Let's take a look at Alice!:
this is Alice's first content post. And DEAR GOD THE CONTENT :S! The discussion of UK/UD actually feels a little weirder now. It's basically "so?" You spent a whole paragraph saying my "backpedal" was weird. It didn't really have a point though, since you didn't find me suspect for it, and overall it wasn't even scummy. Why did you pad your post like that? The points on Zakeri and Pesco, while long winded, are rather relevant to the game.
The paragraph on Chaore is...alright. It doesn't say as much as I'd like it to with that much text. Also, putting him as second suspect at this point doesn't look as good. The next paragraph on Arashi is practically coaching. Then again, the part about Sodium looks a bit like that as well, and Alice has been attacking him all game. The paragraph on Kanako is also alright, but was also correct so...yeah.
Overall, the end result of a vote on Chaore actually speaks well for Alice, and while there were a lot of unnecessary words [/hypocrisy], the points are still relatively clear. I'm slightly worried about the apparently Arashi coaching though.
Next post is decent.
Nothing wrong with next post...
this post clarifies why a paragraph was wasted on "Did you see UK do that? Why did UK do that? UK backing off the wagon can't really say much about here alignment. Why did UK do that?"
Next post is fine, as well as EBWOP
this reads as a lot of words on theory discussion and reiterating one request. It's fair, but could have been more succinct [/hypocrisy]
Next post is fine.
As is next.
OH GOD I'M FINALLY ON PAGE EIGHT!
see, there is the obvious problem with
this post of trying to derail flipped scum but...the case on Sodium put forth IS rather decent, so it's probably more null than normal.
this meandering post has two interesting things. One, it pokes me for not finding fault with Sodium...WHEN I NEVER ANALYZED HIM, and two, it is a vote for Kanako which IIRC was considered a potential swing wagon. Granted, since I did the same thing and I know I'm town, it's not as much a tell to me. But it's food for thought.
this post's first half seriously bugs me. It's more "I suspect Arashi but I'm probably wrong". this does not sit well with me, since it's the second time it's happened in favor of "better" suspects. You know, like Nietz. And, admitted, Chaore, who was dropped later that day though.
What's also odd is you are basically accusing him of something you did, regarding Kanako. Then again, in this analysis I haven't been above that myself. Not sure how to read this. Serp DID flip town.
overall, the post is solid, but has several unsettling points given the latest flips.
Next post is reasonably townie actually. Even if he knew my alignment (if he were scum), why would he defend me like that?
Honestly,
this bugs me too. It's the same thing with Arashi. "I suspect you, but I'm not going to vote you". Which, in turn, throws my idea that Arashi and Alice are scum together into a bit more flux. I could almost see Alice scum tying to two townies subtly to cause shit to fall apart if/when he flips. Alternatively, he could be tying to a townie and a scum, hoping the townie gets lynched first after him so that people assume the scumbuddy is town. There's a lot of play here, and I REALLY don't like it.
Next post is more of the same "Could be scum but let's lynch this (town) target first." Then again, that only works if I'm scum which I'm not. ARGH, dammit Alice :S.
Notable IS a little misrep since I ISO'd Kanako to read the posts I had previously skimmed, and this should have been obvious.
Next four posts seem fine...
this I dislike. Just as some of the other posts after that statement, I get a rather interesting misrep as if
I had actually voted myself, when I had not. Most of the players know that if I WERE going to do it, I WOULD HAVE.
Why did you say that, Alice?
Next two posts seem fine
Of a side note, Arashi very blatantly says this:
Alice is still the most Towny Pro-Town Townie to ever Town (on the very small chance he's not, he's doing a damned good job of faking it). Vig means Edible is confirmed Town.
I swear I'm getting something here...I think after this, though likely tomorrow morning, I want to reread Arashi/Excal. I almost want their flip anyway, but we are cutting it too close to be wrong at this point, assuming 4 scum.
Anyway, the next few posts Alice makes after that seem decent.
All page 18 posts check out fine, consistent, etc. Considering I basically agreed with the case on Serp I don't see it as illogical...
this post bothers me for one reason. It
completely avoids giving Alice the swing vote. Why would Alice want to avoid that, I wonder? I would think town Alice is more likely to put a placeholder vote on Serpy and do your reread as opposed to just put your cases out there and hope someone else makes the swing. But why would Alice want to avoid making the swing? This would assume Sodium is scum with Alice, which is kinda stupid...not sure what to make of this.
Most of the next post is fine, but this leaps out to me
Interestingly, while going over this reread I've become extremely unnerved of Arashi: in post#467 she attempts to tie herself to me a bit, and despite offering more showing that Sodium is Scummy, votes UK principally because UK has more posts! This is kind of...backwards, really. I've already summarized my opinion of her D1 posts, and in general there's just something that unnerves me about her a lot. I'm going to have to keep a very close eye on Excal once he finally starts posting.
This either starts to put paid to my Alice/Arashi theory, or Alice was rather sensitive of the building climate. Don't forget that Alice did a reread so he'd be noticing what was happening and who he was tied to as scum.
As mentioned,
this is a "Why the fuck are you asking? How does this help town?"
It's not a very strong tell IMO though...
I don't understand Alice's fatalism. You aren't incredibly likely to be lynched...
this post touches on some WIFOM, even if Alice admits it. Also, the thinking Sodium is not quite scum because I look bad also bothers me. That crazy Alice/Sodium pair may not be so crazy, as it seems that Alice is pretty good at only voting Sodium where it isn't likely to get out of hand.
this poke of me bothers me a bit. You admit both that I have no reasoning to back up my theoretical scumteam, but you then go on to say that my vote on Sodium, which is rather OBVIOUSLY telegraphed is weird and unreasoned?
What the fuck Alice?
Either way, Alice is potentially scum, but this is actually more based on Arashi/Excal's flip, so I'll need to reread them tomorrow.
Stuff I haven't really replied to yet:
I will note that Day 4 does bring up one thing that I was curious about. Namely, as to why Rat/Alice did not enquire about the Dayvig on Day flipping 2? We have the possibility of a second lynch each day, and it's never brought up? Seriously? And yes, those are the only two that's even remotely a tell for since I'm only figuring those two to be knowledgable enough in the finer tactics of the game to realise how awesome multiple dayvig is.
Except most people would assume a dayvig is one shot. At least around here. And it doesn't take a fucking rocket scientist to realize that a multiple dayvig is INCREDIBLY good for town. I'm mildly pissed at the condescension here, but more interested in why you assume this is at all a tell?
At any rate, Excal's wall on Alice is interesting indeed. Leaves a lot of wiggle room were Alice to be lynched.
