Magical Madness Mafia Day 5!

[capt. h]

How long do you want to wait?

Zak isn't exactly the most frequent poster.

[WHMZakeri]

I'm here
I spent all day helping people move stuff, as oppose to reading the game.

Anyway, I'm Akemi Homerun. The Timestop ability bard Claimed I had basically just extended deadline by 12 hours. You can't unvote nor vote during the time, nor use rolepowers, but everything resumes as it was after the 12 hours are up.

I also have a power called Reset. I can send in the PM whenever I want, and when the day ends either due to deadline or lynch, instead of going to the next night phase, it goes back to the current day phase. I wasn't told exactly what would happen if I used the power.

I can only use both abilities once, and I haven't had a reason to use either of them yet.

[WHMZakeri]

oh, and don't worry about me lurking anymore, since I'm under threat of modkill now.

[capt. h]

That's everyone.

Alright, he's what I'd like to know:

LLD, I'd like to know why you didn't claim your flavor. Bardiche made flavor important.

Affinity, I'd like to know what a "tickle" is, and naturally I'd like to see your cases.

Chaore, when you tell us who you protected I want to know if you knew you were successful Night 1, and I'd like to know why you didn't protect Bardiche last night.

Zakeri, I notice you neither stopped time on day 1 when there were no large wagons and a significant chance of no lynch, nor did you claim when Bardiche asked about you on day 1. Why?



K, here's what bothers me.

Dormio is pretty much confirmed bullet proof, Zak's role is confirmable, and Chaore explains the final missing NK on N1. Which leaves a scum sourced letter to the mod unaccounted for. Even if that letter came from Dormio, I still have a town read on Zak and I haven't seen an explanation for the missing NK other than Chaore's.

Of Dormio, Affinity, and LLD:

YJ lurking was bad, but not enough information. But LLD needs to start posting up a storm. Because town LLD posts up a storm and has lots of opinions and is always the center of attention. And I've seen scum LLD get modkilled for inactivity. So I need her post reads and scum hunt a storm. However, I still think she's the most likely to be townie, partially because of how she helped YJ target Dan.

I brought up my criticisms of Affinity's predecessor here. I did not have enough information to make a proper judgement then, so I would like Affinity to post a lot of reads and thoughts and be active. Since I think one of them is lying about their role and I have a somewhat town read on LLD, I think he is most likely to be scum. ##FoS: Affinity

My crtitism of Dormio's tunneling yesterday remains valid. Everyone he had a town read on died, and Chaore was the only player he had a scum read on. There is 2 scum; so I want Dormio to start having opinions on people not named Chaore. My second pick for scum.

[Chaore]

Opinions will come a bit later than I expected. It just occurs to me I've literally gotten all of 4 hours of sleep and my body and brain feel like lead. I can answer your questions and claim targets though.

Anyway, No, I didn't know that my night action succeeded beyond being uninterrupted. I also protected Huhwhat. So basically I didn't have any confirmation about the magical third kill actually existing and in fact I'd literally have to already assume Huhwhat was town and shot to assume it was even possible he was town.

N2 I protected Bardiche after almost protecting Huhwhat. I'm still kinda sore about that, but it's important because PX is a blabbermouth and pretty much confirmed my protect would've worked. Which is handy as it confirms something (atleast to me) that makes last night's result more realistic.

Last night, I did actually protect Bardiche. I was unhampered and my protect did go through. He as you can see, died anyway. I'm going to guess scum has a one-shot piercing ability in conjunction with what PX blabbed about with N2. It makes sense they'd save it for late game as well, and Bard was probably the perfect target to use it on.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

##FoS Chaore
I believe that everything I said yesterday still stands in regards to Chaore.

As for who the other scum is, I want to see posts from Affinity and LLD before I make my judgement.
Preferably posts involving their opinions of every living player and the major events of D1/2/3.

[Affinity]

I am Fairy Tickle from Majokko Tickle.  Or something.

Personally, Chaore and Dormio draw the most ire for me.  Chaore's only merit on D2 is the vote on Shadoweh, but that's the only opinion I could really divine on that day because the rest of his opinions on ActionDan (until the end), Zakeri were based on a false understanding of huhwhat's role (from what I see).  Given that he was overly reliant on role shenanigans in determining Dan's alignment without even considering his actual actions, which almost all active people were considering on D2, his D2 actions seem really damning.  I don't quite accept his defense that the NK ambiguity prevented him from giving a role-free judgment of Dan either, when he was capable of doing so on Shadoweh.  His D3 actions of defending himself stalwartly and going for Hero999 repeatedly (an easy stance to take) without giving us his opinions on other people (even on Dormio), is also pretty bad. The range of interesting opinions he had on D1 was replaced by an incorrect retreat into role shenanigans on D2 and the Hero-centered play on D3,  giving the impression of him withholding accountability, which is what scum wants to do.  Main suspect for today.

Dormio is suspicious for reasons already said, though I'm more okay with his D2 actions than most, since 'primary' and 'secondary' lynches don't hold much weight on a mult-lynch day.  He dances a lot on Dan though, and that mystic shift from 'I think he's town for no reason at all' to 'I don't see why anyone would not want to lynch Dan today' is still urgh.  There's the same tendency to go from having a lot of suspects with a dubious order of preference on D1 to having only one on D4.  His case on Chaore is not that bad, but why only on Chaore?  It's not as if asking RIKTER or YJ to post more would do much if you're not even posting on capt.h and Zakeri, who are there?  He's playing incredibly anti-town lately, and whether it be a lack of motivation or something, I think he's another viable lynch today.  Only reason why I like Dormio better is due to having a more interesting D3 case than Chaore.

The other three are much harder to get opinions on in my opinion.  capt.h is playing very solidly  with me nodding at almost every post, but the thing here is that for all the questioning of and opinions on people who aren't really looked at, like RIKTER, they don't really seem to have an impact on who he votes for at the end (except for his FoS today and D1).  He's also not the prime mover of the Dan case so he's not really confirmed town either, but for now I am unwilling to lynch him compared to the above.

Zakeri deserves some recognition for his D2 HW case, which was somewhat original and agreeable, but due to him disappearing at the end of D2, which was the most important period of time in the whole game, I can't really get any judgment on him, other than his defence of HW on D1 only to implicate him on D2, and his rather mediocre post-D2.  He's alignment is really a crapshoot at this point.  Same for LLD really.  Same for me too.  Therefore half of this game is a crapshoot.

##FoS: Chaore

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

I didn't think that capth and Zakeri are scum and this did not change after a reread.
Which left either YJ or Rikter via process of elimination as the last scum. And how2read those two?

[WHMZakeri]

@ Dormio and Affinity: How do you feel about Chaore's roleclaim? Does this impact your reads on him, particularly on day two?

CaptH: Day ones are nice when they're full of info, but I will always hate them while they're still going. Longer day ones also tend to lead people to lazing about since there's very little to discuss in plenty of time to do it.
I never felt the need to claim. I still thought Bard was scum day one, and even when that changed on day 2, I saw no reason to throw myself out there to support his claim.

[Affinity]

I find Chaore's roleclaim neutral in my judgment for now.  Could be a tipping factor between him and Dormio for me though.

Zakeri, who do you want lynched today?

[WHMZakeri]

25.6% Done

Capt H: I don't like how in 99 you say you don't like Polaris's case on Dan, yet in 103 you make the same case against Dan that Polaris had. You didn't make it clear afterwards what you still thought of Polaris until 179 where you just called him lurkerscum.

Dormio: You said Here that you didn't push the case on Shadoweh because "It didn't make sense in your mind." Yet you restate your entire case against Shadoweh in that post. I checked back to your post 85, here and it looks like your case hadn't changed at all. Could you tell me what parts of the case didn't make sense to you at the time?
The interactions with NeoSerela aren't quite as bad as I had thought they'd be. I thought the "Serela wasn't talking" Excuse was a huge point against Dormio, but in reading I can see that Dormio was only talking about from posts 85 (Where he made the case) to 131 where he responds to NeoSerela's new post.

Chaore doesn't have anything I want to address him with yet, but I've been noticing several interactions between him and Dan. Most notably, Dan made his vote on Chaore seem like it had substance, and that Chaore's response seemed to be to grill Shadoweh for not commenting on Dan's vote.

@Affinity: I'll get back to you on that when I finish reading, but at this point, the only person I'm even considering ruling out of my lynch list is Chaore. Even then, I still haven't figured out how to take the interactions with Dan, yet.

[capt. h]

Chaore, you claim you were debating whether or not to defend Huh What night 2. Yet in your [urlhttp://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,10806.msg718199.html#msg718199]464[/url], you tell us that you were planning to go for Huh What's jugular. Why were you considering protecting Huh What at all?

LLD, you haven't posted in over 24 hours, and the only player you have said anything about this game is myself. What are your reads on everyone else?

[capt. h]

EBWOP:

Chaore, you claim you were debating whether or not to defend Huh What night 2. Yet in your 464, you tell us that you were planning to go for Huh What's jugular. Why were you considering protecting Huh What at all?

LLD, you haven't posted in over 24 hours, and the only player you have said anything about this game is myself. What are your reads on everyone else?

[Lexicat]

If I'm being entirely honest, I have nothing else to say. I'm not motivated enough to post a full comprehensive case on Capt.H (sorry), but he's still scum.
 
However, the play for today is:
 
Vote: No Lynch

[Lexicat]

Chaore and Zakeri are town.
 
I'm town.
 
Affinity is... town by PoE, but scum if I'm wrong anywhere.
 
Dormio and Capt.H are the scum.

[capt. h]

Is there a reason you haven't claimed your flavor?

[Lexicat]

Is there a reason you haven't claimed your flavor?

Cause I'm too lazy to get my role PM? Please hold.

[Lexicat]

I am Stardust Witch Meruru from (Ore no Imouto).
 
I am a Townie Witch (or VT)

[Affinity]

On second thought, I think I will withdraw my 'mostly town' read on capt. h; his originality and agreeableness kind of won me over too much.  Main points against him that I found in a quick reread is that there are a fair bit of contradictions on D1 that he was called out for, such as accusing Shadoweh of accusing everyone when he was accusing pretty much most of them himself here (Polaris, Dormio, Serela; he said the difference was the scum pick thing but I don't buy it) and that thing that Zakeri pointed out.  Furthermore, he had only made two posts on D2, and during these two posts, all of his opinions from D1 not on Dan seems to have disappeared completely, which is strange.  More damning is the fact that in the first of the above two posts, he did not vote Dan despite finding him suspicious, only doing so in the second post when the sentiment against Dan already built up.  And even in the second post, he just takes bits and pieces of the case from Bard without giving us any personal context as to how much more or less scummy other people are. 

Compared to his active questioning D1, the change is much too large to be ignored.  Even his great D3, where he gives out a lot of questions and opinions, serve to make his D2 look worse, especially when he could have given them on D2 (such as the thing on Chaore).  My opinion on him has tanked, and I need answers to these questions.

##FoS: capt. h

On the other hand, I am having second thoughts about putting Chaore above everyone else; it seems I was a little fuzzy in my judgment of his D2 and  I would rather lynch Dormio or even capt.h now.  Chaore, did you implicitly agree with what Bard and eveyrone was saying about Dan in D2?

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

@Zakeri #608: It changes very little for me.

@Zakeri #610: At that point I was uncertain of how much of it was Shadoweh being weird, and how much of it was Shadoweh being scummy. I get confused between the two, and I was still reorganizing my thoughts on Shadoweh at the time. I did, however, fine Chaore and Serela to be scummy, which is why I wanted their lynches.

With LLD and Affinity's activities today, I think that LLD is more likely to be the remaining scum.
#613/614: "Dormio and capth are the scum, but let's no lynch."?
She makes no effort to explain why I am scum over anybody else, nor any effort to explain ANY of her reads at all.
LLD has promised us a case on capth since #510, but we still have yet to see it.

[capt. h]

I'm going to have to say that LLD has confirmed my town read on her, and I am convinced Affinity is scum.

I am unhappy with how Affinity is characterizing my day 2, considering that the day was only 24 hours long and I had only made 2 posts that day. My first post came before his confirmation came, and I wanted to hold on judging a player that could confirm himself town until after he did the confirm. Then, in my second post I stated my distrust of the mod confirm and the reasons I voted Dan. I would have liked to have made more posts, but day 2 was cut very short, and I very much dislike how Affinity is exagerrating my lack of activity.

Furthermore, I am very unhappy with how she almost immediately goes from FoSing Chaore to fence-sitting between him and Dormio here.

[Lexicat]

Let's no lynch because it's MOD CONFIRMED MYLO.
 
We have better odds in LYLO when the scum HAVE to make a kill, and confirm one of us as a townie~.

[capt. h]

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Numbers,_Part_1

An odd number of players lowers the probability of town win, when done randomly.

In the Lylo situation, I suspect it's because scum only have to sway one townie onto a town wagon instead of two.

And since I both have a strong town read on you and I know you think I'm scum, I'm strongly opposed to No-lynch, since you'd probably be the one townie. I would feel much better if scum had to convince two townies onto a town wagon instead.

[WHMZakeri]

I only made it up to day two in my reads. I'll have more tomorrow.

To add, Capt H has a less than Stellar Day 2. I only count three posts, and only one actually comments on a person's Alignment. That post is post 387, where he discounts Dan's confirm and tries to lead people away from the (now revealed) False dichotomy of the day. Another thing that makes me frown really hard at him is his Post 179 In which he says Dormio is Dormio, Dan is "Frusteratingly Bad" but doesn't say if he's scum, and then lists the two lynches for Day one as his worst.
@CaptH can you explain why you felt the need to address Dormio and Dan in that post?

Dormio doesn't look worse, but all he really did was push his remaining case from day one on day two.

As for Chaore, well. I really do think he's town. Forgiving him for the whole of 369 (The one where he says he wants Dan and HW alive, but not Shadoweh) his posts feel genuine. He was one of the ones actively trying to figure out what happened in a time where scum would want to shut up and bus their partner, who's already far gone. Plus, I've gotten it into my head that the HW Nightkill on night 2 makes more sense when you consider that Chaore's role is true. The Scumteam probably killed HW because they figured the doctor would be able to give him a town clear.

He's basically my only town read left this game
LLD being lazy at this point in the game is frusterating, but since my reread I'm more forgiving of her playstyle considering her results. Although it'd be nice if she showed her work on Affinity.
Affinity backtracking on the Capt H town read is making me panic. I'm too tired to address the post rationally, so I'm going to sleep on it.

[Affinity]

Why would you withhold judgment on a person who only had one vote to his name, if you truly think that he's scum?  And you have not answered my questions as to what happened to your opinions on other people like Dormio and Shadoweh.  If you had the time to devote one paragraph to prodding lurkers (which had no effect on the game whatsoever), sure you would have the time to do more useful things like make clear what happened to your other cases from D1.

As for the supposed fencesit, I'm having cold feet about my opinion on Chaore as of this morning, especially regarding his D2 actions, so I suppose I'l confirm that I want Dormio lynched over Chaore now.  His rather useless D3 conduct still stands though.

[WHMZakeri]

Edit: Forgot to respond to cuts.

Dormio: I'm not satisfied with your answer to my second question. If you'd hold back on Shadoweh because you can't tell what's her being weird or not, how do you tell if Chaore or Serela is just being weird or not? Especially since Serela is much more likely to act weird as town than Shadoweh is.

Dormio pushes Scum LLD/Town Affinity, and then suddenly one post later, Capt H pushes Town LLD/Scum Affinity. I'm not certain if this is a happy Coincidence or not, but it sounds like the set up for a scum motivated False Dichotomy.

##Fos: Dormio
##FoS: Capt.H

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

I meant as in, I needed some more time to parse her actions.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Either way, to reiterate or make it clear or whatever.

##FoS Chaore
##FoS LLD

[capt. h]

@Zak - I felt obligated to note Dormio and Dan because they were the other two players that were viable wagons at the time. It was time to form wagons and I had decided that I was going to drop them in favor of NeoSerela, who I thought was the scummiest. Since the three players were equally viable at the time of my vote, I needed to explain why I was pushing for NeoSerela's lynch, as opposed to Dan's or Dormio's, and why I thought NeoSerela was more likely to be scum than the other two.


@Affinity - Everyone truely thought Action Dan was scum when Polaris died searching him. And then he said he could confirm himself town. I'm not going to go about lynching mod-confirmed townies, and I'm not going to continue to push the scumminess of a player that's going to flip himself until after the flip. Whereas for why I focused mostly on Action Dan, it was because Dan was the center of attention, and needed the majority of my focus. The first and most important thing I needed to figure out was whether or not I thought Dan was scum, and the other players could wait. Had the day gone on longer and calmed down a bit I would have properly analyzed other players and make cases on them. But it was cut very short by Rikter and Action Dan.

[Lexicat]

I only made it up to day two in my reads. I'll have more tomorrow.

To add, Capt H has a less than Stellar Day 2. I only count three posts, and only one actually comments on a person's Alignment. That post is post 387, where he discounts Dan's confirm and tries to lead people away from the (now revealed) False dichotomy of the day. Another thing that makes me frown really hard at him is his Post 179 In which he says Dormio is Dormio, Dan is "Frusteratingly Bad" but doesn't say if he's scum, and then lists the two lynches for Day one as his worst.
@CaptH can you explain why you felt the need to address Dormio and Dan in that post?

Dormio doesn't look worse, but all he really did was push his remaining case from day one on day two.

As for Chaore, well. I really do think he's town. Forgiving him for the whole of 369 (The one where he says he wants Dan and HW alive, but not Shadoweh) his posts feel genuine. He was one of the ones actively trying to figure out what happened in a time where scum would want to shut up and bus their partner, who's already far gone. Plus, I've gotten it into my head that the HW Nightkill on night 2 makes more sense when you consider that Chaore's role is true. The Scumteam probably killed HW because they figured the doctor would be able to give him a town clear.

He's basically my only town read left this game
LLD being lazy at this point in the game is frusterating, but since my reread I'm more forgiving of her playstyle considering her results. Although it'd be nice if she showed her work on Affinity.
Affinity backtracking on the Capt H town read is making me panic. I'm too tired to address the post rationally, so I'm going to sleep on it.

The Afffinity town read isn't... a town read persay.
 
It's basically a "I think Capt.H/Dormio is the scum team, so Affinity can't be scum". Process of Elimination.