Umineko Mafia - Day 4

[Nuclear Fusion]

I have aspirins and I'm not going to be sharing them. Aspirins are headache tablets if you're not sure what I'm talking about.

This was the only possible crumb I could find about who you might give the asprins too.

Why are you beating around the bush on this, pesco?

[nongamerelated] Now I remember why I stopped playing mafia. I get completely overstimulated and lose sleep[/nongamerelated]

[Carthrat]

Yeah I'm changing my mind and seconding pesco instead, here. The waves of bullshit exuding off NF are telling me weird shenanigans are up.

His play the entire game has pretty much involved accusing anyone arguing against him as scummy. He has also now repeatedly made arguments that state 'if I was scum, I would've been cooler', a classic 'ohshit' response if there ever was one.

Cops. Should not. Play recklessly. That is not good for town (it's not good in general for town to play recklessly but even worse for cops, specifically), in fact it's really bad and is a totally wacko mindset to have going into this game that I don't feel can be real. The fact that he was extremely eager to claim super-early is likewise a mark against him.

There is also a weird trait to his posting that assumes a cop is an inevitable fixture in the game, something I am far more willing to attribute to role-holding scum than town of any stripe, and the way he presents it is just downright unnatural as town in general.

His general night-speculation theory- including such brilliants as 'I probably wasn't attacked last night and the doc magically lucked out and successfully protected someone else/scum didn't kill!!1' are totally insane.

##Vote: NF

I am a bit leery of Affinity and Serp, as they've both gone 'NF sucks' and then don't vote him (although admittedly I probably would cut him a lot of slack if it wasn't for that last post.)

Ninjas: for the love of god pesco answer questions straightforwardly.

[Serp]

@Serp - no, I don't think it's possible that I was targeted by the night kill. And in fact, I don't think I suggested I was. I simply stated that it was awesome that the doc saved somebody.

That would require not only that both the scum and the doc both didn't buy your claim, but also that they both happened to target the same person.  I don't believe in coincidences like that.  I guess it's marginally more likely that the scum hit someone bulletproof and we have no confirmed doc, but that's not very likely either.  Also, "I don't think it's possible that I was targeted by the night kill" is a really weird thing to say.  I want to know what makes you think that.

There is nothing beneficial in me claiming that I was role blocked last night, because that makes me more suspicious and I know it. The best claim I can say is that I got scum results on X, watch us lynch X today, and then go down on day three. That is the best play for me if I am mafia.

WIFOM

P.S.  I'm pretty sure it's not possible that we're playing F11, since it's a 9 player setup.

P.P.S.  Pesco, what?  Did you share them or not?

[Nuclear Fusion]

The scum obviously believed my claim, because I was night blocked. I'm no threat to them if I can get information at night. Hell, the rest of you are already so gungho about lynching me, it's beneficial to the mafia not to kill me.

Your conclusion from what I said was false there, serp. How is my saying "the doc didn't target me, and the mafia didn't night kill me" the same as saying "nobody targeted me?"

I don't think I was targeted by the night kill because I was role blocked. If the role blocker is town, then maybe I was targeted by a night kill and a doc. However, role blocker tends to be a mafia role.

That should explain why I wasn't targeted by the night kill?

Also, cart - What?! How is my suggestion insane? If anything, it's the only logical conclusion from where I'm standing. Because the only reason for the mafia to both night kill me and block me is if they assume I'm going to be doced. In which case, there is no reason to kill me.

So yes, I don't think it's insane that the doc got lucky. And I think your trying to hard to discredit me on that.

Waves of BS? What do you people have against trying to offer possibilities? The fact that it looks like WIFOM? Almost everything in mafia looks like WIFOM. There is so little actual fact in a game of mafia that it probably wouldn't even fill a thimble. The most fact you'll get is from the dead. Everything else is pretty much subject to WIFOM. So yes, waves of BS. Right.

[Pesco]

You guys need to stop looking for stuff that isn't there.

1) I said I'm not sharing my aspirins, it means I'm keeping their benefit for myself. Aspirins were ingested because I did have a headache.
2) The only confirmation of my role is that I never said I was vanilla.

Cut: Your scenario requires some insane haxlike probabilities, like those seen in GWU mafia. It can't be happening again because Alice is mod this time and we didn't have a massclaim to result in perfect info for scum to manipulate.

[Affinity]

What's the use of possibilities when each one is as likely as the other, especially when you attempt to present a point of view where you are scum?  How are we to logically deduce which possibility is better than the other and make our choice?  We can't, it's impossible, really, so why present them?

And if knowledge in mafia other than bandwagon analysis can fit into a thimble, what are your reasons for believing in your votes and their reasons?  What are your reasons for going into gambits?  What are your reasons for being reckless?  It's still illogical and I don't get it.  Also, idiots are bad town.  Bad town deserves as much to be lynched as scum, really, because they only obscure the scum; because good town probably wouldn't make these mistakes.  And well, since you admitted that you have been idiotic for this game at least, I'm sure we would have no trouble with lynching you.

Please do answer to this, if nothing else, why do you go into gambits and votes when you yourself believe that there is nothing we can do without bandwagon analysis.  I don't believe you have done that yet this game.  You are hypocritical for this, making your position all the more unconvincing. 

I'm quite alright with lynching you today for the reasons presented already, except for the lack of NK thing which I don't think was all that impossible.  I just want Zakeri to answer to my query first.

[Nuclear Fusion]

I do what I do for fun, and nothing more. Mafia is about enjoyment, and I'll play it how I see fit.

No, it's not hypocritical. Gambits are a more sure fire why of catching scum in some cases then bandwagons. Furthermore, I'm just as much in need of doing something as the rest of you. I'll shoot in the dark as much as any of you, and see if I get lucky. But gambits often turn up more information than anything else.

What's even funnier is that you assume I said we only had bandwagon analysis. Now I know your not even reading my posts, thanks affinity.

It's funny, I think you guys are caught in a pattern, and somebody came and tried to shake it up. Your all so set on how you guys play that you can't possibly fathom how somebody else might play. For this reason, I'm stuck no matter what I do. 

Also, I'd self vote since you guys clearly want me dead, but I hate people who self vote. So I'm jsut not going to bother posting except after this one.

My theory on who scum are - Affinity and Pesco.

Pesco is likely the role blocker and is lying about his ability.

Anyway, ya, I can see at some points how I may have been thinking differently and said somethings which are illogical. Then again, I'm glad for this little foray back into mafia, because it's taught me more about how logic needs to work, not how I think it works.

Anyways, go ahead and lynch me now. You'll find that I've not once lied. That information aught to be useful for town.

Oh, and on the subject of replacing me - in case somebody cares to try... I don't think he'll be in any better position, so don't bother.

[Carthrat]

Because the only reason for the mafia to both night kill me and block me is if they assume I'm going to be doced. In which case, there is no reason to kill me.

Presumably scum do not know if there is a doctor or not, and may feel forced to hedge their bets. It's quite reasonable to consider that you'd be simultaneously NK'd and blocked at the same time, and far more likely than a potential doc not protecting you and somehow getting lucky.

Which is stupid to assume anyway; the best possible move for a doc, given the information that was at hand, is to protect a copclaim and see what happens. That you were attacked and defended is the most logical viewpoint for a true cop to have. Tossing about the idea of all these crazy theories is something, I think, that only scum actually implementing a crazy plan would come out with, with an eye to their position in the future of the game.

NF Ninja: "I'll play however I want and you're bad for thinking that's bad" is a pretty unhealthy attitude to take to mafia and completely ignores the fact that it's a team-based game. Geezus.

[Serp]

The scum obviously believed my claim, because I was night blocked. I'm no threat to them if I can get information at night. Hell, the rest of you are already so gungho about lynching me, it's beneficial to the mafia not to kill me.

Your conclusion from what I said was false there, serp. How is my saying "the doc didn't target me, and the mafia didn't night kill me" the same as saying "nobody targeted me?"

If you're really the cop (in which case scum would know that you're telling the truth) and you really did get roleblocked, I'd be much quicker to believe that scum used roleblock and kill on the same person just to be safe, since we had no evidence for a doc before the lack of night kill this morning.  After all, there's no way to block a roleblocker's action without the identity of the roleblocker.

I don't think I was targeted by the night kill because I was role blocked. If the role blocker is town, then maybe I was targeted by a night kill and a doc. However, role blocker tends to be a mafia role.

The idea of a townie roleblocker using his ability on you in the first place is even further out there.  I mean, it's one thing to not buy your story, and it's another entirely to make sure that even if you're telling the truth, you won't be able to confirm an innocent with your ability.

That should explain why I wasn't targeted by the night kill?

And the fact that you seem so certain that scum didn't try to hit you is also really strange.

Waves of BS? What do you people have against trying to offer possibilities? The fact that it looks like WIFOM? Almost everything in mafia looks like WIFOM. There is so little actual fact in a game of mafia that it probably wouldn't even fill a thimble. The most fact you'll get is from the dead. Everything else is pretty much subject to WIFOM. So yes, waves of BS. Right.

. . .  And the continued "No such thing as a genuine scumtell" rears its head again.

Cut: Your scenario requires some insane haxlike probabilities, like those seen in GWU mafia. It can't be happening again because Alice is mod this time and we didn't have a massclaim to result in perfect info for scum to manipulate.

Assuming three scum, the doc's odds of protecting a townie last night if he picked at complete random would be 70%.  Within that 70% chance, the odds of the mafia picking the same townie to kill are one in seven, so the odds of the scum hitting the doc's pick at random are 10%.  Maybe a little more than that in reality, 'cause no one picks with complete randomness.  The doc would be looking for the scum's most likely target.

I am a bit leery of Affinity and Serp, as they've both gone 'NF sucks' and then don't vote him (although admittedly I probably would cut him a lot of slack if it wasn't for that last post.)

I'm holding my vote 'till Sodium shows up.  Ninja'd:  The fact that Nuke is apparently quitting doesn't help matters, though. :V

[Pesco]

*snarky modkill comment removed*

If you are town, you'll be no significant loss if you were allowed to continue with that kind of philosophy.
If you are scum, consider yourself fortunate for being able to scrape day 1.

[Kiro]

To avoid repitition about NF's situation, we're not going to be any surer of NF's roleclaim unless someone else also claims they were roleblocked.

Question to Serpentarius: You say in #153 that you think Donut defending Pesco "may be justified at this point." I missed this earlier and should have questioned your reasoning as to why you thought this. I know this is now coming after Donut's flip, but let's hear what you have to say anyways.

Looking at Zakeri #169, there are a bunch of questions I have regarding that. First looking at:

it feels to me that you think voting me is a safer lynch to push.

Actually, I think pushing your lynch (Pesco's lynch) when I did was less safe than pushing the lynch on Nuke, since "Pesco feels like scum by gut and Nuclear feels like scum by facts".

You're just stating an opinion without really answering Pesco's concern. So it looks like a deflection to me. The point is that in your comparison between Pesco and NF in #88, you vote Pesco despite giving what looks like more factual negatives against NF. Still looks like a deliberately odd choice.

And then midway through #169, you actually decide to back off and unvote Pesco. You don't revote anybody by the end of this post and Pesco was not in danger of any speed lynch so I don't know why you did this. Should note though that this also drops Pesco's wagon back down to 3 votes, making it equal with Donut and Dorian. You then unofficially vote Nuclear Fusion, I guess for symbolic sake which if anything is a reversal from your comparative stance between the two of them (even after NF's claim). And then at the end, you say you're not sure who to put your vote on, yet you also say of the 3 wagons, the one you are "entirely unhappy" with is Donut. The thing is that you never mention or quote anything of Donut's until you get to this tl:dr part at the end. So you suddenly hold your vote and it looks like you hint at a Donut vote out of the blue and when all the wagons are tied. You end up being the swing vote that shifts the momentum from Pesco to Donut who becomes a mislynched Townie. I feel that whole post has a weird feel to it.

One thing to mention regarding Pesco, he said that Nietz would be his second choice after NF.

And according to the voting record, Nietz has never gone near NF.

The thing is neither has Zakeri or I gone near NF for those amongst us who publically admitted not liking NF's claim. In this regard, both Zakeri and Nietz had voted for Pesco. And Pesco had spent time to ask Zakeri why he had voted him over NF. So Pesco, how does Nietz suddenly deserve your second vote over Zakeri?

Conclusion: I see a funny triangle between Pesco, Zakeri and NF now with distancing and/or confrontation that could both indicate scumbuddy pairings. In terms of the individual who I'd vote for the most, Zakeri's influence as the vote swinger objectively makes him look the worst in regards to Donut's mislynch, especially when he gave little actual points for why Donut was the one he was the most unhappy with when he hinted at it. Crazily enough, statements above can give the impression he's trying not to have Pesco or NF lynched while at the same time Pesco has been gunning for NF for a while. It's messy all around.

The whole deal with Nuclear Fusion seems to be we can't see eye to eye on anything from playstyle to probability of the Doc protection or whatever. You're continually drawing attention to yourself and touting your role now even when you are effectively useless including preemptively defending your scenario and comparing it from Town/Scum perspectives. Holding the roleblocker in place doesn't mean that much because you're actually ensuring that the roleblocker is doing something useful for the Mafia. I'd vote between you and Zakeri equally as there is also a decent scumbuddy link between the two of you, but I'll settle for Zakeri ONLY because if I'm wrong about either of you... at least you are holding the roleblocker in place.

##Vote Zakeri

[Serp]

Question to Serpentarius: You say in #153 that you think Donut defending Pesco "may be justified at this point." I missed this earlier and should have questioned your reasoning as to why you thought this. I know this is now coming after Donut's flip, but let's hear what you have to say anyways.

The full relevant quote was:

Donut has been defending Pesco, but I think that may be justified at this point.  We're running low on time, and so we should be saying why we're dismissing the cases that we don't subscribe to.

It's not that I thought that Pesco was any more worthy of defense at that point - rather, time was running down, so it's well within townie conduct to attack the cases that you don't subscribe to.  Earlier in the day, I think it's more of a scumtell to defend other people, since you ought to let them defend themselves and see what comes of that, but late in the day, there's just not time for the exchange to continue that way.

[Pesco]

Stayed up late to write this I see

I had already resigned to being lynched when I gave gave Nietz as my second choice. It's an opinion from a self-centered defensive position. I'll need a review to reconstruct my points against him. Basics of it being that I felt he was voting me purely from siding with Rou's view and providing nothing special on me.

[Sodium]

Alright, let's see:
New NF:
"Oh hey guys, I was roleblocked"
I am inclinded to remain suspicious of stuff like this due to certain games that were played here with similar situations, except the player in question was a lot less reckless.

"If I were scum" WIFOM.
If you were scum, you'd know what you would do if you were scum, so you'd do the opposite of that. But wait, you know that the town expects you to do that, so you'll do the opposite!

"Guys, I play Mafia with my own style, which is making useless gambits. You guys play in a boring way"
-_- Because playing in a logical manner is obviously not as good as jumping to random conclusions and creating Grand Asspulls.

NF, I have no clue to as what the hell you're trying to do. If you're trying to redeem your anti-town/scummy actions from Day 1, you're doing it wrong, because you're acting exactly like on Day 1.

Pesco:
Well, everything previous to Post 176, I thought you could be scum or town, seeing as you were doing what you do every game. Useless comments, fight with Roukan, etc. Well, you're scummy every game, but I'm leaning neutral rather then scum now.  However, I'd like to ask you a question about post 176. What was the point of it? It really is obvious information, and it looked like purposely weak distancing from Donut.
Oh yeah, it was around that time when you started breadcruming stuff, such as your role. Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge imformation?
Afterwords, Pesco is trying to get NF killed for being useless. Nulltell, because while Pesco is trying to lynch the cop, NF is useless right now, and is possibly scum trying to act like a cop.

Nietz:
Makes a case on Donut, claiming he wants to attract a bandwagon...thus, starting the Donut bandwagon, somewhat. Now, Donuts bandwagon didn't go anywhere because NF started getting a load of (justified) votes. But still, what the hell?
Abandons Donut vote, using the same reason Pesco would use later; Donut could not possibly pull it off(he's an idiot). Whee! Then hops onto NF's/Pescos wagon. Votes Pesco after NF's copclaim, and then the rest of the day, he tries to help Roukan bury Pesco. I agree with Pesco saying that Nietz was basically following along with Roukan without much originality, which seems opportunistic.
[notserious]Oh yeah, Nietz is always scum. XD[/notserious]

Basically, I'm going to vote Nietz, because NF seems more like completely useless townie cop, and I'd like Pesco to answer my questions before I do anything else.

##Vote:Nietz

[Sodium]

EBWOP:Oh yeah, right. I'm going to do a re read of Zakeri.

[Pesco]

176 was me prepared to be lynched. I state my view and how it should be taken.

Why does only 176 stand out to you for questioning?

[Pesco]

NF's posts from most recent to the beginning of the game that accuse Affinity of anything.

From what I see in those first 100 posts, however... I see Dorian not doing much of anything, I see Cart jumping to dorian's defense whenever he can, I see Affinity doing almost nothing also. I see Serp generally trying to hunt scum. I see donut and pesco getting conflated for almost no reason, mostly because of Rouk and Neitz. Rouk and Neitz also seem to be generally searching for scum. Zakeri seems happy to just jump on whatever looks shiny at the moment. And Kiro... I don't even know what he is doing exactly.

So my scum list right now is Dorian, Cart, and Affinity. Pesco is following it up only because I don't like his claim, which is a terrible reason to want to lynch somebody I think. Leaning townie on Neitz, Serp, and Rouk, and feeling pretty mediocre on the rest.

Affinity ? You should read more Oscar Wilde
Wonders why I have a problem with a weak reason. Wonders why I didn?t vote Neitz if I don?t like Neitz?s weak reason and I didn?t have a serious vote beforehand. Votes me. Thinks pesco is avoiding questions.

Affinity - Are you normally an aggressive player? Do you feel the need to throw a vote around every post? Please respond to this.

...

So the only person I've got any feelings on is... Dorian, huh.

That's al that's said about Affinity before the vote. I think it's strange that you should decide to vote Affinity right from the go based on this progression of suspicion. Furthermore, investigating Carthrat is fine but even without a result, why was there no preliminary case presented on him?

This is serious flailing.

[Nietz]

About NF: Roleblocked claims sucks, because it's one of the things a fake cop is most likely to claim, the other being that he investigated the NK'd guy. However, if he is indeed a cop and scum does have a RB, it would be the most likely action for them as well.
I don't see how Nk'ing and roleblocking the cop would be a likely strategy for scum. Seems a waste of resources, considering that a town-NF would be a prime candidate for lynch after coming up with a "I got blocked".
The lack of death was unexpected, I can only suppose a doc guessed right or scum hit a bulletproof.

1) I said I'm not sharing my aspirins, it means I'm keeping their benefit for myself. Aspirins were ingested because I did have a headache.
2) The only confirmation of my role is that I never said I was vanilla.

Speaking of BPs, the only possible way I can interpret this claim is as a limited-use bulletproof. If it's true, then that would make you the failed target of scum last night. And I just can't see scum targeting you. Ever.

Perma RB is lame, so the supposed cop isn't going to deliver anything for the rest of the game? By his merits as a player alone, he's good to be lynched.

What's that supposed to mean? That he should be lynched even if he is a cop, because he's not going to be of use?

Nietz:
Makes a case on Donut, claiming he wants to attract a bandwagon...thus, starting the Donut bandwagon, somewhat. Now, Donuts bandwagon didn't go anywhere because NF started getting a load of (justified) votes. But still, what the hell?
Abandons Donut vote, using the same reason Pesco would use later; Donut could not possibly pull it off(he's an idiot). Whee! Then hops onto NF's/Pescos wagon. Votes Pesco after NF's copclaim, and then the rest of the day, he tries to help Roukan bury Pesco. I agree with Pesco saying that Nietz was basically following along with Roukan without much originality, which seems opportunistic.
[notserious]Oh yeah, Nietz is always scum. XD[/notserious]

Basically, I'm going to vote Nietz, because NF seems more like completely useless townie cop, and I'd like Pesco to answer my questions before I do anything else.

I did find scum-pesco once with the Preemptive Bandwagon theory (even though town didn't believe me and he stealth-hammered me then), so I thought it could be applied here as well. I did give up on that because wasn't acting like the kind of player that pulls this kind of plot (which is different than pesco saying he's an idiot so it's OK to ignore him).
And while I did agree with Rou's arguments, it's not like just decided to agree with him at one point and call pesco scum. If you look at my Day 1 post you'll see that in almost all of them I'm suspicious of pesco.
Besides, if you believe NF is town, why wouldn't I choose him over pesco? It would have been completely justifiable at that point.

If I were to say what tipped me over to pesco, it was his aspirin-crumbing shenanigans. I don't see how that would be useful except as a way to pave his way to a believable flavour-claim.
So yeah, I'm still for a pesco lynch.

##Vote pesco

[Pesco]

What's that supposed to mean? That he should be lynched even if he is a cop, because he's not going to be of use?

We have no proof other than his word that he's a cop. Ignoring what role he is, his play has been scummy enough to warrant being lynched.

Speaking of BPs, the only possible way I can interpret this claim is as a limited-use bulletproof. If it's true, then that would make you the failed target of scum last night. And I just can't see scum targeting you. Ever.

And I never claimed as such either. There's no rule that prevents scum from forgoing their NK.

[Sodium]

Got back from going places w/family. I'll have something on Zak later. First, answering time.

@Pesco:
It stands out because if you were to flip scum, it would implicate Donut(who would be alive if you were lynched) more then if you hadn't said anything, because to me, it looked like a purposely poor way to distance yourself from a "scumbuddy". There's little to no need for you to say anything if you were town, as it should be assumed that town or scum could have defended town(town or scumDonut could have defended townPesco), and is thus a null tell. This depends on two things though. One, Donut was town, which he was, and two, you're scum, which I can't prove right now, but I can assume due to various things. Even then, that statement was useless at best, if you really are town.

summary: I think that post seemed to be a way for scumPesco to help out scum by making donut a prime lynch target day 2, before he got lynched, which was what he was assuming would happen. It didn't happen.

Pesco, you didn't answer my second question.
Oh yeah, it was around that time when you started breadcruming stuff, such as your role. Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge information?
I do believe that Nietz is also interested in that.

If I were to say what tipped me over to pesco, it was his aspirin-crumbing shenanigans. I don't see how that would be useful except as a way to pave his way to a believable flavour-claim.
So yeah, I'm still for a pesco lynch.

@Nietz:
Oh, it happened in another game? Well, I guess it's a fair point.
Alright then.
The only reason I find NF town is because no one counter claimed cop. Even then, he's useless in his current state, as he is being roleblocked apparently, and he's being useless during the day too.

Apparently, Pesco needs a reason to answer questions.
##Unvote
##Vote Pesco

Also, votecount?

[Sodium]

Zakeri:
Firstly, he doesn't post much. Not sure if this is lurking or real life stuff, but just something to note.

His first serious post is a summary of posts of Donut, Pesco and NF, along with opinions on the previous three, an opinion on Dorian, and answering Carthrat. His next post, which is a summary of the first serious one, has him voting Pesco, and stating that he could possibly vote NF. Nothing new or suspicious there; Pesco and NF were the two primary targets during that time. From his lists, it'd seem like he'd vote NF, but Pesco was a fine target too. Taking in some other stuff later on, it could be Zak bussing Pesco, assuming they're scum.

Zakeri then responds to NF's 87. Nothing wrong here either, although you can see his focus start to home onto NF, from his initial Pesco and NF. [irrelevant]The first quote response was pretty funny.[/irrelevant]

Zakeri vanishes for almost 100 posts. Procedes to unvote Pesco and "vote" NF while questioning NF on various matters, and gives an opinion of Donut's vote change. The major thing here is that he finally unvotes Pesco, and votes NF, which is a pretty logical step considering his focus on NF.

Zakeri's 197, I find weird. He suddenly decides that Donut is the least likely to be town out of the Three Wagons of Day 1, after he was looking at Pesco and NF more. States his thoughts on Dorian, and Pesco. His previous post was stating that he thought Donut's vote change was a null tell too. So...what? Why with sudden change of opinion on that?

Also, Zak says Pesco is good for stating his thought process, although I find that this is ironic. Zakeri(well, everyone pretty much) disliked NF's "effort=clear", and yet he himself was doing the same with Pesco, and how he liked Pesco was explaining his thought process. Basically, replace "NF" with "Zakeri", and "effort" with "Explaining thought process". Scummy thought process can exist too, just like scummy effort.

Overall, I find that Zakeri was fine until the end of Day 1, where he has a sudden change of heart concerning Donut(perhaps to secure Donut's lynch?), and his dubious reason for not voting Pesco. I'm currently fine with changing my vote to Zakeri, although I'm staying with Pesco until he gives some sort of answer to my question.

...Oh right, he has a post in Day 2. Uh, says he still dislikes NF, and randomly does some setup guessing. =V I really don't see anything here that changes my opinion of him.

[Pesco]

Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge information?

Why would breadcrumbing be a pro-town way to divulge information? Because it's better than massclaiming like an idiot and painting a target on myself for speculation.

It stands out because if you were to flip scum, it would implicate Donut(who would be alive if you were lynched) more then if you hadn't said anything, because to me, it looked like a purposely poor way to distance yourself from a "scumbuddy". There's little to no need for you to say anything if you were town, as it should be assumed that town or scum could have defended town(town or scumDonut could have defended townPesco), and is thus a null tell. This depends on two things though. One, Donut was town, which he was, and two, you're scum, which I can't prove right now, but I can assume due to various things. Even then, that statement was useless at best, if you really are town.

summary: I think that post seemed to be a way for scumPesco to help out scum by making donut a prime lynch target day 2, before he got lynched, which was what he was assuming would happen. It didn't happen.

Clarify this. It makes absolutely no sense why you would vote Donut when changing your vote (with a substantial reason) to me would have been a wagon swinger. Further, tell us what the outcome is if I had flipped town? How does that make Donut look then?

Alice: I demand a copy of the day's final voting be included in the day end post.

[Pesco]

EBWOP: Lame IIoA from Sodium ethynylbenzoate

[Sodium]

Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge information?

Why would breadcrumbing be a pro-town way to divulge information? Because it's better than massclaiming like an idiot and painting a target on myself for speculation.

Town knows wastes time figuring out what the breadcrumbs mean.
Confusion may arise.
YOU STILL GET SPECULATED ON, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENTLY. Instead of people speculating on how to use your ability or whatever the hell you're trying to avoid, people are speculating what your role is. A difference, but you're still painting a target on yourself for speculation.

Clarify this. It makes absolutely no sense why you would vote Donut when changing your vote (with a substantial reason) to me would have been a wagon swinger. Further, tell us what the outcome is if I had flipped town? How does that make Donut look then?

If you flipped town, then it would be a null tell on Donut. You didn't have to say anything for people to assume that. Town or scum can defend town. Why make obvious statements that can cause suspicion on other people depending on what you flip?

Also, I didn't think anything of 167 until Donuts flip. At the time, Donut seemed like a good vote and lynch target. I told you it depended on two things, and one of them was what Donut's alignment was. If I didn't know what Donut's alignment was, it'd just be pointless WIFOM, that wouldn't work at all. The only reason it works is because there are two main possibilities; you're scum or town. Why you would seemingly defend Donut if you were town, I have no idea. I do see why you would seemingly defend Donut if you were scum though. You posted it twice too, three posts apart, so that seems that you wanted it remembered if you died.

[Pesco]

It certainly caused problems in that I didn't die because you didn't vote me.

I wasn't around when my wagon got derailed, so tell me from your perspective how it happened that I was no longer the prime lynch?

[Sodium]

I wasn't around when my wagon got derailed, so tell me from your perspective how it happened that I was no longer the prime lynch?

I wasn't technically playing when your wagon got derailed. It was Zakeri that pushed the Donut wagon above the others though(for what I think is a dubious reason), and Roukan(lol) was the one that derailed your wagon, and put Donut at L-1(so that there'd be a lynch). Yeah, I know, useless info, etc. That's all I know of the derailing though.

[Pesco]

Okay then, let's hear from Zak about his wagon swinging.

[Nietz]

We have no proof other than his word that he's a cop. Ignoring what role he is, his play has been scummy enough to warrant being lynched.

While I agree that his actions have been scummy by themselves, I don't know how simply ignoring that he claimed cop and being rolebocked would help judging the situation.

And I never claimed as such either. There's no rule that prevents scum from forgoing their NK.

Of course you didn't, you've been avoiding being straight about everything you do the whole game, but it's the logical way for any other player to interpret your vague claim.
And why would scum forgo a NK? Only time I ever remember that being pulled out was us in GWU, to confirm a fake doc.

Why would breadcrumbing be a pro-town way to divulge information? Because it's better than massclaiming like an idiot and painting a target on myself for speculation.

Because the only option is to either massclaim or breadcrumb? And considering your claimed role would only affect yourself, there's no use to town for any breadcrumbs. The only possible purpouse would to validate a later claim, which is much more useful for scum trying to bullshit town.

[Pesco]

There's nothing more to my role for me to claim. I have aspirins, I use them, headache goes away. Whether or not headaches are significant for any other role, it's not known to me.

[Serp]

Mod Insert, because Pesco wanted it:

Day 2 Vote Count - 2 Days, 3 Hours remaining
Nucleaire Fusion (3) - Pesco, Carthrat, Serpentarius
Pesco (2) - NEETz, EX NaBrO_3
Zakeri (2) - Affinity, Kiro
Affinity (1) - Nuclear Fusion
NEETz (0) - EX NaBrO_3

--------------------------------------------------------

Pesco was breadcrumbing his claimed role from the beginning of the game.  That doesn't seem like a townie move at all.  It seems to me like a plot in advance for the purpose of validating his own roleclaim for when he gets to L-1.

About NF: Roleblocked claims sucks, because it's one of the things a fake cop is most likely to claim, the other being that he investigated the NK'd guy. However, if he is indeed a cop and scum does have a RB, it would be the most likely action for them as well.
I don't see how Nk'ing and roleblocking the cop would be a likely strategy for scum. Seems a waste of resources, considering that a town-NF would be a prime candidate for lynch after coming up with a "I got blocked".

I'm looking at this from the other side - scum would rather kill the cop than just perpetually roleblock him, since if the roleblocker dies then the cop is suddenly dangerous again.  But if a doc is out there, then the kill would almost certainly be blocked, 'cause the doc would see no one more likely to be attacked than a claimed cop.  Furthermore, Nuke doesn't seem to be a prime candidate for lynch despite all this weirdness.  I get suspicious when other players don't seem to be seeing the same things I do.

Another thing I've noticed in my readthrough: it's just bad for Nuke to mention who he supposedly tried to investigate.  If scum has a framer, it gives them a clear person to frame, opening up all sorts of WIFOM if they purposefully leave him unblocked.  Combine this with his early roleclaim and all his strange conduct so far, and I just don't believe that he's actually the cop.  Combine that with the fact that he seems to be calling it quits, refusing to put anything more out there, and I don't see why we should give him another night to screw with us.

##Vote Nuclear Fusion

Still willing to vote Pesco.  I just did a re-read of Zakeri, too, and I do think it's odd how he distances himself from the nascent Donut wagon, then pushes Pesco 'till he looks like a sure lynch before suddenly backing off, distancing himself from the likely lynch again, and turning against Nuke.  He favored lynching the claimed cop on the first day, which I think was a scummy move, then when both the Pesco and the Donut wagons looked to have stalled, with Dorian as the apparent next up for lynching, he finally came down on Donut without any apparent provocation.  Count me as supporting a Zakeri lynch too at the moment.