Author Topic: Himelander Mafia Thread (Over! Scum Win!)  (Read 58528 times)

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #540 on: February 20, 2010, 12:56:59 AM »
If there's anything these last few posts seem to be pointing out, it's that everything about this setup is apparently a WIFOM. Seriously why is so much of this game setup discussion and so little of it actual hunting?

One thing I will say is this:
One more thing:  Alex tried to say that today's Hime Star condition was a message directly from Carthrat, telling us that we should abandon my strategy.  But the writeup said that the Hime Star was "bloated and foul."  Seems more likely that scum directly impose the Hime Star conditions.  Scum are afraid that the town will follow my strategy.  They set things up so I was most likely to die today.  Keep that in mind.
Besides the ego trip you seem to be going through by saying scum is making a deliberate effort to kill you, giving them the opportunity to determine the results seems somewhat absurd. Beyond other things, it would make K4U a guaranteed Townie if the claim is true - because if scum setting the days is normal, another role that can change it back to normal is almost invariably Town.

Serp's 'I can't say anything to defend myself' is anti-Town. Townies don't want to die so they would defend themselves to the end. End of discussion.

Not putting it to L-1 in case of quickhammer. Pretty sure some people haven't weighed in yet.

Chaore

  • Kai Ni Recipient Many Years Late
  • *
  • You Finally Did It, Kadokawa.
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #541 on: February 20, 2010, 01:00:30 AM »
Right. Uh, Back from a reread or two. Not sure what the hell I got out of i-

CHAORE! I WANT YOU TO CHOOSE BETWEEN ME AND SERPENTARIUS IN YOUR NEXT POST. NO MORE SNEAKING OUT OF IT!

Oh for god's sake.

This is fairly tough. I don't really like either of you, so it feels like a screw up is a lot worse this time around.

I'm going to go with UK should win. Frankly my call on her is more on how aggressive she is. I don't think she has ANY strong cases, but she seems to be trying to find scum. The fact she is currently like a rock is the worst part of her, so the only thing she needs is a good kick in the pants. Alex seems like he is currently giving her that.

Serp less so. If UK is too outgoing with her opinions, Serp is far too damn extrovertive with his. I get the feeling he isn't trying to get noticed. He isn't TRYING to get his points out, just make them look unsuspicious. It may be a mix of things holding him up rather than actual planning, but I can actually see this happening.

I don't like either of you really, but I like you better than Serp after a reread. If only because you're actually god damn looking. I'm going to think a shock or two might send you the right direction.

I'd vote, but we're almost to hammer.

NinjaSerp:

Oh. Huh.

I'm going to have to say this doesn't change my view. If only because it isn't meant to. I'm going to go through that, just let me find some advil or SOMETHING.

Chaore

  • Kai Ni Recipient Many Years Late
  • *
  • You Finally Did It, Kadokawa.
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #542 on: February 20, 2010, 01:20:32 AM »
Can you elaborate on that last bit? It seems shoved in.

And also either made of set up paranoia setting in or something interesting. I want to understand what you're trying to say there.

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #543 on: February 20, 2010, 01:21:57 AM »
If there's anything these last few posts seem to be pointing out, it's that everything about this setup is apparently a WIFOM. Seriously why is so much of this game setup discussion and so little of it actual hunting?

Just about any action at all can be used as WIFOM.  The definition of WIFOM is when someone says "To take course X would advantage me if I were scum, but I didn't take that action, so I must be town."  This argument opens the way for scum to take actions that put themselves at a mild apparent disadvantage, but to compensate for that with the townies' disproportionate pro-town read from that.  What's scummy is when people attempt to provoke that disproportionate pro-town read, whether on their own behalf or for another's.

Quote from: Rou
One thing I will say is this:Besides the ego trip you seem to be going through by saying scum is making a deliberate effort to kill you, giving them the opportunity to determine the results seems somewhat absurd. Beyond other things, it would make K4U a guaranteed Townie if the claim is true - because if scum setting the days is normal, another role that can change it back to normal is almost invariably Town.

Serp's 'I can't say anything to defend myself' is anti-Town. Townies don't want to die so they would defend themselves to the end. End of discussion.

Firstly, unless we know that scum are manipulating the Hime Star, we don't know that K4u's ability works in opposition to it.  Secondly, there's no reason why scum are any less likely to end up with a role on their team that can manipulate the Hime Star.  It'd be basically like giving them a public dayvig or a tracker or any other publicly verifiable role.

As for letting myself die being anti-town, that's not necessarily true.  If I were to kill UK, then I'd probably die tomorrow, quite likely to somebody I consider to be scummier than her.  I think that she has better odds of surviving to LyLo than I do, and I want it to be proven that my advice has been given from a townie perspective.

There are too many folks saying that strategy is bad for you all to be scum, but all you dupes ought to keep in mind that each day isn't a whole new game.  You're playing to stop scum from winning their victory condition.  Keep in mind how many heads they can possibly have.  Act to keep that number below their win condition.  Be willing to forfeit a battle if it'll win you the war - figuratively and literally speaking.  A tactic that seems to benefit the town in the short term (i.e. having untested combatants fight each other rather than scum) can make you lose in the long term (i.e. when you're put in pseudo-LyLo by scum potentially having claimed four heads).  Kilga put it best:

Quote from: Kilga
1 vs. 1 should still be Alex vs. Ciato to keep the number of living victors down and individuals that are not Alex and Ciato need to grow a pair instead of worrying about "what if we make the wrong decision????".

Cut:

Quote from: Chaore
Serp less so. If UK is too outgoing with her opinions, Serp is far too damn extrovertive with his. I get the feeling he isn't trying to get noticed. He isn't TRYING to get his points out, just make them look unsuspicious. It may be a mix of things holding him up rather than actual planning, but I can actually see this happening.

Have you been reading the game, Chaore?  Had I only voiced an opinion on who should fight who and who should end up dying, I would certainly still be alive by tomorrow.  The whole "case" on me has come from people thinking that my strategizing is scummy.  I still put it out there because I saw getting the word out as being more important than personally surviving to the endgame.  (And note, Rou, that if I were using that as an argument for my towniness, that would be WIFOM.)
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #544 on: February 20, 2010, 01:27:32 AM »
If you are going to pick me over Serp, Chaore, commit to it.

Take my place on my wagon

##Unvote

I want to see some bold from you so we can look at prior votecounts and point out "Oh, Chaore supported this person over that person"

Serp's post resolves the apparent contradiction.

Honestly, I'm leaning town vs. town. But, for obvious reasons I support my victory since I know I'm town and only suspect Serpentarius is. I wish he had posted more like this sooner.


Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #545 on: February 20, 2010, 01:30:29 AM »
Honestly, I'm leaning town vs. town. But, for obvious reasons I support my victory since I know I'm town and only suspect Serpentarius is. I wish he had posted more like this sooner.

What difference are you seeing?
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #546 on: February 20, 2010, 01:35:59 AM »
What difference are you seeing?

You appear to be taking more memorable stances, but upon further review I was somehow confusing you for Kiro. Don't mind me, I'm tired :S.


Chaore

  • Kai Ni Recipient Many Years Late
  • *
  • You Finally Did It, Kadokawa.
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #547 on: February 20, 2010, 01:40:35 AM »
##Vote: UncertainKitten

As easily said as damn done.

I wish he had posted more like this sooner.

Doubling on this. I'm actually hearing what you're thinking now, before I wasn't.

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #548 on: February 20, 2010, 01:42:31 AM »
Doubling on this. I'm actually hearing what you're thinking now, before I wasn't.

Alright, then what are you seeing now that you weren't before?
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Kitten4u

  • Ochophobic
  • *
  • Too cute to kill
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #549 on: February 20, 2010, 01:59:04 AM »
##Vote Serpentarius

I read through his posts again and I still cannot see him as scum.  As I said a lot of my read is just gut, but...Well I will be very shocked if Serp flips scum.

I've already posted my opinion on UK and I don't feel the need to repeat myself.
My favorite mythical creature? The honest politician.
A life cool.. where can I download one of those?
Hurray for apathy!

DA|Tumblr

Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #550 on: February 20, 2010, 02:01:35 AM »
UncertainKitten vs. Serpentarius status update

UncertainKitten (5) - Cid, Jam, Kefit, Alex, Chaore
Serpentarius (1) -  K4U

12 alive, 7 votes to win.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2010, 02:38:03 AM by Edible »

Chaore

  • Kai Ni Recipient Many Years Late
  • *
  • You Finally Did It, Kadokawa.
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #551 on: February 20, 2010, 02:02:41 AM »
Alright, then what are you seeing now that you weren't before?

What you actually think is going on.

Now I can look back and see when you said what. Before I wouldn't even quote you on if you thought something, because it seemed like you'd say it was just a possibility.

This post simply seems a fuckload more definite than your previous. You don't seem wishy-washy now.

By default, this makes your old posts look better now that I -know- what you're thinking and can pick those phrases out. This is helping me understand your train of thought.

Edible you messed up, K4U voted for Serp.

Kitten4u

  • Ochophobic
  • *
  • Too cute to kill
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #552 on: February 20, 2010, 02:03:56 AM »
Quote from: Edible
UncertainKitten (6) - Cid, Jam, Kefit, Alex, Chaore, K4U
Serpentarius (0)

Wait, what?  I voted for Serp, not UK.
My favorite mythical creature? The honest politician.
A life cool.. where can I download one of those?
Hurray for apathy!

DA|Tumblr

Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #553 on: February 20, 2010, 02:38:19 AM »
Haha, sorry.  It's been fixed. <_<

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #554 on: February 20, 2010, 03:28:54 AM »
Firstly, unless we know that scum are manipulating the Hime Star, we don't know that K4u's ability works in opposition to it.  Secondly, there's no reason why scum are any less likely to end up with a role on their team that can manipulate the Hime Star.  It'd be basically like giving them a public dayvig or a tracker or any other publicly verifiable role.
Which makes your entire 'hey maybe they're manipulating the Hime Star' crap entirely pointless.

Quote
As for letting myself die being anti-town, that's not necessarily true.  If I were to kill UK, then I'd probably die tomorrow, quite likely to somebody I consider to be scummier than her.  I think that she has better odds of surviving to LyLo than I do, and I want it to be proven that my advice has been given from a townie perspective.
Put it this way. If you're Town, you are 100% sure that your death will not kill scum. Are you 100% sure UK is Town? Because if not you could be giving scum a head.

And as for your strategy point, this extends extends to the point where apparently it's a bad idea to lynch the people you think are scummy if there are still winners lying around. Being indecisive and lynching our winners WILL screw us over unless all the scum challenge each other which is obviously never going to happen.

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #555 on: February 20, 2010, 04:14:09 AM »
Which makes your entire 'hey maybe they're manipulating the Hime Star' crap entirely pointless.

It seems like a pretty solid possibility.  So far the Hime Star conditions have been pretty anti-town.  If Tom's action was a prepared scum gambit, then it makes even more sense.  Scum might've been intending to have him do it since the start.  It's just something to keep in mind.

Quote from: Roukanken
Put it this way. If you're Town, you are 100% sure that your death will not kill scum. Are you 100% sure UK is Town? Because if not you could be giving scum a head.

If UK doesn't kill me, then someone else will.  The players that are commanding the most sway with the town right now are ones I consider scummy.  Even if I were to somehow survive this fight, I wouldn't expect to live through LyLo.  So, to minimize the chances of scum taking my head, I want to be killed by someone I consider fairly townie.

Quote from: Roukanken
And as for your strategy point, this extends extends to the point where apparently it's a bad idea to lynch the people you think are scummy if there are still winners lying around. Being indecisive and lynching our winners WILL screw us over unless all the scum challenge each other which is obviously never going to happen.

Every time scum die by this method, the one who killed that scum has not claimed a head.  This means that a new matchup between two untested scummy players may be decided.  If that matchup kills scum, then we've just killed one scum without giving him a chance to claim a head.  Furthermore, even if scum outnumber town in LyLo, the number of heads they claim can only be equal to the number of them that are alive at the time - it prevents any one scum from claiming more than one head.

It keeps scum reigned in even when we pick wrong, and every time we pick right puts us another kill ahead.  The disadvantage of letting people claim town heads without repercussion is that scum might claim one head upon victory, and a second head upon surviving through LyLo.

Hime Star conditions screw with this, it's hard to say what scum power roles will do, and Cid's apparent ability might allow us to deviate from the strategy a bit, but the basic premise of reducing the number of heads claimed by unflipped players doesn't require any further assumptions to be a good idea.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #556 on: February 20, 2010, 05:43:50 AM »
What I thought about Bard was a little less on what he's done and more on how the now-confirmed Scum have acted in regards to him. With Bard leading much of the fight over Pesco, why would 2 Scum try to bus Bard? Just get lost in the crowd of people voting for Bard's survival and make Town pick you out. I see how that approach is flawed as it ignores his own contributions, but that's how I usually approach a person who drops off the radar. Now that I look at it, Serp voted for Pesco's survival too so I guess that debunks that. All in all, I realize I could be very wrong and his latests posts just saying "I'm Town" and coasting along is getting worriesome.

Regarding today's challenge: still prefer Serp to die despite his big post. The issue is still that you trying to introduce strategies that potentially give Scum a chance to gain an edge is not Townie behavior. Have faith in the people that already have kills which you refuse to do. While I think Bard not living to LYLO is something we can consider now, I still disagree with killing off Alex due to the ludicrousy of Alex calling out 2 scumbuddies and still netting only 1 Town head with up to 3 Scum neutralized.

I really want to check K4U's reason to vote for Serp's survival, but I'm out of time. I'm taking a bus from Penang to Kuala Lumpur right this minute so I won't be around for at least the next 7 hours. Will try to get online this evening though, otherwise, tack on another 14 hours or whatever to that. Will work with everything else once a flip occurs.

Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #557 on: February 20, 2010, 02:55:50 PM »
For reals?! I come back 9 hours later and there's not a single new reply?!

Well, let me look over a few more things then.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #558 on: February 20, 2010, 03:16:07 PM »
Not much to respond to really. I guess the only issue I have with Kiro's post is that scum could always be bussing. The way I read the Bard vs. Pesco engagement is that it was rather up in the air for at least half the challenge's duration.


Kiro

  • Drinks: Everything
  • Sleeps: Anywhere
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #559 on: February 20, 2010, 03:45:02 PM »
K4U: All I've seen on your posts regarding Serp is a gut read. That's too minimal, can you describe anything more specific? I get your suspicions on UK for being a distraction, but you said stuff like both of them have said silly things. Why Serp's survival over UK's?

UK: Day 1 bussing just seems too premature. I think it was mentioned somewhere that each individual Scum is important in this game due to the mechanics. In essence, why bus early? Also goes back to my opinion on Alex.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #560 on: February 20, 2010, 03:47:31 PM »
Playstyle differences I guess. It may not even have been a hard bus, just a soft bus to clear him. I mean, I'm not averse to voting and lynching scumbuddies. Whether this is optimal play or not is a matter of opinion.

But, as for Alex, I don't lean scum on him. I do think Bard is a good play still.


Kitten4u

  • Ochophobic
  • *
  • Too cute to kill
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #561 on: February 20, 2010, 05:34:41 PM »
Quote from: Kiro
Why Serp's survival over UK's?

I think Serp is town.  I think UK is scummy.  It was a pretty easy choice for me really.

Quote from: Kiro
All I've seen on your posts regarding Serp is a gut read. That's too minimal, can you describe anything more specific?

Well, I can try, but explaining gut reads is hard. :S  I *think* my gut read comes from the same place that my town read on Rou comes from: Serp just looks like Serp.  If I had to compare I feel like his play is more similar to RKS Mafia over Invasion.  This just doesn't look like the same Serp that fought tooth and nail to keep himself alive until D4.

Quote from: Kiro
I get your suspicions on UK for being a distraction, but you said stuff like both of them have said silly things.

Uh no.  Why I find UK suspicious:

-For being in favor of quicker challengers earlier.  I still think this favors scum.
-For flinging suspicions around.  Some accusations in that WoT were strong, but a lot of it felt like flinging.  Some things felt like reaching as well.
My favorite mythical creature? The honest politician.
A life cool.. where can I download one of those?
Hurray for apathy!

DA|Tumblr

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #562 on: February 20, 2010, 05:38:20 PM »
I can't dispute the first, but I MUST dispute this

Quote
-For flinging suspicions around.  Some accusations in that WoT were strong, but a lot of it felt like flinging.  Some things felt like reaching as well.

Yes, my WoT took note of EVERYTHING I noticed, but as for "flinging suspicions around", I do believe I've stayed relatively close to my list of 5 people ever since that WoT. It's not like I'm trying to attack everyone and see what sticks, which is what you appear to be accusing me of. Honestly, you'd have a more believeable case if you said I was tunnelling.



FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #563 on: February 20, 2010, 06:12:10 PM »
For reals?! I come back 9 hours later and there's not a single new reply?!
Sorry, this game is really dragging on for me and I don't have the nerve to give everything my all by now. =_=

Quote
Every time scum die by this method, the one who killed that scum has not claimed a head.  This means that a new matchup between two untested scummy players may be decided.  If that matchup kills scum, then we've just killed one scum without giving him a chance to claim a head.  Furthermore, even if scum outnumber town in LyLo, the number of heads they claim can only be equal to the number of them that are alive at the time - it prevents any one scum from claiming more than one head.
And this falls flat on its face if there are 5 scum. You realise this, right?

Kitten4u

  • Ochophobic
  • *
  • Too cute to kill
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #564 on: February 20, 2010, 06:13:02 PM »
Quote from: UK
Yes, my WoT took note of EVERYTHING I noticed, but as for "flinging suspicions around", I do believe I've stayed relatively close to my list of 5 people ever since that WoT. It's not like I'm trying to attack everyone and see what sticks, which is what you appear to be accusing me of. Honestly, you'd have a more believeable case if you said I was tunnelling.

Lessee.   You're getting wishy washy on Kiro, you challenged Serp (who wasn't on the top suspects list) over Chaore (who was)...Bard is the only one you've really stuck with.  Then there was that switch on Alice (who wasn't one of your major suspects granted, but you did make a pretty bold accusation against him earlier). And before you say that you aren't wishy-washy on Kiro you said this:

Quote from: UK
Originally there was some scathing statement here about how retarded you all were for thinking Kiro's town. But after his initial posts, he seems to get a lot better and a lot more stancey. I can follow him more, and he's dropped most of the set up speculation. Honestly, this is a dead end for the time being. I'll keep reading him in case my mind changes.

It strikes me as wishy-washy.  Your convictions do not look strong in my opinion.
My favorite mythical creature? The honest politician.
A life cool.. where can I download one of those?
Hurray for apathy!

DA|Tumblr

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #565 on: February 20, 2010, 06:19:45 PM »
So, I'm not allowed to change my mind in light of new facts?

So, first, I'm accused of being too tunnely and convicted in my facts.

So I review them. And now I'm accused of being too wishy washy?

I explained why I challenged Serp over Chaore. It was a combination of town's will and the odds of giving scum a head.

I actually still suspect Chaore and Bard far more than Serp. Though he was in my second string options.

As for you accusing me of switching on Alice, once again, I reread.

You cannot defend this point adequetely since you fail to take into account both scenarios of "wishy washiness" are accompanied by either a partial or full reread.

I appreciate the attempt to paint me scummy with bad evidence, K4U. It will be remembered ^-^.


?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #566 on: February 20, 2010, 06:26:24 PM »
Still a bit busy at the moment, will make a proper post in a bit, but, to take things down another path of discussion: what makes you think that Serp is Town?
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #567 on: February 20, 2010, 06:29:37 PM »
Me? Well, now that he's decided to be more forthcoming in his posts, I see his logic a bit better, even if I disagree with some of it. It just feels like he's finally releasing some townie intent. I guess it could be a ploy to get people to vote in his favor since he's obv suicidal town or something. I really don't know what to say.


Bardiche

  • Mafia: Worst Game Ever
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #568 on: February 20, 2010, 06:30:11 PM »
##VOTE: Serpentarius

Warm fuzzy feelings.

Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Himelander Mafia Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #569 on: February 20, 2010, 06:36:37 PM »
UncertainKitten vs. Serpentarius status update

UncertainKitten (5) - Cid, Jam, Kefit, Alex, Chaore
Serpentarius (2) -  K4U, Bardiche

12 alive, 7 votes to win.