Author Topic: Angel Beats! Mafia - Game Over - Mafia Win (Read 104227 times)

Conqueror · « **Reply #990 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:07:53 AM »

Uh well. I'm going to go think for a bit. Will respond to Bard in a bit as I intend to get a case out by tonight anyway.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #991 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:08:26 AM »

This is the first I've heard of rawr/Bard having an extra ability, by the way.

Serela · « **Reply #992 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:09:02 AM »

Also Affinity could be Actually Scum and just gambitting but considering all the info we have I think it's more likely he's telling the truth. Because otherwise scum was given a janitor extra kill that they can use before any of their members dies which is just plain silly balance-wise.

Bard:OR we could lynch the claimed third party and lose because it's lylo and we have to lynch SCUM.

Also yeah the extra power suddenly makes me headtilt.

Bardiche · « **Reply #993 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:09:53 AM »

Quote from: Serela on July 11, 2012, 12:05:24 AM

BARD. BARD :I IT IS LYLO THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO LYNCH THIRD PARTIES

YOU GUYS. SERIOUSLY. EVERY GAME.

Serela · « **Reply #994 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:10:28 AM »

Bard. Okay. Let's take a different approach here.

Do you think Affinity is actually scum and not third party?

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #995 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:10:58 AM »

Votecount

Conqueror (1): NekoNekoRex
huh what (0):
ActionDan (0):
NekoNekoRex (2): huh what, Conqueror
Serela (0):
Affinity (2): Bardiche, BT
Bardiche (0):
BT (1): Affinity

Not voting: ActionDan, Serela

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

You have ~26 hours remaining.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #996 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:16:08 AM »

If Affinity is indeed a SK, he has to be even night because the mod says we couldn't lose by NLing today.

Bardiche · « **Reply #997 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:17:16 AM »

Quote

Also yeah the extra power suddenly makes me headtilt.

Why do you suppose I was so confused by the Mason claim?

Quote from: Serela on July 11, 2012, 12:10:28 AM

Bard. Okay. Let's take a different approach here.

Do you think Affinity is actually scum and not third party?

I think Affinity is a non-Town aligned entity for 100% sure, and it's more likely he's as he says than that he is Scum.

Yes, okay, no, when I calc it you're right, 8->7->6 == 3 town vs 3 scum town goes orz

Still we let Affinity live we look, at best, at 8->7->6 == 3 town vs 1 Affinity vs 2 scum -> Affinity can make a deal with Scum to instant-win on Scum's side.

Urgh I am so frustrate why can we never just lynch the goddamn claimed third party.

##Unvote

How is Affinity mod-confirmed to be an even-Night Serial Killer?

Cut by huh whatty. Oh. Right.

Serela · « **Reply #998 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:22:31 AM »

On the UPSIDE, no-lynching is now a viable strategy, because then if we mislynch tomorrow Affinity's kill will come up as a last hope to save us. (I haven't run the numbers to see if that makes it hard for town to manage to win instead of Affinity, though.)

Affinity didn't explicitly claim bulletproof but it's not surprising if he is and that's the most likely reason tonight is only pseudo.

Quote

Affinity can make a deal with Scum to instant-win on Scum's side.

He's an SK, not a survivor. However, getting into a situation where town can't win due to never getting a chance to lynch the SK is a possibility. This is also a worry for scum though. Affinity is in a powerful position if we manage to not game over today.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #999 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:23:07 AM »

wait, if the sk is even night and there's no vig, why was pesco of all people the n1 kill

Serela · « **Reply #1000 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:24:07 AM »

because it's pesco I guess

They also might have been thinking the same thing Neko was :V

Serela · « **Reply #1001 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:26:35 AM »

Oh hey, time to renew PoE now that we've got a SK up in here.

Me/HW/Bard town. Affinity third party. Dan/BT/Conq/Neko as

. Well, I guess Conq and Neko can' t both be town then.

Affinity · « **Reply #1002 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:28:04 AM »

I am vindicated by Kilga's flip, I would think. : ] Don't think I'm the scum people are looking for. Why would I claim SK if it's unsafe to do so anyways?

Well, Bard quoting only one facet of my Conq case is rather huh. He did have his little questioning period on huhwhat, but I was not swayed by that, for example.

Serela voting me for being 'weird' is not scumhunting at all. The reason why everyone's in a high school on a giant floating cloud is because they are weird anyways. There's precedent for it here, but the BT points are mysteriously missing. I don't know about this, but Serela/BT? Hmm.

Still set with lynching BT, though. Conq at first glance looks somewhat fine today, and I will see if I can reread NNR or something (though I don't expect to find anything).

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #1003 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:30:58 AM »

i reallllly don't think serela is scum after he missed the doc's flip. he's not the sort of person to think of that thing and the scum quicktopic should have been partying about how they lynched the doc

Bardiche · « **Reply #1004 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:31:36 AM »

Quote from: Serela on July 11, 2012, 12:22:31 AM

He's an SK, not a survivor. However, getting into a situation where town can't win due to never getting a chance to lynch the SK is a possibility. This is also a worry for scum though. Affinity is in a powerful position if we manage to not game over today.

I'm very used to SKs being Survivors as well due to difficulty in killing all of the Mafia and all bar one of Town. Your optimism is not shared. Nor is the faith that Affinity will act in Town's best interests.

Can we.

Just please. For once. Serial Killer isn't Town Vigilante. Please. JUST ONCE.

Cut by Affinity being all smug. Fsgfgds I hate everything.

Bardiche · « **Reply #1005 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:33:45 AM »

As much as I loathe to admit lynching Affinity may lead into Scum win, but fuck if I'm happy with it.

Serela · « **Reply #1006 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:36:27 AM »

OH HAHAHA, I just remembered, scum roleblocker, yeah no-lynching is not an option today because Affinity would just get roleblocked.

The secret reason I voted Affinity is because I thought BT was the SK and Affinity was scum trying to push him off a cliff. I'm sorry :C

In my reread I thought BT looked very not-normal-BT. I wasn't sure if he was actually scum, but he seemed to fit the SK bill perfectly. Dan was being way too... well, the way he's been D3, it seemed too unlikely that he was the SK taking refuge in furious SK hunt or whatever word better describes his today-actions. And I thought Affinity was scum. So.

I'm okay with voting BT after the new developments mean he isn't the SK and Affinity also isn't scum.

Cut:Bard, I've never seen SK doubling as survivor on MotK before. Maybe other places! But not here. Also I don't want to lose the game just to lynch the third party :I That's entirely silly. I also think playing against your win condition is against the rules, but I haven't read them recently.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #1007 on:** July 11, 2012, 12:58:42 AM »

affinity, what are your thoughts on switching to NekoRex right now?

Serela · « **Reply #1008 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:00:57 AM »

Oh considering the situation I guess I should probably go ahead and

##Vote BT

Hey Neko :D BT is your counterwagon. Come vote him if you don't want to be lynched, please.

ActionDan · « **Reply #1009 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:16:45 AM »

just in case mod is super troll.

@MOD: Is it conceivable that town will lose if a town is mis-lynched today?

oboy. well! Pretty sure Conq/Hw/Serela had a decent enough opportunity to quick-lynch Affinity for the win before Bard unvoted, so congrats! at least one of you is town!

what was Kilga's name? Will look for tracker crumbs + N1 result crumbs

If kilga was a tracker it's plausible again that one of the neighbors could be scum. I'm surprised Bard didn't think of "the numbers" about how lynching Affinity leads to a loss faster. Like immediately.

That said it's possible affinity is a fake-claiming survivor where Scum has 2 members + an extra jan-vig. He could also be fake-claiming scum where scum has 3 members + a Janvig that's only actionable either N1 or N2 or something like that. However, both these options are very unlikely. So let's assume SK for now.

Serela, your extra reason for suspecting affinity was thinking BT was the SK that scum affinity wanted to off? gotcha. I thought you were gonna claim vig or something.

first. I really don't think Serela is scum. Second. That leaves Hw/Bard/Conq/BT/Neko.

I am getting the idea that maybe Conq is bussing Neko. Irregardless. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. Will probably vote Neko.

ActionDan · « **Reply #1010 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:20:13 AM »

from this point forward.

at least one of Conq/Neko/HW is scum

at least one of Serela/BT is scum. I am slightly worried Serela voted BT just now to frame the question that way.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #1011 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:22:44 AM »

can't find crumbs, but my first guess would be that kilga tracked conq nowhere, since he put his conq pressure on the backburner overnight

Serela · « **Reply #1012 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:26:50 AM »

Bard:Would you rather vote BT or Neko?

Because, after BT and Neko vote the not-them wagons, it'll be a tie; and Dan wants to vote Neko, which means you would be the only means to get a BT lynch, so if it's your preferred, well.

Serela · « **Reply #1013 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:28:15 AM »

Oh waiiiit 5 to lynch not four to lynch. I KEEP FORGETTING THAT.

So even if Bard voted BT we'd just be tied.

Well isn't that a doozy :c I am suddenly concerned about getting my BT lynch.

Bardiche · « **Reply #1014 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:32:15 AM »

Quote

Bard:Would you rather vote BT or Neko?

I'm rereading. Presently I didn't give either of them much thought but liked NekoRex better than BT. Need to read to reaffirm this.

Bardiche · « **Reply #1015 on:** July 11, 2012, 01:38:48 AM »

NNR:

Quote

Hours remaining: 27
Number of Conq's lynched 0/1
Number of scum on wagons 0/3
Number of townies expressing urge to go forward with wagons 1/8

At the time you posted that only ActionDan and Serela weren't voting. What do you mean by no scum on wagons?

BT:

Quote

@Conq: "sheeping Affinity > NNR WHY" Affinity wagon looked lots more possible than NNR wagon at that time. Plus, had more things to point at. A NNR case can collectively be summed up as "opportunistic flailing derpscum", but apparently a NNR lynch is happening and that is obviously fine with me. Sheeping, yes, admittedly, because laziness + time shortage + felt Bard's case was satisfactory. Should probably make a detailed case sometime soon.

I'm parsing this as you voting for "most possible wagon" instead of "most scummy wagon". Can you explain in further detail why you said that in conjunction with saying here that you're p. certain of Dan/Neko Scum? Looks like voting easiest wagon instead of scummiest wagon, need elucidation.

It's like 3:33 AM and we've more than 12 hours so gonna sleep for now and finish reread tomorrow.

Serela · « **Reply #1016 on:** July 11, 2012, 02:13:05 AM »

Okay guys, I crunched the numbers.

The results are a little :C-worthy, so it's pretty important that you try to follow me here!

First, let's establish some facts. Affinity is most probably actually an SK. Scum has a roleblocker. And the reason we're in pseudo-lylo is most probably only because Affinity is most likely bulletproof, which means scum know who not to shoot in order to get an NK off tonight, so it may as well not be Pseudo-lylo.

We cannot no-lynch today, because the only way town can win that is if we managed to lynch the roleblocker tomorrow AND affinity managed to shoot a scum during the night. Which is a crapshoot due to the roleblocker part.

So, we lynch scum today. If we lynch the roleblocker, we likely already lost. Now isn't that fun? Tomorrow, either we lynch a scum and scum+affinity kill a town (Town loss if they don't kill the same townie), or we lynch town and even if Affinity shoots scum it's 1 Town 1 Scum 1 SK town loss.

If we -don't- lynch the roleblocker today, we also have to lynch ANOTHER scum tomorrow who is -also- not the roleblocker, or the same as above happens. LOVELY, ISN'T IT. (Scum also wants their roleblocker to not die, because Affinity has to keep scum from winning using his kill if needed, and Affinity will not be lynched tomorrow since then town would lose to two scum.)

Tl;dr:In order to win, town has to not only lynch two scum in a row, but we have to lynch both the scum who are NOT the roleblocker. Otherwise we have to pray that Affinity accidentally shoots A.The final scum or B.The same person scum shoots. Which are also crapshoots.

I'm debating whether it's realistic to ask the scum roleblocker to claim so we don't lynch him. The problem is, it'd be easy for them to lie to just redirect the lynch onto a townie. Auuuuugh.

Maybe it'd have been better if I just didn't think about this and simply prayed we happened to not lynch the RB'er.

Serela · « **Reply #1017 on:** July 11, 2012, 02:17:03 AM »

tl;dr version:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Serela · « **Reply #1018 on:** July 11, 2012, 02:20:11 AM »

Even if we lynched the two scum who aren't the roleblocker, the RBer could just troll town by not blocking Affinity since he's already lost :I

Affinity · « **Reply #1019 on:** July 11, 2012, 02:31:52 AM »

@HW: Neko is being irritating, but he's drawing too much attention to himself. His case on you, while disagreeable, feels excessive and too much against the general sentiment, especially when he has a slightly more solid case on Conq (barring the gotcha games thing). As a subsidiary case he could always have pushed me instead. Sure, on hindsight, his reads seem more and more irrelevant, but I don't think him scum. I would sooner lynch Conq and BT (who has even less content, and surely not as controversial) over him even.

Besides, he's adorable.