5th Touhou Nico Dousai - Touhou Popularity Contest - Results are in!

[AnonymousPondScum]

THERE IS NO GOD BUT CATFISH.

[Kilgamayan]

Characters:
[3] Aya Shameimaru
[2] Reisen Udongein Inaba
[2] Eiki Shiki, Yamaxanadu at Law
[1] Toyosatomimi no Miko
[1] Komachi Onozuka

Music:
[3] Wind God Girl (StB ver because I was too lazy to hunt down the BAiJR ver)
[2] Doll Judgment (PCB ver)
[2] Invisible Full Moon (IN ver)
[1] Fires of Hokkai
[1] Nuclear Fusion (SA ver)
[1] True Administrator (XD ver)
[1] Autumnal Waterfall

Best Partner: Toyosatomimi no Miko and Soga no Tojiko

[Aya Reiko]

Charas

1. Alice
2's. Cirno & Meiling
3's. Reisen & Yukari

Music.
I forget

Pair
Yukari & Yuyuko

Survey
Said I was from Hokkaido but otherwise told the truth.

...in hindsight, I wish I picked Momiji & Kagerou

[Clarste]

...in hindsight, I wish I picked Momiji & Kagerou

The poll doesn't have Kagerou anyway, since it doesn't include DDC characters. It does have Kokoro though.

[Captain Vulcan]

Hmm. Here are my votes:

Characters:

1. Aya Shameimaru
2. Byakuren Hijiri
3. Seiga Kaku
4. Kasen Ibaraki
5. Eirin Yagokoro
6. Satori Komeiji

Music:

1. The Gensokyou That the Gods Loved
2. UFO Romance In the Night Sky
3. Alice In Wonderland & Old Yuanxian
4. Last Remote
5. Maiden's Cappricio

Partners or whatnot:

Kasen & Seiga. C'mon, when the jasen gave Kasen her a business card I thought it was beyond hilarious.

[Forte Blackadder]

Has it already ended or what ?

[Clarste]

Has it already ended or what ?

Voting ended on the 16th, but I thought it was supposed to be announced on the 30th. Since it's being tallied by computer though, it shouldn't really take any time to count so I wouldn't be surprised if the results were leaked.

Looks like Kokoro wormed her way up to #20.

[Kaze_Senshi]

Koishi is pretty popular this year  anyway Youmu is between the top10 so it is OK

[Drake]

While these numbers may be good, I'm still obviously not going to count this as an official result.

[Sage Ω (Ultima)]

Yeah so can anyone tell me who's in the top 10 or 20?

[Drake]

remilia alice koishi reimu marisa aya flandre sakuya youmu satori tenshi sanae mokou yuuka momiji nitori yuyuko yukari patchouli kokoro

[Sage Ω (Ultima)]

Didn't expect Remilia to win.

[Suikama]

remilia alice koishi reimu marisa aya flandre sakuya youmu satori tenshi sanae mokou yuuka momiji nitori yuyuko yukari patchouli kokoro meiling

fixed

just out of top 20 ;_;

[Drake]

Didn't expect Remilia to win.

it




was

Spoiler:

luck

[Aya Reiko]

it




was

Spoiler:

fate

Fixed that for ya.

[tohosubs]

This is a more recent version of what I posted earlier. It's an "exit poll" based on tweets that have the official hashtag and are in a certain format. Given the point differences at the top, definitely not final.

They're making the results announcement video, to be posted on the 30th.

[Drake]

Fixed that for ya.

[Gpop]

remilia alice koishi reimu marisa aya flandre sakuya youmu satori tenshi sanae mokou yuuka momiji nitori yuyuko yukari patchouli kokoro

If this is true holy fuck Koishi your popularity really did increase.

...pun probably intended :V

[Suikama]

If this is true holy fuck Koishi your popularity really did increase.

...pun probably intended :V

now shes confirmed op :V

[Star King]

Never posted my list:

1. Byakuren Hijiri
2. Yukari Yakumo
2. Komachi Onozuka
3. Shou Toramaru
3. Remilia Scarlet

Pretty bad about picking favorites though. A lot of others had the potential to make it. The only two that clearly feel the best of the best are Byakuren and Yukari.

Speaking of which...

Best Partner : Yakumo Yukari and Hijiri Byakuren
An odd one, I know. Well, it's because of a certain doujin...

OK, normally I wouldn't care but seeing as who it is, I have to ask.

-------

Music:
1. Emotional Skyscraper ~ Cosmic Mind
2. Septette for the Dead Princess
2. Night Sakura of Dead Spirits
3. The Tiger-Patterned Bishamonten
3. Native Faith
3. Desire Drive
3. The Ground's Color is Yellow

Also bad at picking favorites here. Except Byakuren's theme. BEST.

[iK]

I find it a bit funny that even with a substantially smaller voter base, it seems Medicine still ends up at exactly 65th place.

[MewMewHeart]

I guess Remilia just *shades* manipulated her fate, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

[Kingault]

OK, normally I wouldn't care but seeing as who it is, I have to ask.

I have a guess, but I'd rather be sure...

[PhantomSong]

remilia alice koishi reimu marisa aya flandre sakuya youmu satori tenshi sanae mokou yuuka momiji nitori yuyuko yukari patchouli kokoro

Didn't expect Satori to be so high up

[Arcorann]

Didn't expect Satori to be so high up

Satori was already 10th in the 2012 THWiki popularity poll. By my analysis she could be anywhere between 7th to 16th in this one.

[tohosubs]

Come watch the results announcement video released live with other Touhou fans!
http://nazr.in/5nh
11am eastern, 8am pacific

I'm also compiling videos from the Nico Dousai at http://nazr.in/5ng

[edit] Sorry, am not pm.

[Arcorann]

Well, I've come up with some projected score and rank ranges. The score range is intended to be an approximation of a 95% confidence interval (hence the large width). The rank ranges are narrower than the score ranges due to the way I generated them (keeping the scores for all other characters constant and taking the extreme values of the score). The analysis methodology is available on request.

If anyone knows how to make the table fancier, please share.

EDIT: Rearranged in order of estimated rank. Changes: (Alice, Koishi) (2, 3)-->(3, 2), (Mokou, Yuuka) (13, 14) --> (14, 13), (Yuyuko, Yukari) (17, 18) --> (18, 17), (Cirno, Byakuren) (23, 24) --> (24, 23),  (Parsee, Utsuho) (25, 27) --> (27, 25), (Ran, Nue) (30, 31) --> (31, 30), (Iku, Miko) (37, 38) --> (38, 37), (Eiki, Rin, Hatate) (39, 40, 41) --> (40, 41, 39), (Kaguya, Seiga) (45, 46) --> (46, 45), (Keine, Maribel) (49, 50) --> (50, 49), (Koakuma, Yuugi, Kyouko) (57, 58, 59) --> (58, 59, 57), (Medicine, Tojiko) (65, 67) --> (67, 65), (Yoshika, Tewi) (71, 72) --> (72, 71), (Alice's dolls, Rinnosuke) (76, 77) --> (77, 76), (Yumeko, Reisen II, Mai) (89. 90, 91) --> (91. 89, 90)
Also fixed a couple of typos.

EDIT2: One last fix (for entries near the bottom). And yes, I know the results are already out.

Name	Low points	High points	Low rank	High rank
Remilia	4775	5979	5	1
Koishi	4769	5939	5	1
Alice	4711	5904	6	1
Reimu	4404	5566	7	1
Marisa	4354	5494	7	1
Aya	4231	5392	8	1
Flandre	3906	5007	10	4
Sakuya	3787	4886	11	6
Youmu	3489	4582	14	7
Satori	3499	4541	14	7
Tenshi	3392	4400	15	8
Sanae	3130	4166	15	9
Yuuka	3066	4060	17	9
Mokou	3038	4055	17	9
Momiji	2996	3983	18	11
Nitori	2639	3593	20	13
Yukari	2664	3589	19	13
Yuyuko	2598	3550	20	13
Patchouli	2404	3318	22	16
Kokoro	2289	3116	26	16
Meiling	2141	3007	29	19
Kogasa	2098	2946	29	19
Byakuren	2014	2818	32	20
Cirno	1953	2814	33	20
Utsuho	1955	2756	33	20
Renko	1947	2756	33	20
Parsee	1908	2729	34	20
Rumia	1802	2623	35	21
Hina	1797	2615	35	21
Nue	1752	2494	36	22
Ran	1707	2501	38	22
Futo	1720	2467	38	23
Suwako	1627	2387	41	23
Reisen	1589	2335	42	25
Mystia	1523	2273	43	28
Nazrin	1474	2185	44	28
Miko	1424	2123	47	30
Iku	1412	2132	47	30
Hatate	1393	2060	48	33
Eiki	1336	2053	50	33
Rin	1330	2026	50	33
Daiyousei	1316	1999	50	33
Suika	1239	1919	51	35
Mamizou	1216	1855	51	36
Shou	1158	1812	51	36
Seiga	1153	1784	52	37
Kaguya	1140	1794	52	37
Kasen	1135	1766	53	37
Maribel	1104	1721	53	39
Keine	1078	1723	55	39
Minamitsu	1001	1605	59	43
Shizuha	895	1500	63	45
Akyuu	877	1482	63	45
Kanako	843	1448	63	46
Wriggle	831	1440	64	46
Ichirin	810	1381	65	49
Kyouko	818	1350	65	51
Koakuma	784	1345	67	51
Yuugi	780	1335	67	51
Minoriko	740	1290	68	51
Lunasa	718	1263	68	52
Komachi	714	1253	68	52
Chen	712	1222	69	52
Yamame	632	1132	72	54
Tojiko	635	1100	72	55
Kosuzu	603	1085	72	56
Medicine	583	1090	73	56
Eirin	553	1043	73	58
Lyrica	515	998	73	60
Letty	506	977	73	61
Tewi	486	916	73	64
Yoshika	474	919	73	64
Yumemi	417	856	77	64
Yorihime	319	701	81	71
Lunasa	317	690	81	71
Rinnosuke	302	684	82	71
Alice's dolls	288	678	85	71
Shinki	275	633	86	73
Star	257	616	87	73
Merlin	240	599	87	73
Kisume	200	542	88	74
Lily	180	513	88	74
Gengetsu	177	501	89	74
Sunny	174	489	89	74
Toyohime	174	489	89	74
Mugetsu	172	477	90	74
Mima	154	460	92	76
Unnamed book-reading youkai	119	414	97	79
Reisen II	93	345	99	81
Mai	94	331	99	81
Yumeko	79	342	103	81
Kana	76	329	103	82
Kotohime	67	326	103	82
Fairy	62	312	104	82
Leila	58	299	104	84
Elly	57	269	104	87
Chiyuri	57	269	104	87
Unzan	41	268	109	87
Ellen	39	253	109	88
YuugenMagan	26	237	109	88
Kurumi	22	222	118	89
Yuki	22	222	118	89
Tsuchinoko	22	222	118	89
Hobgoblin	13	206	118	89
Genjii	7	190	118	89
Rikako	7	190	118	89
Youki	7	190	118	89
Kappa	5	174	118	90
Sake bug	5	174	118	90
UFO	2	141	148	95
Crow/raven	2	141	148	95
Konngara	2	141	148	95
Sara	2	141	148	95
Eientei youkai rabbits	2	141	148	95
Meira	2	141	148	95
Kedama	2	141	148	95
Sariel	2	141	148	95
Moon rabbit	2	141	148	95
etc.	0	106	148	99

[tohosubs]

Nice. Do cool kids like you live in Japan?

[Imosa]

The analysis methodology is available on request.

Yeah, I'd like to hear it. The numbers are pointless without knowing how you got them.

[Arcorann]

Well, there were a few steps involved:

* Finding confidence intervals for the proportion of 3-point and 2-point votes. This was the easiest, simply construct confidence intervals (I used the Wilson score interval due to the probabilities being small).
* Estimating the number of 1-point votes and finding a confidence interval. For this step I used a weighted average of (no. of 2-point votes) and 2*(no. of 3-point votes), with somewhat arbitrarily chosen weights of 3/4 and 1/4 respectively. (I considered using a regression based on THWiki's polls, then remembered that they don't post the number of 2-point votes.)
* Combining the estimates to create a final confidence interval. This was the least rigorous part; the method I used consisted of adding the confidence intervals together, then adjusting the centre and width of the interval based on the ratios of the true standard deviation to the sum of (half) the widths.

The spreadsheet I used is here.