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He didn't actually lie, but he's treading on the invisible fishing wire of deceit and uncertainty, and he knows it. I don't think Kyouko doing that was a part of his "plan" at all, just that the consequences were favorable. He didn't actually trick Kyouko, since she was hellbent on saving Sayaka anyways, and was looking for that genre-stereotypical "If we try hard enough we can save her!" device. Kyubey told her that it hasn't ever happened before to his knowledge, so the chances are extremely low at most. Kyouko went ahead anyways. Later when talking to Homura, Kyubey just repeated that he didn't think it would have been possible. He never changed his stance. However, the sheer amount of not-quite-deceit Kyubey tosses out on a regular basis is pretty coincidental to not be done on purpose. Not sharing information for weird reasons, talking to only certain people about certain things, and speaking over-factually enough that people twist the meaning slightly or misunderstand; it's easy to see that he's walking that line. But I don't think he's outright lying, at least not just with what we have presented so far.
Regardless though, considering the show's circumstances there is no way I'd be able to confidently conclude anything at all. That's why there's so much speculation in the first place, because all throughout the series there hasn't been a single thing wholly explained, and the writers are making a killing for it. Next thing we know episode 10 completely screws up everyone's expectations.
Until further proven I cannot believe anything Kyubey says. Even if the whole heat death avoidance is something that could become of pubescenergy, it's still possibly be a cover for something actually sinister. Homura being so intent on forbidding Madoka from contracting goes far beyond simply "lol energy". I'm not saying to dismiss Kyubey's explanation at all though, since it likely has relevance to the plot somehow. Otherwise it'd be a pretty empty mention.
How about this. Since the beginning of the series, Kyubey has shown to everyone that he reeeeeeeally wants Madoka to contract (up to this point, presumably because the energy produced from her witchification would amke the universe cum buckets). However, he isn't doing anything special aside from passively egging her on. When Homura confronts Kyubey, she says she knows what he's up to. As if he has a hidden agenda. What people seem to have ignored after episode 9 is that there would have no need to reveal that he has a hidden plan. Getting Madoka to contract and become a witch? That much would be obvious, and not worth any special mention. Homura isn't from this timeline. She already knows everything about what would happen when Walpurgisnacht arrives. There is yet even more to what Kyubey is trying to do, and half the people watching the show are being sucked into his explanation because it was all sciencey and shit. Fuck that. Witchification releases energy? Then why would there be a need to incubate grief seeds that have absorbed enough magic to fill to the brim? Why would there even be a need for witches after the transformation? What's more, the wishes the human makes is definitely a triggering factor in Kyubey being able to bring out their souls; Kyubey already says they have no overbearing moral code, and like he told Madoka, why would it matter if a few humans died every so often? If that were all true Kyubey would just be yanking out souls here and there. There must be some sort of consent needed.
i'm kind of annoyed at the one-dimensional stance most of you are taking, it's like "oh boy they sure fooled us! can't wait for next episode lolololol!
you're being spoon-fed the series instead of critically thinking about a series whose appeal depends mainly on critical thought (and reversal of magical girl stereotypes and audience expectations and good music and trippy art)
