Touhou Popularity Contest: Forum Guessing Game! Do You Feel Lucky?

[Kilgamayan]

With the 10th popularity poll having begun, I thought we could have a little fun predicting some the results. Basically, there'll be a bunch of things all users can guess on related to how the final results of the character part of the poll shake down, with various point totals allotted to each. Once the results are in, I'll go through every entry and calculate the user's score based on their predictions. The three users with the highest scores will win Yellow Member titles! You'll also get Nostradamus-level bragging rights, though we don't have that forum title anymore.

The deadline for entries is 24:00PM JST (Midnight) Saturday (March 1) going into Sunday (March 2), the same time the poll itself ends. One entry per user. You may edit your post to change your predictions, but all edits after the deadline will be ignored.

Good luck!

1. Give a list of any 10 characters ranked from 2 to 11.

* Gain 2 points for every character you list that actually finishes ranked between 2 and 11 inclusive.
* Gain an additional 3 points for every character you list whose actual rank matches your predicted rank.
* Gain an additional 20 points if one of the characters whose actual rank you predict correctly is Reimu.

2. Pick any character and any rank numbered 25 or greater (26, 27, etc). Gain 20 points if your prediction matches that character's actual rank.

3. Pick any number. Gain points equal to 8 minus the difference between your number and Hata no Kokoro's rank (minimum points 0).

4. Pick any DDC character. Gain 5 points if they finish ranked tied with or higher than every other DDC character. (Cirno is excluded.)

5. Consider the Buddhist group (defined to be Nazrin, Ichirin Kumoi, Unzan, Minamitsu Murasa, Shou Toramaru, Byakuren Hijiri, Nue Houjuu, Kyouko Kasodani, and Mamizou Futatsuiwa) and the Taoist group (defined to be Yoshika Miyako, Seiga Kako, Soga no Tojiko, Mononobe no Futo, and Toyosatomimi no Miko).

* Gain 3 points if you pick a group and the arithmatic mean of that group's ranks is lower than that of the other group.
* Gain 10 points if you pick that both groups will have the same arithmatic mean rank and it actually happens.

6. Consider the older sister group (defined as Gensetsu, Remilia Scarlet, Lunasa Prismriver, Shizuha Aki, Satori Komeiji, and Benben Tsukumo) and the younger sister group (defined as Mugetsu, Flandre Scarlet, Lyrica Prismriver, Minoriko Aki, Koishi Komeiji, and Yatsuhashi Tsukumo).

* Gain 3 points if you pick a group and the sum of that group's ranks is lower than that of the other group.
* Gain 10 points if you pick that both groups will have the same rank sum and it actually happens.

7. Pick either any character or "no one".

* Gain 5 points if you pick a character and they finish ranked between the Aki sisters.
* Gain 10 points if you pick "no one" and the Aki sisters finish ranked tied or consecutively.

8. List Sunny Milk, Luna Child, and Star Sapphire in any order. Gain 5 points if your list matches how they finish, ranked best to worst.

[Sect]

1. #2 Reimu Hakurei  #3 Sakuya Izayoi  #4 Alice Margatroid  #5 Marisa Kirisame  #6 Sanae Kochiya  #7 Flandre Scarlet #8 Yuuka Kazami #9 Remilia Scarlet #10 Satori Komeiji  #11 Mononobe no Futo

2. #27 Iku Nagae

3. 32

4. Kagerou Imaizumi

5. Buddhists

6. Same Sum

7. No one

8. Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[日巫子]

1) #2 Alice Margatroid #3 Komeiji Koishi #4 Remilia Scarlet #5 Kirisame Marisa #6 Kochiya Sanae #7  Flandre Scarlet #8 Kazami Yuuka #9 Izayoi Sakuya #10 Komeiji Satori #11 Konpaku Youmu

2) #32 Mizuhashi Parsee

3) 42

4) Sukuna Shinmyoumaru

5) Buddhist

6) Younger sister

7) Koakuma

8 ) Luna Child, Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk

[hungrybookworm]

1) #2 - Sakuya Izayoi, #3 - Cirno, #4 - Alice Margatroid, #5 - Remilia Scarlet, #6 - Marisa Kirisame, #7 - Sanae Kochiya, #8 - Flandre Scarlet, #9 - Aya Shameimaru, #10 - Youmu Konpaku, #11 - Satori Komeiji

2) #102 - Mugetsu

3) 19

4) Raiko Horikawa

5) Buddhist

6) Older sister

7) Hatate Himekaidou

8) Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[ditt93]

1) #2 Sakuya Izayoi #3 Marisa Kirisame #4 Remilia Scarlet #5 Alice Margatroid #6 Flandre Scarlet #7 Yuuka Kazami #8 Mononobe no Futo #9 Koishi Komeiji #10 Yuyuko Saigyoji #11 Satori Komeiji

2) #30 Shinmyoumaru Sukuna

3) 25

4) Shinmyoumaru Sukuna

5) Taoist

6) Older sister

7) Eirin Yagokoro

8) Luna Child, Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk

[Quwanti]

1) #2 Sakuya Izayoi #3 Koishi Komeiji #4 Marisa Kirisame #5 Alice Margatroid #6 Remilia Scarlet #7 Flandre Scarlet #8 Satori Komeiji #9 Sanae Kochiya #10 Aya Shameimaru #11 Hata no Kokoro

2) #30 Toyosatomimi no Miko

3) 31

4) Kagerou Imaizumi

5) Bhuddist

6) Older sister

7) No one

Luna Child, Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk

[CyberAngel]

1. #2 Sakuya Izayoi  #3 Koishi Komeiji  #4 Marisa Kirisame  #5 Remilia Scarlet  #6 Flandre Scarlet  #7 Alice Margatroid  #8 Yuuka Kazami  #9 Sanae Kochiya  #10 Toyosatomimi no Miko  #11 Byakuren Hijiri

2. #33 Kaguya Houraisan

3. 12

4. Seija Kijin

5. Taoist

6. Older sister

7. No one

8. Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[SirSlarty]

1. #2 Sakuya Izayoi, #3 Marisa Kirisame, #4 Alice Margatroid, #5 Remilia Scarlet, #6 Koishi Komeiji, #7 Yuuka Kazami, #8 Satori Komeiji, #9 Flandre Scarlet, #10 Youmu Konpaku, #11 Aya Shameimaru

2. #33 Hina Kagiyama

3. 20

4. Sukuna Shinmyoumaru

5. Taoist

6. Older sister

7. no one

8. Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[Espadas]

* Gain an additional 20 points if one of the characters whose actual rank you predict correctly is Reimu.

I admit it, i lol'ed quite hard at this :]

Anyway here are my choices:

1. #2 Alice Margatroid #3 Sakuya Izayoi #4 Marisa Kirisame #5 Remilia Scarlet #6 Flandre Scarlet #7 Yuuka Kazami #8 Sanae Kochiya #9 Youmu Konpaku #10 Aya Shameimaru #11 Satori Komeiji

2. #39 Kogasa Tatara

3. #17

4. Sukuna Shinmyoumaru

5. Taoist

6. Older sister

7. no one

8. Luna Child - Sunny Milk - Star Sapphire

[Berzul]

What if someone uses data mining programs? What if someone already did that? Is that really fair?

[ditt93]

What if someone uses data mining programs? What if someone already did that? Is that really fair?

Don't know about everyone else, but I'm just participating because it seems fun and to see how many I guessed correctly.

[hungrybookworm]

...Why would anyone use a data mining program? There's only ten past polls to look through, and anything beyond the last three isn't going to be much help.

[Espadas]

Don't know about everyone else, but I'm just participating because it seems fun and to see how many I guessed correctly.

Same here, and it's not like winning give you money, eternal fame or a trophy.... just a bit of fun an competition between us to see who can read the minds of the Touhou fandom better (when i put it like this i'm almost hoping to LOSE..... scary fandom is scary....  :V)

[Bio]

If anyone gets more than 30 points they are promoted to forum seer.

[cuc]

>datamining

In fact, there are Japanese fans who're constantly updating their tally based on how people said they voted from twitter and such. I supppse no one will cheat in this thread, though.

[Ibaraki Ibuki]

• #2 Sakuya Izayoi #3 Alice Margatroid #4 Marisa Kirisame #5 Remilia Scarlet #6 Flandre Scarlet #7 Koishi Komeiji #8 Satori Komeiji #9 Yuuka Kazami #10 Sanae Kochiya #11 Nitori Kawashiro
• 29, Mamizou Futatsuiwa
• 23
• Kagerou Imaizumi
• Taoist
• Older Sister
• No one
• Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[fsvgm777]

1. #2 Sakuya Izayoi, #3 Marisa Kirisame, #4 Flandre Scarlet, #5 Sanae Kochiya, #6 Alice Margatroid, #7 Youmu Konpaku, #8 Remilia Scarlet, #9 Aya Shameimaru, #10 Koishi Komeiji, #11 Yuuka Kazami

2. #40 Eiki Shiki, Yamaxanadu

3. 30

4. Seija Kijin

5. Taoist

6. Younger sister group

7. No one

8. Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk, Luna Child

[Zil]

1. #2 Reimu  #3 Sakuya  #4 Remilia  #5 Marisa  #6 Alice  #7 Yuuka  #8 Satori  #9 Flandre  #10 Aya  #11 Sanae

2. #33 Kaguya

3. 20

4. Seija

5. Taoists

6. older

7. no one

8. Luna, Sunny, Star

[Colticide]

I'm having a bit of trouble understanding the rules so I hope I did it right.

1. Taking the risk!!! #2 Reimu Hakurei #3 Marisa Kirisame #4 Sakuya Izayoi #5 Alice Margatroid #6 Remilia Scarlet #7 Flandre Scarlet #8 Youmu Konpaku #9 Yuuka Kazami #10 Aya Shameimaru #11 Mononobe no Futo

2. #29 Hina Kagiyama

3. 26

4. Kagerou Imaizumi

5. Both Groups

6. Both Groups

7. No one

8. Sunny Milk, Luna Child, and Star Sapphire

[Sahgren]

1. #2 Marisa Kirisame #3 Sakuya Izayoi #4 Alice Margatroid #5 Remilia Scarlet #6 Flandre Scarlet #7 Yuuka Kazami #8 Youmu Konpaku #9 Aya Shameimaru #10 Fujiwara no Mokou #11 Sanae Kochiya

2. #42 Kaguya Houraisan

3. 24

4. Shinmyoumaru Sukuna

5. Buddhist

6. Older

7. No one

8. Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[T3hCoM]

1. #2 Koishi Komeiji, #3 Marisa Kirisame, #4 Sakuya Izayoi, #5 Alice Margatroid, #6 Remilia Scarlet, #7 Aya Shameimaru, #8 Flandre Scarlet, #9 Yuuka Kazami, #10 Youmu Konpaku, #11 Sanae Kochiya

2. #70 Lunasa Prismriver

3. 23

4. Kagerou Imaizumi

5. Taoists

6. Older

7. Koakuma

8. Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[Quukii]

1. #2 Reimu Hakurei, #3 Sakuya Izayoi, #4 Marisa Kirisame, #5 Remilia Scarlet, #6 Alice Margatroid, #7 Flandre Scarlet, #8 Youmu Konpaku, #9 Koishi Komeiji, #10 Aya Shameimaru, #11 Sanae Kochiya

2. #58 Koakuma

3. 25

4. Seija Kijin

5. Taoists

6. Older

7. No one

8. Luna Child, Sunny Milk, Star Sapphire

[Fuyuumi]

1. #2 Cirno, #3 Marisa Kirisame, #4 Alice Margatroid, #5 Youmu Konpaku, #6 Satori Komeiji, #7 Reimu Hakurei, #8 Suwako Moriya, #9 Flandre Scarlet, #10 Remilia Scarlet, #11 Aya Shameimaru
2. #42 Rinnosuke Morichika
3. 23
4. Seija Kijin
5. Buddhist
6. Younger sister
7. Reisen Udongein Inaba
8. Luna Child, Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk

[monhan]

Took me a while to decide on this. Come on, Yukari! You can do it!

1. #2 Marisa Kirisame #3 Sakuya Izayoi #4 Alice Margatroid #5 Remilia Scarlet #6 Sanae Kochiya  #7 Flandre Scarlet #8 Youmu Konpaku #9 Aya Shameimaru #10 Satori Komeiji #11 Yukari Yakumo

2. #30 Parsee Mizuhashi

3. 20

4. Kijin Seija

5. Buddhist

6. Older

7. No one

8. Luna Child, Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk

[Arcorann]

Answer sheet? I'll skip 1 (too complex to check), but no-one got 2 (the closest was T3hCoM).

3. Rank was 15, so points awarded if value was between 7 and 22 inclusive. Closest was Espadas with 17 (6 points).

4. 5 points awarded if answer was Shinmyoumaru Sukuna (rank 34), 0 otherwise. This one was relatively easy.

5. 3 points awarded if answer was Taoist group (53.8 vs. 55 5/9), 0 otherwise.

6. 3 points awarded if answer was older sister group (330 vs 355), 0 otherwise. Most got this one as well.

7. 5 points awarded if answer was Rinnosuke Morichika only, 0 otherwise. No-one got this.

8. 5 points awarded if answer was Luna Child, Star Sapphire, Sunny Milk, 0 otherwise.

[Kilgamayan]

Sorry for the delay, folks. I didn't expect the results to come so soon. I'll try to take care of this tonight.

[Colticide]

Lol Rinnosuke had to go and get a Aki sandwhich.

[Mr Jovial]

So since Kilga said they would do it "tonight" (and its already been 30 hours) I went and did the results myself because I was bored (what a fun existence I lead :V)

Attaching them as images because I did them in excel. I will admit, I can be unreliable at basic arithmetic so I may have made mistakes (please at least check your own and tell me if have made mistakes). In short, Espadas was 1st, Quukii was 2nd and monhan was 3rd. Results for Q1 ranged from 14 to 30. Quukii got 30 there and 2nd place for Q1 was tied between Zil and Sahgren with 25.

Full results:

Table:


Graph (Excel decided it wanted to order people the opposite way I'm too incompetent to figure out how to change the order back):


P.S: I'd rather have put those images in as attachments rather than Tinypic links but I can't seem to add an attachment here. Sorry if this means you're unable to see the pictures :<

EDIT: Noticed I'd marked Reimu in Q1 as correct for Genesect and Colticide. Deducted 2 marks from both and updated images.

[Espadas]

I actually got first? 
Oh well..... yay!  :]

P.S. My score is correct, Mr Jovial

[Fuyuumi]

Second to last while totally derping around and having no idea what I'm typing.