~Beyond the Border~ > Mystia's Stored Games
Yume Nikki Mafia - Over
?q:
I've finished my preliminary analysis; quit whining.
Points of interest.
1. Rou 56 and on. I shudder to envision the day that Rou and Pesco are on the same scumteam, but I'm pretty sure this isn't it. I don't think I've seen scum fight relentlessly with each other without stopping (Kilga and UK went for a page before swapping out).
2. Serpentarius 98, in which he refuses to touch this the Rou vs. Pesco deal that is taking over the thread and but doesn't tell them to stop. Go ahead! Make a scene that will draw everyone in!
Caveat: Pesco DID flip notTown. This would be more damning if the argument was Town vs. Town.
To save space, I really don't like the stance he took on Rou vs. Pesco - namely that they're both suspicious, but not one more than the other and it's someone else's job to find something he can pile onto if they thought enough of it.
3. Zakeri 108.
--- Quote ---Personally, on the self vote, I've learned from previous, recent games that nothing screwed the town over faster than self voting. Oddly enough, we can't seem to go a single game without someone self voting. At this point, there are only two things I see being true: Beilos is Scum trying to WiFoM the town into not voting for him, or Beilos is trying to pull off a fongs gambit, in which he deserves to be voted for anyway.
##Unvote, ##Vote: BaliySM
--- End quote ---
Even for Early Day OneTM, this is weak. It's basically a policy vote.
4. Edible 113. It looks basically like something I would post on a bad day. The important part right now is the comment that Pesco and Rou are both scum, which I certainly haven't been getting from reading the thread. There's that, and in explaining the other options he neglects to mention that one could be Town and one could be not (which I believe is the case, though I have hindsight helping me here).
6. Alice Margatroid 121.
--- Quote ---Europe's horrible affront to music
--- End quote ---
But I like The Final Countdown. Well, not the music video so much, but you get the idea :P
7. Alice Margatroid 123. I like this post very much, but I don't understand the Serp-Town read on this first readthrough, and since it's from an intuitive decision, I'm going to have to ask for a new opinion.
8. Affinity 125. Redacted.
9. Zakeri 126.
--- Quote ---I'll admit, I wasn't there until after Pesco was lynched, but It seems more than a few people are disputing the idea that Pesco has changed.
In any case, thanks to multi-track lynching, I have nothing against the votes on Pesco.
--- End quote ---
It's a backtrack, but I'm not sure what alignment to place this under.
10. Carthrat 133.
--- Quote ---Anyone making statements to the effect of 'xyz is clearly town' has themselves clearly not played any game at all, ever, where scum has won.
--- End quote ---
I disagree.
11. Serpentarius 134.
--- Quote ---I don't think it's far-fetched. If we find a reasonably plausible scenario that links two or three players as scum, I say we try to lynch them all. Going after several unrelated suspected scum gives us the advantage that we clean up several leads at once, but going after a group of apparently coherent scum makes it a lot harder for any of them to escape a lynching, in case our suspicions are correct. I favor the latter.
--- End quote ---
No, this is a terrible strategy. It's a way to chain an entire segment of the game into lynches based on a premises that are unsubstantiated at best (D1).
12. Serpentarius 138.
--- Quote ---Uh, damn. Do I really need to respond to this? You really aren't helping your case, Baity. Even aside from the fact that looking too scummy to lynch is a stupid tactic from a selfish perspective, you also end up screwing with the town and forcing them to spend half a day trying to figure out what the hell you're trying to do. If you're actually town, you've basically made a gigantic diversion of yourself for the scum to hide behind.
--- End quote ---
This bothers me, most notably the preface. In complaining that people are going to pile on to BaitySM-Town, Serpentarius... does just that. The last sentence is pretty funny too, considering Pesco did just that in the next post.
13. Serpentarius Cream147.
--- Quote ---Your scumhunting is your own business, especially this early in the game.
--- End quote ---
Does this read to anyone like a fancy way of saying "Lay off"?
--- Quote ---Now I'm pressing Kanguya.
--- End quote ---
Wait, you don't mean this.
--- Quote from: Serpentarius 134 ---As for who else looks scummy right now, I'm tired of Kanguya Yaraisan humping my leg. Only the scum know who's definitely townie, and objectively speaking, I don't see how I've done anything to warrant that kind of trust.
--- End quote ---
Two lines of explanation counts as pressing...? Compared to your walls o' text in defense, this is pretty obviously lackluster.
Incidentally, Zakeri said basically the same thing, albeit without the excessive praise.
--- Quote from: Zakeri 108 ---Serp - pro-town
I'm seeing quite a bit of determined scum hunting. as long as this keeps up, Serp is cleared for me.
--- End quote ---
--- Quote from: Zakeri 126 ---What has Serp done that you would feel has been wrong?
--- End quote ---
Yet you said he was fine.
14. Roukanken 148.
--- Quote ---You don't have a reason to suspect [Pesco], but you don't have a reason to trust him. Whatever happened to Innocent Until Proven Guilty, ye of the Shikieiki avatar?
--- End quote ---
I'm pretty sure Innocent Until Proven Guilty doesn't apply in Mafia. At all.
15. Serpentarius 167. (This is hopefully not a tunnel.)
--- Quote ---I'm not feeling so generous towards Mr_Alert. His last post was 22 hours ago, was lacking in content, and was only made due to Roukanken's prodding. He still has his random vote from the beginning of the game on me. Am I the only one who thinks this is a bad thing?
My top three preferred lynches right now are as follow: BaitySM, Kanguya Yaraisan, Mr_Alert. Incidentally, since we all seem to agree that anything more than a triple lynch is certainly a bad idea, this doesn't leave any room for poor Pesco47. Roukanken, if you're still convinced that Pesco47 is worse than the guy who still has his random vote from the beginning of the game, the guy who was humping my leg on horrible reasoning 'till just recently, and freakin' BaitySM, I think we may have reached the point where I'll actively discourage your tunneling. We need to settle on our lynches soon.
--- End quote ---
The hindsight is killing me, especially the deflection to an inactive. Inactivity != lurking, and inactive players - especially of the Mr. Alert variety - need to be replaced.
I completely overlooked the possibility of Mr. Alert being scum. Even so, Mr. Alert was probably the most bussable Mafioso out there so yeah :v
16. Zakeri 170.
--- Quote ---I don't see why the main point against Serp (not getting involved with Rou and Pesco's arguement) makes him scum rather than lazy town - and that's ignoring his prods of Beilos and Affinity.
--- End quote ---
Is Zakeri trying to tie himself to Serpentarius? This is something like the third time Zakeri has made an obvious call of innocent on Serpentarius.
--- Quote ---UK's case on Gensokyo Blender is really nice, but it's worrisome because it contains mostly "KY is acting like KY Always does, and that's no good." I'm not a big fan of clearing people just because it's their meta to play badly (for whatever reason), but at the same time, there really isn't an actual scumtell to work with in the whole case. I'm alright with the lynch, but I wouldn't vote for it.
--- End quote ---
I thought when this was posted that UK pulled out the meta attack here, but evidently not. I'm not really sure what to make of this considering KY flipped Town.
17. Serpentarius 173.
--- Quote ---Zakeri, KY has some convincing scumtells against him. His following of a popular townie at the time, myself, looks pretty bad. It's an instinct for newbie scum to attach themselves to a townie, loudly proclaiming "This person is definitely town," 'cause of course the scum know who's town and who's not. You shouldn't need me to tell you this.
--- End quote ---
The paternalistic tone here reminds me somewhat of me-scum playing with Juls-scum.
18. Alice Margatroid 178.
--- Quote ---And now it's time for my least-favourite activity in the world: trying to figure out which of you are scum, and which of you are merely scummy townies. I really wish I had an unlimited dayvig right about now.
@Whoever: I'm not exactly giving BaitySM a free pass. Just that his behaviour is perplexing enough that it wouldn't necessarily warrant an immediate lynch. However, due to today, I am perfectly comfortable with, and even endorse the BaitySM lynch, especially after his horrible post of "I'm going to be a distraction to Town in order to not get lynched yay!".
--- End quote ---
Are you my alt? Seriously.
--- Quote ---Basically at this point I want BaitySM to be lynched.
--- End quote ---
wait what
--- Quote ---So yeah, I'm fine with Mr_Alert as a third lynch if he won't even show up to unvote Serpentarius or at least justify his vote on him beyond reasons only sufficient to justify a random vote.
--- End quote ---
See what I said to Serpentarius.
19. Rou 180. Suddenly, Serpentarius! Agreeing with me is pro-Town Azn
20. Zakeri 183.
--- Quote ---Okay, this has been bugging me for a bit, and I think Rou's post points out why. Do you believe targeting someone who is inactive day one is more important enough to try and measure everyone's vote so we can get an extra lynch for it? I'm all for Alert hate, but I think this is wavering into "Free Mislynch" territory.
--- End quote ---
Right! Morally right! But... um... now that Mr. Peroxide has flipped scum, I don't know what to make of this.
21. Edible 188, which basically uses many words to say:
--- Quote ---Baity. Claim.
Pesco. Die.
Rou's probably not with Pesco.
More at 11.
--- End quote ---
Since he advocated Pesco's lynch, I'm not sure what this is.
22. Affinity 194. Redacted.
23. Edible 219.
--- Quote ---You guys are awfully quick to jump on me, given there are much better targets for inactivity this game. :V I wonder who started that trend.
--- End quote ---
This looks REALLY bad ("Don't lynch me; there are worse noncontributors out there!"). I can see why you were considered a wanted lynch yesterday.
Also, lol at Rou's response in 221.
24. Zakeri 230.
--- Quote ---Also, Pesco is town. Mark my words. I'm still doing analysis, but a surprising amount of my analysis is how Roukanken is using craplogic to get Pesco angry at him. Alice's vote is also very suspicious because of it.
--- End quote ---
Oh, THIS is what everyone was talking about yesterday.
Of the walls that followed based on this - that speaking frankly I didn't read - the concise conclusion is that Zakeri greatly overstated Pesco's Towniness and (to steal Edible's words) took a great risk in doing so. As to whether Zakeri was actually trying to dive in front of the guillotine for Pesco, I think that would be best answered by comparing it to what he was doing for Serpentarius (see bottom).
25. Alice Margatroid 256.
--- Quote ---You guys post too much walls and bullshit and not enough content. Half of the arguing today has been about scumhunting playstyle and a pointless player vs. player spat, which ultimately does nothing to actually help find scum.
--- End quote ---
You ARE my alt.
Bluntly put, I'm fast-forwarding through everything that looks like a wallpost at this point.
26. Serpentarius 274. Reading that tl;dr down at the bottom, I feel somehow less informed than when I started reading it. It's made of cotton candy; little content, much hot air.
27. End of D2 vote analysis.
S. Peroxide - A. Margatroid
Edible - Carthrat
Affinity - Serpentarius
Affinity - Roukanken
unvote -> S. Peroxide - Edible
Zakeri - S. Peroxide
S. Peroxide - Carthrat
S. Peroxide - Serpentarius
S. Peroxide - Me!
The people who are most likely to not be scum bussing their partners in this case are Edible and A. Margatroid. After Edible's vote, the S. Peroxide lynch was basically decided, and based on the vote record no Town points go out to the latecomers.
-----
~~
-----
Thus.
I don't have anything against Alice Margatroid.
I have little against Roukanken, mostly because I can't envision him bussing Pesco like he did.
Edible is Townish mostly for the wagon on S. Peroxide-scum yesterday.
Zakeri... is ambivalently Town and scum at the same time. I'm assuming that since the "worlds" are randomly determined (and thus we didn't HAVE to get the guillotine room D1), there are not four scum in this game. If there were, I would absolutely pin Serpentarius/Zakeri as the remaining scumpair. Now... I'm not sure.
I didn't get much from Carthrat up to this point, but the stances he took during D2 disagreed with both my opinions (obvscumtell) and the flips. Further reading required.
All signs point to Serpentarius being scum. Let's end this.
##Vote: Serpentarius (L-4)
?q:
EBWOP: That should be (L-3).
Nietz:
Vote count:
u? (1): Zakeri
Roukanken (1): Carthrat
Serpentarius (1): u?
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Not voting: Edible, Roukanken, Alice, Serpentarius
58.5 hours remaining.
--- Quote from: Zakeri Izayoi on May 24, 2009, 05:54:27 AM ---Vote: Umu
--- End quote ---
Next time remember to put the ## or I might not count your vote.
Serp:
Alright, going to address the points against me first.
Regarding my stances on the two scum we've lynched, it's true that I wasn't convinced by the case on either. I saw Pesco as a terciary lynch, only a good choice since we had three lynches to distribute. I thought that Affinity's claim was as fake and scummy as a claim can be, and only helped the SP lynch because I wanted to eliminate him as a distraction from going after Affinity the next day. I know I don't get many Townie points for either stance, but I think my logic has been consistent.
--- Quote from: Roukanken ---Using me as his defense doesn't look good.
--- End quote ---
Keep in mind that I was being asked about my stance of Pesco v. Roukanken, again, and you had showed up and repeated the points I had given you in my defense there. Combine that with the fact that it was the limited post length dream, and the fact that Affinity had just roleclaimed and things were a bit frantic, and I think I was justified in taking a short cut.
--- Quote from: Carthrat ---As for Serp, I'll acknowledge that yeah, he could have just felt obliged to make sure a lynch happens. But being on Affinity late after trackerclaim is bad enough (particularly after I pointed out the silliness of lynching him). I'm not sure if he just wasn't around offhand. In any case some insight from him into his lateday actions would be appreciated.
--- End quote ---
I thought his claim was fake, and I'm not going to just concede to a mislynch just 'cause my top suspect has made a bad roleclaim. I don't agree with your reasoning here about how the rewards justify the risk. A mislynch isn't a small thing. As it turns out, I was the one pushing the mislynch, but you yourself agreed with me about how bad Affinity's claim looked.
--- Quote from: u? ---To save space, I really don't like the stance he took on Rou vs. Pesco - namely that they're both suspicious, but not one more than the other and it's someone else's job to find something he can pile onto if they thought enough of it.
--- End quote ---
That's my outlook and strategy. I think I've defended it well enough.
--- Quote from: u? ---This bothers me, most notably the preface. In complaining that people are going to pile on to BaitySM-Town, Serpentarius... does just that. The last sentence is pretty funny too, considering Pesco did just that in the next post.
--- End quote ---
Well, yes, I acknowledged that people would pile onto BaitySM, Town or Scum. I said it bothered me, because whatever his affiliation, we wouldn't be able to get a lot of information from such an obvious vote. That doesn't mean I thought that piling onto him was unjustified.
--- Quote from: u? ---Does this read to anyone like a fancy way of saying "Lay off"?
--- End quote ---
Considering that I was being asked to stop Roukanken from scumhunting at the time (and that, as it happens, his target was scum after all), I think I was justified.
--- Quote from: u? ---Two lines of explanation counts as pressing...? Compared to your walls o' text in defense, this is pretty obviously lackluster.
Incidentally, Zakeri said basically the same thing, albeit without the excessive praise.
--- End quote ---
As I pointed out here, Kanguya wasn't giving me a whole lot to press. I also explicitly stated your point regarding Zakeri here, in that post you called fluffy and useless.
Now, analysis after SP's flip. Since SP was Mr Alert on Day 1, and Mr Alert was indeed probably the easiest scum to bus ever, we can't get a whole lot more from Day 1 analysis. Late Day 2 looks the most interesting to me.
Alice and Edible are Town as Town can be for spearheading the SP lynch, as has been said. SP was trying to push for a Zakeri in his last moments, which is a point in his favor. Roukanken went to sleep an hour and a half before the deadline, and put his vote on Affinity... but I can't really blame him for that. The SP lynch was a last-minute invention. Not quite sure how to read Carthrat being so anti-Edible. I guess I'm inclined to give him Town credit for going along with the SP lynch, though. If he had been adamantly pro-SP and anti-Affinity instead of the other way around, we'd have probably lynched Affinity instead.
That leaves umu. With his late entry, he didn't have much of a chance to give input. In Reply 460 he says that Affinity looks bad, but he doesn't want to vote against him. Says in 467 that an Affinity lynch is inevitable, no need to fight it. Distances himself from SP in 471, but puts forward Zakeri as a better lynch. Finally drops the hammer on SP when it's clear that no other lynch will happen. Essentially, he manages to point the finger of suspicion at all three without committing himself, and only acts when absolutely necessary.
Now, looking at the full analysis we've finally got from him, I'm not liking a lot of what I see.
--- Quote from: u? ---All signs point to Serpentarius being scum. Let's end this.
--- End quote ---
This is what bugs me. No, I don't mean the fact that he's voting against me (though I suppose don't like that either). I mean the fact that through the whole post, he mentions how scummy everyone is, and then says "In conclusion, Serpentarius is obvscum." It looks to me like he wants to give the impression that I'm the only possible lynch, while still having statements out there about how everyone else is scummy so that when I flip Town, he can say "Well, with Serpentarius cleared, we can move onto my other suspects."
u? himself is leading my scum chart. Carthrat isn't quite clear, but he's been giving me a strong Town impression. Early on, my biggest complaint against him was that he was halfassedly tunneling me, but now his scumhunting is at least acting townie, and his position on SP gives him some hard townie credit. Zakeri hasn't cleared himself on either lynch, but as has already been said, his fumbling on Pesco is too weird to be a scumtell, and his attempts on Day 2 look pretty solid. So, u? gets my vote.
##Vote u? (L-2)
Nietz:
Vote count:
u? (2): Zakeri, Serpentarius
Roukanken (1): Carthrat
Serpentarius (1): u?
Not voting: Edible, Roukanken, Alice
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
u? is at L-2
51 hours remaining.