Author Topic: Himelander Mafia Thread (Over! Scum Win!)  (Read 58500 times)

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #720 on: February 25, 2010, 04:23:58 AM »
I'm not willing to die to you. I just recognize I'm unlikely to live. If I wanted to die, I'd have voted you. If Rou had been my challenger, I'd have voted Rou. I don't see where you concluded I wanted to die to you as opposed to am resigned to the fact I'm liable to die to you.


Jam-Kiske

  • i am not witty
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #721 on: February 25, 2010, 04:32:33 AM »
Do we have over a day before deadline?
Because this is horridly tedious and I'm not even done rereading one of you 2...
Yeah I don't feel like doing math or anything involving my brain right now... sorry. :<

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #722 on: February 25, 2010, 04:36:24 AM »
If it's me you haven't finished, I assure you Kiro has a lot fewer posts. Given the challenge time, we should have ~27 hours left.



Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #723 on: February 25, 2010, 04:38:22 AM »
You have around 26-ish hours remaining or something.

Vote Count
UncertainKitten (3): Roukanken, Hakurouken, UncertainKitten
Kiro (2): Alex, Kiro

5 to secure a win.

Jam-Kiske

  • i am not witty
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #724 on: February 25, 2010, 04:39:35 AM »
You post too much UK. :<
But cool. I'm going to sleep without feeling bad then.

However, tomorrow I'm crazy busy and won't be able to get on till like 6pm [central time]
~Please don't hammer guys.~

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #725 on: February 25, 2010, 01:55:54 PM »
Got to Singapore, but no steady access to Internet and this place closes in 5 minutes. Pain in the ass.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #726 on: February 25, 2010, 04:02:02 PM »
Quote from: Alex
and it's already won her Rou's doublevote, both of them clearing each other on nothing but gut
Gut <> Meta. UK being irritable and argumentative is at the very least a null tell for her. It may well even be a Town tell because she gets more irritated when she knows she has something to prove. As much as she can annoy, she still comes across to me as Town who is too emotionally involved in the game. Not that this excuses her horrible scum-hunting record, but it's enough to nudge her ahead of Kiro.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #727 on: February 25, 2010, 06:02:32 PM »
I hope you all aren't planning to sudden death me. That would be quite scummy. Kefit, Jam, K4, and Alice all need to commit to votes.

NOW.


Jam-Kiske

  • i am not witty
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #728 on: February 25, 2010, 06:27:04 PM »
Didn't I say I was busy for like 6 more hours?
Geez woman.

Anyway, the public transport here screwed me over again so I ended up home instead of observing like I'm supposed to be.
However, I've used the time to do ... well homework. Because that's important.
Just checking in to make sure you didn't hammer. Thank god...

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #729 on: February 25, 2010, 06:39:24 PM »
I don't want bullshit to occur is all. If I'm going to die fair and square, so be it. But if I die due to abuse of the system (and flip town, which I will), then I want the abuser challenged and killed IMMEDIATELY.

Likewise for Kiro. If Kiro is sudden death killed and flips town, I want the abuser to die.


?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #730 on: February 25, 2010, 07:17:26 PM »
I had a post I was typing up over the past day in-between assignments and other stuff and then firefox eated it, which is perhaps just as well as it was something like 5 pages long and I wasn't even done, so yeah. I'll just summarize:
D1-D3:
Kiro is pretty much fine. The complaint of him being all setup no Scumhunting is invalid, and he brings up some interesting points (i.e. Scum would have to discredit anyone that's not them that Town is trying to choose a champion to blow through everyone else), even if they are for plans which are Bad, though in the end he realises these plans are Bad so yeah.

UK on the other hand is very argumentative and at times lazy, but similarly there is nothing actually Scummy about her during this time. The only thing notable is her comment to Bard that if Pesco won't challenge Bard <24 hours into D1, she will, but considering UK vig'd Kilga in TJM as soon as the blocks on the guns were enabled 24 hours into D1, this is sadly a null tell instead of a Scumtell for her. Sigh.

Kefit's Serp case: this is interesting. First point is, as far as I can tell, actually valid, and the others seem to be mentioning Serp's paranoia at Kefit despite Kefit explicitly stating to not have him get into another duel ever again in this game. Now, the case itsself is not explicitly bad, prior to Serp's #543 a lot of his posts were cryptic and weird and were of the same strange paranoidal nature. In fact this isn't the first time Serp did something like this on a Townie that could potentially be a Scum playing well - he did the exact same thing in RKS Mafia with me.

What I'm wondering is, is the same thing occuring with UK: is she merely being paranoid, or is she flailing around trying to off anyone she can instead of dying? The latter doesn't fit: why attack Kefit when you have easy targets like Jam? Why spend so much time on a case on Alex that really is not valid and defend yourself from attack from a lot of Town when other options exist? The obvious answer is that it isn't LYLO yet and she's trying to off a very annoying (in the context of preventing Scum from achieving their win conditions) Townie to make the game much easier. At the same time, though...hmm...

Anyway, I find it amusing that people thought UK vs. Serp was an easier matchup than UK vs. Chaore. UK vs. Serp I actually probably would have voted for Serp at the time (I had course projects and assignments to do. Apologies, everyone >_>), whereas with UK vs. Chaore it probably would have been an easy win for UK. I was pretty sure Chaore was Town but public opinion seemed to peg him as Scum, and the fact that UK is at least doing *something* other than being suicidal would have probably had me voting for UK as well (just as I had voted for Roukan on D5). Anyway.

D4: UK first this time, as she was one of the principal challengers: two interesting things pop up:
First, her challenging Serp over Chaore to "please Town" - I have no issue with the challenge, but why the reasoning? If you actually are Town then you should not have to do certain actions for the sole purpose of making you look suspicious to the rest of Town, yet you yourself admit this is why you challenged Serp instead of Chaore that day.
The other thing is in #583: first, it's interesting that you thought that Alex Scum at that time was actually not a possiblity, but I'm surprised you find Kefit's actions towards Ciato anything telling: there was a good amount of certainty that Ciato was Scum, and thus really anyone else could have taken Kefit's place, Kefit just happened to be around and be someone who was also likely to be Townie as well, thus making it good for Town to have had him win the challenge.
Oh, lastly it's also interesting that she spends so much time trying to get Chaore to commit and forms a case on him and overall it seems as if she genuinely thinks he is Scum rather than her trying to setup a Townie Mislynch(TM). Then again, this is something that Scum would do as well, so ultimately Null Tell, but still interesting. It does to be to her favour in the end though, imho.

Kiro on the other hand...is starting to look bad. Four posts. His points on Bard are perfectly valid and share mine, his point to K4U makes sense as well, and what he said to UK is the exact same thing I've brought up multiple times now re: Alex's play not being an attempt at bussing Two Scumbuddies starting on Day freaking One, but the thing that bothers me is that there isn't anything more. Vacation and travelling can account for some things, but really, what do you think of Kefit at the time? Alex himself? UK? Myself? That's all missing, even though I know in a normal game Kiro would be going down all these avenues of thought. Time limitations do drive one to compactify things, so this is why I'm not pegging him as Scum for this alone, but it still worries me. A lot.

D5: Decision phase is going to drive things here. First, Kiro:
Suspicion going to UK after both Serp and Bard flipped Town is a very reasonable thing to do given the circumstances. However, a lot of his case on her being Scum depends on Chaore being Scum, which he turned out to...not be. Notable in that he wants Alex to get the shiny prize, and thinks that UK is the principal "loose end" in the game at this time. Not sure I agree with the latter. The former is fine, however. Not sure why he decided to slap down the L-1 vote at that time and specifically mention that it was the L-1 vote, but I can't tell if this is a tell towards anything other than Chaore being a colossal moron.

UK...interesting that still she thinks that Alex is Pro-Town enough to challenge Chaore and get the shiny bauble from the challenge. Again, seems to have a very "solid" case on Chaore at first glance. On the other hand... a lot of it doesn't make any sense: the D2/D3 votes were pretty much cemented as of Tom's post at the very beginning of D2, ffs. There really was no other way for anyone to vote without looking like a giant derpsicle (and after Tom/Ciato flipped, extremely Scummy as well). In fact, voting-patterns-wise D1-D3 are next to worthless for catching Scum. Despite this, it doesn't feel like crap pushed through. At least, Scum would not have to put together such an elaborate case to get Chaore to die considering Town sentiment was very much against him. Slight negative point against her, but very minor.
The principal weird point, is suggesting Roukanken to Chaore when Chaore asked who should challenge him and off him. This bothers me quite a bit, for reasons I've already mentioned about Roukan not being 100% clear and it feeding Roukan the shiny bauble and a head if Roukan is Scum. Very bad.

D6: Yuck.

Kiro posts a garbage post incriminating basically everyone, UK posts stuff straight out of the Twilight Mafia Zone after doing a complete \pi-turn on Alex. Both of their cases are godawful, for reasons I've already outlined.

This post is getting long enough, so I will address questions and anything from the rest of D6 in my next post, and conclusions in a separate one from that. lol tripleposting.
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #731 on: February 25, 2010, 07:38:28 PM »
Firstly, UK, cut the incivility. You're pissing off everyone else with it, and it's not going to do anything to me, because it's impossible to make me mad over anything really. So yeah :V

Anyway.

Quote from: UK
Well could you honestly extremely goddamn explain WHY it's so implausable given how many people are calling for Alex to take heads in recent days?
Have gone over this multiple times. Before he knew about the D2 special challenge conditions, Alex would have lost 1 Scum for TowniePoints(TM) on Ciato and done nothing for himself. At worst, given that Ciato was not exactly playing well either, he would have been out Two Scum as of D3 with nothing to show for it. After the D2 challenge condition set in, it appears that if he is Scum, he got 1 (One) head out of it for 2 (Two) Scum dead, and the principal reason why everyone thinks he is Town is because he is playing like Town, whereas his D1/D2 actions are only serving to cast suspicion on him. Remember that this is not a normal mafia setup: the ideal course for Scum here is not the same as it is in a standard mafia setup. Scum bussing Scum is even worse here than it is otherwise, less opportunities to acquire heads, less numbers for the eventual LYLO cleanup, etc. Basically when you combine everything it leads to the fact that while Alex could have done this as a gambit, the reasons for me thinking it's implausible is that its reward is not all that great: Kefit didn't do any gambiteering and has been poked for heads almost as often, same for Kiro prior to D4 and even El Cid while he was alive! On the other hand, the loss is great: 2 Scum for 1 Townie head, or if not for the D2 challenge, 1 Scum for Possible TowniePoints(TM) on another fellow Scum. Really, not worth the trade.

Quote from: UK
Alex or Kefit? Very important.
Kefit.

Quote from: UK
I'm sorry if this explanation blows as well, but at least I think Rou is TOWN, not just an amazingly coherent easy to read poster and thusly town from that.
Alex: Kefit is Town because he is an amazingly coherent easy to read poster.
UK: Roukan is Town because gut.
Both are equally bad. This is exactly why I am slamming you over this. Because "gut" is not enough reasoning: gut is good for catching someone of interest, but after that when you formulate a case you go back through their posts and look for evidence: what did you catch on gut anyway? Chances are it's something that can actually be used as evidence if identified in his posting structure/style/statements/motivations/etc.

Quote
Now I want to swap you in with Kiro. You know one of us is town. Yet you propose town vs. scum in what is probably THE most cloudy challenge yet. How does this advantage town at all?
Because I want to force out some opinions out of everyone. It is late enough in the game that this is very important/useful, not not so late that is a very dangerous move. Also, I don't know which of you is Town, just that it doesn't make any sense for you two to be on a Scumteam together from you constantly bussing Kiro.

Quote from: UK
On the one hand, you are right unilaterals this late don't provide much information. On the other, you ARE risking a scum gaining a head if you ARE town, and I'm not sure it's justified with Kiro. Then again, I know I'm town and I'm decently certain on who's scum.
You know you're Town and Kiro is your second pick as Scum after Alex, not to mention you've been after him for quite some time now. So convince us that you're Town and Kiro's Scum, then this becomes strictly GOOD for you because now you're offing Scum! Unless of course you are Scum in which case this no longer applies.

Quote from: UK
Look, everyone who's not stuck their head in the ground. Let me put it this way. Kefit, Alex, Kiro, and Alice are ALL players you catch on minor tells. They don't make major scum mistakes. If my cases seem weak that's because it's THAT HARD to catch them. Yes, this is a burden of proficiency and I don't expect you to just take my word for it. But please, reread them!, draw conclusions, and please look for minor things as opposed to major acting out. More importantly look for things that don't sound like they come from townies as opposed to things a bad player would say.
I am extremely baffled at this statement. Why? Because it's right. Myself and Alex are both very good Scum players, Kiro's quite experienced as well and I have no clue about Kefit but he seems like someone that'd do a good job. And yes, people like these you catch on minor tells. My issue with your Alex case?

It's not based on minor tells, it's based on a conspiracy theory. Take out D2 and D3 and the vast majority of your case on him completely falls apart, yet almost everything that happened on D2 and D3 was completely irrelevant.

Quote from: Kiro
Re Alice's #686: You lurk, that's how it goes with your playstle and I've felt you've been largely absent for everything except the Day 4 proceedings. In rereading #488, UK says she'll challenge Chaos and in #491, you ask why not Serp. Looks like a bit of a nudge to go a certain way. Even if you said you needed more of a read on Serp in #481, it feels like a bit of an interject there as UK doesn't really suggest going for Chaos since she feels she'd lose. And you also angle for Chaos to possibly go for Serp over UK in #498 and #500. All of it even when you said in #481 that Serp would probably be "a better target than Chaos but a worse one than UK" and you bumping Serp up to the top without even providing analysis of any reread you did. Where did this shift come from? Because there's nothing in between #481 and UK's challenge. It gives me the impression of giving UK a match she could win or at least avoid losing given the way people were leaning.
Funny, D4 was the day I was principally absent for. In case you noticed, I didn't even slap down a vote for UK vs. Serp due to it ending before I had time for this game >_>. I've already explained why I went for Serp over Chaore, not to mention that your reasoning seems bass-ackwards at time: it would have been even easier for UK to win against Chaore at that time than Serp, not to mention why are you not blaming everyone else who voted for Serp? What is your opinion of Kefit himself, outside of his D4 Serp case, btw?

Alex's latest posts are a lot of "what." and misreading numbers/Scumcounts/detection rates. Honestly not sure what to make of this anymore.

@Roukan: UK gets quite emotionally involved in the game as Scum as well. This part of Meta really isn't great as it doesn't change across faction. More reasoning less meta please.

@Jam: Please post something coherent in 6 hours. Seriously. Christ.
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #732 on: February 25, 2010, 07:44:50 PM »
Conclusions: both UK and Kiro actually look a lot less terrible in the end after you filter out meta which is symmetric across faction, but there's still enough on both to make them the worst targets for today beyond Jam. UK has desperation and a case completely out of left field, but Kiro worries me quite a bit as well, between the whole "posting the bare minimum analysis required" and today's statements reading a bit like trying to fling crap at everything and get it to stick. That being said, UK for having a very antagonistic playstyle is extremely Anti-Town, and it netted Scum 0.99 heads from the Bard quit alone, not to mention managed to sap Town's overall enthusiasm for the game, both very good things for Scum. Combine this with her getting a head and the whole Roukan thing, and yeah.

So in the end, I am not sure. Leaning for a vote for UK still, but the latter angle is something I have not considered until now and Kiro actually doesn't look all that bad, it's rather the lack of content than the content that worries me about him, so I am going to have to think about it a bit more and I am actually 15 minutes late for a class right now so yeah. Class ends at 4:30PM EST so I should be back online with a vote then (i.e. in about 2 hours).
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #733 on: February 25, 2010, 07:56:53 PM »
Quote
Firstly, UK, cut the incivility. You're pissing off everyone else with it, and it's not going to do anything to me, because it's impossible to make me mad over anything really. So yeah

Is there any reason to point this out further after Edible called me out? I've cut it down. There's no need to belabor it.

Quote
Kefit.

Ok. As I said, that bugs me a lot. I really don't know what to make of it...
Quote
Because "gut" is not enough reasoning: gut is good for catching someone of interest, but after that when you formulate a case you go back through their posts and look for evidence: what did you catch on gut anyway? Chances are it's something that can actually be used as evidence if identified in his posting structure/style/statements/motivations/etc.

And this is what irritates me most. I've LOOKED! Every time I reread the game, I just a get a "welp, that's town Rou" vibe. But I can't explain WHY. I think it's subconscious meta and I honestly don't feel like crossreferencing prior games. It's hypocritical to call Alex out on his clear for that but I'm not going to drop that point because it's hypocritical. I'll just accept that both of us look scummy for these kinds of clears. Fair?

Quote
Because I want to force out some opinions out of everyone. It is late enough in the game that this is very important/useful, not not so late that is a very dangerous move. Also, I don't know which of you is Town, just that it doesn't make any sense for you two to be on a Scumteam together from you constantly bussing Kiro.

I'll admit that I've seen the logic of this subsequent to my post. It's not necessarily making you TOWN, but it doesn't automatically implicate you with Kiro.

Quote
You know you're Town and Kiro is your second pick as Scum after Alex, not to mention you've been after him for quite some time now. So convince us that you're Town and Kiro's Scum, then this becomes strictly GOOD for you because now you're offing Scum! Unless of course you are Scum in which case this no longer applies.

Honestly, I have no idea what I was reaching for rereading what I said. I think I was trying to combine what it looks like from your POV with what it looked like from my POV and failed. As for proving I'm town, that's up to my history. Whether it be meta or just something you catch in my reread, I want to trust that I'll be concluded to be town. If I'm not, I probably need to be lynched to get rid of the risk. And I'm actually guessing that I haven't done a very good job demonstrating townie intent, hence why I'm expecting to die to Kiro. Then again, it might not be as hopeless as I thought since it seems that you all are critically thinking about my posts and putting them in perspective, and starting to draw the right conclusion.

Quote
I am extremely baffled at this statement. Why? Because it's right. Myself and Alex are both very good Scum players, Kiro's quite experienced as well and I have no clue about Kefit but he seems like someone that'd do a good job. And yes, people like these you catch on minor tells. My issue with your Alex case?

It's not based on minor tells, it's based on a conspiracy theory. Take out D2 and D3 and the vast majority of your case on him completely falls apart, yet almost everything that happened on D2 and D3 was completely irrelevant.

It's part conspiracy theory for Alex but...honestly, I keep reading his posts and do not see a lot in the way of scumhunting, and the repeated mentions of other players as town bothers me on a more visceral level, probably the same way my clearing of Rou bugs everyone else. But...perhaps I'm not articulating properly how I feel about Alex because I feel something smaller and am looking for something bigger. I'll try to take a second look at the posts I disliked and see if I can find out if there is a something smaller such as lack of true scumhunting or something like that. I want to say that my case on Kiro, specifically the point about how he's handled past challenges, is a good example of a minor tell that should differentiate scum Kiro from Town Kiro, and perhaps I can find something similar in Alex's case.

I'm kinda lost here at this point. I'm almost certain Alex is scum, but...I don't think I'm a good enough player to prove it, and that "masterful scum gambit" thing is a thorn in my side. A rather large one. I don't know if I can resolve this and get the desired result...but I'll give it one last stab today.

Ok, here's the deal. I'm almost certain that I want to ease off Alice because he's easing off me. I have that kind of bias. I'm trying to work against it but, logically, him actually considering how I'm acting and trying to understand at the very LEAST counts for minor town points. Scum don't have to consider really, just vote for Kiro. It's quite easy right now to dismiss me as a raving lunatic no matter how I flip. The fact that what appears to be genuine effort to understand how I've been posting and try to make the right place edges Alice back over Kefit for towniness to me. Jam's stalling also has me more worried about her more, but I'll be able to make a more solid conclusion one she posts reasoning on Kiro vs. myself as well as who else is scum.

Cuts:

Quote
but Kiro worries me quite a bit as well, between the whole "posting the bare minimum analysis required" and today's statements reading a bit like trying to fling crap at everything and get it to stick.

THANK YOU! Dear God you see this! I'm not completely batshit insane! I am about ready to jump for joy IRL. People actually see what I saw as a point in my case against Kiro. More importantly people I respect as very skilled players!

Thank you!

Now, the rest of this cut I dislike mostly for the fact that it leaves your options extremely open, but I will assume you commit to something with good reasoning in twoish hours so I'll wait before I get too worried about you trying to leave options open to get a good outcome as scum. Or something.


UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #734 on: February 25, 2010, 08:40:29 PM »
Ok, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to ISO Alex, and post my impressions of him in my usual terrible wall format. I'll once again post a second post that takes a stab at shrinking the case down to a few sentences. This will be my attempt to post a case on Alex that makes sense. If I fail...well...perhaps I need to reassess my scum picks.

Hmm...Alex's first game post is basically fine. Early game it's obvious players were focused on the two challengers. I was hoping we'd get past that but clearly the hope was in vain. So, we know his stance that scum wants to take risks. This could be very relevant for the "masterful scum gambit" discussion. Course, he does applaud Kefit's IIoA opening post. Numbers are impressive, but what about players?

this post from Alex is both good and bad. Good for the obvious he did push Tom vs. Ciato as early as D1 as Alice pointed out, though I still maintain that was a calculated risk. However, the bad is it feels like he's taking the easy way out and answering set up questions in a "pro-town" way. He's right but, anyone with a lick of theory could probably have said this as either alignment. The Pesco's history argument bugs me as well since as far as I can tell Alex hasn't played with Pesco in forever, and there's been some improvement, yet Alex refuses to even look for this to see if he can be fairer.

Next post is another "easy to say" one, but there wasn't really much MORE to say, so I won't hold it against him.

I'll note something here. Alex and Tom post almost one right after the other. Further, they had three hours to plan this. Perhaps it's coincidence, but it raises the probability of "masterful scum gambit" slightly, IMO.

this next post basically rehashes everything already discussed about the challenge as far as I can tell, and rolefishes Bard. Granted, rolefishing probably wasn't AS terrible in this set up...until you remember a certain cop who died to missiles being fired. I'm half curious if Alex won those. But that's basically speculation. I think that this point does bear bringing up though.

More of the same easy to say pro town things in this post. Further, there's a slight fish on Cid, but it's somewhat justified. Honestly, I think that the challenge system has caused one big problem for town. It's allowed otherwise good players to tunnel and post bare minimums and still look pro town. I'm not sure if I'm seeing lazy town lapsing into this or if I'm seeing crafty scum. I lean the latter though.








UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #735 on: February 25, 2010, 08:41:20 PM »
ARGH!, that wasn't supposed to be posted. Fine, you have my analysis of nine pages. Let me CONTINUE and hopefully not slip and hit the post button again.


Carthrat

  • HITLER OF LURKERS
  • MEIN MAIDENKAMPF
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #736 on: February 25, 2010, 08:42:59 PM »
You have around 10 hours remaining.

Vote Count
UncertainKitten (3): Roukanken, Hakurouken, UncertainKitten
Kiro (2): Alex, Kiro

5 to secure a win.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #737 on: February 25, 2010, 09:43:13 PM »
this is another null post that can ONLY bug me if Alex has missiles. Dammit, I hate posts like this. I can't outright say they are scummy but they feel that way to me since I think Alex is scum :(.

This is another 50/50 post. It's not scummy, but it's not really townie. Honestly, I think that's becoming a trend with Alex. He's posting the easy stuff and not analyzing past the current challenge except for that one time on D1.

this post is also lukewarm. The ONLY thing Alex can suggest is that Ciato goes. The part about the challenger not being him wasn't necessary and was worth slight town points, but again, it's easy to say when you expect Ciato's flip to clear you.

I never realized how maddening this was.

Ok, what happened to this? It was rather unqualified.

this reads as a harder Cid fish while basically just saying more about information rather than analyzing players. I'm REALLY noticing that trend. Rarely is something outside the current challenge mentioned by Alex, and when it is, it's usually the set up.

this is probably the scummiest post to date:

Intelligent vs. townie tell: Check
Easy "pro-town" sentiment: check
Framing a now flipped townie: check
Waffling: Surprisingly, check.

I don't think anyone can really debate those, but I'll entertain arguments.

While this post is consistent, it's continues the "readable is town yay!" theme.

Another scummy post by my criteria. Well, also, I'd like to ask. What changed on Cid, Alex? Also, I notice your opinion starts to turn against Kiro though you still don't want him to die. I think others were worrying about Kiro around the same point, but I could be wrong. Finally, there's that "readability=town, craziness = scum" attitude that I don't think holds, and is somewhat scummy to perpetuate. Well, townie to perpetuate in the meta but in this specific game basically hunting easy targets. Finally, a couple obvious theory stances.

this post I cannot make heads or tails of. He's coaching me. I don't like that. But I know my alignment, so he's coaching town. Why is he trying to raise the chance I won't be mislynched? Quite frankly, given the rest of his 50/50 mostly town theory very little town analysis posts, I'm inclined to say it was staged to perpetuate his gracious towniness, but I will admit this post bugs me and my read of Alex.

Ok, I think I get it now. this and the last post are Alex going for the mislynch. He's been reserved because he had to clean up the messes of prior days to look town, but now that he has enough cred he's using it. Granted, that's a very biased interpretation. It's a matter of "does he believe what he's saying". Given he coached me and seems to be semi non commital on me vs. Chaore...I'm leaning not actually.

this post causes me to ask "Why Serp?" You never mentioned him before. Further, it is intentionally throwing me to hang myself with two town options. Granted, I used that option, so I have to accept a hit if I consider this scummy. But I'm not afraid to do that. I am willing to admit that I've been in scummy circumstances as well as Alex. I think that I have less against me if you read my posts. So I'll take the hyporisy hit. Oh, I'll add there's a very nice waffle on Cid that leaves Alex open to sway with the opinion and say he's right either way if Cid flips.

More serp hate.

Where did this come from. I think I've found the most solid scum tell I'll find on Alex. He's bringing up Serp out of NOWHERE because the town is leaning that way...why?

this post has more wiggle room, plus just an "I agree with Kefit" to explain his newfound obsession with Serp...AFTER the challenge is issued.

this is more UK coaching, also defending stance on Rou. Honestly, nothing to read here except the UK coaching bugs me for the same reason as before.

this is another minor illustration of the "Hey guys, I'm here, I only have opinions on two people, where's the popcorn" attitude. Well, sorta. He does mention K4, but mostly to chastise us for quote stripes

This is the very first time we see all of Alex's opinions, and it's not very impressive. It only explains town reads, it relegates three people to lurker status without a comment on their alignment, and the two scummy he chooses are town. The big problem is that he leaves a lot of waffle room on everyone that's not Kefit. So, yeah.

Well, now that he's in big picture mode, notice that his focus shifts in this post. Part cid waffle with a lurker hunt. What happened to me and Cha being scum?

this post continues the trend of punishing bad players, not scum players.

this is another "could be pro town speculation, could be scummy framing" post, of which Alex excels at.

I really don't get the somewhat complete change of opinion in this post. After he's done being irritated that Rou can prove his power (bragging possibly?), he focuses on his lurkers still but doesn't even MENTION me, who was probably a logical death.

this post's main problem is the weird number manipulation. What was the point?

ALL DONE! Let me compress all this. I think I have a better case now.






UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #738 on: February 25, 2010, 10:13:03 PM »
I'm going to compress Alex's behavior into four criteria and cite relevant links

This is why Alex is scummy:
Intelligent vs. townie tell (Already explained. Easy to read posting does not necessarily mean town. Namely, it actually gives you a list of easy targets who don't post as well, while having an overall meta advantage for town, in this game would more aid scum.)

One
Two
Three
Four

Easy "pro-town" sentiment (This one is new. Basically, Alex, all game, has been taking easy theory stances that make him look pro town but honestly aren't difficult to claim as scum. So he gets cred without any actual analysis/opinion work.):

One
Two. (sorta, there was semi justified rolefish + rehashing prior discussion)
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Eight (Sort of. It's coaching me and could be an attempt to look pro town.)
Nine

Framing a now flipped townie (pretty self explanatory, mostly on Cid. He was very...open for any stance on Cid)
One

Waffling (This is also self explanatory. Note that Alex rarely has ever been committed to a real stance outside of Tom and Ciato.):
One
Two
Three
Four

Rolefishing (you might argue this isn't scummy in this set up, and it is less so than other set ups, but the missiles do raise it's scumminess):
]One
Two
Three

However, this is probably my most powerful tell: Swinging with the town on a case that he never really said anything about before but suddenly advocates.

One
Two
Three

(Note, he DOES explain it...after the challenge is issued.)

Miscellanious bears noticing. Let me just quote this:

Quote
Ok, what happened to this? It was rather unqualified.

Quote
Hmm...Alex's first game post is basically fine. Early game it's obvious players were focused on the two challengers. I was hoping we'd get past that but clearly the hope was in vain. So, we know his stance that scum wants to take risks. This could be very relevant for the "masterful scum gambit" discussion. Course, he does applaud Kefit's IIoA opening post. Numbers are impressive, but what about players?

Quote
I'll note something here. Alex and Tom post almost one right after the other. Further, they had three hours to plan this. Perhaps it's coincidence, but it raises the probability of "masterful scum gambit" slightly, IMO.

Note: If you have any questions about the posts I link fulfilling the criteria, please ask them.

Thank God I'm done with that. If I can't convince you with all that, there is no convincing you.


UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #739 on: February 25, 2010, 11:30:50 PM »
Alice, it's 6:30 PM EST. What happened to 4:30?


Kefit

  • The Wild Draw Four of America
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #740 on: February 25, 2010, 11:34:45 PM »
So I spent all of yesterday dying of AIDS rather than being overworked by a competition. Hooray. Thankfully I've mostly gotten over my AIDS now.

I'm somewhat bemused that the mod actually confirmed Rou's doublevote power. I really expected for its effects on voting to be invisible. I'm certainly not complaining though, more information for us is always a good thing. Plus this more or less completely removes the implication of the missile volley from Rou.

Let's see what I've picked up on my reread:

Rou and UK were at eachother's throats on day one but are bestest friends for life now. Not sure what to make of this.

UK insisted that Kiro take out Ciato on day three instead of me without offering any real reasoning on this matter. Did she want a fellow scum to look good by taking down a scum? But I really can't see scum vs scum happening at this point out of scum's own volition, as LyLo is so close as to outweigh the benefits of such gambits. I doubt anyone would have called serious foul had the duel today ended up being randomly determined. So I'll go ahead and just call this UK being crazy.

Near the end of day four, UK offered to kill Bardiche after taking out Serp. We would later learn the Bard was town. Of course, UK would probably be in jeopardy if she took two townie heads, but what would she care at that point if she was scum? She'd already have scored two heads for the scum team.

So what about Kiro? I can't really get much of a read. I don't have any issues with the reasoning in this post, and as I explained above I really don't think that both Kiro and UK are scum. Since I can't find anything outright scummy about Kiro, he gets my vote.

##Vote: Kiro

On another note, I am growing cautiously wary of Alex - I think that the reasoning in his most recent attack on UK is quite poor and stretching of the facts at issue. Not enough to make me throw everything out and go "omg guys Alex is scum," but I'll revisit him after we get a flip from this duel.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #741 on: February 25, 2010, 11:38:32 PM »
Wellp, I can't really argue "Well, the other person doesn't look as bad" logic. I don't think it's GOOD, but, whatever, at this point I'm just hoping town makes the right choice. Honestly, I'm actually leaning more Kefit scum and Alice town, not just because of how I'm being handled but how apparently Kefit approves of Kiro's "I'll accuse everyone" post.

Quote
On another note, I am growing cautiously wary of Alex - I think that the reasoning in his most recent attack on UK is quite poor and stretching of the facts at issue. Not enough to make me throw everything out and go "omg guys Alex is scum," but I'll revisit him after we get a flip from this duel.

You could start with my most recent wall, but I understand you might not want to spend that much time until this challenge is over.



Kefit

  • The Wild Draw Four of America
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #742 on: February 25, 2010, 11:46:52 PM »
Your most recent wall asks me to find Alex scummy because he's been acting too townie. That doesn't strike me as particularly good logic.

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #743 on: February 25, 2010, 11:57:52 PM »
@UK: I made the mistake of going onto the Internet Relay IRCs. My apologies.

Incidentally, your wall, while still not convincing me, is a MUCH, MUCH better job than your previous attempt yesterday. It's actually coherent and solid. Anyway: first off, where the fuck are Jam and K4U? Jam said she'd be around by now, and K4U has been curiously absent this entire bloody day. What the hell.

Anyway, I've thought about it for a bit. First off, I am growing more wary of Alex myself from his latest posts, they're more "what. just...what." than anything else, though. I'm honestly not sure what to make of them. Anyway, on-topic: I'm still going to edge on the side of Kiro here. There's just enough that doesn't add up about UK so far, combined with the Roukan behaviour, combined with the events of the past couple hours.

I'm still unsure about this. The only reason I'm giving Kiro a pass for his behaviour is his vacation. Really, his activity levels are otherwise inexcuseable, and one thing that I have to say UK has been doing that Kiro hasn't is showing actual effort and dedication. So if I'm wrong and UK flips Town, someone needs to take out Kiro tomorrow. I am certain of this. Anyway,

##Vote: Kiro
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Kitten4u

  • Ochophobic
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  • Too cute to kill
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #744 on: February 25, 2010, 11:58:02 PM »
##Vote Kiro
My favorite mythical creature? The honest politician.
A life cool.. where can I download one of those?
Hurray for apathy!

DA|Tumblr

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #745 on: February 25, 2010, 11:59:19 PM »
Your most recent wall asks me to find Alex scummy because he's been acting too townie. That doesn't strike me as particularly good logic.

You clearly aren't reading. I'm not saying he's too townie. What I'm saying is he attempts to give the appearance of townie opinions with set up speculation and theory contributions, while not contributing too much on analyzing other players. Hence why "pro-town" is in quotes.

And I just got hammered.

Guess what guys? K4U is scum and she thinks she just won the game. Guess I was wrong about Kefit after all.


UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #746 on: February 26, 2010, 12:00:04 AM »
Ok, I'm sorry, this deserves it's own post.

If you are town, K4U, that was the scummiest possible thing you could have done. What possesses you?


Kefit

  • The Wild Draw Four of America
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #747 on: February 26, 2010, 12:02:35 AM »
rofl what

can we get a mod in here plx

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #748 on: February 26, 2010, 12:05:07 AM »
Well, until the mod gets here, one last thought before I flip. I think scum has already won and my "town" reads ended up being scum after all. Rou, K4U, and Kiro are the scum.

* UncertainKitten facepalms

I suck at this game :(.


Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 6)
« Reply #749 on: February 26, 2010, 12:06:58 AM »
DUM DEE DOO

UncertainKitten, playing Fujino Shizuru, Town Student Council President was destroyed with the power of love!