Himelander Mafia Thread (Over! Scum Win!)

[UncertainJakutten]

##Challenge: UncertainKitten vs. Serpentarius

How ironic it is to say those words due to situations outside the game.

[Chaore]

You're still using absolutely terrible scumcalls and your own playing style as an excuse for being certain. This is my main beef right here. You're acting certain over things that you frankly should not be certain over.

All just for PRESSURE? You are aware Pressure is not something that targets scum only, correct? Its not some magic Anti-scum manuever.

I... Can not say I actually see how that helps you find scum. If you mess up or are wrong on your first read, you basically waste time being certain on one person. Can you explain how this part works out?

NinjaUK:

Oh uh- Wait, Four minutes? How long ago was-

Hoping I get in before challenge gets through. I'd like to stress I want to hear what Alice thinks, so can I call for a bit longer?

Really, since its the first times I've seen Alice actually here and pushing a challenge, I want to get his two cents.

Ninja UK2: Welp nope. Time for a bit of a reread then.

[Edible]

Challenge accepted.  Let UncertainKitten and Serpentarius fight to the bitter end.

You have 48 hours to choose a winner between them.

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[UncertainJakutten]

Vote UncertainKitten

I... Can not say I actually see how that helps you find scum. If you mess up or are wrong on your first read, you basically waste time being certain on one person. Can you explain how this part works out?

The pressure, you see, forces players to act slightly differently, and as the game goes on I can adjust my read accordingly. Granted, a reread is also involved usually with changing reads, as I mostly have on Kiro

THAT QUESTION IS STILL OUT THERE PEOPLE! ANSWER IT PLEASE!

Hoping I get in before challenge gets through. I'd like to stress I want to hear what Alice thinks, so can I call for a bit longer?

Really, since its the first times I've seen Alice actually here and pushing a challenge, I want to get his two cents.

To be fair he can still post, but I'm sorry if I rushed a bit :S.

You're still using absolutely terrible scumcalls and your own playing style as an excuse for being certain. This is my main beef right here. You're acting certain over things that you frankly should not be certain over.

Again, it's what I do.

[UncertainJakutten]

Umu...to amend the last post.

As for "absolutely terrible scum calls", I called Tom and Ciato, correct? Granted, they were pretty much obvious scums. I don't think "absolutely terrible scum calls" holds.

[Ranmilia]

Alice:  I don't see how I could be clearer there?  Anyone stepping in and opportunistically offering to take a head is quite scummy, because, uh, that's how the scum would best get heads.  A random pairing on the other hand is not too bad for town since we lynch the scummier player and then in future days take out the people who were supposed to challenge and didn't - in a manner of town's choosing. 

Anyhow.  Kefit's arguments on Serp are quite good and sum up the concerns I have with him as well.  The case against UK, well, I think everyone's seen today.  I'm pretty torn on these two, leaning pro-UK at the moment as her behavior's shaped up some recently, but not too strongly.  Thoughts?

[FinnKaenbyou]

I was about to vote Serp, but:

Again, it's what I do.

Wait, what? You admit your play is horrible and you're excusing yourself with meta?!

Now you've gone and got me conflicted again. T_T

[UncertainJakutten]

Wait, what? You admit your play is horrible and you're excusing yourself with meta?!

Check my EBWOP.

And you are sure one to talk about "horrible play"

Dear god, can the pot kettleing get any worse ?

But, am I clear that you were going to vote against me?

[FinnKaenbyou]

I'm really at the point with this game where I want to make my irritation known.

The setup is confusing and begging to be broken by one side or the other, but I can live with that. What pisses me off is that any game I play with you descends into a bitchfest on our part. The instant I make one slipup or typo or whatever you're calling me obvscum and throwing any curses you feel like at me.

I admit that there's plenty to say you're scummy from, as well as Serp, but I sort of want to lynch you right now just so you'll stop harrassing me for not agreeing with you. At least Serp doesn't call you every name in the book when he thinks you're scum.

I don't know how it happened, but I feel like MotK Mafia turned way too aggressive, which led to things like UD's breakdown last game. I'm definitely taking a break after this game. >_>

I'm still undecided as to who to vote. Serp I still think edges out in scumminess but sweet Kanako has UK done some damage to Town with her useless WoTs and her habit of screaming bloody murder at anyone she disagrees with. -_-

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: What about the 'being overly certain' segment? Did you just quote that for no reason or did you agree that you are far too tunnel-visioned?

[UncertainJakutten]

Being overly certain is a trait of mine. I meant the "bad scumtells part"

And if you haven't noticed, I THINK YOU ARE TOWN

But dear GOD are you frustrating town.

What I'd like to ask is how my WoTs are useless. Failure to commit to reading a game on your part does not constitute an emergency on mine. I'll admit that my...rather hostile attacks when I home in on someone as scum are not necessary and I'll try to reduce them in the future.

But, yeah, I'm stlll, somehow, convinced you are town, despite the fact you continually throw out misrep after misrep and stupid idea after stupid idea. And obviously can't read the game.

[Edible]

All players: Please reduce the levels of needless antagonism.  Thank you.

The challenge is UncertainKitten vs. Serpentarius.  No one has yet voted.

[UncertainJakutten]

Ah, sorry

##Vote: UncertainKitten

[El Cideon]

Serp's speculation on setup and ways to break the game sometimes meander into strategies which aren't very town friendly, and a lot of the other theorizing fills space without really helping us much. On reflection this is mostly what I associate him with, which is problematic.

UK badly needs to take a chill pill (this is where I acknowledge that recent posts are calmer, yes; there's just a lot of record before that change took place) but this doesn't necessarily equal scumminess. More comfortable siding against Serp here. Scum hiding in plain sight while trying to make a show of contribution or scum needlessly attracting attention by antagonizing everyone? Yeah, I find the former much more believable. Open to arguments but don't see the harm in voting right now.

##Vote: UncertainKitten

[El Cideon]

Also, what the heck does EBWOP mean.

[Jam-Kiske]

Important things such as sleep, classes, and homework take up my time.

Anyway, this challenge seems decent enough based on the conditions for this day.

I'm going to ##Vote UncertainKitten as despite the fact that she likes to antagonize people is somewhat irritating, it's not really scummy when she actually does scumhunt in a fair amount of her posts.

Serp really hasn't done much but discredit another idea at a strategy and tried to pitch his own, which as has been established isn't exactly what we should be doing as the point of this game is obviously to scumhunt and figure out challenges NOW rather than figure out how to go about the rest of the game.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Also, what the heck does EBWOP mean.

Edit By Way Of Post.

[UncertainJakutten]

So, of note is STILL people are not at all answering the question posed here about that on Kiro post.

It's a simple question. I promise not to bite your head off if you don't agree. I just want to get a feeling for where people stand here.

[El Cideon]

Honestly looks fine to me, UK. Might help if you could clarify your problem with the post.

[Kefit]

##Vote: UncertainKitten

My stance on Serp's scumhood can be found here. I don't feel a need to reiterate the argument. While I don't like either player involved in this duel, I dislike Serp far more.

Alice:  I don't see how I could be clearer there?  Anyone stepping in and opportunistically offering to take a head is quite scummy, because, uh, that's how the scum would best get heads.  A random pairing on the other hand is not too bad for town since we lynch the scummier player and then in future days take out the people who were supposed to challenge and didn't - in a manner of town's choosing. 

This reasoning concerns me. A random duel on day one was favorable for the town because of two specific circumstances that existed at that time:

1) A lack of concrete information to form the basis of scum hunting.
2) A high number of players to minimize the harm of a town vs town duel.

The first circumstance is certainly not the case anymore - we have four alignment flips and more than 500 posts to work with in our scum hunt. The second circumstance is probably still extant due to two successful scum kills, but I do not think that it warrants random dueling standing alone.

We now have information, and we need to use it. Pitching our fate to the RNG will only bring us closer to the day one no information baseline, and I don't see why we would want that. While I recognize the problems associated with selecting a player to duel, these problems are not insurmountable. A prospective duelist need only be nominated, have a case presented for why he or she should duel, and then recieve the blessing of the town. If it worked when I did it, then it will work for someone else.

[Chaore]

So, of note is STILL people are not at all answering the question posed here about that one Kiro post.

Not done getting my ass straight in gear, but I have looked over that post.

Only thing I have to ponder about is Ciato Vote to clear Bard, and the K4U power analysis. Rest seems to make sense to me. Check it again in context, though.

[UncertainJakutten]

Honestly looks fine to me, UK. Might help if you could clarify your problem with the post.

I do say it feels like he's trying to give opinions without actually giving them. I'll give it a second look to see if I can elaborate.

Hmm...I think it bugs me because it's mostly set up speculation while naming players. Not NECESSARILY scummy since the players were involved, but I guess I look at player names and expect an analysis of their actions, not their roles/set up opinions. Though that latter is kinda action in and of itself. And then we do get a fairly decent analysis in the portion on me.

I can't really scan anything in particular that feels bad about that post. I want to chalk this up to just remnants of confirmation bias but I still get a bad vibe from the post even though it reads as if it should be good.

I still want opinions on that post, but mostly disregard me taking that post as a point against him. I think for now I'll drop the Kiro case since I quite honestly can't explain it, and I'm just as bad as some of the people I accuse if I keep saying "This feels bad. No, I can't tell you why. Kiro just sucks >=["

Cuts:

Only thing I have to ponder about is Ciato Vote to clear Bard, and the K4U power analysis. Rest seems to make sense to me. Check it again in context, though.

The K4U power analysis is sound, even if it's a bit more set up speculatey. I wish he had posted opinions on her as a person to try to put her role into perspective. As for the Ciato/Bard clear, not sure what to make of that.

Let me check something before I make another post.

[Ranmilia]

Yes, Kefit & others, that is all true.  I was arguing only against what Rou did - step up close to deadline and say "Okay I'm going to challenge just to get a challenge in" if the people town actually wanted to challenge each other refused to do so.  This would be Rou helping himself to a head without town consent that he should be the one to take it, as town would be forced to choose between Rou or the player we actually wanted dead.  A town chosen duel is of course preferable to a random duel, but I still find a random duel preferable to a duel where town has only approved of one side.  I sure wouldn't have been comfortable with Rou taking a head today, and I don't recall anyone else wanting him to do so, so him stepping in and pitting himself against someone town wanted dead would be a very dangerous lose-lose situation.

Anyhow. 

UK - The concept of Mafia is all about communication, and following that, the onus is in fact on you as a player to make yourself and your views as understandable as possible, not on the other players to have to figure out what you've said.  Yes, the other players have a responsibility to read the game, but it's a mutual thing, this certainly doesn't give you free license to post whatever you want and complain when not everyone else adheres to your views on what exactly "the game" entails.  Expecting anyone to read huge walls with no summaries, or to trace giant multipage multipost self-referential conversations that turn into tiger stripes of back and forth quotes, is quite unreasonable. 

It's also poor play, since your opinions will not often be listened to over those of players who can communicate more effectively; saying "if you don't like the way I post deal with it!" is an invitation for everyone else to go "uh okay" and lynch you regardless of your alignment.  It is also scummy play, as increasing confusion and poor communication benefits scum over town as a general rule.  I have won multiple games as scum by employing a wall of text obfuscation strategy and have seen other scum teams win in this way quite often.  Please keep these things in mind for the future.

That all said, UK's recent attitude changes and increased clarity are definitely cementing her over Serp for me, so.

##Vote: UK

As regards the Kiro post, when I said earlier that I've become wary of Kiro, it was mainly that post that I was looking at.  I agree that the tone is generally off and that's one of the reasons he's gone from townie to neutral in my eyes.

[UncertainJakutten]

Still bugs me. Let me continue checking but...as far as I know, Chaore has never voted on a challenge before the result was clear.

This does not bode well IMO. He's always found some way to waffle before the match was effectively decided.

these two posts speak for themselves on Pesco vs. Bardiche.

And this, plus the last two votes for Bard being Kiro and Pesco, confirms Chaore never backed up a stance on D1. Oh, he even POSTS after Kiro's vote.

Allow me to see if the trend continues.

Cha is definitely posting throughout D2, yet even at this point, he hasn't voted.

He does finally hammer. but it doesn't really give him any credit. D2 wasn't exactly an opinionated day, so we'll give him the BotD. Let's see if he actually does anything risky on D3.

He does, actually. But not risky as in being a swing vote. He "accidentally hammers" Kefit to live. I'm not sure I like this. On the one hand, it was his first post after the challenge. Town was obviously going to kill Ciato. On the other hand, he conveniently cut discussion short, and given his lack of substantial votes on D1 and D2, I can't think this was just a mistake. And now we come to today, where he still hasn't voted yet, and we have a sufficiently debatable challenge.

CHAORE! I WANT YOU TO CHOOSE BETWEEN ME AND SERPENTARIUS IN YOUR NEXT POST. NO MORE SNEAKING OUT OF IT!

As an aside, I think this bolsters my case on him.

Cuts:

As regards the Kiro post, when I said earlier that I've become wary of Kiro, it was mainly that post that I was looking at.  I agree that the tone is generally off and that's one of the reasons he's gone from townie to neutral in my eyes.

I'm glad I'm not as crazy as I thought. I'm still not sure what to do with it though.

The following is not amazingly game relevant, so feel free to skip if you'd like:
As for the advice about communication, I swear I'm not this bad usually! Something about large games and short deadlines screws up my play pretty terribly. I do actually play a decent game, though I'm not a particularly effective scumhunter (working on that. Admittedly, I didn't really use the things I learned this game like I should have. Old habits die hard). I guess part of it is longer games let me step back so I can calm down and think

[Ranmilia]

I'm not really sure that forms an effective case on Chaore.  The day 2 and 3 challenges were foregone conclusions from the instant they were issued, in fact people voted too quickly on day 3, and day 1 was arguably similar in that the quickchallenger was never going to win.  So the only case there is Chao not having much of a stance on day 1... which is also very negatable by the fact that it's day 1, and quite possibly town vs town.

The "accidental" hammer to day 3 cutting discussion short IS a valid point against him, though again not something I'd consider really major.

[UncertainJakutten]

Correction, Alex. D1 was not a forgone conclusion. Pesco had a LOT of support and could have brought it off had he acted a little more pro town after his challenge. The fact that Chaore spent so long not voting on D2 bothers me, but I cannot come up with an adequate explanation for why flip flopping on that is necessarily scummy since both sides would cause a scum win and Chaore would know that. However, the D3 accidental hammer is definitely a point against him, and I will maintain my point about the D1 challenge as well. Not voting during that challenge feels very scummy, since it gives him room to play for framing the survivor (if town v. town) if Chaore is to flip. And if you read Chaore's posts you can tell he assumes he's not making it to endgame and is liable to die rather quickly, even before he decided to go all out suicidal. If Bard is scum, Chaore could be trying to distance from him. So, I don't think Bard's flip would give us any information on Chaore based on D1 behavior.

[Edible]

UncertainKitten vs. Serpentarius status update

UncertainKitten (5) - UncertainKitten, Cid, Jam, Kefit, Alex
Serpentarius (0) - :V

12 alive, 7 votes to win.

[Serp]

There's nothing more to say in my own defense.  Since last night, I was certain that I wasn't going to make it through LyLo, and even a cop result on me from Cid would have too much doubt about a framer or whatever, so I just need to make sure that my head isn't claimed by scum, and to get enough information out there for town to use.  I'd rather have gone down to Cid to charge his ability, but I consider UK likely town enough to be alright with this sequence of events.

More willing to consider now that Kiro is just town whose mind has been numbed by the weird setup.  His failure to comprehend my play advice (see: my repeated insistence that claiming scum heads doesn't make one ineligible to win another fight) doesn't look like scum intentionally playing dumb, so he could be scum or town legitimately confused.  Still, don't use him as a champion.  His reasoning so far has been pretty bad, as you'll see upon my flip, and bad reasoning is never a towntell.

Kefit's latest sudden vicious assault doesn't look like sincere town to me.  My eyes started to glaze over all the vitriol, so I hope you'll forgive me if I don't respond point-by-point  His original offending paragraph again, for the record:

If my analysis is correct, then in the worst case scenarios I am scum, Alex is scum, Bard is scum, and Tom is scum (and dead). None of us will ever win a challenge again. Yet only three heads will have been claimed (Pesco, Kilga, and Ciato). Thus, barring unknown roles and powers, the scum would only be able to win if either you let one person win multiple duels after this point, or there are more then five scum.

If scum survive past LyLo, then each living one claims another head as all the townies die.  Pretty simple principle.  That he's trying to pretend that this never happened means that he's either scum or just really vain town.  Don't let him survive through LyLo, regardless.

Early scum deaths are gambits by scum, most of the time.  Tom had to know that the town's attention would immediatley be focused on Alex and Ciato after his death.  Two scum dead for one head claimed isn't an exchange scum are going to make.  It was basically inevitable that Tom and then Ciato would die, leaving Alex as the beneficiary.  "But scum wouldn't use two scum when they only need one to claim a head" is WIFOM.  Don't let Alex survive to LyLo.

Bardiche shouldn't have been able to survive this long unless he had some scumbuddies watching out for him.  When I'm gone, you'll have three dead townies (Pesco, Kilga, myself) with Bardiche among their top picks.  Have Cid kill him immediately.

Chaore's crazy behavior right now seems to be in his meta as scum.  Certainly too erratic to keep around.  Wouldn't mind feeding him to Cid either.  UK's switch from him to me today also makes me think that maybe she was hard bussing as always, but saw a chance to actually claim a head while still getting towncred after Chaore's inevitable flip.  If Chaore flips scum, take a closer look at Kitten.

Everyone else I have a town read on to one degree or another, which shouldn't matter because you shouldn't be putting your trust in champions in the first place.

For dealing with Cid, I'd recommend letting him test his ability.  Let him have two kills.  No more, in case he's scum.  No less, because with two cop results, the odds are much better that at least one of the people he picks to investigate is town.  If his investigation finds scum, that's awesome.  If it appears to find town, don't just have that townie steamroll everyone.  Just let that townie survive to LyLo.  Kill him after he gets two results to confirm that he's town, as only scum would be lying about this.

I recommend getting Cid his two kills immediately after my death, then killing him on the third day.  Recommended kill sequence is something like Bard>Alex>Cid>Chaore>Kefit>Kiro.  Don't trust Cid enough to let him pick who he kills.  Playstyle and reasoning so far have looked very pro-town, but two kills is a lot of trust.  If he refuses to go after someone the town agrees upon, then they're probably both scum.

One more thing:  Alex tried to say that today's Hime Star condition was a message directly from Carthrat, telling us that we should abandon my strategy.  But the writeup said that the Hime Star was "bloated and foul."  Seems more likely that scum directly impose the Hime Star conditions.  Scum are afraid that the town will follow my strategy.  They set things up so I was most likely to die today.  Keep that in mind.

I think that hits everything I wanted to touch on.  I expect that these picks will be buried as quickly as Kilga's (Tom Alex Bard Chaore +1) were, but maybe the town will spontaneously learn that listening to confirmed townies' opinions is a good thing.  Anyone else have any questions before I die?

[UncertainJakutten]

Chaore's crazy behavior right now seems to be in his meta as scum.  Certainly too erratic to keep around.  Wouldn't mind feeding him to Cid either.  UK's switch from him to me today also makes me think that maybe she was hard bussing as always, but saw a chance to actually claim a head while still getting towncred after Chaore's inevitable flip.  If Chaore flips scum, take a closer look at Kitten.

I'll be honest. I fully intended to challenge Chaore, but I hit a point where I was indirectly defending you, and would likely have been killed, giving scum a head since I don't think Chaore is town. I actually was hoping not to survive this challenge with you, but that didn't exactly pan out. Fortunately, you ARE enough potentially scum so I don't feel too bad about you dying. But yes, I'm more doubtful of you scum as opposed to Chaore scum.

One issue I have with your assessment, which is kinda counterproductive to my arguments. Chaore has played one game. You can't easily derive a meta from one game. Perhaps he just sucks as both town and scum.

Well, I do agree with Bard scum, and Chaore scum...I don't really see Alex scum...Kefit scum seems more outside possibility for me. I find his actions regarding Ciato a null tell, but he seems to be more actively scumhunting as compared to earlier.

At any rate, you think Chaore is scum, and that I'm probably scum with him if he is, but you find me town. Is this supposed to be a contradiction?

[Serp]

At any rate, you think Chaore is scum, and that I'm probably scum with him if he is, but you find me town. Is this supposed to be a contradiction?

Notice that I've got five likely scum picks.  There are no more than three scum left to catch.  I'm about 70% on Bardiche scum, 30% on Kiro scum, and in between on the others, if I had to give numbers to it.  Chaore's right in the middle, but he's hazardous and distracting enough to the town whatever his alignment that it's hard to say how much of that is scumminess and how much of that is just a desire to get him out of the way.  In any case, even if he's scum, that would just put you first among the people I haven't mentioned in scumminess, as I see it.  A percentage times a percentage is a smaller percentage.