Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over

[Sky_Paladin]

Surprise, it was 20 minutes ago.  This day phase was a no-lynch. 

OK seriously I have no idea when the deadline is because I'm in Japan and I don't know what zone Rawr is in T__T  Well if it's two hours that's enough time to go try and figure out Oarfish's posts again. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Rawr = Huh What.  Six hours sleep plus I got up early to be here.  Come on coffee, go go go. 

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

you guys have 2 hours, 32 minutes

[Refa]

Serela's least likely of all of us to be nightkilled since everyone knows if Serela survives to LYLO, the scum wins.

As in, because she's really good at playing scum or because he's really bad at lynching scum?

The other thing that looks interesting is that Elie / Refa have both posted a bunch so I wonder if they have some sort of meta handle on each other at this point? Just a quick calm summary of their play vs what you'd expect from a town / scum slot.

Elie's defense plays to his town meta (basically the difference is in tone and that he takes the time to respond to each and every point whereas his defense as scum is either nonexistent/a lot lazier), but his scumhunting/earlier levels of activity (mostly D1 and earlier D2) is more like his scum meta (picking apart a few scummier points over analyzing all of the relevant content and coming to a decision, and he generally posts way less as scum, although part of that could just be due to the lower level of activity in this game overall which is why I haven't really called him out on it)...Hence why I'm so conflicted.

I'd really like to see Oarfish/Serela's lists of 'who scum wants to kill' to 'least' before the phase is over.  And yes, it will help me decide where to vote.

Can you explain what you got out of these lists (I know you already explained the purpose of the lists, but I don't remember you actually getting any reads off of them unless they got lost in the shuffle)?  Like, I read their lists, but I couldn't get any reads off of them myself.

NNR: Let's say someone forced you to entertain the possibility that Oarfish is Town.  Who are your picks for Rawr's 2 scumbuddies?
BT: same question, assuming you even read this post.

You didn't ask me this, but I figure this is something I should answer anyways since I am voting you.  I'd say two of BT/Elieson/Serela, with different combinations that don't make sense as scumbuddies (off the top of my head, I can't see a BT/Serela scumteam).

My immediate gut thought is Serela and one of Elieson/Shadoweh. From rereading Shadoweh and Elieson, though, my money is going down on Shadoweh.

Can you explain your issues with Shadoweh (as well as other people who are scumreading her, I suppose)?  I thought she was pretty obviously town, so all of these unexplained scumreads are well, frustrating because I'm not sure if I've missing something here or she's playing to her scum meta or what.

From Ellie's d2 I came to that conclusion :T I mean it's not that he can't be good since this is a very small frame of reference but the guy sat around doing nothing the whole day voting BT for hammering 5 minutes before deadline.

Generally Elie is considered average at worst, FWIW.  Also like every SF player, he's worse as scum than as town.

also I feel like I need to apologize for forgetting about Refa after realizing how much he's posted and how much effort he's clearly put into the game? It's probably just because he hasn't played here before, I mean, I can barely remember my own posts much less the ones of someone I don't know

It's all good.  Usually I'm considered the opposite of forgettable though, so it's kind of funny to me that someone thinks the opposite.

OK, getting onto the Serela/BT ISO's.  My impression of BT (obviously) hasn't changed, but from my initial read of Serela's later posts I still feel somewhat confident in my earlier townread on the slot (besides a few aforementioned issues).  Oarfish > BT > Serela currently.

[O4rfish]

I don't remember anyone making a good case on Serela though. Why would I shoot Serela?

[Refa]

Um...apparently I didn't actually paste in my issues with Serela because I'm dumb.  The short of it is that whoever said she could be scumbuddies with Shadoweh (NNR, I think) had a good point (although if Serela was scum, I'd suspect Elieson over Shadoweh myself), their tone when he asked Shadoweh for help was weird considering you're not even sure on the slot yourself (and Shadoweh isn't exactly townreading you either), and uh...that's it.  It's enough to make me reread the slot's overall content (which is saying something, because I really hate ISO's, petition to ban them still in effect), but not enough to make me comfortable with a lynch on him.

[O4rfish]

But wouldn't it make a ton more sense for me to shoot who I'm voting for? What kind of person would expect me to shoot the person voting alongside me?

[Refa]

But wouldn't it make a ton more sense for me to shoot who I'm voting for? What kind of person would expect me to shoot the person voting alongside me?

That wasn't me answering you, it was a followup from my previous post.  If you're town, you can shoot whoever you want (preferably not NNR/Sky Paladin/Shadoweh though, since I'm townreading all of them and don't really have any issues with their current content).

[Sky_Paladin]

Refa

Can you explain what you got out of these lists

I wanted to establish that night hits were being made by meta rather than current game state.  SB's hit, in particular, was unexpected.  I don't think anybody other than I were town reading SB, yet Serela pulled this up as the basis for SB being hit. 

I felt that there would be scum amongst NNR/Oarfish/Serela, and if so, they would have knowledge of the scum teams plan and I might see evidence of scum intent when they made their list of who-would-die-and-why.  Of the three, Serela and Oarfish gave the flakiest responses, with Serela completely missing Mitsuki/Vhaltz, and Oarfish being completely unable to answer in a coherent way. 

Oarfish's game has been basically terrible.  His sign-out comment/vanish, indecipherable spread sheets and seemingly random gibberish confuses the hell out of me.  I can't pick between him and Serela, but I doubt they are both scum.  I could see a Serela/Shadoweh team. 

Eli has basically dropped off my radar and I should go review her again. 

[Serela]

As in, because she's really good at playing scum or because he's really bad at lynching scum?

Theoretically I do pretty well, I think! I also rarely get lynched unless I'm actually scum. (Lately my scum record's been pretty high too :D) And I next to never get nightkilled either, because of... reasons... >_>;;

...I do as well as you could expect someone to, before lylo, but somehow, once I'm in lylo (which is most of the games I'm in that reach lylo at all) things never go right for town... and in every unique situation somehow it usually ends up being my fault in an overly ridiculous way... >.>;;; Town's only won like, two lylos I've been in but I've probably been in 15+? Those are... pretty skewed numbers <.< And the first 10-ish are probably in a row.

their tone when he asked Shadoweh for help was weird considering you're not even sure on the slot yourself (and Shadoweh isn't exactly townreading you either)

Me and Shadoweh are buddies :D Or at least she treats me pleasantly and knows my meta pretty well? ;_; She was townreading me earlier, I think I recall her saying things that took as such into doubt but she's not like the others who have me pegged as one out of three possible culprits for the last two scum..

I don't think anybody other than I were town reading SB, yet Serela pulled this up as the basis for SB being hit. 

Huh? I'm pretty sure there was a lot of people townreading SB, though.

re:cases on Serela, I feel that I've pretty thoroughly deconstructed all the ones that have been brought up against me, but SkyPal thinks I was lying about my votes on D1 (it's a long story if you don't remember) and I guess the others might be PoE? I don't really recall any reasons from NNR, for example. He's on a phone right now, though, so.

[O4rfish]

Skypal, you haven't considered the possibility that my answer didn't fit your expected return because I'm not actually scum?  I answered the question as best I could, and it's frustrating for me to see you describe my answer as "obfuscating" when your question was vague to begin with.

[Serela]

Anyway the cool thing about vig shots and vengeful kills are that you're the only one whose opinion matters, and you can kill whoever you think is the scum no matter what the other weirdos say :D In the case of a vengeful, they can't even lynch you for it! Hee

[NekoNekoRex]

But wouldn't it make a ton more sense for me to shoot who I'm voting for? What kind of person would expect me to shoot the person voting alongside me?

Hint: It's because you're on a wagon with scum.

Also your reads have been basically terrible this game and I wouldn't trust you with a vig if I could help it, but I can't and you need to die at some point before LYLO because you are scummy as hell.

[NekoNekoRex]

You know, in the assumption you aren't scum, which I fully expect you to be.

[O4rfish]

From my perspective, you calling me scum does not make me think highly of your scumdar. Do you have something to back up your assertion that the players also on the wagon I'm on are scum?

[NekoNekoRex]

Look I have literally tunneled you the entire game as scum, if you haven't seen the reasons I have presented on you, you are never going to.

[Sky_Paladin]

BT's ISO basically reads "Let's kill Oarfish."

I could consider going through with a BT lynch because BT is likely to shoot Oarfish.  And I think Oarfish is scum. 

My main issue with this is that BT is essentially a lurker lynch. 

I mean, look at these votes. 

Oarfish
vote
Oarfish doesn't say why they're voting in their vote post, but the one before it says:

My scumreads are BT for meta, Elie for a bland sort of scumminess, and NNR because I just can't see Town tunneling this hard with so little content.
I'd probably shoot BT just because vig->lurker.

So I want to know what meta Oarfish wants BT dead for since apparently it's nothing to do with this game - and partly why I flagged Oarfish as scummy for his responses to my question on meta-deaths on Shrine Maiden. 
I also don't like that Oarfish's posts this day seem to be begging the question, like "What kind of person would expect me to shoot the person voting alongside me?" rather than actively driving discussion/scumhunting. 
Basically, this is a lurker lynch, and not "I see BT as scum." 

Shadoweh
Vote
Shadoweh is the more consistent of the three.  Her vote was cast basically from day 3, when she solo-voted BT during the Zak mislynch.  This day phase she hasn't really restated it clearly or made any effort to actually push it though. 
I can at least consider Shadoweh's vote as real. 

Serela
Vote

Ellie's post made me realize I don't want him in control of the town vengeful if he flips town. Sorry!

If BT flips scum, that's awesome, but if he flips town I can still trust the vig shot is in good hands.

^^Essentially a lurker lynch.  Yet just before then, Serela stated "I'd be shooting between the people I've been talking about wanting lynched, of course. BT/Ellie/Shadoweh", but Serela has no qualms voting alongside Shadoweh. 
Serela mentions in her posts intent to read BT but never brings up any specific reason for why she's voting BT.  It basically looks like a questionable lurker lynch dressed up as POE. 

***

So, on the BT wagon, I see one semi-plausible-but-not-updated-in-forever-vote (Shadoweh), one BT-won't-vig-me-vote (Serela) and one lurker lynch (Oarfish).  I'm not particularly satisfied with any of these votes and that's why I think the wagon has scum in it. 

[Shadoweh]

Hi. I would still like to lynch the only person who hasn't posted while everyone's been having their spam flipouts. You might not have noticed? It's still Beetee. He'll either die or get to shoot like he's special, it'd be great. :> If I stop voting him will it convince you all I'm scum leaving my partner's wagon so you all go there?

I wouldn't be against an Elie flash. The more I think about it the more his dismissiveness of me for being a mean ol witch bothers me. Refusing to give death reads isn't a scumtell and twisting it that way and tunneling me all day is etc.

Serela I keep going back and forth on you because you keep doing THINGS. You're right that I don't want to lynch you. As much as you keep thinging repeatedly.

[Serela]

The specific reasons are that there's no reason to really think he's town from his play (which for most other people, there -is- by now, whether from play or interactions, etc), and he's a lurker, and those two combined make it very possible he's scum so

It's not like a lurker lynch is a bad lynch! Let's be honest here, lynching Shadoweh is sort of a lurker lynch too. And that's not just me, she's alongside me and o4rfish in all these proposed scumteams.

cut by HI SHADOWEH WE'VE GOT 45 MINUTES yes I'm a thing I know ;_;

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

Day 4.Who Cares - Votals
BT (3) - Shadoweh, Serela, O4rfish
O4rfish (2) - Refa, BT
Serela (2) - NekoRex, Sky_Paladin
Shadoweh (1) - Elieson
Not Voting:  None!

You have 40 minutes remaining in the day. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Shadoweh]

It's really hard to update a vote on someone who isn't posting. That's kind of the point of lurking. His one post today has one read hint his counterwagon and questions with no reply to the answers. The next update will hopefully be a flip.

I don't think this is rocket science, vote the people who were voting town and not voting scum.

Dormio (:tenshi:) - O4rfish, Zakeri, ActionDan, Sky_Paladin, SB, Refa, Mitsuki, BT (L-0!)
Dr Rawr (7) - SB, Serela, NekoRex, Bardiche, Zakeri, O4fish, Refa (L-0!)
Sage Zakeri (6): BT, O4rfish, Serela, NekoNekoRex, Elieson, SB (L-0!)

People that should have wagons: BT, Elieson
People that should be being ignored before they flip: EVERYONE ELSE.

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm actually looking at the Eli wagon now. 

I'm having an issue with her Zak day 3 vote.  Details inc. 

[O4rfish]

BT has a meta of lurking as scum, as seen in Awareness of Color. He is putting no effort into the game, and isn't responding to any questions anybody asks him.

[Serela]

I don't know most people's meta because I have no memory for it. O4rfish thank you <3

Can we lynch him now? Please?

[Sky_Paladin]

On day 3, Eli votes for Zak here because she couldn't get a lynch of Refa, and states Zak is 'her other scumread'. 
However, scrolling through her ISO shows that 'her other scum read' was actually yours truly, Sky. 

Well, that's about it. 

There's some other stuff like the day 1 combined push on me with Rawr/day 2 listing Serela/Rawr amongst her would not lynch read.  Ugh.

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm probably not going to go with an Eli lynch because panic consolidation wagons in the last 30 minutes are terrible. 

For the same reason, Shadoweh is off the table for me.  I'd prefer to lynch between Serela/Oarfish.  If there's no other choice I'll hammer BT. 

[O4rfish]

O4rfish: Couldn't handle SkyPaladin's questionairre, and that just doesn't add up. I wouldn't expect these two to be of the same alignment

Does anyone besides Skypal think this is true?

[Serela]

But didn't you provide a comprehensive answer? :S

[Serela]

wait did skypal ask you multiple different questions, I was just thinking of the nightkill priority thing

[Sky_Paladin]

I just wanted a straight list of who you thought, from a meta perspective, the most likely night kill order was.