Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over

[Refa]

Fair enough.  Going to stop spamming up the thread now, at least until after I've done those ISO's.

[Elieson]

IT'S A SIMPLE MISTAKE ANYONE COULD HAVE MADE IT.  The worst part is, I know I read that rule before, so I don't even know how I forgot it.  ;_;

The thing is with phase ending in like 24 minutes instead of 24 hours, I can't see that kind of question coming up instantly and in public. Mafia knew what they were doing with what I guess was a reflexive kill on Neko after the stupid o4rish Selery thing I can see happening...but not the follow up question of "Why didn't scum NoKill".

It's like

You are mafia. You know you have to kill. You perform the kill. Suddenly, you feel like asking "why didn't I..err, scum, nokill?" I'd be more confident that scum would rather not bring it up at all, rather than throw it out there

[Sky_Paladin]

TBH I am not going to pay any weight into the 'can mafia no-kill' comment because wifom.  There's 25 pages of stuff I'll go through that will bear more weight than this and I'll go through it all tomorrow when I get up. 

I'll just throw out though, that if I was scum, I would have killed Eli night 5, since NNR/Refa were town reading me, and NNR was fairly hard town reading me. 

[Elieson]

for what it's worth, i ended up googling wifom because people have said it a bunch and i don't think I really understood it's true meaning

I don't see why you would kill me when I've been the clear vote alternative for days now. In fact, you stated in #721 that i was most likely scum, and Refa stated the same thing two posts later, in #723.

Neko in Day3's #504 was townreading you, second only to Selery. Neko in Day 5's #717 was scumreading me (therefore, townreading you...at least more than me? He said he didn't know who to vote, except for me with a question mark)

So when you say you'd have killed me because NNR and Refa were simultaneously townreading you...I can't quite follow that logic since they were scumreading me while they were townreading you. That logic is backwards

Like...dems the facts man and it took me 5 minutes to crossreference reads and figure that out. What's you're defense to that

[Sky_Paladin]

Because if I was scum in LYLO, my objective isn't to prove one of you are scum, it's merely to establish that I'm town/have Refa or NNR cross vote/gg.  And that's easy enough if it was NNR/Refa LYLO. 

I'll explore this train of thought further when I get up.  I'm interested to explore 'Who scum!Refa would have hit' and 'Who scum!Eli would have hit'.  However I'll mainly be looking at the activity from day 1-day 5 and come to a conclusion about which of you two is most likely to be scum.  You're welcome to do your own review, of course. 

[Sky_Paladin]

However I will note that you've twice now used comments from day 6 instead of reviewing the game history - the first, as a means for speculating town-slip-Refa, the second just now.  I don't like it. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Now that I think about it, I also have to consider night 4, since that was a solo-scum party as well, and Shadoweh's last instructions were quite specific.  Well, bed now.  See you tomorrow.  Please don't vote until everybody has had a chance to make their opinion known. 

[Elieson]

But I went back into the game history with my citation of Neko's D3 read on you [and me]. I'm doing more, goodness, but don't tell me that I can't use final day performance in building reads. I'm obviously not confident enough to throw down a vote yet, so why is it a big deal right now. Though to be frank, "I will note it" is something that in other sites that I've played mafia on, has been said exclusively by scum.

That response to my question...eh, I feel like it's not what I really wanted to hear, but it's good enough i guess

I'm less interested in hearing your speculation on who-to-kill from a Refa v Me perspective, and more from a "Team" perspective. Ergo:

Why did Rawr+BT+Refa/Elie kill Vhaltzuki on N1?

Why did BT+Refa/Elie kill Bardiche N2 and SB N3?

AND THEN, why did Refa/Elie kill Shadow N4, and Neko N5?

[Elieson]

Also I had no idea you were in Japan until I checked your profile. Refa and I share timezones so hopefully we can come up with some decent discussion while you're asleep

G'night

[Elieson]

I'm less interested in hearing your speculation on who-to-kill from a Refa v Me perspective, and more from a "Team" perspective. Ergo:

Why did Rawr+BT+Refa/Elie kill Vhaltzuki on N1?

Why did BT+Refa/Elie kill Bardiche N2 and SB N3?

AND THEN, why did Refa/Elie kill Shadow N4, and Neko N5?

Actually Refa I can throw this question to you, but replacing your name with SkyPaladin's.


Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think that the question isn't why did they kill X on each night, but why did they leave others alive (for the later nights anyway). That might apply more to me though, I dunno.

[Elieson]

C-C-C-COMBO

I feel like the SB death is one more worth observing (and the Bardiche/Shadoweh deaths) than the others. Neko's death discussion will be WIFOM for days, and Vhaltzuki i feel was pretty universally townread enough at the time to be a threat, though i should probably doublecheck that part.

[Elieson]

SB: He was pretty universally townread by the game. Refa didn't have that much to say about him in the grand scope, but probably because you don't normally talk about your townreads. Skypal had even less to say about him, but both of you were townreading him fairly decently.

during D3 SB townread Refa and SkyPaladin, and really didn't have any haters

Though, interesting SkyPaladin post here,
https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18246.msg1176627.html#msg1176627, wrt why vhaltzuki was killed N1.

I got a meeting bbl

[Refa]

Because if I was scum in LYLO, my objective isn't to prove one of you are scum, it's merely to establish that I'm town/have Refa or NNR cross vote/gg.  And that's easy enough if it was NNR/Refa LYLO. 

Considering me/NNR were townreading each other as well, that would be a lot harder (e.g. there's no guarantee we would flip our reads on each other over flipping our reads on you).  I don't really consider kill analysis for at least the first three days to be worthy of much consideration, because the kills would have been motivated in part by another flipped scum member (possibly the N4 kill as well, depending on whether BT was actively lurking or not).  FWIW, I would have killed you as scum because Elieson expressed an interest in lynching NNR yesterday.

Actually Refa I can throw this question to you, but replacing your name with SkyPaladin's.

You can throw it at me, but will you?  ...OK, fine.

I don't really get the first 3 NK's.  Maybe just because of general towniness?  Mitsuki suspected neither of the flipped scum (or anyone else, for that matter), what even were Bard's scumreads, and SB was the only one of which who voted flipped scum (AKA BT).  So at least that last death was explained (although why SB over Shadoweh, who was basically tunneling into him at that point...that's the kill scum!me would make).

Elie, you should answer your own question.

Though, interesting SkyPaladin post here,
https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18246.msg1176627.html#msg1176627, wrt why vhaltzuki was killed N1.

Please explain.

[Refa]

Actually BT probably would have moved his vote to Serela if he was on at the time, so he probably wasn't.  Ignore that portion then.

[Elieson]

Mits was pretty heavy town though, no one really suspected her, much like SB IMO (SBIIBO?)

I really don't have any idea why bard would be the "optimal" n2 kill when he was making a few enemies here and there? Same with Shadoweh...like, Shadoweh was pretty scummy looking thanks everyone else for putting him in your "I'll totally lynch this guy if we can't lynch Elie or O4rfish" lynch list. Like, Shadoweh was probably the worst kill choice possible?

Nekorex...idfk

wrt the Vhaltzuki kill

Maybe scumteam just feared Vhaltz. 

This part throws me off because one I didn't know vhaltz had such a reputation for being fearkilled and two since vhaltz didn't actually do anything all I can do is assume that Mits was killed because of what Mits did in game, rather than what Vhaltz could've done. To me, it's a strange thing to consider, since I don't really get fearkilling and how can you even meta someone who

Like, Vhaltz subbed about 30 minutes after Phase ended, and flipped 23 hours later. Unless the scumteam just threw in a kill on Mitsuki [Vhaltz] and walked away, the timing just doesn't make sense. Of confirmed scum, BT posted 6 hours later and Rawr like, eventually. You posted almost by the next day, and SkyPal was right there with the flip like an hour after phase end. If Vhaltz was fearkilled because of mitsuki's d1 performance, it would have had to be a pretty confident  fearkill and I don't see that being something that you would do @Refa since no offense I don't think you're that comfortable with his meta enough to fearkill someone who just jumped into the game rather than someone else you might've been concerned about throughout D1.

[Elieson]

ergo scum had 23/24 hours to contemplate if [Vhaltz] was worth killing on N1 as opposed to i dunno, some other general townread from D1 like Selera or Neko who both looked pretty town and were at least anticipated to provide consistant play into D2 (where hell we don't even know how active Vhaltz would've been).

[Elieson]

Refa didn't really have a standout D1 game but his play was pretty town if at least not unmemorable. I guess I could say it even moreso about SB (more unmemorable) but that's because SB posts like once

SkyPaladin was not shortspoken on D1. hmmm

[Refa]

I really don't have any idea why bard would be the "optimal" n2 kill when he was making a few enemies here and there? Same with Shadoweh...like, Shadoweh was pretty scummy looking thanks everyone else for putting him in your "I'll totally lynch this guy if we can't lynch Elie or O4rfish" lynch list. Like, Shadoweh was probably the worst kill choice possible?

Nekorex...idfk

I don't remember anyone scumreading Bard by the time N2 rolled around, so I can get why scum would kill him.  Shadoweh tunneled on scum for a few days, so that's understandable as well...but the NNR kill?  Makes no fucking sense; I'm actually really curious to hear why scum went for him over me come postgame.

wrt the Vhaltzuki kill

This part throws me off because one I didn't know vhaltz had such a reputation for being fearkilled and two since vhaltz didn't actually do anything all I can do is assume that Mits was killed because of what Mits did in game, rather than what Vhaltz could've done. To me, it's a strange thing to consider, since I don't really get fearkilling and how can you even meta someone who

Like, Vhaltz subbed about 30 minutes after Phase ended, and flipped 23 hours later. Unless the scumteam just threw in a kill on Mitsuki [Vhaltz] and walked away, the timing just doesn't make sense. Of confirmed scum, BT posted 6 hours later and Rawr like, eventually. You posted almost by the next day, and SkyPal was right there with the flip like an hour after phase end. If Vhaltz was fearkilled because of mitsuki's d1 performance, it would have had to be a pretty confident  fearkill and I don't see that being something that you would do @Refa since no offense I don't think you're that comfortable with his meta enough to fearkill someone who just jumped into the game rather than someone else you might've been concerned about throughout D1.

No offense to Mitsuki, but I can't see what she did that warranted an N1 kill.  OK, noone was scumreading her by the end of the day, but people had scumread her earlier and others like SB and Bard were stronger townreads (well, at least FMPOV; maybe scum thought differently).  I wouldn't personally fearkill Vhaltz (I can't remember ever playing with Town!Vhaltz in an NOC game), but that's not really a good reason to clear me*?  BT and Dr. Rawr have played a lot of games with Vhaltz (...right?  I kind of assume that everyone from MotK has played together for a somewhat significant amount of time), so the fearkill could have come from them over me (otherwise you'd be cleared by the same reasoning, which would make voting for scum hella easy).

*For the record, I'm questioning your townreads on me not because I want you to scumread me but rather because I'm kind of worried that you're buddying with me (which would probably be the optimal play for you to make in LYLO as scum?) and it's making it harder for me to read you without bias ("Hey, Elieson is right about my alignment, he must be town!  Wait...scum would know my alignment too, right?  Well fuck.")..hence the questions, which is also why I haven't really followed up on your previous answers because they've been fine.

[Elieson]

Well like, I'm town reading you and you're here so...idk...you've done fewer scum things than slypal over there to me. But also my reads have been far from stellar so there s that I guess

Man I'm not tired of mobile posting

[Sky_Paladin]

Ok. Sitting down and reading the game now.

[Sky_Paladin]

Things:

Scum often vote for each other in RVS.  Other than SB, Refa is the only other player offhand I can think of who is famous for 'super bussing'. 
Refa votes Bard, not a bus. 
Eli votes Refa, not a bus. 
BT votes Eli - could be a bus. 
Sky votes SB - not a bus. 
Rawr votes Sky - could be a bus*

*I know it's not a bus but for the sake of completeness I've included it. 

Moving on. 

BT ISO
Here BT spends some time talking about the mid day 1 wagons, and votes Mitsuki. 
Highlights:
Attacks Mitsuki/Sky, defends Bard/Serela/Dormio. 
Here BT asks if a Sky wagon is still possible, and votes Oarfish apparently as a consolidation on not!Dormio.  Elieson then shifts her vote to Oarfish, also, making the Oarfish wagon suddenly the most viable. 
SB then asked BT why he was not okay with a Dormio lynch.  He responded with a quote of Dormio voting for me as a town quote.  He ultimately hammers Dormio at the five minute mark, which Eli will poke him for during day 2. 
Eli, for her part, unvoted slightly prior to the hammer and couldn't decide between Dormio/Oarfish, but up until that point, had been voting Oarfish. 

Day 2, BT again flags Oarfish in here like most of the players.  Also mentions Sky/Serela and wants me to address some comments I made about Oarfish's scum team picks. 
BT

I keep reversing my opinion on Sky because I think him prodding Oarfish/Elie is townie, but then I remember that he basically namedrops me as scum whenever it's appropriate but never does anything about it, so, like, is Sky just being hyper? I can't tell and I don't have the time to.

BT continuing to discredit me :/

BT's last post of the game commented that Refa/Eli appear to have some kind of meta handle on each other, and since this game appears to have been highly about meta, it's a pity he didn't say more. 

Overall -
BT didn't mention his flipped scum buddy (Rawr) at all.  He never mentioned Refa or Eli on their own; Eli twice (once with Oarfish, once with Refa). 
I think BT was mainly focusing on town players so while I would consider it a clear for me, it's not much use on it's own unambiguously identifying which of Refa or Eli was buddies with him.  Considering that BT voted Eli in RVS makes me say this ISO slightly favours scum!Eli over anybody else. 

Moving on. 
Rawr ISO
Rawr's first post of the game was to defend Serela/Bard and vote/attack Sky. 
Rawr supports his vote in here.
Vanished until day 2. 
Interesting post from BT on day 2. 
Here he sheeps Bard on his NNR vote, "my gut is telling me NNR is town", and this quote. 

my gut is probably telling me BT is scum but thats just because he also i think has a scum lurk meta and i have nothing else to slam into BT about him possibly being scum. i wouldbe voting BT right now but looking at the wagon we have zakeri who has made one post about his vote and that was him agreeing with oarfish theory on who the scum team is which i think kinda fell apart when he voted NNR. and elieson seems pretty upset BT tried to end the phase early and something about voting oarfish.

Here he is agreeing with the wagon on BT but criticises Zak and Eli's votes on it. 

After that, he died.  Oh well. 
Main things are that we now know for sure that it was town!NNR/scum!Rawr on day 2 and we can drill down on the votes here. 

Overall:
He has in common with BT a desire to see Sky flipped. 
He also has in common with BT a defend on Serela/Bard although he doesn't attack Mitsuki. 
He didn't RVS vote and kind of mid-day 1 made a case/vote on me.  When given an opportunity to go elsewhere (Dormio/Oarfish wagons emergent) he stayed voting Sky. 
Again, I think this ISO is helpful to give Sky!town but it's not particularly useful for picking which of Refa/Eli are scum. 
It seems like Rawr managed to avoid mentioning Refa entirely, and only mentioned Eli in regards to criticising her vote on BT. 

Now moving on to the living players. 

[Sky_Paladin]

I already went through Eli quite a bit; the post she linked previously where I outline a possible scum team of BT/Rawr/Eli by chance looks quite compelling and I'm inclined to sheep myself on it. 

Eli's day 1 is mostly tunneling Sky, and since neither Sky or Eli have flipped yet, that's not useful. 
Late day 1 she does post this though:
(slab of text condoning votes on Sky/Oarfish/Dormio followed with:)

Who's BT again? If all else fails I'd %%Vote this chump for his lame attempt at contribution which amounted to sheeping and nothing else

Rawr's #96 seems really disconnected from the game, reads as active lurking

Which is either amazingly perceptive or suspiciously accurate, depending on your cynicism. 

Here Eli puts in a quite credible effort to restart the Sky wagon.  At this point I would say Eli is the driving force on the train day 1, and Rawr just sheeped it.  I think this is probably a strong town post, as I don't expect to see scum making this much effort when day 1 we had Dormio/Oarfish as completely viable easy-mode counterwagons.  It's somewhat undone in her next post when she then sheeps Mitsuki and votes Oarfish for being 'Mitsuasive'.  Then this:

If you can explain why mafia would throw in the towel D1 then I'm all ears

re: Oarfish apparent game-sign out.  Then she unvotes. 

Eli also said that she wasn't particularly town reading Dormio, but didn't really give her thoughts either way about Oarfish.  I think her unvote in this situation is plausible. 

Day 2
I like Eli's catch up post.  She town reads Oarfish/scum reads BT.  Clarifies she would have voted Dormio, which is nice since it's easy for somebody to say 'If I was scum, I would have voted (the guy that got hammered)'. 

Then there's a vote on BT, followed by a post against Oarfish for picking a Sky/Eli/??? scum team. 

Eli then revotes Sky and has this list of reads:

:Would Lynch:
SkyPaladin
O4rfish
BT

:Wouldn't Lynch:
Selery
Dr Rawr

That's one scum in each list.  Interestingly Oarfish made it to the lynch list from being town read, I presume because he keeps scum reading Eli. This is also the day that Rawr flipped scum without Eli on that wagon, so that's pretty awkward. 

Day 3. 
List of reads and explanations.
Nothing here strikes me as outstandingly poor. 
Scum reading Zak for his day 1/day 2 activity. 
Null on BT, light town on SB. 

Interesting quote on voting Sky

I didn't have any more confident reads at the time except SkyPaladin, but I wasn't 100% sold on it

given the basis of her vote/push day 1 was because I wasn't 100% sure on Serela. 

The main take-away from this is a pretty solid vote on Refa, so I'll quote this for the sake of time:
"

Next up, Refa.
=For starters, some responses.
---I unvoted and didn't vote Dormio 9 minutes before phase end because like i've said four times, I didn't want to rush phase end early when people were around discussing things.
---When I have no idea how to read X player, and someone is evidently putting up a decent yet questionable case on X player, I might agree with it (and sheep it) but that doesn't mean I agree with it 100%. Mits had a decent case on O4rfish at the time but I didn't have any more confident reads at the time except SkyPaladin, but I wasn't 100% sold on it and I didn't think that she was either, hence my inquisition
---Why would I ever have a reason not to vote (unless it's like, an unnecessary phase end hammer or something)?
---Yes, I did drop my case on my #1 scumread at the time, because I couldn't get him lynched. People didn't agree with me and were voting elsewhere, making my vote on SkyPaladin neigh useless. I wasn't benefiting anyone by holding a vote where it wouldn't yield any fruit. I already argued my casing, and if the others don't agree with it, then that's their preference. We can't always lynch our #1 scumreads.
And onto thoughts
-I don't feel like Refa's reads are solid. Like, they have continuity, but they feel more or less locked in place
-Questionable position with Dr Rawr, especially this line:

Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum vi scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.

Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum v scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.
which was a direct response to Dr Rwar. It just doesn't read right...I can't put my finger on it exactly
-His ISO of Dr Rawr produced such nonconclusive thoughts that it almost reads like Refa's not sure if he should push who might be his buddy
-Presented a bad position on the O4rfish, granted you only retracted your vote because you thought it'd be silly for him to give up when you admit to never buying the "scumclaim" to begin with

Analysis: Mild null-leaning-town read that's become an unexpected scumread

"

I basically like this post a lot.  The positioning on Serela/Oarfish seems to basically parallel what many known town flips, and myself, were thinking. 

The next post provides a very clear and detailed breakdown on why she is townreading Serela.  In fact, all her reads are well elucidated.  I take issue with this:

I?m not sure if you read my entire post but I?m townreading BT now that I reread him with a level head

Because she apparently null reading him in her catch up post, so it's not clear how he got to town. 

This:

In the post where he votes for O4rfish, Refa just sheeps Bard?s case, in addition to ?what he already said about O4rfish?, implying that there was a hefty pile of reasons as to why he thought O4rfish was scum. The Unvote came with the justification of ?Well I never actually thought the things he was doing were that scummy so yea? which goes against his previous stance of conviction pretty hard.

on Refa looks pretty amazing and I need to review this for myself. 

Late day 4 or 5 I called Elie out for switching her reads from scum!Refa to scum!Zak, in review I see I was mistaken, as she had clarified her Zak read prior to her vote shift that came here and I just can't read. 

@SkyPaladin why are you just sheeping Refa and not really reading anything of my D3 at this point. I understand you're unmotivated but come on.

The reason was that during day 1, you were attacking me, and Refa made some comments that included a town read on me/did not vote.  So I became naturally more trusting of Refa. 

She sticks to her case and argues with Refa some more until the phase ends with a town Zak lynch. 

Day 4. 
Refa hate seems to have died down, and Shadoweh is the new flavour. 

Townread on BT. 
Troubling list of reads. 
Town:  BT, Serela. 
Mid:  Sky/Refa/NNR
Scum: Oarfish/Shadoweh

I didn't really see a satisfactory conclusion to the Eli/Refa argument so I'm wondering how Refa got to mid-tier.  Also BT placement is awkard - Elie also had Rawr as town-no-lynch. 

Day ended with BT scum flip and Eli on Shadoweh, then surprise day 5. 

Helped Oarfish kill himself.  I'm not sure how to find this as a scummy action except to note that both Sky and Refa didn't vote that wagon. 

Okay, now going to look at Refa.  Then I'll contrast and see if I can get something useful out of it. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Refa ISO
First content post of the game. 
Basically shares the same meta with Rawr/BT at this point on defending Serela.  Votes NNR.  Other stuff not relevant to current game state. 
Upgrades from Serela defense to Mitsuki attack in here which is largely consistent with the other flipped scum day 1. 

What "Refa said about Oarfish"

You're joking, right?  People are complaining about Bard being too abrasive and you're saying that he's suspiciously tolerant.

Kind of assuming the same about your Dormio vote.  What bothers me more here is what that implies, namely that you don't really have any thoughts on the rest of the game.

In regards to his vote on Oarfish in this post.

In addition to what I already said about Oarfish, Bard's case is also completely sheepable (basically tied up all of the issues I already had with the slot into one case haha).

In this post, Refa also changes his stance towards Mitsuki/NNR. 
He also said this about Dormio:

I...wouldn't be opposed to a Dormio lynch because he hasn't really done anything that gives me a strong read on him despite him doing things (this is weird because he was more memorable in CYOUR), but I'd much rather lynch someone who I'm actually scumreading then just sort of meh on.

He also said this about Sky:

So he's not scummy because he overjustified himself, but because he waffled on a read that he earlier had conviction on despite no reason to do so (because town can waffle on their scumreads, but with no post from Serela, Sky's waffle doesn't make any sense)?  Just want to make sure that we're on the same page here, because that's pretty legit (would sheep tier). 

town has this CONVICTION that scum blows at faking, which makes me feel less sure about my SkyPal scumread (which was mostly a sheep off of Elieson

So at this point, Refa is subtly encouraging/approving all three of the wagons, which I happen to know were all town :V

Votes Oarfish, BT hammers, phase end. 

Day 2. 
Refa opens with a case on Eli. 
The case heavily focuses on her decision to unvote in the last few minutes of the phase end, and failing to vote for one of Oarfish/Dormio.  Since we now know that Oarfish and Dormio were both town, we can't skew this argument based around perhaps-Oarfish-was-a-scumbuddy. 
Refa doesn't really mention or focus on anything else out of Eli's day 1 conduct which I find curious. 

Then this:

I'm sure that at least one of the scum is hiding amongst the inactives, but ugh fuck reading inactives (please help).

"at least one scum amongst (group)" is like Mafia 2008 scum tell.  Red flag, especially when we now know that there was 'at least one scum'. 

Refa's ISO of Rawr. 

Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum vi scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.

Interesting.  A good indication that scum!Refa is locked into an Eli vote at this point, which I will take into consideration. 

I would be way more willing to sheep a read on him (since I literally forgot he existed until people started voting him today), but I just can't see scum being so inconsistent. 

Maybe it's because I'm such a perfectionist as scum myself, but I can't come up with a scum explanation for him voting NNR despite townreading him

I can get why people are scumreading Dr. Rawr and I have no issues with them, it's just that one post that makes this frustrating for me.

All of this looks like he's washing his hands of his scum buddy imo.  The counterpoint to this is that I know that if I was scum, I would be loathe to review my two buddies interactions because it's just so dangerous. 

Then consolidate-hammer on Rawr.  Day 3. 

There's a short list of reads and then a post responding to a bunch of people.  He suggests the reason he's not dead is because he's a scum designated mislynch.  Possibly gives out why I'm not dead also - I'm townclearing Refa from early day 1.  Suggests the idea of day 2 scum/scum wagons. 

Response to Eli's case on Refa. 
Applies pressure for town!Rawr read. 
Applies pressure for scum!Zak read.  Accuses Eli of nitpicking. 

Quoteslabwar.  I think this is not easy to digest and I'll have to individually resolve each point to see who's side I'm on.  Ugh. 

I unvoted and didn't vote Dormio 9 minutes before phase end because like i've said four times, I didn't want to rush phase end early when people were around discussing things.

Dormio wasn't at L-1 for the longest time, so this is wrong.

I previously evaluated that Eli's unvote was plausible.  Not so much because of conversation, as Eli states here, but because neither Oarfish or Dormio were her preferred scum reads.  She was basically null on both of them.  So while Refa is *correct*, this point does not stand against Eli. 

When I have no idea how to read X player, and someone is evidently putting up a decent yet questionable case on X player, I might agree with it (and sheep it) but that doesn't mean I agree with it 100%. Mits had a decent case on O4rfish at the time but I didn't have any more confident reads at the time except SkyPaladin, but I wasn't 100% sold on it and I didn't think that she was either, hence my inquisition

-...If both of the wagons were town.  I already said this.  Why would you need to make an empty unvote as town?

I feel that this is a loaded question and that Refa is putting too much weight on the importance of the late phase unvote as the basis for scum!Eli. 

Yes, I did drop my case on my #1 scumread at the time, because I couldn't get him lynched. People didn't agree with me and were voting elsewhere, making my vote on SkyPaladin neigh useless. I wasn't benefiting anyone by holding a vote where it wouldn't yield any fruit. I already argued my casing, and if the others don't agree with it, then that's their preference. We can't always lynch our #1 scumreads.

Dropping your #1 scumread isn't scummy, it's the fact that you never deigned to mention this until you were called out for it.  Again, why?

I don't feel that Eli really did drop her number 1 scum read.  On day 1, the wagon fell apart so she had to abandon it. 
This point may have water on day 2.  I don't see anybody specifically calling Eli out for it though (perhaps I missed it?) but she recases/revotes me around halfway through day 2. 
I don't think this element by Refa is valid or fair. 

I don't feel like Refa's reads are solid. Like, they have continuity, but they feel more or less locked in place

Seriously?

Regardless of whether I agree or not, 'seriously' is not an appropriate response.  You should have asked for her to explain. 

Questionable position with Dr Rawr, especially this line:Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum v scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.
which was a direct response to Dr Rwar. It just doesn't read right...I can't put my finger on it exactly

Fuck you, I already explained why I was non conclusive.  It's because a player I was null on for the entire game was still null after I ISOed him.  This is such a farfetched conclusion, like how would I not know whether or not I'd want to bus him as scum when he was the leading wagon.  Probably wouldn't annoy me as much if it wasn't hypocritical as fuck considering your own read on Dr. Rawr.

This is saying that because Eli is the one making the point, it's invalid.  That's a logical fallacy; the point is or is not valid regardless of where it comes from. 
My feeling is that Refa has over reacted to a weak point and I don't like it. 

Presented a bad position on the O4rfish, granted you only retracted your vote because you thought it'd be silly for him to give up when you admit to never buying the "scumclaim" to begin with

How is my position on Oarfish bad.

I unvoted Oarfish because I didn't believe his scumslip was a scumslip, and SB's explanation of what he was actually saying didn't seem like something I could see scum saying.  That's also why I cut the dude a lot of slack on D2, although some of his posts today are just ugh.

Let's go check what happened when Refa unvoted.  Let's recall he was approving the Sky/Dormio wagon on day 1. 

Just going to come out and say that I didn't actually believe that Oarfish really scumclaimed, which is why I asked him that question to begin with.  I figured as town, he'd be indignant and say something along the lines of "how the fuck is that a scumclaim in any way".  As scum, he'd probably try to attack...not me, because he wouldn't be able to counterwagon me, but my argument? I'm...not really sure how to explain the difference, but that's basically what I was looking for.  Didn't expect him to ah, completely disappear off the face of the game.  Kind of conflicted here because I don't see why he'd have to give up as scum this early (and I'm sure that one of the wagons is scum, but not both), but at the same time I don't really see why he'd just ditch everyone without an explanation as town.  Ugh, mafia sucks.
SB:  "He literally implied that he was glad he'd kept up his streak of rolling town. How was it a scumclaim?"
...Wait, was that what he meant when he said he was glad he'd kept up his streak?  Fuuuuuuuck, scum never says stuff like that.  Mreh, just going with this. ##BigPlays ##RefaIsBestMafiaPlayer ##DormioErgoScum


##Unvote
##Vote: Dormio

The explanation is at least relatable to what happened.  So I can't take this either way for them; it's a null point. 

So let's scroll up and summarise. 

1 - Refa focusing on Eli's unvote and arguing the semantics for a scum case, rather than focusing on day 1/day 2 actual content e.g. tunneling Sky. 
2 - Some logical fallacies from Refa and an unfair assessment of her reads. 
3 - Counterattack is null at best. 

So overall I'd say Refa's counterpoints failed.  Eli's case still stands. 

***Back to your regularly scheduled ISO***

In this post states preference to lynch Eli over Zak, but would hammer Zak if necessary.  Zak explodes. 

Day 4. 

Round 2 with Eli. 

That's uh...actually a reasonable explanation, I hate you. 

I'm still not seeing what you found so townie about Dr. Rawr.  If you mean the lack of scum intent, then I can agree because my issues were moreso with his play

Regardless, this seems like a difference in opinions over something that's actually telling to your alignment, so dropping it. 

I've come to a decisive conclusion regarding you, and that's that I have no decisive conclusion at all

This looks like backpedaling to me.  Refa didn't get support for an Eli lynch so he's withdrawing rather than trying to push it. 

After this he votes on to Oarfish for 'previously stated reasons'. 

List of reads, has BT null, and only one scum pick - Oarfish.  Elie is now null.  Strange town read on Shadoweh. 

My gut says these reads are fabricated. 

Then votes BT for consolidation, back to Oarfish when Sky/NNR are indecisive, and then Sky/NNR hammer before Refa can re-vote BT. 

Day 5 is super short.  I somehow didn't notice that Refa and Eli voted for Oarfish.  So that's, sadly, probably null. 

And I'll hit post, take a shower, come back and reflect. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Night kill analysis: 
Team 1 - Refa, BT, Rawr
Team 2 - Eli, BT, Rawr

On day 1, BT/Rawr were defending Serela/Mitsuki, and to some extent, Bard.  This may explain the reason for them being killed night 1/night 2, as a basis for "well the people we defended flipped green, so..."  Alternatively they may also have been hit because they are probably the best players in the game.  Serela defence may just be because she's useful as a late game mislynch and also because she hard counter attacks anybody who scum reads her. 

After that, I'm speculating scum were knocking out the most town-read players.  I don't think SB was being town read by that many players, but I've seen a lot of 'SB was being town read by everybody' type quotes so maybe I'm mistaken.  I think SB was night hit because he was being town read. 

Day 4 ended with Shadoweh/Oarfish/Serela all confirmed town, with a strong likelihood that Sky/NNR/Refa were town also.  The only player not in that group was Eli. 

Scum absolutely had to hit one of Shadoweh/Oarfish/Serela, and of the three, Serela was the most town having accurately been early on both the Rawr and BT wagons.  Probably the optimal hit. 
Shadoweh was a sub-optimal hit; she was being scum/mistrusted by several players, not really actively contributing and a viable mislynch option because of several lurking accusations. 

Shadoweh's main content near phase end was posting some tallies and saying the scum team was Eli and BT, so I have to consider the reason Shadoweh was hit was because she was scumreading Eli after BT flipped.  The question is:  Did Eli make the hit, or did Refa make the hit to frame Eli?  After day 5, probably every player in the game (myself included) was ready to lynch Eli.  So I don't think it was necessary for Eli to make a sub-optimal hit to preserve her name, it wouldn't matter who she hit, we'd all think the same thing. 

Probably the natural way that day 5 would have gone down would be we lynched Eli, and if she flipped town, she'd probably have shot NNR, as stated when she listed her picks on day 5.  I think her 'forgetting' Shadoweh was already out of the game is null, in the same way Refa 'forgot' scum probably has to night kill.  Eli was already suspicious for voting Shadoweh, so I think it's more likely Shadoweh was killed to further implicate Eli/get a free mislynch and shot on not!Refa, and go into LYLO with Refa/Oarfish/somebody who was town reading Refa.  EG Sky. 

I've also noted Refa saying on more than one occasion that the kills don't make sense.  Contrast with me saying that they make a lot of sense! 

I'm probably going with scum!Refa at the moment. 

Vote analysis is next. 

[Sky_Paladin]

I forgot to add that Refa was also defending Serela/Bard and attacking Mitsuki to some extent, in the same manner as BT and Rawr.  I also found that BT/Rawr/Refa/Eli were all up for a Sky lynch, and in particular, Refa reversed his initial Sky read to agree with what Eli wrote.  I think this lends more to scum!Refa than Eli. 

Votes;

Well actually going through the ISO's kind of made this clear already. 
On day 1, Sky was Eli's preferred lynch.  She was unable to consolidate on to what became two town wagons. 
On day 1, Refa didn't have a preferred lynch, and went NNR -> Oarfish -> Dormio. 

On day 2, Sky was Eli's preferred lynch, and didn't get to consolidate. 
On day 2, Eli was Refa's preferred lynch, but hammered Rawr instead. 

On day 3, Refa was Eli's preferred lynch, but consolidated on to Zak. 
On day 3, Eli was Refa's preferred lynch, and didn't get to consolidate. 

On day 4, Shadoweh was Eli's preferred lynch, and didn't get to consolidate. 
On day 4, Oarfish was Refa's preferred lynch, but consolidated on to BT at near phase end, then back to Oarfish. 

On day 5 both of you assisted Oarfish's murder-suicide with Serela. 

Refa never scum read any of BT or Rawr, and only ever voted by consolidation. 

***

I don't feel this is conclusive either way. 

I'm going to work now, I'll think about it some more when I get back in a couple hours. 

[Refa]

Elie, what do you make of Sky's case on me?  Making a post right now (sorry, not an ISO, I just do not have the time to make a detailed ISO of both of you with how my schedule is), but this is kind of important to my read on you, so yeah.

[Elieson]

it...

it makes so much sense

in particular,

Shadoweh's main content near phase end was posting some tallies and saying the scum team was Eli and BT, so I have to consider the reason Shadoweh was hit was because she was scumreading Eli after BT flipped.  The question is:  Did Eli make the hit, or did Refa make the hit to frame Eli?  After day 5, probably every player in the game (myself included) was ready to lynch Eli.  So I don't think it was necessary for Eli to make a sub-optimal hit to preserve her name, it wouldn't matter who she hit, we'd all think the same thing. 

Probably the natural way that day 5 would have gone down would be we lynched Eli, and if she flipped town, she'd probably have shot NNR, as stated when she listed her picks on day 5.  I think her 'forgetting' Shadoweh was already out of the game is null, in the same way Refa 'forgot' scum probably has to night kill.  Eli was already suspicious for voting Shadoweh, so I think it's more likely Shadoweh was killed to further implicate Eli/get a free mislynch and shot on not!Refa, and go into LYLO with Refa/Oarfish/somebody who was town reading Refa.  EG Sky. 

It's an unbelievable amount of effort which could go either way honestly, but I think it's strange that after all of my d1 thoughts and pretty much universal scumread on the game's plane, that he'd read into me, and things aimed at the both of us, with such intricacy

I need to sleep on it, and reread his posts with a clear head. It's a lot to absorb but I'm finding myself at this moment, agreeing with him. When I get to work tomorrow I'll take some time to the side early on and see if my thoughts change.

However I read what's happened and regardless of what I look at, I feel like end-of-phase vote analysis isn't going to give me a conclusive read, but that means I'm dumping my hopes on Nightkill analysis and theoretical WIFOMs, it's driving me nuts

[Refa]

Going to get kicked off my computer internet in a few, will finish my post when I'm back on it.  FWIW, I'd expect you to 1) defend me as town (mostly because there's no reason for you to defend me as scum when there'd be a very easy mislynch on your hands) or 2) just vote me as scum (since there'd be a very good chance that Skype would vote me and throw in that scenario).  Not sure what to make of your waffling, please have a more definite read on me (hell, I'd welcome a hard scumread at this point; sure, it'd make this even more stressful for me, but at least I'd have a better idea of who is scum).

[Refa]

Sky, I'm not famous for super bussing (where did you even get that idea), but if you thought I was, then I'm confused as to how this didn't warrant mention elsewhere in your analysis.  For example, if someone like SB went through the game without bussing like a champ, I would react differently than if someone else (say Mitsuki) had done the same.

I'm not really seeing how BT's content clears you.  You say that he was constantly pushing you, but all I'm seeing is one or two complaints in your general direction without even a vote to back them up.  It's a disconnect between his words and his actions (especially where he stated "can we just lynch Sky Paladin" without actually putting a vote on you; reads as him deciding whether or not a bus would be worth it), which doesn't clear you but ironically enough does the opposite.

However, I do agree that your interactions with Dr. Rawr are more favorable.  For one, he actually voted you and pushed you for a decent portion of the first day.  Secondly, he had legitimate interactions with you.  Overall, this points towards Town Paladin.

Your townread on Elieson is either forced or negligent, depending on your alignment.  Why is he town for casing you (he didn't even analyze your later content that day) FYPOV?  This only makes logical sense if you're scum.  I agree with you that Elie's catch up post was good (particularly wherein he cases BT for a trivial reason, when it stands to reason he'd have a much more solid case if he was bussing a buddy), but earlier you yourself said that it read as a bus; what happened to that read?  I don't have any issues with his early D3 content either, so nothing much to say here.  Still think his scumread on me was bad in context, and Elie of all people should know why.  I also can't see how his position on Serela/O4rfish parallels many town flips and yourself, considering that he was hard townreading Serela and scum reading O4rfish (or how I'm scum for sharing a similar stance myself).  But maybe I'm missing something and you can tell me how this mirrors your position on either of the slots?  Anyways, moving onto your case on me.

I really don't see how all of those are scum tells.  You say that most of my posts point towards me being scum.  Looking through your post by post analysis, they prove exactly the opposite from my point of view.  Firstly, you say that I am acting in accordance with flipped scum based on the fact that I townread Serela at around the same time; I'm confused as to why this is a scummy play on my part.  Anyways, while I was casing O4rfish (the Dormio vote was for consolidation), your later post which showed me "casing" you is...not actually that at all?  Earlier I mentioned that I'd sheep Elie's case on you, with your quoted post showing that I wasn't confident in doing that anymore, owing to my Elie scumread.  I'm not sure how that constitutes as subtlety encouraging your wagon, unless you have a different definition of that phrase than I do.

You should take another look at my Elieson case, because it wasn't based on him waffling on his scumbuddy O4rfish; actually it was the opposite (and I said numerous times that I didn't see them as scumbuddies, so I'm not quite sure how you managed to not pick up on that), wherein Elieson made more sense as scum if Dormio and O4rfish were town (which would explain his apathy towards the lynch).  Elie had good interactions with scum as well, otherwise it would have been SO EASY to go into today with a vote on him; as it is, I'm not ready to dismiss the possibility of Scum Paladin.  Regarding your issues with my read on Dr. Rawr, I wouldn't have waffled on him so much if I knew he was scum beforehand.  Additionally, if my interactions were as bad as you suggest, why were you townreading me for them earlier?  What changed?  I'll fully admit that I was confirmation biasing Elieson hard by Day 3 (him scumreading a townread of mine didn't help), mostly because I was super confident that Elieson would flip scum and after he cased me, it made me even more sure that I was on the right track.  I also don't see how my reaction to Elieson is a logical fallacy either.  I never said his point was invalid because he made it, only that that's the reason it annoyed me so much (the point would be invalid no matter who said it, but it wouldn't have phased me as much if it came from someone else).  I already explained my read on Elie's Day 1 content (it wouldn't be telling without a flip from you, which still hasn't happened) and while I agree that in retrospect I should have paid closer attention to his D2 content, your second and third summaries don't hold any water (as I should have proven in this paragraph alone).

Regarding your next post, I uh...am not sure what you're getting at.  There were plenty of people who were willing to lynch Elieson or have him vigged by the time I reconsidered my scumread on him, so there would be no reason for me to change my read on him as scum.  Look, I don't particularly mind you having issues with my posts as long as they're well explained; by the same coin, it's irritating when you say things like "my gut says these reads are fabricated" this late in the game without any explanations.  Please do so in the future.

My overall thoughts on you is that you're either town with a serious case of confirmation bias or you're scum.  Your town read on Elieson isn't well substantiated, and neither is your scumread on me (several of your points either make no sense, such as me killing Shadoweh to incriminate Elieson when he likely would have been vigged/lynched regardless, and you outright misrep me in others as I've proven above).  I'm leaning towards the latter at the moment, less so because of the former two reads (it'll be easier to ascertain your motivation regarding both of those when you reply to me) but moreso because your first post seems to have been made with the express purpose of clearing yourself and I don't like what that says about your priorities.

Don't think you're off the hook just because I'm leaning Sky over you at the moment, Elie!  When you're finishing your own impressions of Sky's posts, I'd also like you to analyze his first post and his read on you.  Is it legit?  FYPOV, does it come across as buddying to you in any way?  Is his quick turnaround on you justified (as in, it makes sense that he'd come to such a conclusion considering his thought process) or does it seem forced? Why?  This also applies to his case on me, but I figured you'd talk about that anyways so whatever.  Anyways, with your replies and Sky's, I'm reasonably confident that I can figure this game out (well, as confident as anyone can be in LYLO, at any rate).  Getting scumread by Sky was a blessing in disguise, honestly (otherwise I'd be waffling like crazy trying to figure out which of the two of you is actually scum).

[Refa]

^Phone post, so excuse the typoes.