Author Topic: Gensokyo Holy War Mafia (Game Over) (Read 50317 times)

Edible · « **Reply #810 on:** April 14, 2013, 04:18:50 AM »

I somehow doubt he watched Schezo, so here's the deal.

Fullclaim time, I believe.

We have three confirmed town players:

1) Raikaria. Confirmed because we know there's a track/watch role due to Serela's ability and no one has counterclaimed.

2) Dormio. Cleared via Raikaria's tracking clear earlier.

3) Myself. Cleared due to Zakeri.

We have three unconfirmed players:

A) Zakeri. Not confirmed, unfortunately. Sorry Zak, just going by facts here <_<. If he's actually scum then I'm not confirmed anymore, but let's hold off on that discussion for now.

B) BT. Alive due to solid content and hard pursuit on Serela.

C) Polaris. Alive due to hard pursuit on Serela and he, uh, 'won' the Raitaki 1v1 yesterday >_>

We have two major questions that can be answered by a fullclaim.

1) Who is the doctor? We know there is a doctor due to Serela's role, applying a similar logic from the Raikaria clear.

2) How did Shadoweh die? Whether it's a nightvig that deigned not to counterclaim Serela, a PGO, a SK or similar third-party role, or a scum gambit - we can discern the answer to this question with a claim (or lack thereof).

Once everyone has claimed, I believe we can move forward with today's analysis.

For obvious reasons BT and Polaris need to claim first. Raikaria and Zakeri have already claimed, and Dormio and I are effectively cleared so we will claim last (unless someone has an objection).

WHMZakeri · « **Reply #811 on:** April 14, 2013, 04:25:03 AM »

I can't think of an objection.

Polaris · « **Reply #812 on:** April 14, 2013, 04:27:21 AM »

I am the vig that shot Shadoweh.

I am Kanako Yasaka, Town Bookee (whatever a bookee is? google turns up nothing). During the night, I can predict the following day's lynch, and if I predict correctly, I gain a vig to use the next night.

On N1, I predicted Serela to be lynched. Since we lynched him D2, I got a vig which I used to shoot Shadoweh as per BT's hunch, plus my own belief that Shadoweh was under the radar the entire game which was suspicious. I naturally didn't counterclaim Serela because I didn't see the need to, seeing as he was headed towards being lynched anyway. I did mention that I didn't believe Serela's claim, if that helps any.

On N2 I predicted Lecithul and on N3 (last night) I predicted Edible, so no vigs for me for now >_> Hurray for predicting all the cop clears.

My role flavor is that I will get a boost in faith whenever I get a correct prediction, and I can transmogrify this faith into power.

I think that covered everything.

Edible · « **Reply #813 on:** April 14, 2013, 04:32:27 AM »

Bookie, perhaps? An moneychanger traditionally responsible for managing bets on behalf of one or more clients. The name meshes well with the claim.

That's one claim out of the way, which leaves BT.

BT · « **Reply #814 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:25:53 AM »

VT, with no flavor whatsoever.

Bookie, as seen from the discussion, isn't the likeliest of *town* roles, though at the same time IF Polly is scum he's both a superbusser and there's an ITP who shot Pesco. It's pretty obvious at this point that if there's an ITP it's probably Polly, which means he gets lynched either today or tomorrow.

I'm forced to bring up the possibility of godfathers. I don't think Zakeri is scum (See D1 Serela). Dormio is likely town due to similar reasons (Serela's D2 counterwagon), which admittedly isn't beyond a Dormio-Serela-Shadoweh scumteam but eh.

Eh.

BT · « **Reply #815 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:30:15 AM »

I believe I covered Serela's overreaction to Raikaria on D2, which makes me think NotScum. Eddie's voting patterns and lack of real town feel for the majority of the game make him the likely candidate here. I'll go over VCs and posts soonish.

BT · « **Reply #816 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:37:01 AM »

I was going to start talking about possible night actions (why didn't you cop Polly, Zak?) but then I remembered massclaim isn't over.

BT · « **Reply #817 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:39:14 AM »

Forgot about Raikaria's point that Dormio isn't scum because he didn't use anything while roleblocker Shadoweh probably didn't do the killing. More town points here.

Edible · « **Reply #818 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:44:08 AM »

BT: Thanks.

As for my claim: Zak's clear is welcome, but largely unneeded as I am the doctor.

Specifically, role name is Guardian. For self-explanatory reasons I would like to leave the specifics of my role obscured, but I will happily divulge them in the unlikely event that I'm a potential lynch candidate today.

Protects in order were:

N1: BT
N2: Zak
N3: Raikaria

Due to the nature of the game and Serela's role I have determined that either my N1 or N2 blocks were successful.

BT · « **Reply #819 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:49:24 AM »

Oh, there we go. (I think that's everyone, too.)

Theoretically, we have a cop, another info role, a doctor and a bookie. This isn't impossible but it feels a BIT strong too.

I THINK it's okay to clear Edible because, like he said, a kill was blocked.

Polaris · « **Reply #820 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:49:53 AM »

re: NK analysis I am convinced that Serela used a delay-kill on Pesco because killing Pesco on N2 makes no sense at all, so I am going to say that the successful protect was probably the one on zak.

re: zak's cop choices has everyone forgotten about the anti-moriya shrine cop restrictions :v raikaria forgot about it on d3 too.

re: ITP there is none

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #821 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:50:24 AM »

Quote from: Momiji Inubashiri on April 09, 2013, 12:07:38 PM

Anyway, VT claim etc.

:derp:

Polaris · « **Reply #822 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:51:16 AM »

or, well, I can't definitively say that we don't have a survivor but I'm certain there is no serial killer >_>

BT · « **Reply #823 on:** April 14, 2013, 05:54:41 AM »

Oh, right, restrictions. This setup became slightly more possible outside of whatever Edible's thing might be.

APPARENTLY we're at 6 players and not 7. Way to go OP. With Dormio/Polly/Zak/Raikaria/Edible/BT it's, err...

Let's assume that there's no SK. Who would even be scum? Zak? I actually don't find a NK on Pesco N2 that weird considering he was putting up alright contribution, based his vote on Serela well and was a good doc-probably-won't-get-this choice.

Polaris · « **Reply #824 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:01:18 AM »

Well I still think scum killing Pesco N1 makes a whole lot more sense than killing him N2 :derp:

god I literally can't think of who could be scum without going to conspiracy theory levels of speculation

BT · « **Reply #825 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:03:25 AM »

Why's killing him N1 make more sense than killing him N2?

Edible · « **Reply #826 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:06:34 AM »

Dormio, any flavor in your VT role? Just curious. <_<

Quote from: BT on April 14, 2013, 05:54:41 AM

APPARENTLY we're at 6 players and not 7. Way to go OP.

Yeah, this threw me off too.

Frankly, I'm almost 100% sure the scum's between you and Zak, just going purely by the available facts. Polaris' alignment is mostly irrelevant in this regard, as he's taken credit for the Shadoweh kill, he's either town-aligned or third party and therefore cannot be scum (barring hilarious nonsense). The rest of us are cleared.

While that therefore means a town victory is in the bag as we have two more lynches at the minimum (or three if I get another protect off), I'd rather do what we can to lynch scum today.

Polaris · « **Reply #827 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:07:08 AM »

well, like, I can really imagine serela/shadoweh/scum X being scared of pesco during N1 and choosing to get rid of him early on, and by the time it got to N2 there was a cop (zak) and cop-cleared town (schezo) that they could easily have shot instead (and they chose to shoot Zak `_`)

BT · « **Reply #828 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:13:51 AM »

I guess that makes sense. TBH it's much more likely that they used up the poison on N1 anyway, and I almost forgot that Shadoweh targeted Serela N1 (outside of Raikaria lying). But if they really did kill Zak on N2 we're fucked because, well, I'm town.

...If Zak is town then there's SOMETHING stupid happening.

Polaris · « **Reply #829 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:15:38 AM »

Honestly I am inclined to believe the last scum is Dormio <_> mainly by process of elimination.

##Vote: Dormio

BT · « **Reply #830 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:19:41 AM »

IF BT IS SCUM
He's not. You guys can put together the scenario here - I'd rather look at the others.

IF EDIBLE IS SCUM
Through the claimed roles town has no means to block a kill besides what he claimed. I don't think it's physically possible for him to be scum, shenanigans included.

IF POLLY IS SCUM
...actually, I think this is it. Assuming Pesco was the N1 Poison target, they could have set it up so that Polly looked like a town vig when he shot Shadoweh as scum. See... I think it was, uh, Affinity's game. Welcome to the Something Something!.

HRM.

Polaris · « **Reply #831 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:20:49 AM »

^ uh are you being serious

BT · « **Reply #832 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:22:34 AM »

Not much at this point makes much sense and I think I've already called every living player at this point town for :reasons:. If I'm right, your scumteam wasn't in the best of shapes at all so it's not shot-out-the-window impossible. How is it Dormio?

Polaris · « **Reply #833 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:22:49 AM »

mfw scum killing scum as a gambit actually happened. wow.

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #834 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:24:13 AM »

Quote from: Edible on April 14, 2013, 06:06:34 AM

Dormio, any flavor in your VT role? Just curious. <_<

None whatsoever.

Also, I dunno, scum shooting themselves is pretty out there. I'm still thinking.

Polaris · « **Reply #835 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:30:45 AM »

This suddenly feels like a giant contrived murder mystery case :V clearly we should pull an umineko and end the game here, leaving a mystery with no clear answer and allowing everyone to come up with their own theories about who is the culprit.

Edible · « **Reply #836 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:36:01 AM »

I guess Dormio could still technically be scum, though it would require Shadoweh to send in the N2 kill instead of using either of her fancy abilities that night. Not entirely outside of the range of possibilities, but would require a lot of bizarre coincidences, including two Shinto scum.

I'm more likely to believe it's BT or Zak.

Since BT missed these two:

IF BT IS SCUM
N2 kill was blocked, Serela did use poison. BT is KING BUS HONCHO and hangs out with Affinity all day.

IF ZAK IS SCUM
N1 kill was blocked; it makes no sense using poison when you can use janitor on BT, who was looking pretty obvtown at that stage. Claiming cop is a traditional move for a scum about to get lynched.

...

Wait a minute.

Shadoweh was a roleblocker and still could have sent in an action N2. Since at least one other scum was alive they could have sent in the kill and she could have... roleblocked cop!Zakeri... but didn't... <_<

Zaaaaaak, is there something you're not telling us? <3

BT · « **Reply #837 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:39:21 AM »

JoaKills, Roleblocker Psycho Person and Mystery Role X seems to be the scumteam's selection of roles. Third's probably an info role, then? Zak/Raikaria?

Rai, why'd you use the Tracker on Shadoweh N1?

cut by A GOOD POINT. We're assuming Shadoweh used the roleblock on N2 without thinking who the roleblock target is.

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #838 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:46:57 AM »

Quote from: Polaris on April 14, 2013, 06:30:45 AM

This suddenly feels like a giant contrived murder mystery case :V clearly we should pull an umineko and end the game here, leaving a mystery with no clear answer and allowing everyone to come up with their own theories about who is the culprit.

This is clearly a scumclaim.

##Vote Zakeri

Edible · « **Reply #839 on:** April 14, 2013, 06:47:37 AM »

Further ruleset analysis indicates that scum were assigned randomly irrespective of religion. Why, then, would a cop role have the inability to investigate an entire religion when it could theoretically be a bastard role?

That's all setup speculation and mostly irrelevant, of course.

One more thing - Zak, can you tell us specifically how the phrasing of your role indicates alignment?