Lots of new posts to analyze, but getting my combined thoughts on the early game out there first since we don't have much time. Skip if you don't want the information and just want the analysis:
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Alright, analyzing Roukanken's initial accusation of Pesco,
here. Pesco provokes BaitySM into making scummy nonsense posts, and Roukanken votes him for it. You all know what I say about early votes. Neither the accusation nor the move that provoked it is scummy, in my opinion.
Roukanken discusses optimal lynching numbers with Carthrat, yet manages to avoid WoT-syndrome,
here. I
think he misinterprets Pesco's "I'm sure he knew what he was getting into" as a statement about the self-voting, as opposed to joining a Mafia game in general, though Pesco oddly doesn't clarify very well.
Kanguya does setup speculation and manages not to say anything new
here.
Affinity attempts to make sense of Baity's bizarreness
here. I make my prod of Affinity
here, and then Pesco and I discussed it immediatley after. Pesco is posting a lot, and actually addresses Roukanken's points, albeit kind of abrasively.
Kiro helpfully points out that Baity's WIFOM sucks. Affinity continues to explain why BaitySM's behavior is both scummy and incomprehensible.
Kanguya shows up for an incredibly unhelpful post
here. Gets called out by Pesco and starts humping my leg, following my Affinity vote while seeming to miss that I considered Affinity a scum only if Baity was too.
Pesco makes an alright defense post
here, responding to all the points against him, though not really as directly as I'd like. Also tells KY to do better.
UK then posts a series of half-sentence paragraphs. Ugh.
Roukanken starts pressing Pesco pretty hard
here, then calls everyone else out to make some comments. I lay down the foundation for 48 hours of defending myself
here. Pesco then starts being inflammatory, but also asks me for clarification regarding my standing aside, gets the response I've been giving you all since then, and accepts it.
Zakeri gives me a vague pass
here. Manages to mix it in with valid points regarding other stuff. Starts taking his stance against Roukanken here. KY follows it a few posts later by managing to say the same stuff less usefully.
Alice finally shows up
here and notably goes Pro-BaitySM, Pro-Roukanken, anti-Pesco. Points out that my case on Affinity is weak, followed by Affinity showing up and making some good points and pushing Pesco to stop baiting Roukanken and start scumhunting. Affinity manages to beat me to voting Kanguya, which I was intending to do even before I saw his post.
Kiro analyzes PvR
here and goes so far as to vote against Roukanken. Pesco shows up immediately after and pointedly ignores Roukanken while responding to everyone else.
Carthrat shows up and makes a case against me
here. I manage to get in and switch my vote to KY, and then respond to Carthrat's accusation. Carth gives an absolutely lackluster response, but keeps his vote there. Lots and lots of analysis by Roukanken
here, defending his actions pretty well and pointing out some suspicious moves. He and I start to go off on our takeover of the thread.
KY shows up
here and digs himself a hole.
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Alright, those are the first five pages. Early game analysis: In retrospect, I see Zakeri as showing the same scumtells Kanguya does, but being more eloquent about it, which is interesting since he needed to have the fact that that
is a scumtell pointed out by me later.
Lack of participation by Edible. I don't like UK's style either. Carthrat put a vote on me and then just let it sit there without talking about it. He's not done much but speculate on the setup and cheerlead whoever voices suspicion of me. Affinity and Kiro didn't make many posts, but made some good points. Nothing overtly suspicious from Roukanken and Pesco in the early game. Mr Alert: bleh. BaitySM: megableh. His more recent posts muddle things. Kanguya: my opinion is unchanged. Almost forgot to put Alice on this list. I find his criticism of walls of text amusing.
At the moment I'm
still favoring BaitySM and Kanguya for a lynch (after reading his roleclaim: I think Baity is either full of it, or really really deserves to get lynched anyway), though Pesco's continued absence and the way he stopped defending himself after Roukanken and I started going at it doesn't speak in his favor. I guess I'm feeling that Pesco is getting more scummy every minute he doesn't show up. The triple lynch mentioned in the most recent count probably isn't going to go through, but if Pesco doesn't show up, it'd be nice if it would.
