Author Topic: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over  (Read 48052 times)

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #510 on: April 17, 2015, 08:31:55 PM »
I was being generous when I said that because I hadn't reread his posts until the second post.

honestly though the way the wagons turned out I think Elie-Serelie is much more possible and likely. You're right in that BT could just be inactive like I've been, but in addition to the ties you and Serela put in with Rawr, I don't feel like Serela's input on my wagon is genuine.

##Unvote
##Vote: Elieson


Honestly the only people that look really good are Shadoweh and NNR.

NekoNekoRex

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #511 on: April 17, 2015, 08:35:14 PM »
@Elie it's less then 4 hours left
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

NekoNekoRex

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #512 on: April 17, 2015, 08:35:45 PM »
Oh I thought that was a 42, oops
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

NekoNekoRex

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #513 on: April 17, 2015, 08:38:25 PM »
Yeah I'm pretty set with a Zak lynch here, there's basically nothing redeeming about these posts.
The only good post BT has in this entire game is his vote on me and judging from NNR's reaction to Serela's vote on me, that's not a hard thing to make look good at this point in the game.
I don't know what to make of this except just an urge to lynch with fire. It's like, what? This is the same as the post that got rawr lynched tbh. You're comparing the quality of votes based on my reaction to Serela's vote? What?
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #514 on: April 17, 2015, 08:48:21 PM »
Any considerations that maybe Elie is just really bad a playing this game? evidently my reads have been absolutely awful since i thought Dormio was scum and Rawr was town.

If people were scum for being wrong, then this game would have 3 townies and 11 mafia.  I'm not even bothered by your Dormio scumread (the issue there is more how despite scumreading him and having ample opportunity to vote him, you did not do so), but you have given no reasonable explanation for why you were townreading Rawr.  Yes, I read that post explaining it, but nothing there is strong enough to have Dr. Rawr as one of only two people in your "would not lynch" category.

Let me start with a precursor of I had no opinion of the sparse and unmemorable Zakeri ( whom, on a preliminary glance, hasn't done much of anything ). Upon a closer look at the handful of posts that Zak has made; how the fuck do you bulletlist on this forum, clicking List gives me two why do i have to type out the bbcode for everything here why can't this forum just have WYSIWYG god
-Contributions amount to Day one's deathtunnel on Dormio
-Vote on BT was absolutely terrible but during Day 1 it just looked like what he called it; lazy. To see justification after the fact of the magnitude that was presented just doesn't look right. It's justification, sure, but it's a lot, which makes me wonder how a "lazy vote" could possibly have had such a foundation holding it up
-A townread heavily based on a Day 1 scumread which wasn't really a scumread until Day 2

Analysis: Upper tier scumread, held back only by lack of presence.


OK.

- Why is this scummy?  Generally town is more likely to deathtunnel than scum on Day 1, when scum KNOWS they'll look bad when town flips town.
- You're scumreading him because his vote had too much justification?  Seriously?  What about the actual justification itself?
- Uh...No idea what you mean here.  Please explain.

Not a good case.  Barely analyzes his posts worth analyzing.  Opts to nitpick over very few points which are not scummy.  Why have you not analyzed his later posts today?

Your SB/BT (SBT?) townreads are fine, no real issues to speak of there.

Next up, Refa.
=For starters, some responses.
---I unvoted and didn't vote Dormio 9 minutes before phase end because like i've said four times, I didn't want to rush phase end early when people were around discussing things.
---When I have no idea how to read X player, and someone is evidently putting up a decent yet questionable case on X player, I might agree with it (and sheep it) but that doesn't mean I agree with it 100%. Mits had a decent case on O4rfish at the time but I didn't have any more confident reads at the time except SkyPaladin, but I wasn't 100% sold on it and I didn't think that she was either, hence my inquisition
---Why would I ever have a reason not to vote (unless it's like, an unnecessary phase end hammer or something)?
---Yes, I did drop my case on my #1 scumread at the time, because I couldn't get him lynched. People didn't agree with me and were voting elsewhere, making my vote on SkyPaladin neigh useless. I wasn't benefiting anyone by holding a vote where it wouldn't yield any fruit. I already argued my casing, and if the others don't agree with it, then that's their preference. We can't always lynch our #1 scumreads.
And onto thoughts
-I don't feel like Refa's reads are solid. Like, they have continuity, but they feel more or less locked in place
-Questionable position with Dr Rawr, especially this line:Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum v scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.
which was a direct response to Dr Rwar. It just doesn't read right...I can't put my finger on it exactly
-His ISO of Dr Rawr produced such nonconclusive thoughts that it almost reads like Refa's not sure if he should push who might be his buddy
-Presented a bad position on the O4rfish, granted you only retracted your vote because you thought it'd be silly for him to give up when you admit to never buying the "scumclaim" to begin with

Analysis: Mild null-leaning-town read that's become an unexpected scumread

-Dormio wasn't at L-1 for the longest time, so this is wrong.
-That's fine.  What's not fine is when you say "I CAN'T SEE SCUM SAYING SOMETHING LIKE THIS" *keeps my vote on Oarfish regardless*.  Why leave your vote in that case?
-...If both of the wagons were town.  I already said this.  Why would you need to make an empty unvote as town?
-Dropping your #1 scumread isn't scummy, it's the fact that you never deigned to mention this until you were called out for it.  Again, why?
-How are my reads locked in place at all?
-Seriously?
-Fuck you, I already explained why I was non conclusive.  It's because a player I was null on for the entire game was still null after I ISOed him.  This is such a farfetched conclusion, like how would I not know whether or not I'd want to bus him as scum when he was the leading wagon.  Probably wouldn't annoy me as much if it wasn't hypocritical as fuck considering your own read on Dr. Rawr.
-How is my position on Oarfish bad.

You're literally just nitpicking several of my points (most of your scumread is based off of like one post) without bothering to analyze the rest of my content (no, reads being locked in place isn't good enough).  This is a far cry from when you analyzed literally all of my posts in Code Geass (obviously not expecting you to make a similar level on analysis because of time reasons but yeah).  You're either scum or caught up in a serious case of confirmation bias.

In the post where he votes for O4rfish, Refa just sheeps Bard?s case, in addition to ?what he already said about O4rfish?, implying that there was a hefty pile of reasons as to why he thought O4rfish was scum. The Unvote came with the justification of ?Well I never actually thought the things he was doing were that scummy so yea? which goes against his previous stance of conviction pretty hard.

Are you reading my posts?  I unvoted Oarfish because I didn't believe his scumslip was a scumslip, and SB's explanation of what he was actually saying didn't seem like something I could see scum saying.  That's also why I cut the dude a lot of slack on D2, although some of his posts today are just ugh.  Never did I say "wow, my case on Oarfish is now invalid", fuck I even said that I still viewed his earlier posts as scummy.

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #515 on: April 17, 2015, 08:54:23 PM »
Mreh, still wouldn't lynch Zak over Elieson.  This is less about my townread on Zak (although that obviously factors in to some extent) and moreso that I really don't want to sheep my main scumread.  Can consolidate if I'm forced too, but I'd prefer not.

Droopy dog lurker posting. Also to see if anyone would actually move like they keep saying they will (three no's so far so I doubt it)

Fair enough.  Is he the type of player that only lurks as scum?  Do you buy his RL reasons?

Serela

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #516 on: April 17, 2015, 09:16:06 PM »
Sage Zakeri (5): BT, O4rfish, Serela, NekoNekoRex, Elieson (L-1)
Elieson (4): SB, Refa, Sky Paladin, Sage Zakeri (L-2)
BT (1): Shadoweh

2 hours and 15 minutes left, I think? also I'm home from work hi

Based on what Shadoweh's been saying she's most certainly going to switch vote to Ellieson if she shows up before lynch. So, it's going to be up to someone on one of the wagons to change their mind. Even if it's a "deadline in 2 minutes, just do it" kind of mind change.
<mauvecow> see this is how evil works in reality, it just wears you down with bureaucracy until you don't care anymore

Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #517 on: April 17, 2015, 09:19:31 PM »
I'll consolidate 15 minutes before phase end (the extra 5 minutes will definitely make sure I don't fuck up like I did last time), so if anyone on the Zak wagon wants to change their vote, now's the time to do it.

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #518 on: April 17, 2015, 09:26:55 PM »
I think the only person willing to change would be Oarfish, so I guess bye everyone

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #519 on: April 17, 2015, 09:56:35 PM »
uhhhh oops I kind of forgot that I have a doctor's appointment today, so flip will probably be late. You guys have 1 hour and 34 minutes.

Elieson

  • i herd mafia sucks
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #520 on: April 17, 2015, 09:57:37 PM »
Refa,

remember how well my super duper hours upon hours of tunnel casing worked out for me in Code Geass? I hard-tunneled two town and you, the town-sided ITP. Forgive me for changing up my methods after dropping what was probably my most effort-filled game since FE12, but understand that your frustration with my meta isn't going to net you an accurate scumread/townread. With as much as eclipse and Manix and others go on about how meta is a bad thing, are you holding your vote on me because you're scumreading me or because I'm frustrating you again?



If people were scum for being wrong, then this game would have 3 townies and 11 mafia.  I'm not even bothered by your Dormio scumread (the issue there is more how despite scumreading him and having ample opportunity to vote him, you did not do so), but you have given no reasonable explanation for why you were townreading Rawr.  Yes, I read that post explaining it, but nothing there is strong enough to have Dr. Rawr as one of only two people in your "would not lynch" category.

I think we're playing another Everyone-is-mafia-mafia then :D

I thought Rawr's behavior was townie. I couldn't find scum motivation in his actions, and I wasn't going to sheep the obvious "He's so bloody inactive" or borrow other people's cases. Based on my own interpretation of his play, I thought he was acting in a way that scum would never act as. Kinda like Psych

Quote
OK.

- Why is this scummy?  Generally town is more likely to deathtunnel than scum on Day 1, when scum KNOWS they'll look bad when town flips town.
- You're scumreading him because his vote had too much justification?  Seriously?  What about the actual justification itself?
- Uh...No idea what you mean here.  Please explain.

Not a good case.  Barely analyzes his posts worth analyzing.  Opts to nitpick over very few points which are not scummy.  Why have you not analyzed his later posts today?

Your SB/BT (SBT?) townreads are fine, no real issues to speak of there.

It's not indicative of alignment either way, sadly. However, that's all he did. Had he deathtunneled and done some other things of value, there would be more weight in his words.
I feel like he came up with justification later on. Put down a vote without expecting to get called out for it, then had to produce something to back up the vote he locked himself on to. The dude went on forever with piles and piles of logic and reasoning. HOW THE FUCK DO YOU GO FROM "eh I'll vote X i guess" to "I voted him for reasons 1, 2, 3, 4, 4a-4b-4c and 5". You bring SOMETHING up early on, or state that you have legit reasons and then bring them up. Of course I read his justifications, and they feel like desperate grasping for straws at every little possible thing that could be possible to grasp at
His BT vote was based on O4rfish's case, and he then suddenly goes to scumread O4rfish completely out of the blue. It's https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18246.msg1176397.html#msg1176397 mostly.



Quote
-Dormio wasn't at L-1 for the longest time, so this is wrong.
-That's fine.  What's not fine is when you say "I CAN'T SEE SCUM SAYING SOMETHING LIKE THIS" *keeps my vote on Oarfish regardless*.  Why leave your vote in that case?
-...If both of the wagons were town.  I already said this.  Why would you need to make an empty unvote as town?
-Dropping your #1 scumread isn't scummy, it's the fact that you never deigned to mention this until you were called out for it.  Again, why?
-How are my reads locked in place at all?
-Seriously?
-Fuck you, I already explained why I was non conclusive.  It's because a player I was null on for the entire game was still null after I ISOed him.  This is such a farfetched conclusion, like how would I not know whether or not I'd want to bus him as scum when he was the leading wagon.  Probably wouldn't annoy me as much if it wasn't hypocritical as fuck considering your own read on Dr. Rawr.
-How is my position on Oarfish bad.

You're literally just nitpicking several of my points (most of your scumread is based off of like one post) without bothering to analyze the rest of my content (no, reads being locked in place isn't good enough).  This is a far cry from when you analyzed literally all of my posts in Code Geass (obviously not expecting you to make a similar level on analysis because of time reasons but yeah).  You're either scum or caught up in a serious case of confirmation bias.

Are you reading my posts?  I unvoted Oarfish because I didn't believe his scumslip was a scumslip, and SB's explanation of what he was actually saying didn't seem like something I could see scum saying.  That's also why I cut the dude a lot of slack on D2, although some of his posts today are just ugh.  Never did I say "wow, my case on Oarfish is now invalid", fuck I even said that I still viewed his earlier posts as scummy.

The first two points are reflections on eachother. Mid-phase, my vote is there to apply pressure while I collect my thoughts. End-phase, my vote is off while I briefly try to collect my thoughts.
I got tired of seeing nobody else finding SkyPaladin scummy and I'm not going to do all of the work myself when if people don't agree with me early on, all they'll get is me repeating myself repeating myself repeating myself
-Just kinda feel like you're locked in place on your two current scumreads and you've got your head in the sand about other players
-Yea, srslybruh. I think it's extremely weird that you put "Dr Rawr" in there specifically. Don't care if it's being overly semantics-based, it's along the same premise of why I found SkyPaladin scummy in the first chunk of the game. Town tend to throw out reads and don't bother with specifics quite as often while scum are pretty much obligated to force their reads and positions on other players. This line reads forced, ergo, scummy.
- :( though I don't follow how your Nullread->Nullread and my Nullread->Townread are hypocritical of eachother?
No sigs for you

SB

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #521 on: April 17, 2015, 10:14:29 PM »
I pulled a Dan and forgot this game existed.

SB

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #522 on: April 17, 2015, 10:19:06 PM »
I don't get Zak's BT vote. It felt like a lot of buzzwords being thrown around without a real case. I also feel like the switch to Eli is weird.

I uh... don't really have much to say. Mafia sucks? I think Eli's last post is a bit better so I'm not sure if I would lynch him over Zak at this point.

SB

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #523 on: April 17, 2015, 10:29:02 PM »
Well, uh.

##Unvote
##Vote: Zakeri

That was underwhelming.

SB

  • You are good people
  • Even Dormio
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #524 on: April 17, 2015, 10:29:51 PM »
WAIT SHIT IT WAS AN HOUR EARLY

PX

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #525 on: April 17, 2015, 10:31:07 PM »
Hammer stop

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 3
« Reply #526 on: April 17, 2015, 11:40:34 PM »
Sage Zakeri (6): BT, O4rfish, Serela, NekoNekoRex, Elieson, SB (L-0!)
Elieson (3): Refa, Sky Paladin, Sage Zakeri
BT (1): Shadoweh

Zakeri was too cool for this game. He was a Vanilla Townie.

It is now Night 3. You have 24 hours and 20 minutes to send in your night actions (slowly pushing the deadline back).

Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4 BIRTHDAY UPDATE
« Reply #527 on: April 19, 2015, 01:00:32 AM »
SB was found Seriously Dead. He was a Vanilla Townie.

It is now Day 4. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. If a townie is lynched today, they will be able to ##Kill a player of their choice. You have 72 hours to decide on a lynch.

Sky_Paladin

  • Caution is advised.
  • Unit vector from the center is the surface normal?
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #528 on: April 19, 2015, 01:25:34 AM »
I'd like everybody on the Zak wagon to explain in 50 words or less why Zak was a better lynch than Eli. 

In the meantime, I'll seriously consider self voting in LYLO so I can shoot Serela.  Choices, choices...
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Refa

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #529 on: April 19, 2015, 01:35:06 AM »
Sky, I'm pretty sure it's not LYLO unless I miscounted the numbers?

Also what the fuck was up with that SB kill?  His quickhammer made me doubt my townread on him (and I'm probably not the only one), so I'm not sure what scum has to gain by killing his slot.  Going to look into that as well as the Zak wagon.  Elieson, to answer your question from earlier, it's both (frustration with you and you being scummy)?  I'll reevaluate my read on you (and yes, answer your questions) just in case I'm letting my emotions get the better of me or something like that.

Sky_Paladin

  • Caution is advised.
  • Unit vector from the center is the surface normal?
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #530 on: April 19, 2015, 01:46:00 AM »
It's not LYLO.  I just can't count.  Well there goes my dream of baiting scum to quickhammer me, thus exposing them so I could shoot them. 

That was actually my plan from the start of the game .___.
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http://infinitestateautomaton.wordpress.com/

You want more mafia?
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Serela

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #531 on: April 19, 2015, 02:09:33 AM »
SkyPaladin you seem to try to find Gotchas a bit too much :V Scumteams are generally talking about stuff like that in the QT enough to where it's super unlikely they'd lack the foresight and quickhammer.

Anyway I think my case near the end of d3 against Zak serves as the answer to your question?

Refa:The quickhammer was bad but nowhere near as scummy as you seem to be making it out to be. SB wasn't really an existent scumread of anyone and there actually was quite little danger of Ellie being lynched over Zak if SB voting Ellie didn't actually want Ellie lynched. In fact, SB desiring Zak over Ellie would make it practically impossible to lynch Ellie. There'd be no reason for scum to tactically quickhammer; some risk, but basically no logical gain?

Lynchings... :T Hmm. I need to reread Refa at some point today. Ellie and BT are contenders, the former of which also needs a reread. And Shadoweh still isn't a townread. NNR/SkyPal still are town and O4rfish is probably town as well, I forgot if I ever mentioned that?
<mauvecow> see this is how evil works in reality, it just wears you down with bureaucracy until you don't care anymore

Serela

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #532 on: April 19, 2015, 02:19:56 AM »
Eh, Refa's reactions to stuff make it sound like he's not scum. I'll keep putting off any indepth analysis because it's probably not necessary and there's bigger fish to fry.

Okay, I guess I'm not convinced enough about BT/Ellie to call them big fish, but I can easily see them slipping scum, at least... :T At least BT? I probably want to vote BT. But I'll be doing rereads before that.
<mauvecow> see this is how evil works in reality, it just wears you down with bureaucracy until you don't care anymore

NekoNekoRex

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #533 on: April 19, 2015, 02:42:50 AM »
imo Zak lacked a townie drive and most of his votes were reactionary or lackluster in general. He didn't really try even when he was going to be lynched, so a scum flip seemed likely in the same vein as rawr.

Anyway cool my Oarfish scumread still carries with the Zak lynch. So let's continue with that

##Vote: Oarfish
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

O4rfish

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 2
« Reply #534 on: April 19, 2015, 03:28:52 AM »
The problem with NNR is that they have yet to include a valid reason as to why they think the person is scum.

[9:49:09] <Purvis> Generally not, but your mother may be an exception.

Sky_Paladin

  • Caution is advised.
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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #535 on: April 19, 2015, 03:36:50 AM »
Perhaps we should lynch one of NNR/Oarfish, and then if we're wrong, they'll shoot the other. Then we can be done with this cut and paste silliness.

Otoh getting everybody's "who you would shoot" pick might narrow down our pool very easily.

I'd probably shoot Serela/Elieson.
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You want more mafia?
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Serela

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #536 on: April 19, 2015, 03:45:53 AM »
Lynching NNR or SkyPal is a ridiculous proposition in the first place, you don't go around lynching townies just so they can get a shot. ;_; And most people support that NNR is town? Oh wait. SB died. I'm running out.

Maybe I should vote Ellie over BT because I can better trust in BT's future actions even if they-are- coming from scum? I'd probably be lynching Ellie after BT anyway.
<mauvecow> see this is how evil works in reality, it just wears you down with bureaucracy until you don't care anymore

Serela

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Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #537 on: April 19, 2015, 03:47:17 AM »
D2 votals alone os a strong argument for NNRtown, we've been over this. Play wise I'd far sooner lynch BT than NNR.
<mauvecow> see this is how evil works in reality, it just wears you down with bureaucracy until you don't care anymore

Serela

  • Moon Tiara Magic
  • VIA PIZZA SLINGING
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #538 on: April 19, 2015, 03:49:59 AM »
Since I know it's going to be asked, I'd be shooting between the people I've been talking about wanting lynched, of course. BT/Ellie/Shadoweh. Which one is more likely? No idea, there's an entire day between now and then and I both need to do rereads and see more Shadoweh content get made.
<mauvecow> see this is how evil works in reality, it just wears you down with bureaucracy until you don't care anymore

O4rfish

  • something seems fishy
  • paranoia 4 lyfe
    • Ask an Oarfish!
Re: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Day 4
« Reply #539 on: April 19, 2015, 03:54:54 AM »
My scumreads are BT for meta, Elie for a bland sort of scumminess, and NNR because I just can't see Town tunneling this hard with so little content.
I'd probably shoot BT just because vig->lurker.
Most people have expressed a willingness to lynch Elie, and with me gone people could finally get a clear read on NNR. 
I'm fairly well convinced the two remaining scum are in that pool of three players.
[9:49:09] <Purvis> Generally not, but your mother may be an exception.