Angel Beats! Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Win

[Bardiche]

RE: Conq. Still not entirely happy with him. See a bunch of twitterposts from him and the crux of the Shadoweh push still seems to be the postulation that Shadoweh would be fierce. I can follow this postulation to a certain degree but reject it as being the end-all be-all of a case.

Reading back I am displeased Conq rejected answering questions re: who is scum and why vig Kilga. Maintain that his D1 does not contain much if anything of a case on Kilga at all, so the attack comes out of left field.

Repeating everything here as I find it important to know your views on Huh What at the time I asked (though by now it is at this time), excepting the blurb on voting Shadoweh as that is sufficiently explained.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Votecount

Conqueror (0):
huh what (0):
ActionDan (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
Serela (0):
Affinity (1): Bardiche
Bardiche (0):
BT (1): Affinity

Not voting: Conqueror, huh what, ActionDan, NekoNekoRex, Serela, BT

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

You have ~62.75 hours remaining.

[BT]

gonna sheep to rightous Affinity Bard town.

##Vote Affinity

Pretty much sums up a lot of things that were iffy yesterday. Generally reluctant to jump head-first into the major discussions, attempt at starting that "Serela is not Serela" wagon during D1 and later avoiding Shadoweh/HW wagons in favor of Omba. (and since he didn't show up for deadline he was expecting to end the day with that vote <_<)

Pretty certain of Dan/Neko scum now. May I direct your attention to the late-D1 interactions? Neko panics as if anticipating sure death but starts a case on Dan which he himself notes as useless at that point. Later Dan nitpicks on Neko instead of focusing on ~anything else around him~, at that point I thought it was scum vs town but now looks like distancing (along with Neko's case). Would vote Neko, would vote Dan but have nothing on him because as earlier stated he is simply not in the game (although that alone is reason for vote).

Think I'm gonna assume a Town!Kilga flip, possibly a PR but who knows. (therefore assuming 3 scum)

[Serela]

WOAH WOAH WOAH WHY TWO VOTES ON ONE PERSON GUYS

And for one thing, Bard, there does -not- need to be four scum for pseudo-lylo here.

8 people alive, three scum, a lynch and an NK, three townies three scum town loses.

Even while I may agree, I haven't even done my rereads yet, so even I don't want a sudden lynch here >.>; I'm still eating breakfast, and then I'm probably going to go back to sleep.

[Serela]

Oh BT and Bard are voting different people right nevermind

still unvote because three man scumteam could quicklynch if you're both town

[Serela]

In fact if there was 4 scum, first of all wtf, second of all we'd already have lost right now.

[Serela]

Oh wait five votes to lynch oooooooooooooh yeaaaaaaaaaaah

I'm not so good at the thinkings right now I'll just go back to my cereal and then sleep

why did I even comment on 4person scumteam

[Affinity]

If LLD's claim was legit, people should carry on the day normally, voting who they think is scum other than Shadoweh, before lynching her afterwards.  After her gambit was exposed, then all that is left is to consider Shadoweh's actions, which were non-existent D2.  Her votes were ineffectual, her AtE unbearable, her intentions obsfucated.  Nothing would be gained if my voice was added to that of many; this is the reason why D2 was rendered completely useless to most.

And Conq suddenly showed agreement for Omba's wagon when he was L-2 on D1, wasn't he, when he suddenly terminated his vote for BT.  Don't see how Conq 'going after two targets on D2' would change any of the history I am using; my case was pretty legit and not based on 'playstyle'. 

Also I overslept on D1, yeah.  Remember saying that Shadoweh was town, but BT requiring someone to make a vote for him is rather huh. 

[Conqueror]

Conq's attempting to play "gotcha" with my dumb posts strikes me rather opportunistic, considering all the now-ironic D2 posts that make me look alot worse with the Shadoweh flip.

How am I trying to play "gotcha" with your "dumb posts"? It's more likely than your "dumb posts" came from scum than town.
Also, lol at me/HW team.

@Conq: Eh, you questioned huhwhat herehere before the mason revelation came, without putting him in your scumteam thing here.  It would seem strange (whom you didn't think was scum) to question huhwhat over the people you mentioned in the latter post...  <_<

>Implying I only question my scumreads.
In any case I was trying to correct the bullshit huhwhat was spewing. Although it turned out to be partially(?) correct in the end.

Not really sure how Conq's advance on Rawr today makes a lick of sense. Lambda claimed Governor end of Day 1, then claimed Cop early Day 2 but never stated target; Considering who she is, possibility of gambit exists. Why exactly is this scummy of NekoNekoRex?

Hold. Dial back. This post considers the claim and mentions "if LSD is serious". Was there grounds to believe she wasn't? (implication: Are you Scum and did you know she was Roleblocked?)

Assuming you mean Neko there instead of rawr, your argument for Affinity scum is pretty much what I'm saying about Neko, So why are you dismissing it for the former instead of the latter when I expect Affinity would be more likely to see through a "gambit" given player experience?

[Conqueror]

Reading back I am displeased Conq rejected answering questions re: who is scum and why vig Kilga. Maintain that his D1 does not contain much if anything of a case on Kilga at all, so the attack comes out of left field.

This happens to be the quote you're talking about.

Vig should aim for Kilga and not LLD.

I was partially pushing against an LLD vig since certain people seemed to be angling for LLD!scum. I also didn't like the way Kilga looked like he was piggybacking on LLD's dislike for me for really stretchy reasons (really, asking questions as a timewaster)?

Repeating everything here as I find it important to know your views on Huh What at the time I asked (though by now it is at this time), excepting the blurb on voting Shadoweh as that is sufficiently explained.

http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,12964.msg853738.html#msg853738
http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,12964.msg853744.html#msg853744

[Conqueror]

Posts re: D1 stance on huhwhat
http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,12964.msg851437.html#msg851437
http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,12964.msg853011.html#msg853011
http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,12964.msg853041.html#msg853041
Seriously Bard.

Also, for huhwhat, I'm looking for rawr's posts specifically around the start of D2 when everything was shaking up.

[Serela]

Theory: Pesco is actually the cop who is acting as horribly as possible so that neither town nor scum would be willing to get rid of her, thus guaranteeing at least one cop result

Pesco - TK, Rapper(Vanilla Townie) was found dead N1.

yeah Neko is still town :I

This is like a PoE miracle. Four people (Dan, BT, Affinity, Conq) and three are most likely scum. After I wake up from my post-morning-wake nap I'll reread Conq to see about my town read on him.

[Conqueror]

Serela: That statement doesn't actually make Neko town though. It just makes him a derp.

[Conqueror]

Well since Dormio hasn't gotten back yet and Neko seemed to do it fine I guess I'll post something from my own personal thoughts QT.

Actually, it dawned on me that I'm probably clearing rawr/Bard too easily. The fake mason claim is easy to pull off as scum, and he'd get town cred for it at little to no risk. The way Bard has formulated his cases this game has also been to throw everything and the kitchen sink to see what sticks (sorta like what Kilga did with Shadoweh). Also, Bard getting hung up over huhwhat claiming scum seems like a possible ploy.

[Conqueror]

Not concerned that a four-man scum team might quicklynch due to pseudo-LyLo. Pseudo meaning Night Actions dictate the results if we mislynch, as yet find panic mongering disconcerting. Scum team gambitting on night actions going right and quicklynching seems laughable.

Humour me for a second here. You think there are 3 scum left, yes? Mislynch today, down to 7. Then it's down to night actions to prevent the scum endgaming at 3-3.
It's more like town has to gambit on night actions to go right if we mislynch, which is pretty terrible.

[Serela]

Well yeah there's other reasons.

It's just a slightly more amusing highlight.

[Conqueror]

Not concerned that a four-man scum team might quicklynch due to pseudo-LyLo. Pseudo meaning Night Actions dictate the results if we mislynch, as yet find panic mongering disconcerting. Scum team gambitting on night actions going right and quicklynching seems laughable.

http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,7063.msg444164.html#msg444164
Oh man look at this Psuedo-LYLO
And tons of other possibilities
Oh, what's this?

Welp. I guess this means we'd best not vote until we're sure, because if there's two scum it means they can quicklynch if we select a wrong target, and I'd rather not lose the day to the night shenanigans for luck!

[Conqueror]

tl;dr if you're town pls unvote.
Gone until tonight.

[NekoNekoRex]

Actually, it dawned on me that I'm probably clearing rawr/Bard too easily. The fake mason claim is easy to pull off as scum, and he'd get town cred for it at little to no risk. The way Bard has formulated his cases this game has also been to throw everything and the kitchen sink to see what sticks (sorta like what Kilga did with Shadoweh). Also, Bard getting hung up over huhwhat claiming scum seems like a possible ploy.

I assume this is why LLD told Bard he would have to die too in a scum neighbor situation

Although his first post is still pretty hard to believe it came from a connivining scum and not a surprised sub-in  townie

[Serela]

Although his first post is still pretty hard to believe it came from a connivining scum and not a surprised sub-in  townie

Yes, because Bard is town

[ActionDan]

I'll be free tonight, but before that, I'm curious.

WHY IS NO ONE THINKING.

holy shit.  #1.  it's pseudo-lylo with 8(!) people.  There are obviously 3 scum.  However, pseudo-lylo implies that town can lose even by no lynching which means there is the potential for 2 kills tonight.  along with the 2nd janitored kill last night it's pretty obvious we have a multi-shot SK/vig that WE CANNOT LYNCH TODAY. 

#2.  Known power: cop/doc.  Claimed power:  2 neighbors.  Known scum power: roleblocker (janitor?).  we pretty much know that the vig/SK wasn't roleblocked N1 so I'm going to assume that they took a shot.  I highly doubt that Pesco was the shot for both scum SK/vig based on Odds.  (gonna say now that I think out of vig/SK it's an SK because why didn't they shoot Shadoweh etc.)  based on this I feel one of Scum/SK shot the other faction who was BP (other theory is that scum shot a scum traitor that got recruited [side note: Bard, Scum traitor is common and optimal play is for a scum traitor claim cop and fake a cop result on an innocent])  .  I think roleblocker janitor BP scum team is a tad powerful so I'm guessing scum team is either goon janitor roleblocker [omg Dormio is Schezo] or else goon roleblocker BP.  in one case SK is BP, in the other SK is equipped with janitor shot (also maybe BP).

Personally, I think scum is goon roleblocker janitor and shot the BP SK and SK shot Pesco, and last night scum janitored Kilga + roleblocked LLD, although I'm not sure if SK would kill LLD.  Irregardless of w/e spec, I get the feeling one of Neko/Conq/Serela is SK while Affinity is scum + 2 others... who I can't really think of but would be within Conq/Neko and I can't come up with more.  I believe Neighbors + Serela not to be scum.  I think BT is town.  I'll do more reading tonight.

#3  As it stands from #1 and #2, I would like a Massclaim today.  It does two things:  Determines vig/SK.  Gets their N1 action.  secondly, any other power would make me reconsider whether the neighbors have a chance of being scum.  As for who starts the Massclaim, I can go first, or we could go with popular opinion.  I would like Affinity to go first.  If any townie is a one-shot BP, or even just BP, Claim that you are 1-shot BP.  Actually in the first run, I'd prefer that the SK/vig does NOT claim until Massclaim is over.  Claim Vanilla town instead

Also if Affinity is town (or at least not-scum) and assuming neither of BT/Bard were not scum themselves then it would have been game over.  i.e, it is guaranteed there is at least one scum (defined as mafia here, not SK) among Affinity/BT/Bard

[Serela]

BP shouldn't claim unless it's only one-shot and that one-shot knowingly got used up N1, otherwise that's a horrible idea, Dan. >:C

Since there is a scum roleblocker, SK/Vig should NOT trueclaim, since if we mislynch we need their NK. So, also a horrible idea.

And lookie here, the two power roles that might be around shouldn't claim. Great. Massclaim is now pointless, unless there's a one-shot BP that knows they lost their thing n1, or some town powerrole not listed here. Not much of a point to massclaim (Although if one-shot bp etc then that person should go ahead, or if there's someone with some role that hasn't been mentioned that thinks they should claim, etc)

[Serela]

editpost: one-shot vig could also claim

but a BP/Vig that still has their power needs to go unknown and keep their trap shut

[Serela]

Also if Affinity is town (or at least not-scum) and assuming neither of BT/Bard were not scum themselves then it would have been game over.  i.e, it is guaranteed there is at least one scum (defined as mafia here, not SK) among Affinity/BT/Bard

what are you talking about. :I

[NekoNekoRex]

You know, for all we know scum might not have been able to get all of themselves together yet for a quicklynch

We seriously need unvotes for the two townies on BT

[NekoNekoRex]

*two townies on Affinity

[Serela]

There is not two votes on anyway. No one is or has been in danger of being quicklynched.

[Serela]

anyone*

[Serela]

OH NEVERMIND THERE IS I'M BLIND.

Suddenly Dan makes more sense. Neko's point of scumteam not being organized still stands though. They may also be opting to not quicklynch due to only being in pseudo-lylo; quicklynch would make them obvious, and if there's an SK/multi-vig (possible explanation of pseudo-lylo) they'd be fucked.

[NekoNekoRex]

##Vote: Affinity

##Vote Affinity

Uh?