Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over

[Serela]

There's two reasons.

First, between logic both and meta, it seems incredibly likely Rawr is scum at this point, as I explained earlier. Lynching scum is A+

Second, NNR actually generates discussion, and I have a minor fear that lynching him will cause d3 to be like d2, except with even less talk because half of today was about or by nnr. There'd be the wagon analysis, but...

Also because I don't really see Elieson being a real counterwagon to NNR to make wagon analysis more useful tomorrow, and the SB case... well, I just read NNR's thing about it, but the issue is I read SB's posts that are linked to and think just about everything he says is good and stuff that I agree with more or less completely? So... I can't get behind that, either.

And I don't even know what the case behind the BT wagon -is-. Ellieson is apparently still voting him for hammering, and Zak is still voting him because of sheeping that he changed his mind about later? What? I might be remembering something wrong here because that doesn't even make sense, but I have work pretty soon so I can't get drug into a reread vortex or I'll be late.

[NekoNekoRex]

I'd consolidate on Rawr. I would tried a lurker lynch from the start but then I'd just be lynched because our lurker meta is awful and people would just call me a lazy and scum person.

My case on SB is more he has very little conviction in his reads, allowing him to, say, switch his opinion whenever it's convenient for scum, as opposed to having solid reads which give him a more concrete stance he can't easily back out of.

[NekoNekoRex]

NNR can't be right about SB being scum and just sheeping everyone else, because why would he agree with Zak's post about me being Town when Zak's post is actually backing off of a townread on me, unless you think scum would just skim a third-party opinion and agree with it without bothering to grok it first.

Because scum doesn't have to actually try, Oarfish, they CAN get away with it because they're dishonest by nature.

(of course, you could just be his scumbuddy too but I think you're too ridiculous for that)

[Serela]

I started thinking "Wait, isn't there supposed to be more people playing? Who are they again?" And I think a third of the playerlist hasn't posted in ever. *Facedesk* Let's see. SkyPal went v/la. Refa promised a post in a few hours and never did it, indicating he needs scrutiny later in the game. (Not today due to closeness of deadline, it'd just be a distraction) Ellieson never got past being frustrated with the hammer, Shadoweh's slot only just replaced in and was otherwise gone all day, BT is... not deathly nonexistant but actually pretty cruisy come to think of it.

Wait, I could define almost every person's d2 as cruisy, fuck. I'm not sure if I can even hold any water with that against anyone (other than someone with like, one non-fluff d2 post at all) with how today's gone.

I'm finally trying to analyze the game and the only place I'm getting is "Nearly everyone is guilty of low presence".

NNR:See, I like you. You're putting more effort into the game than almost anyone else. Unfortunately, mafia kinda falls apart if half the playerlist lurks, because then there's so little for the others to work off. :T I don't know if SB feels like that because there's just nothing solid to work with, or if you only look good because there's no one else trying? Ugh.

[Serela]

worktime, poof, see you all between 1~2 hours of deadline~

Deadline is in 7 hours btw

[SB]

You do realize the biggest wagon is at a stunning ~*~3 votes~*~ right? Okay, I guess it's true there's been little discussion about a rawr lynch.

But that's probably just because he's so drastically nonexistent no one actually thinks about it.

Yeah, but there's a question of "can we even get this lynch???" which is admittedly still a problem with every other wagon but uh... yeah. Killing lurkers doesn't sound like a bad idea at this point.

My case on SB is more he has very little conviction in his reads, allowing him to, say, switch his opinion whenever it's convenient for scum, as opposed to having solid reads which give him a more concrete stance he can't easily back out of.

I'll admit to lacking conviction because well... I don't feel that confident.

Also I said I townread Zak, I didn't say that I agreed with him. I just thought that his post on Oarfish read like a natural flow of thoughts in a way that's harder for scum to fake.

##Unvote
##Vote: Rawr

@Prims, what happens if we can't get a lynch?

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm not going to be around at deadline and I don't really have time to do anything today.  Wall and vote inc. 

Out of NNR/Rawr, I'd prefer to keep NNR because he's posting a lot more.  I generally agree with Bard on NNR though especially re: over reacting so I'm mmmm.  Rawr promised content here and posted this which was quite underwhelming.  Contrast with NNR's case and vote on SB.  I'd keep NNR in for today over Rawr fo'sure. 

I don't think Oarfish is scum.  Content looks legit even though I don't understand it. 

I feel that Serela is passively encouraging wagons without getting involved.  Rawr vote was late and the Sky!Hate from day 1 is missing, which strongly indicates she was defensive/reaction rather than legit scumhunting.  I don't rule out that Mits was hit because she spent most of the game wanting Serela dead although vote on Bard so shrug.  Maybe scumteam just feared Vhaltz.  I wouldn't know, I've never seen him play.  Nobody else really cares, I'm certain Serela is scum but I'm tired of trying to lynch scum!Serala every game and nobody cares because *~it's Serela~* I think my gameplan is probably to engineer my lynch in day 3 so I can just shoot her.  Unless Bard wants to do it. 

I think Elli's giant wall in 211 is basically terrible, she's arguing for my lynch based on an evaluation between Mits/Serela.  I said I'd rather keep Mitsuki, it seemed scum agreed, that's why all my friends always die.  Eli's content is driven around defending Serela by attacking me - all her points are 'Sky said xyz about Serela' but I feel if she was legit scum hunting she would actually investigate if what Sky said was accurate or not.  Would totes lynch Eli. 

This post here looks like appeal to something or other, wifom or something.  Don't like it even though the gif is fun, do post more. 

I like Refa and I like Zak.  I liked Dan/Shadoweh because I've never ever seen Dan town read me so I'll give his replacement a free thumbs up until she blows it by being passive-reactive. 
This BT is not a BT I am familiar with.  I expect BT to post occasional but quality.  We're mostly getting snipe comments.  Odd. 
I like Zak, I like Bard but I'm wary because I've seen this Bard before in the infamous Sky-hammers-conftown-Shadoweh incident. 

So let's see. 
I'm town reading Zak, Refa. 
I kind of like SB, NNR's case not withstanding. 
I am null on Bard.  I like his content and his aggression.  I also liked that he along with Mits/Dan were probably the reason I wasn't mislynched Day 1 so that I could carry out my mission of shooting Serela in the next day phase, and I am town, so, I'm inclined to believe scum wouldn't lift their finger to save me.  I think he's also driving the main activity in the game so I'm inclined to believe town!Bard for now.  Sad he wouldn't vote Serela day 1, it would have been beautiful.  Alas. 
Shadowdan I want to town read but realistically there's not enough content.  Null. 
BT is more scum than null imo, I don't remember him really existing aside from failing to commit to a wagon/wanted to be the hammerer or something.  I can't remember. 
So that leaves Eli and Rawr.  Eli I legit see as scum, Rawr I see as not contributing/generally lurker lynch over scumhunt lynch.  Desirable if necessary. 

I haven't had time to read in great detail so I'll sheep my main town read -

BT (2) - Elieson, Zakeri
Elieson (2) - Refa, SB

I think Eli is more scummy than BT, but BT is looking bad too.  So I feel like Eli's vote is more of a bus.  She spends more of her posts talking about how she longs for my death but where's the vote and case?  Oh well let's vote BT zzz ok seems legit. 

2besrs; BT sniping Phase End early in obvious activity was bad and his current vote on O4rfish is equally bad because he's voting for someone who's obviously doing things, and just needs to clarify them.

For the record I do not think O4rfish is scum right now. Hindsight is 20/20 but I would've voted for Dormio, had Phase not ended while i was typing up my vote post

It seems like Eli's vote on BT is because he sniped the hammer.  I don't really feel that 4 minutes to deadline is unacceptable even with 'obvious activity'.  I asked for a phase extension for 'obvious activity' and it was denied.  It's been done to death that lynch is better than no-lynch and in this setup nobody can accidentally lynch the cop.  I think this is unreasonable of Eli. 

I also do not like the arbitrary clear on Oarfish despite earlier saying in her post that she was '900% confused by oarfish' and his spreadsheets, and the hindsight-Dormio vote.  It doesn't mean anything. 

##vote Elieson

[Sky_Paladin]

I also do not like the arbitrary clear on Oarfish

To clarify, the reason I do not like it is because Eli criticized BT's vote on Oarfish as part of the basis for her own vote on BT.  She then stated that she thought Oarfish was town, even though she said she was confused by his spreadsheets. 

I could extend the benefit of doubt to anybody who said they didn't understand Oarfish' spreadsheet because even with colored circles and stars I don't get it.  I couldn't plausibly see anybody using this greyspace as a valid reason to vote.  Part of the reason for Eli's vote on BT was because BT voted Oarfish after Oarfish had done what appeared to be a /tablefip + information-instead-of-analysis.  BT's vote was what I would consider in the bounds of reasonable activity. 

The other reason for Eli's vote was because she didn't like that he ended the phase with 4 minutes to go. 

These events, while both true, are not evidence of scum intent.  Several players had voted for Oarfish - I did not see Eli evaluate these votes. 

Therefore I feel that Eli's vote is contrived as I don't see her looking for scum or evaluating if town could have done these things. 

[Elieson]

I'm no longer dying on the inside

how much longer until phAse end?

[Elieson]

Sorry to disappoint you Skypaladin but I have a tendency to get irritated at people and vote for them for being irritating, since often times when people irritate me it's because of their scummy play, and this hunch of mine is correct about 60% of the time so I've just learned to embrace it.

Let's reply more to Skypaladin:

O4r: *Posts a bunch of confusing screenshots*
Elie: "I'm confused by your screenshots. Please explain them"
Skypaladin: "Elie looks pretty scummy for this"

Do you see the silliness behind this thought process? If your thoughts don't condense to literally just that, please correct me. If you're going to find me scummy, please do so for actual reasons like you've proven capable of doing, instead of twisting every little thing that I've done, even the things that aren't indicative of anything alignment-wise, into what you portray as scum behavior.

You also think I'm bussing my buddy, when I could've just kept my mouth shut with what you are pretty much reading as a contrived case (which I've been called out for this like 4 times for already).

I'll self-vote if you can give me any solid reason as to scum-motivation behind me voting for BT; I'm still confident that he is scum, just not for the reasons I initially thought, since all he's done this phase has amounted to defending himself and supporting O4rfish on efforts alone. That and his performance yesterphase amounted to little more than appearing at convenient times for phase start and phase end.

I'm aware that these reasons aren't anything definitive, which is what's holding me back from maintaining a vote on BT at this point, but when he flips scum later on, y'all can thank me later. more or less sarcasm, I'm just leaning scum on this guy because still bothered but nothing really solid exists so I think it's more salt on him interrupting me at phase end than anything else

##Unvote

On the Flip Side, I'd like to vote for one who's voting for me (again) soooo let's play with some OMGUS

##Vote SkyPaladin


FWIW I think Rawr's townie in that he's advocating understanding behind the whole "No Lynch" thing, which I agree with.
SB & Refa...I'm not sure. They often scumread me enough and I just spent an entire game two games ago arguing that Refa was scum when he was
O4Rfish is all over the place and poorly justifying his own positions on the players in the game thus far. I'm 180'ing here because he had ample time to clarify himself and solidify his own stances but in the end it looks like he just threw out a pile of pretty sheets that don't necessarily amount to anything, even by my standards (which are pretty low fwiw).

:Would Lynch:
SkyPaladin
O4rfish
BT

:Wouldn't Lynch:
Selery
Dr Rawr

:No real leaning opinion either way:
Anyone Else

[Dr Rawr]

ok you guys look im not some kind of one trick pony that lurks every game as scum.

anyways imma trust bardiche on this one. my gut is telling me NNR is actually town but hey im pretty sure bardiche is right more often than not.
##Vote: NNR
my gut is probably telling me BT is scum but thats just because he also i think has a scum lurk meta and i have nothing else to slam into BT about him possibly being scum. i wouldbe voting BT right now but looking at the wagon we have zakeri who has made one post about his vote and that was him agreeing with oarfish theory on who the scum team is which i think kinda fell apart when he voted NNR. and elieson seems pretty upset BT tried to end the phase early and something about voting oarfish.

i dont actually blame anyone for trying to vote oarfish when he started throwing out the spreadsheets since the day before he had just claimed scum or w/e and then he just tried throwing out confusing shit that nobody actually cares about

[Vhaltz]

Day 2.4 - Votals

NekoRex (4) - Bardiche, O4rfish, Shadoweh, Dr Rawr
BT (2) - Elieson, Zakeri
Elieson (2) - Refa, Skypal
Dr Rawr (2) - SB, Serela
O4rfish (1) - BT
SB (1) -  NNR
Skypal (1) - Elieson

You have ~4 hours remaining in the day. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[NekoNekoRex]

##unvote
##vote: rawr[\b]
Got voting on my phone is a pita

Not me over me, dont like all the sheep on my wagon, esp rawr since he guts me as town.

 Gut says scumteam is sb, elie, rawr. Will kick and scream until one of them is lynched today.

[Refa]

So I uh kind of forgot to finish that post I said I was going to make (I'll try to have it finished ASAP). ;/  I'll consolidate on Rawr if it's necessary to secure a lynch, but otherwise I'm keeping my vote on Elieson/NNR (with a strong preference to Elieson). 

[NekoNekoRex]

I think skypal is town

[NekoNekoRex]

Sb rawr elie doesnt actually make sense b/c of votes but im confident is 2/3 being scum

[Bardiche]

>Try to vote Rawr
>Post in LoL thread
##Unvote
##Vote: DrRawr

[Bardiche]

4 hours and I'm swapping wagons, but "I gutread NNR as Town but trust Bardiche" is scummy as fuck. Could've tied wagons and make a BT lynch happen as per his gutread, chooses to go the easy way and lynch what he thinks is town.

Also appeal to "Bard is seldom wrong" is erroneous, I don't have a very high success rate when it comes to lynching scum early game. It gets easier lategame when there's more posts to read and when scum's devious plans unravel, but at the start I'm just as clueless as Sky Paladin.

[Refa]

Placing the hammer in a game in which Town must lynch or be punished is worthy of at least some towncred.  This is why it is an ideal situation for Scum to be in.
There are 3 defining characteristics of Scum in this game.  They know who is scum and who is town; they are working together; and they are trying to get rid of town.

And yet, noone is townreading BT because he hammered town (I'm townreading him, albeit for different reasons entirely).  I don't see what's so ideal about the situation FYPOV considering that you'd know that both of the wagons are town (so it wouldn't make a difference to scum which one got lynched).

As I said, going for the no-lynch wasn't apparently something Scum wanted to do: they wanted to lynch Town, and they wanted to appear towny while doing so.
To do this, I assume they got on my wagon but voiced concern over whether I was truly Town or Scum, thus getting me lynched while avoiding backlash.
Then they got Dormio lynched while appearing Town. 

Scum can't go for a no lynch.  Again, it's listed in the rules (uh...but I'm actually right this time instead of being woefully misguided).  I'm assuming that town would be punished for no lynching over scum, because it's our job to secure a lynch by deadline (which is why I don't see the logic in what you're saying).

In this hypothetical, there were several Town who were starting wagons and making cases, such that Scum did not need to do so. 

Well, I can see that happening, at least.  It makes sense that town would start a wagon over scum, at least in the earlier days.

Refa's Eli case is good and I feel like Eli's BT vote today doesn't make sense. Cutting out five minutes of discussion time isn't incredibly anti-town unless you think BT blocked scum!Oarfish's lynch... except Eli states that he's townreading Oarfish. I also don't think that the way he seems to have dropped Sky (by not mentioning him at all) is realistic if he was scumreading him because he was Eli's top suspect yesterday. So the fact that he didn't even give Sky a passing mention on it's own is really weird, and when his reasons from voting BT aren't very solid it makes even less sense.

I knew I was forgetting something.  In addition to what you said, Eli dropping Sky is bad because he dropped his scumread because he couldn't get a lynch off on Sky as opposed to because he was townreading Sky (which would be a reasonable explanation as to why he forgot to mention it).

I'm frustrated because I'm being called out for having my vote on nobody when as I said before, people were cramming out posts every couple of seconds.

You're not scummy because you had an empty unvote (even if it's suboptimal, town has done this before), but rather because you had no reason to make such a vote in the first place.

I'm mad because Oarfish's case is bad and nobody cares about it, and Oarfish isn't doing anything about it, or even giving a better reason to vote me. In fact Oarfish pretty much ignores everything I post about him.

actually fuck it, I'm going to do a 180

##Unvote

I don't think Oarfish is scum any more. It doesn't even make sense to me now. I think he's just horrible at scumhunting. His vote on my is absolutely ridiculous, but then he has the audacity to follow up and assume that not only Bard is sheeping him (as opposed to voting me for a completely different and unrelated reason), but also that he already assumes I'm going to flip scum and has totally given up looking for more reasons to lynch me in favor of finding my buddies. I honestly think scum wouldn't do that just because it doesn't make sense to even 'pressure' me that way.

This 180 is pretty bad.  Like, it's not bad because it's a 180 (town does that shit all of the time), but because of how contradictory it actually is.  Earlier you mentioned that Oarfish is putting zero effort into pushing you and ignoring everything you say.  Your reason for dismissing it is that he's horrible at scumhunting (please attack the case, not the person), which still doesn't explain your other issues with him.  I dunno, it just comes across as you jumping ship after realizing that noone really wants to lynch Oarfish today.

4 hours and I'm swapping wagons, but "I gutread NNR as Town but trust Bardiche" is scummy as fuck. Could've tied wagons and make a BT lynch happen as per his gutread, chooses to go the easy way and lynch what he thinks is town.

I can get where you're coming from, but I can't see the scum motivation there.  Why wouldn't he just say "not me over me" as scum (especially considering that this seems to be his reason for voting NNR over BT) when it'd be 1) a lot easier and 2) less likely to be scrutinized.

NNR's SB read is kind of bad?  Obviously SB would lack conviction early on in the game, most people do.  Your issue with his deadline content is reasonable but it doesn't really bother me in the same way that Elieson's does.  You also pretty much misrepped every single point in his post; neither his reads on you nor Elieson are sheeps in any way.

[Dr Rawr]

4 hours and I'm swapping wagons, but "I gutread NNR as Town but trust Bardiche" is scummy as fuck. Could've tied wagons and make a BT lynch happen as per his gutread, chooses to go the easy way and lynch what he thinks is town.

Also appeal to "Bard is seldom wrong" is erroneous, I don't have a very high success rate when it comes to lynching scum early game. It gets easier lategame when there's more posts to read and when scum's devious plans unravel, but at the start I'm just as clueless as Sky Paladin.

i didnt really see a BT wagon happening anyways i have to go do other stuff so oh well

[WHMZakeri]

i didnt really see a BT wagon happening anyways i have to go do other stuff so oh well

pretty much any wagon could have been happening at this point.
in any case, townread vs. voting for townread despite also townreading him.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dr. Rawr.

[NekoNekoRex]

>Get mad about Oarfish and his case on me
>I'm scum
>Nobody does anything about Oarfish

>Throw Oarfish gripes out the window
>I'm scum
>Nobody does anything about Oarfish

Holy fuck people make up your minds

[Refa]

I wasn't scumreading you for getting mad about Oarfish anyways (you could either be town mad that someone is making an awful case on you, or scum mad that someone caught you for all of the wrong reasons), so this is erroneous.

[NekoNekoRex]

Has anyone even read my gripes on Oarfish or you just skimming it because it's angryposting?

[NekoNekoRex]

He voted me on the basis I made a post about Dormio on D2 (and Dormio is dead) and then proceeded to not make any other comment about me for the next two posts, THEN said he's going to sit on it because Bard liked it and that he's going to find my buddies.

My case on BT as an individual is flimsy at best, and yes my vote for NNR was more a pressure vote for scummy behavior than a gut reading -- I started this game with a strong townread on him.  However, Bard at least believes my pressure vote on NNR found some results, so ...

Not sure what to think about this.  Who are NNR's buddies?  Are there indications to which players he's working with?  I'll post later with thoughts.

[NekoNekoRex]

His disagreement about my SB case isn't because he thinks SB is town, it's because he's relying that it's audacity he would make those posts

[NekoNekoRex]

*make those posts as scum

[NekoNekoRex]

If there was a scum player who ONLY sheeped cases and joined wagons, that would ...
Actually I was about to say that person would be less dangerous than a different type of scum, but it doesn't sound as good written down than in my head. Still haven't examined NNR interactions; Saturday is busy for me. I'll try to do that when I get up tomorrow, if nobody else does it first.

"Scum can't be obvious because that would be too obvious" -Oarfish

[SB]

Dr Rawr (5) - SB, Serela, NNR, Bardiche, Zakeri
NekoRex (3) - O4rfish, Shadoweh, Dr Rawr
Elieson (2) - Refa, Skypal
O4rfish (1) - BT
Skypal (1) - Elieson

You have ~2 hours remaining in the day. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

NNR, I already said that I was townreading Zak without agreeing with his points. Try again.

I feel like if one of NNR/Elieson is scum the other probably is too based on how they've interacted today. Rawr is probably the better lynch between them still especially when valid reasons for voting NNR aren't really in his posts.

[NekoNekoRex]

Oarfish has failed to even put scum intent down on my vote, he just thinks that I'm wrong.

NNR, I already said that I was townreading Zak without agreeing with his points. Try again.

We're not even on the subject of you right now. I'm getting mad about Oarfish all over again because he's argh and impossible and everyone is ignoring him but me.