Author Topic: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over  (Read 98640 times)

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #840 on: April 25, 2015, 05:57:21 PM »
Doesn't phase end in 7 hours?

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #841 on: April 25, 2015, 05:58:15 PM »
No, Elieson is in the right here, my bad.  Closer to 9 and a half hours, though.

Sky_Paladin

  • Caution is advised.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #842 on: April 25, 2015, 06:01:46 PM »
OK great.  I can sleep on it.  I'm up in four hours, then I'll get a window to check the thread while I'm on the train, about six hours out from now. 
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Sky_Paladin

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #843 on: April 25, 2015, 06:08:25 PM »
I will wait ten minutes for any last minute questions but then I gotta go.
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Sky_Paladin

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #844 on: April 25, 2015, 06:19:07 PM »
zzzdarknessszzzz
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Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #845 on: April 25, 2015, 08:30:48 PM »
Sorry about the late response, my stomach chose pretty much the worst time to rebel.  I (literally) feel your pain, Elieson.

The main thing that changed was I had been scum reading Eli/Serela as buddies, or somethign was going on there.  I was so sure.  I can't explain to you how confident i was that Serela was scum.  I thought - and still do!- that I had caught her lying about her rvs vote.  But on day 5 it was obvious Serela was town and on day 6 I have to at least consider that Refa is scum, and that means Eli has a chance of being town.  I'd probably been conf-bias reading her up until then, almost certainly because she was attacking me all game.  So I went to reread it and think "Is this content that town could make?" and then I remembered that town want to make cases and be communicatable, scum want to obfuscate things and not. 
Is what I want to say.  I'm actually very sleepy and not sure what content you're referring to here. 

Oooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...that explains your turnaround on Elieson, then (if you were primarily scumreading him because of an associative read with Serela, then I understand why your read on him would drastically change after BT/Serela's flips).  Inclined to believe you here because your conviction reads as genuine (your explanation could come from either alignment, but I don't believe that you'd be ~that confident~ that you caught Serela on a scumslip as scum, even after she flipped).  Fair enough regarding your turnaround on me, maybe it just read poorly to me at the time because I was expecting an entirely different response.  Regardless, you quoted the content I was referring to earlier in your post (wherein you mention that Elieson's read on you was scummy).  I can get why you'd want to look at things from a different perspective, but you never addressed the downright bizarre change of opinions here.  Would like you to do so when you can.


Because I caught her lying day 1 and she happily contradicted herself at least twice and nobody gives a fuck.  That hit my enrage button.  I wanted her dead.  I needed her dead because she is an anathema to all that I live and stand for.  I try for logic.  I really do.  I have a degree that says at some point, I must have passed some kind of logic course called 'statistical analysis' and I did it well.  And I'm really an excellent software debugger if I say so myself, which I just did. 

Most of the time people are consistent and follow the three main laws of physics.  Serela is none of these things.  The rest of you are like well-behaved numbers; numbers yes, that follow rules and fit into formula's and equations and I can press buttons and pull levers and an expected behavior or something close to it will come out.  Serela isn't a real number.  She's not even a floating point or an inquantifiable constant like pi.  She's, just, k^2 = -1.  I can't deal with it. 

And if I hadn't had her town confirmed on day 5, I might have taken the Oarfish option.  But she was confirmed town and so was Oarfish so that ought to be a really interesting graveyard topic for us all to read. 

Already explained my thoughts on your Serela read, but I just want to say that this is my favorite post of the whole game.  Not game relevant, but I'm genuinely curious as to how you can manage to play with Serela without going insane.  I'd assume the graveyard topic is raging about how O4rfish claimed scum just so that they could shoot obvious town, because that's what I'd be doing if I was there myself.  Today could have been so much easier without that O4rfish shot (actually, the game could have feasibly ended on Day 5 itself).


I've been scum with Shadoweh before. 
This was not really her scum game so I was null on her for the longest time.  Scum!Shadoweh is more passive/reactive.  However I saw her flipflop on her Serela read, and I thought Serela was scum, and when Shadoweh picked at Serela, Serela didn't blink.  Normally Serela flares up at the slightest hint of provocation.  So I thought "Ahah, well if Serela is scum, Shadoweh must be too."  And by now I was certain Serela was scum, so it was easy to think that Shadoweh must be too, even the point of partially disregarding her meta. 

So you were scumreading Shadoweh purely because of an associative read over her own content... but I thought that you were scumreading Elieson/Serela, so what made Shadoweh/Serela more likely?  Additionally, something that bothered me (that I totally forgot to actually post like the dunce I am) was when you accused Shadoweh of lurking; what gave you the impression that she was doing so (asking because I felt she was outputting content consistently enough to be considered relatively active)?


I have been told by different players that I over use information instead of analysis/tend to intimidate/threaten players. 
I also this one time tried to lie my way out of a confirm guilty but had to self hammer when another detective appeared with a guilty on my buddy so we'll never know if I would have pulled it off. 
I have also been told that I'm a lot more careless with my vote as scum.

Thanks, I'll keep that in mind.  You're playing to your scum meta with the former (well, not currently, but on earlier days), but you've been super cautious with your vote so far.  If I can take this at face value, then you're more likely to be town.  For the record, this was ~kind of~ a reaction test, because I figured as scum all of your meta would point to a single alignment (town if you wanted to play it safe and scum if you wanted to WIFOM hard).  As town, you'd have a mixture of both (speaking from my own experience here, but as town I notice how aspects of my play are shockingly similar to my scum meta).


I don't know, it's 3 am , and I can't parse walls any more. 

I'm underwhelmed with Eli's content this day phase though. 

Fair enough.  It'd be cool if you could respond to this (and my other replies to you in this post as well) when you get back on, because this and Elie's pending responses are literally the only reasons that I'm not voting him right now.

PX

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #846 on: April 25, 2015, 08:59:46 PM »
6 and a half hours remaining

Elieson

  • i herd mafia sucks
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #847 on: April 25, 2015, 10:40:14 PM »
Refa for my sanity's sake, can you repost your questions? I thought I was answering them
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Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #848 on: April 25, 2015, 11:34:55 PM »
Don't need responses to questions, would like a response from you regarding my read on you.  Kind of busy at the moment, activity may be erratic.

Sky_Paladin

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #849 on: April 25, 2015, 11:36:47 PM »
I simply don't have time todo anything.
Re Serela: as much as I can't stand her playstyle this game she was accurate on two scum and went to the grave saying scum!Eli. That put her ahead of me in terms of performance this game.

On one hand I have universal scum read Eli. I think it's pretty dangerous/stupid of me to disregard all those P o e and wagon analysis reads.  Versus Refa who hasnt had much pressure all game aside from Eli herself.  I can't really see a case from Refa ever except for Eli.

I think town!Refa should have know better than to vote Oarfish on day 5. I also think town!Refa should have been in a great position to quickly evaluate town!Sky/scum!Eli if that was the story, but I am seeing increasingly focus on tangential questions and being more interested in where Sky/Eli want to vote than evaluating his own vote. Yes I am aware Refa literally just said he wants to vote Eli but he doesn't need to wait for us to get back to him on these fairly inconsequential questions.

I feel like Refa is stalling and fawning to some extent and I also don't like it.

Sadly I'm not confident either way.

But this is my vote. I hope it's the right one.

##vote Refa
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Elieson

  • i herd mafia sucks
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #850 on: April 25, 2015, 11:38:08 PM »
Hmmmm
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Elieson

  • i herd mafia sucks
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #851 on: April 25, 2015, 11:43:22 PM »
I didn't think you'd throw the first vote out but then again you said you had time constraints ughhhhh refa get in here
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Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #852 on: April 25, 2015, 11:46:07 PM »
I'm here.

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #853 on: April 25, 2015, 11:46:46 PM »
Eli is confirmed town?  Seriously?  Ugh...

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #854 on: April 25, 2015, 11:48:56 PM »
Sky, how are my questions inconsequential?  I asked them specifically so I could strengthen my reads on both of your slots.  Not that it matters anymore since you're confirmed scum anyways.

##Vote: Sky Paladin

Elieson

  • i herd mafia sucks
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #855 on: April 26, 2015, 12:10:15 AM »
6 and a half hours remaining

3:20 left. I can wait and I guess refa we're good now?
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Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #856 on: April 26, 2015, 12:25:04 AM »
I'm just frustrated at myself because I was so wrong.

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #857 on: April 26, 2015, 12:31:03 AM »
What exactly are you waiting for, though?  I'd like to prove that I'm town, but if my previous content didn't do that for you, I honestly can't see what will at this point.

Sky_Paladin

  • Caution is advised.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #858 on: April 26, 2015, 12:44:02 AM »
I'll make it simple for you Eli.

I started the phase scum reading you along with everybody else in the game.

We then established that there was no way that scum!Sky would hit NNR, and realistically, not Shadoweh either. 

I then isod you both and got scum Refa > scum Eli. 

Refa just said he was just about to vote you. Scum me only had to wait and hammer.  I've got time constraints I could plausibly camp the thread.

I then established why I believe in scum Refa and voted accordingly.

You know you are town, right? There is literally no reason for me to have pushed or voted Refa if I was scum. The road to mislynch Eli was the simplest and most trouble free right up until you were confirmed town...this validating my actions in this phase.

Meanwhile, Refa had had to flip his read in the dying hours after the phase after just announcing his intent to vote you "once satisfied" but he has been constantly asking questions that do not lead to a result.

After being persecuted all game this should be a sweet hammer for you.
My programming et al blog;
http://infinitestateautomaton.wordpress.com/

You want more mafia?
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Refa

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  • This is what I can do, from me to you.
    • YEEEAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #859 on: April 26, 2015, 12:55:34 AM »
I'll make it simple for you Eli.

I started the phase scum reading you along with everybody else in the game.

We then established that there was no way that scum!Sky would hit NNR, and realistically, not Shadoweh either. 

I then isod you both and got scum Refa > scum Eli. 

Refa just said he was just about to vote you. Scum me only had to wait and hammer.  I've got time constraints I could plausibly camp the thread.

I then established why I believe in scum Refa and voted accordingly.

You know you are town, right? There is literally no reason for me to have pushed or voted Refa if I was scum. The road to mislynch Eli was the simplest and most trouble free right up until you were confirmed town...this validating my actions in this phase.

Meanwhile, Refa had had to flip his read in the dying hours after the phase after just announcing his intent to vote you "once satisfied" but he has been constantly asking questions that do not lead to a result.

After being persecuted all game this should be a sweet hammer for you.

That's why this current situation makes no sense to me.  I'm in utter disbelief here; Elie should be scum.  All signs point towards him being so.  And yet...he's confirmed town.  It baffles me, and I honestly don't know how I'm supposed to defend myself at this point other than saying "I'm town".

The whole reason you voted me was because I didn't hurry up and vote Elieson.  Clearly waiting and hammering wouldn't work for you, especially considering that you mentioned you would be gone soon.  Don't like how you're insinuating that you were right all along, considering you implied that you would have voted Elieson with me in one of your earlier posts.

If I was deadset on mislynching Elieson, I would have voted him a lot earlier on in the phase and buddied with you instead of continuously pressing you despite me being fairly sure that Elieson was scum.

Don't see how I flipped on my read at all...

Honestly, I wouldn't think too harshly of Elieson if he does go through with hammering me considering my tunnel on him (I basically did the same thing when I was confirmed town in 3P LYLO myself, although it wasn't worth it because I lost).  However, being wrong doesn't make me scum.

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #860 on: April 26, 2015, 01:05:54 AM »
You're attempting to shove all of the blame of being wrong onto me ("I then isod you both and got scum Refa > scum Eli." despite the fact that you have not actually addressed my defense in any way and there's no reason you'd be so confident in voting me despite that as town).  I'm not going to deny that I was completely wrong about my Elieson scumread, but that doesn't make me scum and you using AtE to get Elieson to vote me is manipulative as fuck (""After being persecuted all game this should be a sweet hammer for you." especially considering you were casing him throughout the game as well).

Refa

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  • This is what I can do, from me to you.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #861 on: April 26, 2015, 01:22:06 AM »
Also I'm not going to make a post that solely functions to say "here's why Refa is town" because I believe all of my actions up until this point vindicate me on their own.  If you have any specific queries, I'll be happy to oblige, but yeah.  Seriously not interested into getting into a dong measuring contest with Sky to determine which of us is really town (spoilers: it's not Sky, my dong is bigge...I mean, something about being town).

PX

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #862 on: April 26, 2015, 01:32:56 AM »
2 hours

Sky_Paladin

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #863 on: April 26, 2015, 01:54:20 AM »
I'm just about at Kyoto so this is probably my las post of the game.

I'm confident that my prior actions/posts this game are consistent and have been well explained. I have no need to argue with Refa since I'm not going to change my vote and I find his obsession with arguing against it (as opposed to trying to establish scum!Sky) is basically scum flailing.  Contrast with my calm posting.

I have done my duty and all is well.
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Refa

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  • This is what I can do, from me to you.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #864 on: April 26, 2015, 01:57:54 AM »
lol

Elieson

  • i herd mafia sucks
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #865 on: April 26, 2015, 02:25:55 AM »
OK I'm DDing tonight for v something ughhhh
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Refa

  • The Nameless Monster
  • This is what I can do, from me to you.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #866 on: April 26, 2015, 02:28:43 AM »
What do you mean?

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #867 on: April 26, 2015, 02:33:16 AM »
you guys got an hour

Refa

  • The Nameless Monster
  • This is what I can do, from me to you.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #868 on: April 26, 2015, 02:40:31 AM »
##Requesting Extension

Would rather not lose to scum because of a random lynch of all things.

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 6
« Reply #869 on: April 26, 2015, 02:58:27 AM »
No extensions, again y'all had 72 hours.

37 minutes left.