Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over

[Refa]

ps photostatting sux

[Vhaltz]

Hammer/Deadline shut up etc.

Now wait for Prims to wake up someday.

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

Dr Rawr (7) - SB, Serela, NekoRex, Bardiche, Zakeri, O4fish, Refa (L-0!)
NekoRex (2) - Shadoweh, Dr Rawr
Elieson (1) - Sky_Paladin
O4rfish (1) - BT
Sky_Paladin (1) - Elieson

Dr Rawr was lynched. He was a Mafia Goon.

It is now Night 2. You have 24 hours and 7 minutes to send in your night actions.

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

sorry guys, like I said 72 hour night :^)

anyway: Bardiche received axe to the face. Or axe. He was a Vanilla Townie.

It is now Day 3. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to hammer. You have 72 hours to decide on a lynch.

[Refa]

I'm the best and that was totally intended and not me fucking up in any way.  I already ISO'd the flipped scum dude anyways, but I guess I'll just skim it for interactions again.  Honestly don't see how it'd affect my reads though, since he was basically a lurker anyways...

[SB]

My reads during the night:

Obvtown: SB, NNR
Town: Bardiche, Zakeri, Sky Paladin
Probably Town: Serela, Refa
Null: Oarfish, Shadoweh, BT
Scum: Elieson

NNR was the dude scum tried to counterwagon. Zak and Bard were the ones who pushed it beyond the point of no return. Sky was the guy Rawr tried lynching Day 1 and iirc was the first person to actually give Rawr some attention. Serela should probably be higher for pushing the wagon to get started but I have weird gutvibes and I think Refa is town on tone and for the hammer.

Oarfish is unreadable, Shadoweh slot has no content and I don't remember BT's. Elieson is still basically the same as he was before. I should reread the nulls at some point but I kind of thought I would be killed so I didn't bother rereading when the night was actually happening.

So uh.

##Vote: Elieson

Yeah.

[Serela]

I have meta for powerlynching my scumbuddies anyway (although even I probably wouldn't shove them off a cliff -that- hard, almost no one was thinking about rawr enough to start a new wagon on him) so I wasn't really expecting obvtown reads. Wow, I'm dumb for not realizing NNR is obvtown though, getting easy clears on people is my favorite thing too  :fail: Clearly the last several months of no motk mafia has made me rusty.

Shadoweh, who has nothing to analyze... BT, whose content I want to sheep but whose D2 could understandably be scum (scum doing a fairly good job, but still)... and, imo, ellieson gets into the unreadable area for me too, but I think it's just because I've never seen him play before so I don't know how realistic it is to excuse the weird stuff he's done like vote someone all day over hammering 5 minutes to deadline. And then SB isn't clear to non-SBs, but really, everyone else on the list is a higher priority than him to me too.

Out of that, it narrows down to voting Elieson.

##Vote Elieson

[Sky_Paladin]

I think Bard was a bizarre night kill; scum!me would have shot Refa or basically any of the swing voters from NNR onto Rawr.  So iirc that's Bard, Oarfish...and then Oarfish would have been seen as the designated scum mislynch in lylo, leaving Refa or Bard.  Refa is basically conftown for his unnecessary hammer of scum so him not being hit in an absence of town docs means scum deliberately left him alive to hit Bard.  That looks like a player meta or player connection type motivation for the hit; I'll have to ISO Bard to be sure, iirc he was leaning on Oarfish/NNR only.  Oarfish is probably town for his vote on Rawr as he was no longer a counterwagon at this stage. 

I'm a little suspicious of Shadoweh for voting alongside Rawr, the way it happened though was 'Going afk until after phase end, here is my vote' and then Rawr voted afterwards.  Rawr's vote was 100% sheep Bard even though 'gut read NNR town' and then rambling on about BT here. 

i wouldbe voting BT right now but looking at the wagon we have zakeri who has made one post about his vote and that was him agreeing with oarfish theory on who the scum team is which i think kinda fell apart when he voted NNR.

looks like Oarfish's scum team theory is pretty damn solid imo

I established that I wanted to keep NNR in the game over Rawr, and voted Eli because I thought Eli was scum - Rawr looked like a scummy lurker lynch and I would rather lynch an active scum.  Eli's vote late day 2 was pretty bad since it was basically an excuse to vote not-Rawr, and included this list of reads:

:Would Lynch:
SkyPaladin
O4rfish
BT

:Wouldn't Lynch:
Selery
Dr Rawr

Missing some players e.g. Bard/Shadoweh.  Interesting "wouldn't lynch" pile since by this time the Rawr wagon was only SB/Serela and it should have been an easy scum push to finish off the L-3 NNR unless all scum were already on the wagon.  Players at that stage were Bardiche, O4rfish, Shadoweh, Dr Rawr, so that's unlikely.  Also has BT in scum list in agreement with Rawr so *interesting* and does not include NNR, the main wagon at the time. 

The main issue I have with scum!Eli is that it means Eli attempted to start a new wagon when an NNR lynch seemed most likely, while Rawr was voting NNR.  It would seem to me scum!Eli would have voted NNR instead of Sky.  Not only did Eli not vote, she didn't list NNR as a viable lynch.  That suggests to me that a scum!Eli was more concerned about getting pressure off of Rawr by making the lynch seem inaccessible than addressing the key issue of 'is NNR scummier than Rawr or not?'.  Incidentally, that's the issue I raises when I said "Let's keep NNR over Rawr", and that earned me a vote from Eli. 

Eli can you maybe explain some of your reads please. 

[Serela]

Oh yeah, I completely forgot that Elie actually defended Dr.Rawr and put him in a "would not lynch" list.

[NekoNekoRex]

So, people I'd lynch today are Oarfish, Elieson, and Shadoweh.

[Serela]

Isn't that kind of a given though :S

[NekoNekoRex]

Yeah. I'm just not sure who I want to vote most. I also don't want to powerwagon Elie needlessly so early in the day.

Sheeping Skypal here, I kind of agree that Scum!Elie not mentioning me is kind of strange, but he didn't give a read on who he wanted to consolidate on at deadline either, and he defended Rawr. I guess Scum!Elie didn't want to put all his eggs in one basket? His literally OMGUS vote is super bad and he fails to address any other wagons besides Rawr (who he defends) or even look at the deadline time (which he ironically asked about). I don't think he can use the same 'deadline was too busy' excuse twice in a row, either.

Shadoweh basically went v/la and parked his vote on me with no reason. Which would be a good move for scum... if I had been lynched.

Oarfish, pretty much not going to go over this again. His singular townread on Bard is important to note though, since you might find a correlation between that and our N2 death.
Oarfish consolidates on Rawr but importantly fails to actually give any reason he thinks Rawr is scum. In fact he seems to subtly try to dissuade the wagon at deadline

In the abstract, Rawr doesn't have a lot of content and one large chunk of it is anti-town. I don't think he would be a valuable member of a scum team, but I do like the idea of lynching him if it would get other people to post more.

...or not so subtly.

Priorities and goals. This post makes it sound like yours are not Town.
And if I thought we could swing the wagon, I might even press this harder.

##Vote: Oarfish

Seriously though lynch Oarfish

[NekoNekoRex]

That vote was an easier decision then I thought after all

[O4rfish]

Day 1:



Day 2:



One interpretation that leaps out at me is scumteam: Dr Rawr, Elieson, Serela.

[Sky_Paladin]

That's kind of implied subtly by Eli's scumreads

:Wouldn't Lynch:
Selery
Dr Rawr

Which is why I want Eli to talk about all of her reads. 

[Elieson]

Any considerations that maybe Elie is just really bad a playing this game? evidently my reads have been absolutely awful since i thought Dormio was scum and Rawr was town.


OUT OF THOSE THAT ARE LIVING: there are zero clears so people playing this Process of Elimination game in Day three are automatically on my scumdar

1. NekoRex
2. Sky_Paladin
3. ActionDan Shadoweh
4. Zakeri
8. Selery
9. O4rfish
10. SB
11. Elieson
12. Refa
14. BT

Let me start with a precursor of I had no opinion of the sparse and unmemorable Zakeri ( whom, on a preliminary glance, hasn't done much of anything ). Upon a closer look at the handful of posts that Zak has made; how the fuck do you bulletlist on this forum, clicking List gives me two why do i have to type out the bbcode for everything here why can't this forum just have WYSIWYG god
-Contributions amount to Day one's deathtunnel on Dormio
-Vote on BT was absolutely terrible but during Day 1 it just looked like what he called it; lazy. To see justification after the fact of the magnitude that was presented just doesn't look right. It's justification, sure, but it's a lot, which makes me wonder how a "lazy vote" could possibly have had such a foundation holding it up
-A townread heavily based on a Day 1 scumread which wasn't really a scumread until Day 2

Analysis: Upper tier scumread, held back only by lack of presence.

Next, I'm taking a calm cool and collected look at BT. Looking at his Day 1 presence,
+Upon a reread, his Day 1 posts were pretty thin, sans his pretty hefta post about Mitsuki and Bard. I actually don't think he would be scum shooting mitsuki based on how much he maintained communication with her during Day 1.
+The attitude and posting style don't "reek of scum intent", especially Day 2's O4rfish posts, as in, they don't read as forced, which is a good thing when looking for townreads
-Content still seems sparse, and comments on the rest of the game are eh at best

Analysis: In hindsight, didn't really handle properly. Wouldn't lynch this phase, but not overly town or anything

I haven't really even read SB's posts. Little in them upon preliminary glances made me really want to pay attention to them...I should probably do just that.

-RVS'd Dr Rawr, and utilizing meta here entirely, I think it's not worth ignoring the flip given SB's bussing habits. This is minor at best but it's a thought that crossed my mind so I'd be clouding my judgment if i forced myself not to look at SB as much as I could
HOLY FUCK I JUST FOUND THE WYSIWYG TOGGLE SWITCH! MOTIVATION=FOUND
+Dormio pushes look fine
-Late D1 one-liners really didn't amount to much in terms of contribution. It's easy to ask questions

Analysis: Overall presence is good enough though posting one liners doesn't give me much to bounce ideas off. Leaning town

Next up, Refa.
=For starters, some responses.
---I unvoted and didn't vote Dormio 9 minutes before phase end because like i've said four times, I didn't want to rush phase end early when people were around discussing things.
---When I have no idea how to read X player, and someone is evidently putting up a decent yet questionable case on X player, I might agree with it (and sheep it) but that doesn't mean I agree with it 100%. Mits had a decent case on O4rfish at the time but I didn't have any more confident reads at the time except SkyPaladin, but I wasn't 100% sold on it and I didn't think that she was either, hence my inquisition
---Why would I ever have a reason not to vote (unless it's like, an unnecessary phase end hammer or something)?
---Yes, I did drop my case on my #1 scumread at the time, because I couldn't get him lynched. People didn't agree with me and were voting elsewhere, making my vote on SkyPaladin neigh useless. I wasn't benefiting anyone by holding a vote where it wouldn't yield any fruit. I already argued my casing, and if the others don't agree with it, then that's their preference. We can't always lynch our #1 scumreads.
And onto thoughts
-I don't feel like Refa's reads are solid. Like, they have continuity, but they feel more or less locked in place
-Questionable position with Dr Rawr, especially this line:

Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum vi scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.

Not currently relevant, but I don't see this as scum v scum interactions.  Can't really get any reads off of Dr. Rawr individually though.
which was a direct response to Dr Rwar. It just doesn't read right...I can't put my finger on it exactly
-His ISO of Dr Rawr produced such nonconclusive thoughts that it almost reads like Refa's not sure if he should push who might be his buddy
-Presented a bad position on the O4rfish, granted you only retracted your vote because you thought it'd be silly for him to give up when you admit to never buying the "scumclaim" to begin with

Analysis: Mild null-leaning-town read that's become an unexpected scumread


I've had a townread on Selery all game and that hasn't changed, and O4rfish has gone from maybe scum to probably town due to such ridiculous behaviour and content being too absent minded and reading his posts as being made so instinctually that I just can't really see him as scum at this point. I guess I have three people left to closely analyze but I need to get sleep because tomorrow I'm chaperoning my daughter's field trip and need to be kinda rested up so at this point, my list of catch up

1. NekoRex
2. Sky_Paladin
3. ActionDan Shadoweh

##Vote Refa



**Edit**
Cut by O4rfish's charts which somehow resulted in my entire posts becoming BROKEN, so i've spent the past 5 minutes removing size=78% tags from my post ughh

[Elieson]

**Edit Edit**

Dr Rawr was town to me, sorry to burst everyone's bubble.

-Day 1 wasn't anything special
Day 2 featured:
+natural feeling posts plus a vote on SkyPaladin, whom I was (probably still am I'll confirm later) scumreading
+Gave little reason to vote for Neko when there really wasn't any need to
=Tried to justify O4rfish's confusing spreadsheets, which still are confusing (and have been wrong on several accounts so far so I'm not really that willing to pursue cases founded upon his poorly explained googledocs
=Overall lack of content just read like a lurker and well I guess I let lurkers get away from me but I don't like lynching people with shit activity in earlier phases of games when there's actual scum that can be hunted

[Sky_Paladin]

I've had a townread on Selery all game and that hasn't changed,

Why?

[Sky_Paladin]

Also, can you explain how either BT or Refa's votes in the last five minutes of the phase constitutes a scummy action that overrides anything else they may have done in the game?

[O4rfish]

So I really like my NNR case, and I definitely don't like the O4rfish wagon anymore. With 21 hours left, it's time to toss down chips. Tell me why the Elieson or BT lynches are superior to NNR, who also overreacted heavily to being voted by O4rfish and seems too bothered to just be a simple townie!

I think that the bottom line is that I hate everyone for blindly sheeping Bard.

Yeah, my reasons for voting Rawr did not include that I had a strong feeling he was scum.  Your quote of me shows exactly how I felt, and I do not see how it makes me look bad in any way.

But please, why would I kill the person who read me as Town, and leave alive the person who only unvoted me because he was worried what other people thought about his reads?

I want to scumread Oarfish, yes, but I don't want to be lynched because I am scumreading Oarfish

Tell me that isn't a scummy thing to say.

[O4rfish]

Of course, maybe Bard died because he was the most fervent believer in NNR=Scum?

[NekoNekoRex]

Of course, maybe Bard died because he was the most fervent believer in NNR=Scum?

But please, why would I kill the person who read me as Town, and leave alive the person who only unvoted me because he was worried what other people thought about his reads?

You provided your own reason there, mate.

Tell me that isn't a scummy thing to say.

Considering my over-reaction to your utterly empty case on me got a scum wagon on me, yeah, I think I might have been forced to switch votes or get a lynch. My switch wasn't even that good, yeah, but it was something to show I'm trying to find scum.

Your posts are still completely devoid of scumhunting content aside from confusing spreadsheets. And while analyzing votes is nice, you still need to analyze the posts behind them and point out some scum intent.

Hey Oarfish, where's your vote?
Hey Oarfish, who do you think is scum and why?
Hey Oarfish, what do you think of my case on you?
Hey Oarfish, when are you going to stop speculating and actually hunt scum?

[NekoNekoRex]

If you were town and didn't think Rawr was scum, why did you vote him? There were other wagons you could have easily pushed. Hell, you could have pushed me. There was enough time to at least try and push a turbo wagon, but all you do is say "I wish I could" and just vote Rawr in the least committed switch of the game. It looks pretty glaringly like a bus vote.

You haven't committed to anything all game, except for your read on me, and that's such a weak vote that you refuse to even come up with a decent reason to put it down.
(note: attacking me over a D2 post about dormio is not a decent reason)

[O4rfish]

These two posts were what first led me to believe you were Town.  Then in d2 your style just fell apart, twitterposting how much you hate me, except for the one post casing SB.  Many of the posts do not show Town intent.  Your case on me is laughable.  What about your ED2 case still applies? 

You must have a really high opinion of my persuasive skills if you think I could have gotten you lynched LD2.  Let me give you a hypothetical: 1 hour left, I try for a wagon swap, not enough people switch over.  No lynch, Town is punished.  Another hypothetical: the Scum version of me disappears rather than vote for Rawr, no lynch, Town is punished, I look slightly more scummy than I did before, but Scum still has 3 living players. 
If I were scum, either of those would be much more preferable. 

Let's examine Bard's death as well.  Scum Oarfish kills Bard because I like to get rid of allies and keep around people who want to vote for me.  Bard was voting for me because I didn't have much content, but when I started producing he changed his mind.  What would make Bard go after me, except laziness or hypocrisy?  Or, Scum NNR kills Bard because you're tired of losing debates against him.  Bard was voting you because of multiple reasons.  He never even mentioned a reason to leave you alone.  What could you do to change his mind, except kill him?  Really, if Scum killed the people who believed in them and left alive the people who thought they were scum, how would they even survive to LYLO?

The ONLY reason I'm not convinced NNR is scum is because of interactions.

anyways imma trust bardiche on this one. my gut is telling me NNR is actually town but hey im pretty sure bardiche is right more often than not.

At this point Rawr has 2 votes and he brings your wagon up to 4. 

[]##unvote[/b]
[]##vote: rawr[\b]
Got voting on my phone is a pita
Not me over me, dont like all the sheep on my wagon, esp rawr since he guts me as town.
 Gut says scumteam is sb, elie, rawr. Will kick and scream until one of them is lynched today.

Your content is pretty bad, but I don't see the interactions with Rawr being damning the way they are with Serela and Elie.

And really, calling me out as scummy for saying "Let's lynch this lurker to encourage other people to vote more" is just disturbing.  Please take some time to reevaluate your priorities, because I don't think anyone will thank you for tunneling me. 

[O4rfish]

I'm not only voting Serela because his reasons are not strong, otherwise I could have voted SB or you on your Dormio vote.
The main point is that I think Serela was trying to look serious and contributing with his vote yet I see no reason why he'd actually suspect Dormio. Town can make weak votes at this point of the game, but it wouldn't feel like they're trying too hard to look as contributing.
@Serela: thoughts on the game?

I was going to post a hypothesis tying together the scumteam, but then I realized some people haven't even entered the fray.
Mitsuki, why are you asking Serela for his thoughts on the game when he's been posting more than most people?

My thoughts on the game are the only thing that's actually happened is the Mistuki vs. Me and that whilst I could make a vote at this point that's marginally better than the one on Dormio, it's by such a small amount that it's not worth hopping back and forth between flimsy wagons for.

serela isnt scum you people are crazy you heard it from dr rawr first.
i have no idea what mitsuki means by bard being to aggressive. would mitsuki give some kind of obvious example of bardiche being a jerk as town and being even more of a jerk as scum?
##Vote: Sky paladin
i dont like the wording on his #71 that seems to make out that scum has to be either mitsuki or serela

(quote from Oarfish) I actually find this question a little weird, because all but one post was just responses to Mitsuki that didn't actually elaborate about the game. (What? This doesn't jibe with your earlier response)
I agree with Elieson about SP's "don't 100% believe Serela is scum" looking a little weird, overjustifying votes is something to be suspicious of from my experience (not elaborating unless someone deems it necessary because :effort:) and since the game was still nearly RVS, well, yeah.
...oh the reread is over, right, the game only just started <.<; Nothing else sticks out to me. TBH I had some Mitsuki stuff I pulled out as looking too tryhard to the point of being suspicious but when I actually examined it I changed my mind. I dunno, I still feel like there might be something there, but I can't pinpoint what's triggering my gut. I'll just have to leave it keeping an eye on Mitsuki for now to see if that goes away or not.
...Dormio hasn't posted, I'm not sure if that should make me want to leave my vote there more, or less? I guess when I think about it, even though the SkyP wonkiness is light, the reason I was voting Dormio is even more ephemeral and I shouldn't even be treating it like a real vote :V (Since it somewhat matters in this situation- yeah, the Dormio vote was vaguely serious, but only enough to get over RVS tier vote strength)
##unvote ##Vote Dormio

It should be obvious, but since Rawr flipped red I no longer believe Scum is positioning itself optimally.  Rawr is a straightforward player, and so I will analyze things from a viewpoint of Scum being fairly straightforward.
During RVS, Rawr makes a crappy post and Serela's whaleface convinces 3 of us to vote him.  Serela never chases this any further, and makes only one other post referencing Rawr, putting him fifth on the hit list.  Mitsuki starts questioning him about his sheep onto Dormio, which he never gives a straight answer to.  Skypal votes Serela because of his reactions to Mitsuki, which causes Elie and Rawr to start a Skypal wagon which Serela joins.  After the wagon stalls out, Elie and Serela ride the Oarfish wagon into the ground while Rawr does nothing for the rest of the day.

Mitsuki is killed.  This could point to Serela. 

D2: Elie votes BT while Rawr and Serela are absent.  When they show up, Serela starts a wagon for Rawr while Rawr jumps on the NNR wagon.  Skypal and Elie tunnel each other, but Rawr never fights back against Serela and dies.
Based on this, I think Serela has a strong connection to Rawr, and Elie probably does as well when you consider Skypal's case on him.

If Bard was killed by this (or really any) scumteam, it would be because he was obvTown and a LYLO hindrance, as well as his perceived strength as a player, not because of his reads. 

[O4rfish]

We can rely on Refa, SB and Skypal to be active this phase, maybe BT as well, but I would really appreciate it if players such as Zak and Shadoweh got off the couch and posted some good content.

My scumreads: NNR for content, Elie and Serela for interactions (also sheeping Skypal and Refa on Elie), a faint BT for meta, and Zak and Shadoweh for powerlurking.
Null reads: Refa, SB, Skypal
No town reads left (besides me of course)

##Vote: Serela

[Sky_Paladin]

Interesting. 

Why would you vote Serela over Eli?

[O4rfish]

I have a stronger case against Serela. Signs point to Rawr taking a dive for Serela, and Serela killing Mitsuki. If Elie is scum, he's not the driving force.

[O4rfish]

Also I haven't ISOd Elie. Tomorrow.

[Sky_Paladin]

I have a secondary reason for asking, but I need some time to pass for it to become useful.