Author Topic: You Don't Know the Setup Mafia - Game Over! (Read 32710 times)

Conqueror · « **Reply #450 on:** August 22, 2013, 10:19:57 PM »

although that makes me sad because i had vhaltzosuki/cf7 as my two strongest town reads at the end of the night derp

sk hunting too hard

BT · « **Reply #451 on:** August 22, 2013, 10:20:46 PM »

I'll be really angry if we're right and they're it because I was really going to let them go despite so much cringeworthy reactionary survivalist behavior

BT · « **Reply #452 on:** August 22, 2013, 10:22:06 PM »

this marks 8 posts without content

it's okay though, we haven't broken a record yet

BT · « **Reply #453 on:** August 22, 2013, 10:22:27 PM »

8 posts but also 8 pages*

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #454 on:** August 23, 2013, 12:22:01 AM »

Back from arcade. Vhaltz/Mitsuki claiming doc could be explained if it was given to them as a fakeclaim. I'm really inclined to just lynch Polly though, Bodyguard is a super easy scumclaim and I trust Vhaltsuki's word as a protective role over his.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #455 on:** August 23, 2013, 12:23:55 AM »

also, 2docs is better balanced than 2docs+bg due to numbers reasons. bg can even prevent crossfire!!

but either lynch is good rn.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #456 on:** August 23, 2013, 12:24:11 AM »

1doc+bg, sorry.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #457 on:** August 23, 2013, 01:05:56 AM »

shit I guess this means I shouls start writing flavor for my setup. LT ME KNOW IF YOU GUYS NEED ME FOR ANYTHING

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #458 on:** August 23, 2013, 07:57:17 AM »

im mafia

PX · « **Reply #459 on:** August 23, 2013, 08:06:33 AM »

shhh, that was supposed to be a secret

Vhaltz · « **Reply #460 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:03:30 AM »

Quote from: Conqueror on August 22, 2013, 10:17:29 PM

i dont think polly would clear shadoweh/dormio the way he did here as scum. i mean it's possible as a HAIL MARY gambit but i think it's more likely he'd just go :effort:, claim vt, and then get steamrolled by all the remaining power roles because why bother?

Except it doesn't make any sense that he'd CC Vanilla?

Just think about it, it was very likely that there was a vig whether from the start of the game or created by the gunsmith variant that gives out guns. Which means this isn't close to true LyLo as soon as the vig realizes he shouldn't shoot. This means town has two lynches left, and counterclaiming VT means outing one of the two VT claims as scum, making the game autopilot lynching both claims for the win.

However, counterclaiming us by throwing in another weak doc into the setup he could somehow BS his way into getting us lynched today and play paranoia in LyLo with BT/Conq. Claiming something other than vanilla is the only way he'd have to survive as an SK.

BT · « **Reply #461 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:07:56 AM »

no I agree, the whole "wouldn't clear Shadormio" thing is stupid and you/Shadoweh are right

though, hey, what do you think should be our course of action? do you think it's polly? what if we lynch him and it's not?

Vhaltz · « **Reply #462 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:12:28 AM »

At this point I'm heavily convinced that Polaris is the last scum because BT and Shadormio are clear, Mitsuki has her first townread ever on Huhwhat and I also find him much townier than Conq.

Polaris' slot is horribly empty content-wise. All he's done is establish priorities among wagons in D1 and there's no comments on the rest of the game which means he could coast by with no scumhunting, the looming suspicions on ourselves are only there because we actually posted content to go through and MotK dislikes lynching the contentless over targets with content that they can rationalize as scummy.

##Vote: Polaris

I'd offer ourselves as a mislynch for game win but being 80%-ish sure about Hw/Conq being town I'd rather not :effort: and lynch Polaris now. Worst case scenario Polaris isn't scum (which is unlikely because Conq outed a cop inno on a slot he couldn't possibly know would be confirmed town later, right after day start, which is a big gamble if he's scum) and we go onto LyLo with Shadormio/BT and Conq to have the slapfight of our lives. I guess we'll lose if it happens but hell it's best to try.

Vhaltz · « **Reply #463 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:16:17 AM »

Quote from: Vhaltzotsuki on August 23, 2013, 10:12:28 AM

and I also find him much townier than Conq.

Meaning Huhwhat

I mean otherwise he's spent the earlier part of D2 messing with Conq and trying to get him to lose because the investigative gunsmith + cop was suspicious for a while unless you consider that the gunsmith could get a guilty on the Investigative Immune SK while the cop couldn't. Plus vig claim by BT makes it likelier that there's a cop/gunsmith combo because gunsmith could get a fake guilty on the vig and cop could get a fake inno on the SK.

Mitsuki · « **Reply #464 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:17:00 AM »

Note that my non-townreads on HW have always been right.
Still, I can't say I'm totally sure.

(Vhaltz was posting what I think because I couldn't find my mothers laptop and connecting all the cables to my computer took its time)

BT · « **Reply #465 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:18:43 AM »

btw here's my theory:

assuming nnr's role was the mafiascum variant, town has a regular cop and a special cop, so it'd actually be fine for them to have a regular doc and a special doc, granted I still have no idea what SB's variant did

I think this might be it because a SK doc sounds silly, what would be its selling point? one SK had utility against the vig, the other had utility against the cop, makes sense that the last one'd have utility against the doc like say strongman kills

and I say "cop" and "doc" and not "cops" and "docs" because actually I think I figured out it out - SB was an anti-strongman doc and NNR was an anti-godfather cop, and Conq/VM are the nerfed versions

(having a strongman vig to counter the bulletproof SK would probably be too much kills in one game so yeah)

cut okay so huhwhat reads town right now and conq doesn't, gotcha :v you need to play with huhwhat some more, ask shadoweh all about it

this is a :theory: by the way so don't give it too much thought - we should lynch both VM and polly anyway and I'm not sure how much time Polly had to think up that fakeclaim

Shadoweh · « **Reply #466 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:25:06 AM »

I don't know what gunsmith variant you guys keep talking about, but a giving gun action wouldn't have resolved until the night ended. There's a vig, an sk, and one sk left, we have the three kills accounted for. We have the technology.

HUH WHAT IS ALWAYS TOWN HE TOLD ME SO ESPECIALLY IN THE HYDRA QT

Vhaltz · « **Reply #467 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:31:39 AM »

I'm aware that everybody happens to read Hw as town, precisely the reason why we're making a big deal about the Hw reading town thing is because we've generally caught him as scum in all spectator games and reads of earlier games we've read through where he was scum (Mitsuki does so quicker than I do, so the townread on Hw is very odd if they end up being scum).
Because if someone has a reputation for always reading town it's worth putting effort into finding out how to scumtell them.

I say lynch polly first anyway for game end because if Conq/Hw are the last scum their gamble paid off way too well.

We also theorized that the last scum has strongman, which makes it likely that SB was an OP doc variant, but it didn't make sense earlier because 3 deaths meant there was either 3 killing roles + vig was overkill unlikely (lol) and the kevorkian doctor theory made sense as well.

@Shadoweh The likely gunsmith variant in the setup now is the one on mafiascum wiki (investigates who owns a gun, which would turn up guilty results for SKs and the vig). Before the BT vig claim it was likely that it was the other one (the one that hands out guns).

Vhaltz · « **Reply #468 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:35:28 AM »

I will also parrot Hw regarding the setup balance because seriously, Anti-strongman doc + bodyguard doesn't stop enough kills to make sense in a 3scum + vig setup.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #469 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:43:26 AM »

hMM. Two cop roles, two doc roles, one vig, and innocent comfirmed beautiful the strongest townie vs team Badass. I think we should lynch Conq because that would definitely give me another night and day phase to work on my flavor.

...Or we could lynch Polaris I guess. A bodyguard has nearly a 50% chance of dying Night 1 if all the killing roles make it and the chances of it actually hitting town are pretty bad.

Conqueror · « **Reply #470 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:44:15 AM »

whooo ~*balance*~

Quote from: Vhaltzotsuki on August 23, 2013, 10:03:30 AM

Except it doesn't make any sense that he'd CC Vanilla?

Just think about it, it was very likely that there was a vig whether from the start of the game or created by the gunsmith variant that gives out guns. Which means this isn't close to true LyLo as soon as the vig realizes he shouldn't shoot. This means town has two lynches left, and counterclaiming VT means outing one of the two VT claims as scum, making the game autopilot lynching both claims for the win.

However, counterclaiming us by throwing in another weak doc into the setup he could somehow BS his way into getting us lynched today and play paranoia in LyLo with BT/Conq. Claiming something other than vanilla is the only way he'd have to survive as an SK.

from a purely logical standpoint claiming vt doesnt make autolynching polaris/shadormio the winning play (setup says "at least one vt"), but from a practical standpoint what would have happened is that we would have lynched polaris today instead of him being able to push vhaltzosuki as an alternate lynch. so i guess you're right in a way.

but that does dispel my reasons for polly not being scum and overall i've thought the vhaltz/mitsuki slot to be more town (AND THIS MEANS VALIDON SCUM GOT CAUGHT ON ONE POST AWWW YEAH) so it's probably polly ?\_(ツ)_/?

although vhaltz why would you offer yourself as a mislynch for game win if you think it's polaris and aren't completely sure about me/hw/px being town

i will say that reading huhwhat as town is NOT ALLOWED, you're supposed to get the townreads on me because my scumgame sucks >:<<<<<<

Conqueror · « **Reply #471 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:46:10 AM »

Quote from: Shadoweh on August 23, 2013, 10:43:26 AM

I think we should lynch Conq because that would definitely give me another night and day phase to work on my flavor.

fffffff :V

Isn't it great, Shadoweh? You got the only VT in the game, except when people figure out the setup it's like you're the innocent child!

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #472 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:48:51 AM »

if it makes you reconsider your read on scum!conq part of the reason im shitposting this game is because i know itll cause people to read me as town

BT · « **Reply #473 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:48:59 AM »

okay yeah

let's play overkill hangmafia in the meantime because it's pointless hammering before dan's here (we're allowed to talk during twilight ftr but eh)

_________     _________     _________
| |        | |        | |
| 0        | 0        | 0
| /|     | /|     | /|
| /         | /         | /
|        |        |

_ _ _ _ _ _

BT · « **Reply #474 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:49:11 AM »

this looked great in the preview

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #475 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:49:15 AM »

but no seriously polly is scum, no real reason to delay.....

Vhaltz · « **Reply #476 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:50:36 AM »

Quote from: Shadoweh on August 23, 2013, 10:25:06 AM

I don't know what gunsmith variant you guys keep talking about, but a giving gun action wouldn't have resolved until the night ended. There's a vig, an sk, and one sk left, we have the three kills accounted for. We have the technology.

If I'm not understanding this wrong you saying there's more scum that 1 left, Shadoweh? what is going on in your head?

Setup is either this if Polly's lying:
1 Investigative immune SK
1 Bulletproof SK
1

scum (likely strongman)
1 Vig
1 Investigative gunsmith
1 Cop
1 VT
1 Anti-strongman Doc
1 Doc

Or this if we're lying:
1 Investigative immune SK
1 Bulletproof SK
1

scum (likely strongman)
1 Vig
1 Investigative gunsmith
1 Cop
1 VT
1 Anti-strongman Doc
1 Bodyguard

Alternatively if Polly doesn't flip scum it could be 3 protective roles (Anti-strongman doc, regular doc and bodyguard) and a single investigation role (gunsmith) but that would be very weird and like I've said repeatedly I don't think Conq/Hw are scum.

@Conq precisely I said I wouldn't offer ourselves as a mislynch, I said we'd at least try. I just hit the realization that it's unlikely that town can win whatever we do in LyLo if Polaris ends up being town and your gambit went that great as scum.

Quote

from a purely logical standpoint claiming vt doesnt make autolynching polaris/shadormio the winning play (setup says "at least one vt"), but from a practical standpoint what would have happened is that we would have lynched polaris today instead of him being able to push vhaltzosuki as an alternate lynch. so i guess you're right in a way.

This is true though I was completely set on a setup with a single VT.

Vhaltz · « **Reply #477 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:50:53 AM »

Trillion cuts btw

BT · « **Reply #478 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:51:23 AM »

Quote from: Sekibaniki♂ on August 23, 2013, 10:48:51 AM

if it makes you reconsider your read on scum!conq part of the reason im shitposting this game is because i know itll cause people to read me as town

shitposting makes me read you as scum though

Conqueror · « **Reply #479 on:** August 23, 2013, 10:51:28 AM »

Quote from: Sekibaniki♂ on August 23, 2013, 10:48:51 AM

if it makes you reconsider your read on scum!conq part of the reason im shitposting this game is because i know itll cause people to read me as town

you bastard

anyway

##vote polaris