Pictures of Birds Mafia - Game Over

[Polaris]

It is undeniable that there is at least one scum on the Shadoweh wagon, unless people want to imply that both scum bussed NNR against an all-town wagon on Shadoweh. Meanwhile, there is a possibility that the second scum bussed NNR, but also the possibility that they didn't. I personally don't think that they did, but regardless, it's incredibly stupid to try and look for the scum that was supposedly bussing NNR instead of looking for the scum guaranteed to be on the Shadoweh wagon.

Re: Conq - ha ha no scum being on shadoweh what is this

[Conqueror]

Well, yeah etc. This is all theory talk. I'll go through the ISO's later because bussing is bussing and yada yada yada. We can bring up examples of such and such happening til eternity but the jist is that Polaris, your hard clears are pretty bad.
PX, as much as I would like Shadoweh to be scum based on her D1 play, the odds of dual scum wagons both being at L-1 on day one are pretty astronomical, plus I'm getting a marginal town read from her post today.

It is undeniable that there is at least one scum on the Shadoweh wagon, unless people want to imply that both scum bussed NNR against an all-town wagon on Shadoweh. Meanwhile, there is a possibility that the second scum bussed NNR, but also the possibility that they didn't. I personally don't think that they did, but regardless, it's incredibly stupid to try and look for the scum that was supposedly bussing NNR instead of looking for the scum guaranteed to be on the Shadoweh wagon.

Nope, bullshit of the highest order. How you would ever think this as town I don't know. If you are town think about what you're saying.

Here, I have a scenario for NNR/Polaris/Affinity scumteam. Polaris puts a vote on NNR for pressure, while Affinity counters by discrediting the wagon for weird reasons and pushing on Zak. Polaris leaves his vote on NNR the rest of the day. Later, I form a flash wagon on Shadoweh, dissolving the Zakeri and Raikaria counterwagons to NNR. The wagon gets pretty close to lynch pretty quickly. Polaris notes that NNR will probably not be lynched and expresses willingness to move to Shadoweh if need be. Affinity jumps onto NNR for the cred using the reasoning of "established wagons," but is confident that NNR will not be lynched, even with Dormio's L-1. Meanwhile NNR prepares a claim that he'll pull out at deadline that will save him (notice he hadn't claimed at the end of day yesterday) and Affinity prompts him for it, except that Raikaria quickhammers him, ruining that plan. Polaris and Affinity hope to abuse the towncred they get from bussing NNR by lynching everyone on the Shadoweh wagon.

Is this definitely right? No, but it's one plausible scenario. There are lots of others like it, and your blanket dismissal all of them to look for a so-called "guaranteed scum" is pretty scummy given your stated reasoning and the fact that nothing is guaranteed in mafia.

Cut: But scum was on Shadoweh. NNR voted Shadoweh.  :3

[Polaris]

Now that I think about it, Conq ignoring the obvious scum on the Shadoweh wagon and skipping directly to trying to poke holes in my/Affinity's arguments is kind of suspicious. Conq, are you scum?

[Polaris]

Conq, if you disagree that at least one scum is on the Shadoweh wagon, just say so instead of spinning a conspiracy theory.

[Conqueror]

You asking me if I am scum WHEN YOU ARE APPARENTLY VOTING ME FOR BEING SCUM is pretty terrible. It means that your vote on me was a votepark and that you didn't actually think that I was scum. Proof that you're just blindly lynching on the wagon.

Who's the obvious scum on the Shadoweh wagon, by the way? Serious question. Please answer.

##Vote: Polaris

[Conqueror]

Now that I think about it, Conq ignoring the obvious scum on the Shadoweh wagon and skipping directly to trying to poke holes in my/Affinity's arguments is kind of suspicious. Conq, are you scum?

To re-iterate, this statement makes it sound like Polaris is having a sort of "revelation" that I might be scum, except...he's already voting me for being scum. 

Cut: I'm not making any statements about how many scum were or weren't on the Shadoweh wagon because I DON'T KNOW. What I do know is that the way you're pushing this is incredibly scummy.

[Polaris]

I used the word 'guaranteed' relatively, not absolutely, as I assumed that everyone shared my idea that there is scum on the Shadoweh wagon. Maybe my assumption was too daring? Even so, it's incredibly stupid to try to pin someone as scum just because "nothing is ever guaranteed in mafia".

[Conqueror]

Even so, it's incredibly stupid to try to pin someone as scum just because "nothing is ever guaranteed in mafia".

I don't even know that that means. If you want a case on you you'll get a case; I'll write one up later to see if I still agree with my vote. In the meanwhile you can also make a case on me, if you want!

[Polaris]

Instead of putting up with Conq's hostility and insanity I would like to pose a question to everyone else.

What do you, personally, think occurred on D1?

- Both scum were on the Shadoweh wagon
- 1 scum was on Shadoweh and 1 scum bussed NNR
- Both scum bussed NNR

It would be nice if you just picked one, but feel free to choose two, indicating the likeliest and the second likeliest.

[Polaris]

Oh and I personally think that it is the first: that both scum were on the Shadoweh wagon. In case it wasn't obvious.

[Conqueror]

Reiterating for Polaris. I'm asking nicely.  :3

Who's the obvious scum on the Shadoweh wagon, by the way? Serious question. Please answer.

Also, do you think I'm scum? This is also a serious question.

Cut: That's a stupid question because it's impossible to tell. Why would scenarios like that be relevant? The point is that you take wagon analysis as a starting point and work from there, not lock yourself into a position that may or may not be true. 1 scum on and 1 scum off seems "likely" because that's how these wagons usually turn out, but an individual game is an individual game; we're not talking overall statistics.

[Conqueror]

(Also, explain where and how I was being hostile, just for reference. I like to make games enjoyable instead of a race to the bottom.)

[PX]

So you're suggesting that all 3 scum were piled on Shadoweh? That's one of the silliest things scum can ever do. Personally, I think the bussing scum is Shadoweh and NNR, so the last scum can be on either wagon.

[Conqueror]

PX, so who's the last scum? I think you suggested Serela/Shadoweh/NNR earlier? That scumteam doesn't make any sense if you think about their interactions.

[Conqueror]

EBWOP: I'm not actually advocating hunting for scumpairs on D2, I just want to know who else PX thinks is scum besides Shadoweh (really think this is the wrong direction for today).
I'm going to do something else for a bit before I wear out my keyboard.

[Polaris]

Yes, I think you're scum, and I think Serela is scum. You two can probably be scum together, even.

Where am I asking overall statistics? I'm asking each person for their opinion on what happened in this individual game, on D1.
I'm asking this question specifically because it works as a starting point because then we can take a step closer to making a collective decision on who the scum is, and lynch them.

Re: Conq - it is hostile because your asahina avatar is looking at me funny

Re: PX - thank you for your contribution c:

[Polaris]

Instead of putting up with Conq's hostility and insanity I would like to pose a question to everyone else.

What do you, personally, think occurred on D1?

- Both scum were on the Shadoweh wagon
- 1 scum was on Shadoweh and 1 scum bussed NNR
- Both scum bussed NNR

It would be nice if you just picked one, but feel free to choose two, indicating the likeliest and the second likeliest.

PX reminded me that there is a fourth option: Shadoweh might be scum, and the other two bussed both of them (in any configuration). I didn't even consider it as a possibility but PX thinks so so I guess I should add it to the list.

[Polaris]

That is to say, the other one bussed either one of them. I am a derp.

[Conqueror]

Cool, so you think I'm scum (I don't suppose you'll tell me why but if you would be so kind to do so that would be appreciated). So could you explain the following quote in context?

Now that I think about it, Conq ignoring the obvious scum on the Shadoweh wagon and skipping directly to trying to poke holes in my/Affinity's arguments is kind of suspicious. Conq, are you scum?

Considering that you were already voting me for being scum, I don't get the perspective in this quote because it indicates that you're coming over to the initial idea that I'm scum. Could you elaborate?

As for the statistics, how do you expect hunting based on statistics to be more productive/accurate than hunting based on words/interactions/cases? It seems more like a massive distraction than anything else, moreover because I don't know how you would use that sort of information even after you've collected it. How would this help (serious question); say you get a hypothetical spread of 3/3/3/1, how is that useful at all, or at the very least more useful than just hunting for scum individually?

[PX]

I'm more looking at individual play for scum than interactions, considering how half the votes yesterday were basically crap jumps for the sake of lynch. Right now Shadoweh and Serela fit the description best, but I'll look over more when I get home.

[Affinity]

I am indeed advocating that scum heaped its total weight on Shadoweh as a counterwagon to a scum wagon.  6 votes on flipped scum, 6 votes on what is now probtown.  A delicate balance, teetering between a scumflip which would give heavy info for town on D2 as well as Shadoweh being more or less cleared, and one of the mislynches required for scum to win.  Where do you think the scum are?  What do you think scum would do?  Throw fits?

Not interested in Conq's conspiracy theory about 'miscalculating' the wagon balance at the end.   I could have just went back to sleep and there was no way Shadoweh would not be lynched, much more important than any bussing cred.  Pretty outlandish especially from him, much more so than say, definitely one scum on Shadoweh which he seems to lambasting for some reason.  If anyone takes it seriously do tell me, but I'll be ignoring any further discussion on it for now.

I acknowledge that my reasons for clearing NNR were weak.  ED1 (first few pages), people were angry with PX and were voting him down, and NNR was original in voting me.  I'm a stickler for originality.  In any case, I preferred my pet case on Zakeri far more.

At the end, the NNR wagon had several advocates who believed in it from mid-D1, compared to the Shadoweh wagon which amounts to a lurker lynch that everyone seemed happy with + some half-hearted IHNN reason from the beginning.  The earlier was the lesser of the two evils for me.  Compare the LLD lynch on D2 for So You Want to be Townest Mafia.

[I have no name]

As of right now Zakeri is rather ehhh, I dislike Polaris's reasoning but I can see town pushing that, Shadoweh could still be scum but she can wait another day, "yay D! scum lunch", Affinity is town, PX is probably town and so is Conq.

I need to think about Serela some more, Dormio needs to do stuff, and who else is playing?

[Affinity]

Conq claims that his vote was equal in strength to that of Polaris.  I disagree. 

Let's quote his votepost with a few alterations.

Noname's posts make you frown, but which ones?
Votes on Ralkaria make you frown too, but which ones?
Conq's posts make you happy, but which ones?

NNR's response:

#43
Don't see anything wrong with Ralkaria, so yeah they are bad.
Gut, and they make me happy.

After this, despite the last two answers being exact repetitions of their corresponding questions, Conq is completely satisfied with NNR without further reasoning, to the point where he prefers a Zak lynch to an NNR lynch.  Compare this to Polaris where he votes NNR for what he sees as a flimsy vote on me (a more pressing matter than the above), and continues pressing him towards the end of the day, such as here, most importantly keeping his vote.  Conq's vote on NNR is pretty flimsy and similar to a vote-park for possible town cred. 

Notice how NNR also dislikes Polaris for voting him and having gut on Ralkaria, and liked Conq who did more or less the same.

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

(man i fuckin love these pigeons they're like rainbow sherbet ice cream only a bird)

(1) Conqueror - Polaris
(1) Polaris - Conqueror
(1) PX - Hero999
(1) Shadoweh - PX
(1) Zakeri - Affinity
Not Voting (5): Dormio, I have no name, Serela, Shadoweh, Zakeri

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to hammer. You have about 43 hours and 14 minutes left in the day.

Friendly reminder that I'm liable to accidentally skip over your votes if you don't ## them.

[Affinity]

Oh, and Conq seems to forget that scum do not want to commit themselves to a claim as far as possible, especially when there is a town lynch in front of their faces.  Why dance with trackers and cops N1 when you could hold it off till N2?

@Polaris, Obviously, at least one scum on Shadoweh wagon.

[Conqueror]

Affinity:
First, I'll address my vote; as I explained to Raikaria yesterday, these are why I asked NNR these questions:

Unspecific jab at noname without talking about which post he thought was bad or why
Soft defense of raikaria without talking about why votes on raikaria are bad
Soft buddying of me, saying he liked my posts when I made like 2 and they were both focusing on one person.

In short, throwing dirt at someone without saying what's bad about them, throwing dirt at the people on Raikaria's wagon without saying what's bad about that, and then buddying up to me for no reason.

Now, let's look at Polaris's posts on NNR:

##Unvote
##Vote NekoNekoRex

I can actually get around the idea of lynching NNR today. The Affinity vote looks like it came out of nowhere and I don't understand why he needed to "drop PX" when he was holding onto a jokevote on Conq the whole time.

Would like to see NNR's updated stances on Raikaria/Serela. NNR doesn't look like he's looking for scum; the voteprod on Raikaria makes him look like he's doing something, but I don't see any intention of lynching the scums.

"Affinity vote came out of nowhere." Personally I thought the vote was weird but not scummy. Affinity, you yourself said that it was an original vote and so it wasn't that bad, so I'm wonder how this makes Polaris's attack on NNR supertown to you. His later post presses NNR with a vague statement on him not updating his stances while leaving an option open for a jump to Shadoweh at the end of the day.

So I'm pretty miffed at you describing my vote as a votepark and flimsy when my reasons were actually pretty decent. As for why I switched off NNR, as I said before it wasn't for his response. Sometime all townies can give you is "gut," and sometimes you just have to accept that and move on. By then he was being semi-proactive with his vote, and the number of people "not seeing the NNR wagon" and even attacking me for being on it was vastly frustrating, so I decided to look at the rest of the game and found Shadoweh suspicious for ignoring me earlier, and the rest of her content was just as bad. What was your opinion on Shadoweh yesterday?

Notice how NNR also dislikes Polaris for voting him and having gut on Ralkaria, and liked Conq who did more or less the same.

Funny thing that. NNR disliked Polaris at the beginning of the day and apparently liked my posts when all I did was attack Polaris. So why did NNR never vote Polaris in the beginning of the day? (He kept his vote parked on me instead before moving to Affinity).

Getting to the other post.

[Conqueror]

Oh, and Conq seems to forget that scum do not want to commit themselves to a claim as far as possible, especially when there is a town lynch in front of their faces.  Why dance with trackers and cops N1 when you could hold it off till N2?

Scum do want to claim as late as possible, either to prevent a lynch on themselves or to otherwise create confusion. How did I "forget" this?

[Conqueror]

I am indeed advocating that scum heaped its total weight on Shadoweh as a counterwagon to a scum wagon.  6 votes on flipped scum, 6 votes on what is now probtown.  A delicate balance, teetering between a scumflip which would give heavy info for town on D2 as well as Shadoweh being more or less cleared, and one of the mislynches required for scum to win.  Where do you think the scum are?  What do you think scum would do?  Throw fits?

This is a nice bit of rhetoric that doesn't say anything, but I'll answer it. As I said before, I'm pretty sure there was at least one scum on the NNR wagon. I don't see PX as scum, and Zak/Serela as the remaining scum is preposterous. Even if we want to say that the late votes on the NNR wagon are town, how does that absolve the earlier voters on the NNR wagon? If the Shadoweh wagon is already going through, they don't have to lift a finger. The idea that scum dissolved the existing two counterwagons to NNR (Zakeri and Raikaria) to all pile onto a Hail Mary Shadoweh wagon is pretty preposterous. Scum aren't afraid to bus fellow mafia under pressure on D1, especially if the player is a mafia goon. You're suggesting that all three scum decided that the two existing counterwagons didn't have enough support, so they decided to all push Shadoweh in the hopes that her lynch would miraculously go through? And in the meanwhile, 7 townies, five of which hadn't mentioned NNR significantly throughout the day, suddenly found it in themselves to pile onto town over scum? As you said yesterday:

If Shadoweh is indeed scum, why wouldn't they heap on NNR or Zakeri (if they are town)?  It's rather horrible for info as well (how could you tell the scum apart from town on these?)

But substituting NNR for Shadoweh.

So where do I think scum is? I think 1/1 is possible, but I'm not going to work under the assumption that that's the case and end up looking for a phantom scummember on a wagon where they don't exist. So why are you pigeonholing yourself into this and more importantly, ignoring everyone on the NNR wagon?

Not interested in Conq's conspiracy theory about 'miscalculating' the wagon balance at the end.   I could have just went back to sleep and there was no way Shadoweh would not be lynched, much more important than any bussing cred.  Pretty outlandish especially from him, much more so than say, definitely one scum on Shadoweh which he seems to lambasting for some reason.  If anyone takes it seriously do tell me, but I'll be ignoring any further discussion on it for now.

What about the miscalculation? If scum were waiting for an NNR claim to save him, then the odds were strongly in his favour of him surviving the day given general mafia etiquette and Shadoweh would have been lynched anyway. There's no way to know because of Raikaria's derphammer. I'm not adverse to one scum on Shadoweh, but I am extremely adverse to making the assumption that scum is on a wagon and lynching systemically throughout those players in search for these scum, which Polaris seems to be doing. Wagons are there for the info; you take the info and use it along with everything else. Polaris hasn't done any of that; he's assuming the situation that there is scum on a wagon and working from there. That's working from a conclusion and fitting your analysis to go with it, not the other way around as it should be. I'm extremely wary of you, Affinity, for doing something similar.

[Conqueror]

tl;dr hunting for people based on phantom theory is scummy when you should be hunting for them based on their individual posts/votes and on interactions. This is why I'm voting Polaris over Affinity.

And just because some people might be confused, I don't have a problem with looking for scum in [Conqueror, PX, Zakeri, Serela]; incidentally if I were to pick one scum out of those four it woudl be Zakeri. But I do have a problem with ignoring everyone else under the faulty assumption that the remaining scum would be in these four.

[Conqueror]

EBWODP: Also, I'm not actually pushing Affinity/Polaris scumbuddies atm. >_> I was giving an example to counteract Polaris. I don't think that pairing is impossible but it's not a priority for me right now.