressed this. Also, if we're going to go this route, let's take a look again at how NNR treats Polaris.
NNR jokevotes me here
NNR expresses dislike of how Polaris is attacking PX, but keeps vote on me.
NNR likes my posts (the only thing I had done at this point was attack Polaris), votes Affinity
NNR dislikes Polaris' vote on him and individually explains why each line of that post is bad. Votes Serela instead.
So NNR has a very natural place to put his vote. He's been attacking Polaris basically all day and buddying to people when all they did was attack Polaris. Yet he never votes Polaris. Look at that last vote especially, when he spends half of his post attacking Polaris and then votes Serela for no content.
So Polaris, what NNR x Conq relationship again?

Conq wasted a lot of time D2 arguing about all the ~*~~*~possibilities~*~~*~ on the levels of Super High-School Level Conspiracy Theory while distracting from the scum on the Shadoweh wagon, and his vote on me is mostly due to the reason that I disagree that those possibilities are possible (this is scummy).

How am I distracting from "the scum" on the Shadoweh wagon? I'm scumhunting based on posts. Your posts are scummy and I am voting you for them.
The latter is a misrep if you've been reading my posts at all, especially my exchange with Affinity when I explicitly stated this was not the case.

You can argue the possibility that Kumasawa Chiyo is the culprit behind the Rokkenjima Murders, but that doesn't negate my theory that the culprit is actually Toshiro Gohda until we open up Schrodinger's cat box yadda yadda yadda.

I don't get what this means.

tl;dr, Polaris' case on me is pretty bad (this is scummy). Serela, apparently you think his case is great, so could you summarize it for me? Seriously Serela, for the love of all that is good in this world, please actually read the game.

[Conqueror]

Polaris is town, would not lynch ++ Partially because of the timing and actual post of voteswitching to NNR

Explain

Other examples are things like this. Some Polly Vs. NNR stuff in their posts also looks totally legit as opposed to fake scum pressuring eachother or whatnot

The first link is Polaris asking you for opinions on Raikaria which is...non-alignment indicative. The second link is NNR disliking Polly's post while voting Serela, which I addressed in my previous post. So...not a town tell either way. Serela, did you think how Zakeri and Raitaki treated each other last game was fake scum pressuring?

I realllly don't like Hero's semilatest post for some reason.

What's wrong with it?

Not sure what to make of Serela defending dead and flipped town Raikaria not once, but twice today (once in response to Dormio and once in that big wall post). It's almost too blatant for him to fake as scum especially after acknowledging his mistake in between the two defences, so I guess I'm leaning town on him for now.

I don't like the voting trend on Polaris. It's tempting for townies to just want to limit themselves to what we know for a fact, and eliminate as many suspects as possible. I'm feeling kind of the same way myself, actually, but I know it's not that simple. I'm very wary of the people that are trying to claim "speaking about circumstantial evidence as if it were fact". There's no reason to go after somebody just because they sound confident in their analysis, especially given that all evidence is circumstantial to begin with (not counting the flips).

On the other hand, this is basically what Zak did with NNR; discredit the wagon without looking at the person the wagon is on, not to mention he's misrepping why I'm voting Polaris, at least. At least Serela's disapproval stems from a town read on Polaris; Zak manages to disapprove of the wagon without expressing any opinion on Polaris himself.

Anyway, I'd be willing to vote Zakeri today too. I'll see if I can muster up another post on that later.

[Conqueror]

So I get back and I see that Shadoweh is... voting Polaris... for some reason... and has yet to even try to find scum.... Yeah, I don't like most of the clears on her based on absolutely nothing but circumstance despite how TERRIBLE her play is. Reading more.

PX, what do you think of Polaris, regardless of Shadoweh?

[Serela]

Not sure what to make of Serela defending dead and flipped town Raikaria not once, but twice today

oh my god so this is what happens when I force myself to stay awake to try and fix my sleep schedule

[Polaris]

Phonepost since I need sleep.
Conq's posts look like walls on my phone screen and I can't do anything with phone
Will only have access to phone before deadline so I'll switch to Serela if we're lynching him.

[PX]

Just got back from pizza lol

Polaris? Well, from his first post from day 2, I don't like it. He immediately clears the entire wagon because, then picks two names, proposes that they're scum for no reason, then provides a reason why he doesn't like me, and just likes Zakeri for no reason. Then he makes a big timeline, but you already refuted it and I agree. This post is absolutely terrible as he's completely discounting one possibility to push the other. Holy shit this post and the follow up one are absolutely terrible. That is an absolute Strawman fallacy, and the second post is nothing but trying to gather a response. This is completely scummy.

I used the word 'guaranteed' relatively, not absolutely, as I assumed that everyone shared my idea that there is scum on the Shadoweh wagon. Maybe my assumption was too daring? Even so, it's incredibly stupid to try to pin someone as scum just because "nothing is ever guaranteed in mafia".

Then don't use guaranteed if you don't mean it. :\

Instead of putting up with Conq's hostility and insanity I would like to pose a question to everyone else.

Now this is a crap line, you're the one that provoked it.

It's not like I'm giving a blanket-clear on everyone on the NNR wagon just because they're on the NNR wagon. I took a look at the circumstances surrounding each person's vote on NNR and decided that none of them looked like scum deciding to bus their partner; therefore, the scum are likely on the Shadoweh wagon instead. In other words, I am clearing each person on the NNR wagon individually. This is not a blanket dismissal. I think this kind of way of looking at things is called process of elimination.

Now, this looks completely contradictory with what you said at the beginning of the day.

On top of all of this, I get a little smug feeling from his posts all day. Do not like let's lynch.

Vote Polaris

[I have no name]

I just tried to remember everyone who was playing.  Did not remember Hero.  Again.

Polaris is at L2 right?  That's where I want to put my vote at the moment unless a Zakeri lynch has enough supporters to go through.  So I will after a votecount so I don't derphammer.

In the meantime ##Vote: Zakeri but willing to switch to Polaris.

Hero please do stuff

[PX]

Serela is still hilariously bad so would lynch as well.

PX is active and such D1, but I kind of don't like a lot of the stuff he actually says, so I'm kind of waffley on him.

What do you not like?

Affinity has been going strong the whole game, as well as put NNR to l-2 when shadoweh was l-1 which is again icing on the cake of a already-good-read

I... actually don't see how that's a good clear for him. In fact, looking at his vote on NNR, it's completely terrible. "More established NNR wagon"? Everybody who established the wagon pretty much LEFT it and EVERYBODY outside of Polaris was just a bandwagon jump onto NNR. How did I not realize this before :\
So yeah, for all you guy pushing the "No scum on NNR", consider this. There is literally no reason why anyone was on the NNR wagon except Polaris.

[PX]

I don't like the voting trend on Polaris. It's tempting for townies to just want to limit themselves to what we know for a fact, and eliminate as many suspects as possible. I'm feeling kind of the same way myself, actually, but I know it's not that simple. I'm very wary of the people that are trying to claim "speaking about circumstantial evidence as if it were fact". There's no reason to go after somebody just because they sound confident in their analysis, especially given that all evidence is circumstantial to begin with (not counting the flips).

Zakeri, you say this, but the one "speaking about circumstantial evidence as if it were fact" is Polaris, who you are hard buddying/sheeping/defending. :\

[I have no name]

There is literally no reason why anyone was on the NNR wagon except Polaris.

I had a reason as well though (I don't remember what it was, had a looooong day, could go look it up but can't be bothered to)

[PX]

I can see where the NNR wagon is coming from and kind of support it.
Additionally (I counted) this ##Vote: NNR brings him to L-2.

No you didn't :V

[I have no name]

No you didn't :V

Oh then I'm remembering something else then.
Clearly I should not post at 1 AM.

[Conqueror]

Uh oops I just realized that the first of my series of posts was responding to something directed at Hero. Just ignore the first paragraph of that post then.

Phonepost since I need sleep.
Conq's posts look like walls on my phone screen and I can't do anything with phone
Will only have access to phone before deadline so I'll switch to Serela if we're lynching him.

>_> Unfortunate and vastly irritating.

PX, do you still think Shadoweh is scum? What do you think of being on a wagon with her if that's the case?

[PX]

Still scum, but she has very little support so :\
She'll show her colors soon

[Conqueror]

PX: So you think she's scum bussing Polaris or what? How many scum do you think there are?

Also, I'm rereading Zakeri and I'm considering switching the wagon over to him. His only post for today is pretty barebones in terms of scumhunting if you strip away the response to Affinity; it's basically a votepark on Serela in line with his day one votepark on Raikaria.

Dormio, NNR defending Serela from PX seems rather null to me; could easily be a grab for town cred by NNR by "defending a townie" if Serela is town, even if NNR never attacked PX directly. As for Serela voteparking on Zakeri, how about Zakeri's voteparks? Zakeri also shared a similar stance towards a NNR wagon yesterday as Serela.

As for why Zak!scum over Serela!scum when they're otherwise pretty terrible with content...I think scum!Serela wouldn't have been have blatant with the NNR wagon, or at least he would have provided some sort of reason for staying off NNR so he wouldn't look completely horrible (this is taking into account how Serela generally treats his scumbuddies). What do you think?

[PX]

PX: So you think she's scum bussing Polaris or what? How many scum do you think there are?

It's possible. It's also possible I'm wrong. Shadoweh's already riding on enough cred as it is, why not bus and get pretty much a tentative clear until LyLo despite doing nothing?

Too many.

[PX]

Hell, she hasn't said why Polaris is scummy so it's more of a votepark than a bus.

[Conqueror]

Also, Shadoweh, if you're town, it'd be really nice if you could actually put in the effort to show that you're town by virtue of being self-evidently town, instead of expecting other people to read you correctly off of barebones posting (even if people are clearing you b/c of the way D1 fell down, correctly or not). It would just make everything easier and more voices is good.  You do like playing mafia, don't you? Come and play with us!

Cut by PX: :V

also fuck, three votes on Polaris? I will kick people if we actually lynch him, everyone voting him should go respond to the paragraph I made w/references on why Polaris is totally town

I already voiced opinion on who I want lynched

I know I haven't actually gotten around to articulating -why- much on anyone other then Zakeri though, or I'd have gone into that further

In any case, it's not like people almost ever listen to me, and getting them off Polaris is a step in the right direction, you take what you can get

Why have you not voted anyone all day Serela and why are you complaining about the lead wagon when you haven't voted anyone in an attempt to make a counterwagon?

[Affinity]

@Serela:: Well, what better way to make yourself heard than to vote?  You're only making the game more confusing, than it should.  If your first vote of the day falls to some 'not me over me' sadness again, I am going to laugh and stuff.

If there was a person coasting on stuff now, it would be Nameless, because I don't remember him giving reasons for his votes since forever (especially when they are today's two out of three leading wagons.  In general, I can't believe people aren't invigorated at a D1 scum lynch, probably the most invigorating thing of them all.  Makes you wonder what they play mafia for, other than lethargically voting like playing Zynga Slots or something.

===

On Polaris, I have to admit that his attack on Conq feels muddled up with cause and effect.  I do agree with some facets (e.g lacking NNR vote), but some of the points he tries to throw on him (e.g 'All Conq has been doing is to trying to distract from the scum on the Shadoweh wagon), which are definitely false, seems to betray what he first set out to disprove (e.g blanket clearing people on the NNR wagon). 

This is counter-balanced by Conq's stuff on NNRxPolaris, which were done through no fault of Polaris' (the major difference!), and sounds rather ineffectually vengeful as a result.  But bah, I do like Conq's content today (more open-minded in general with wider coverage) more than Polaris' in general, who seems more one-dimensional (two scumreads in detail, nothing else.  Doesn't seem to seek to understand Conq). 

I can see scum trying to take initiative early-D2 in this sort of position, so hey, perhaps I'm wrong about the bandwagons after all.  Or maybe it's just him being indignant-town.  Still think Polaris did vote NNR for the right reasons yesterday however, so I still feel that the uprising against him is rather dubious and sheep-y when they take things so broadly and artlessly.

[Hero999]

I just tried to remember everyone who was playing.  Did not remember Hero.  Again.
Hero please do stuff

Not my fault you never remember me, I did do stuff :\
I also don't see how Shadoweh or Zakeri is more memorable then me in this game.

It's possible. It's also possible I'm wrong. Shadoweh's already riding on enough cred as it is, why not bus and get pretty much a tentative clear until LyLo despite doing nothing?

Too many.

Basically Kitten4u's saying in Shadoweh's signature.

I would be...willing to follow a Zakeri wagon if only because there was AtE in his latest post for some reason.
On another note, I can also get behind a Shadoweh lynch at the moment. Honestly she only made 1 post, and it basically points to 4 people and >look into later.
Oh I missed her 2nd post. Which was basically >Vote Polaris and some thoughts.
She isn't really the shiniest one here. :\

@Affinity: Not to defend IHNN or stuff, but IHNN is waiting for a replacement to save him.

[Affinity]

I share Conq's view on Serela about him being a bit too bone-headed and blatant to be scum, and his clear of Polaris seems more genuine than Zakeri's since he actually refers to content D1 and D2.  Him cheering Polaris on even while the latter is busy destroying his face is pure spectacle, and is a testament to how sad Serela is.  His content is decent enough and at least I know his views on the playerbase, though it's not accompanied with a vote.  Don't think I would want to lynch him for today.

Would like to add that I'm not impressed with Zakeri, particularly his vote and his content for today as other people have raised (e.g flubs off people on the Polaris' wagon without saying why,  Goes for Serela for less reasons than he did in going for NNR, and clears PX and Hero for 'town vibes' which were not mentioned).  His response is fine, but in sealing a previous can of worms he has opened up a new one, and thus I'm rather reluctant to get off him (especially for Polaris) on account of his weak D1 and D2.

@ninja by Hero: Not anymore.

[I have no name]

Sorry for coasting, I'm fully aware that I haven't done very much this game, but I have a bit of time now.
Really, I feel like Affinity, Conq and PX have said all there is to be said on my scumreads and going back over the game has yielded nothing new.

I'm still pretty unsure on Serela, and Hero is leaning town for me at the moment.

Not my fault you never remember me, I did do stuff :\
I also don't see how Shadoweh or Zakeri is more memorable then me in this game.

People are talking about them!

[Shadoweh]

Also, Shadoweh, if you're town, it'd be really nice if you could actually put in the effort to show that you're town by virtue of being self-evidently town, instead of expecting other people to read you correctly off of barebones posting (even if people are clearing you b/c of the way D1 fell down, correctly or not). It would just make everything easier and more voices is good.  You do like playing mafia, don't you? Come and play with us!

I'm not doing it on purpose. >_> Yesterday I hadn't slept, and I've literally just woken up now, which I calculate was 14 hours? It was a nice nap. I don't have alot of time right now, so you'll have to settle for bare-bones reads until I get back . I should be home a few hours before deadline which is in.. about 5:45 hours.
Conq = town for actually pushing what he wants (even if it's me),
Serela = town for Serela  because he didn't make a single mention about how NNR might be scum and Serela is a blabbermouth. he should still VOTE FOR WHO HE WANTS LYNCHED
Affinity = want to feel he's town but actually voting scum still makes me suspicious but I've got my eye on you =.=
Dormio = probtown for forgetting who died
other people = there

Polaris = scum for somthing, I'm pretty sure it was for deciding everyone on the flipped wagon was town when MotK has chronic bussing syndrome. Otherwise GUT!

PX, if you're threatening to vig me or something you have no idea how pissed off I will be. I will dedicate the graveyard to singing about what a terrible player you are.