Okay. I've had periods of back-and-forth until now but consider my vote on Dan. (I'm not actually going to vote yet, even though I think there's 24 hours left? I feel like most of the important posts haven't happened yet. More on game theory in postgame.) It boils down to interactions and Conq. It's been at least
two times one time now that I've had to dissect an entire Scum Conq game for LYLO, and I'm surprisingly certain this isn't a Scum Conq game. Uh, I thought it was twice, apparently I'm making shit up. ANYWAY, there are way too many townie triggers for a good acting Scum Conq to have hit all of them, plenty of which are him looking into a bunch of stuff scum wouldn't have bothered looking into, a natural result of being involved in most consolidation phases & claim headaches, while Dan's play has been very simple. There's probably a distinction between Town Dan and Scum Dan in that Town Dan would have had at least some conviction during the last few phases. Scum Dan had fake, kind of weak conviction surrounding Dorian being town (something which Sky points out!), weak enough that it was discarded later in favor of fakeclaim hijinks. Think Town Dan would have at least settled his vote on Serela, DNA or Dorian instead of forming a lynchpool, addressing some claim stuff and active-lurking until now. Strongest conviction happened around the time he subbed in, during the bus, something which Serela actually points out in
his case a few days ago. The most interesting take-away here is probably that scum were looking at the governor being activated anyway, what made the bussing more attractive. It was possible that Dan planned on not lynching Shalako after Bard but the former dug himself into a hole with the claims and he got vigged anyway so we'll never know.
So, interactions, was it? If you thought I was taking the time to analyze you guys' play in-depth, nope, no way, interactions are way more telling. Not yours but the dead buddies', since Shalako/Bard/Sky play in a way that's more telling compared to you two. I... was going to link to Shalako/Sky interactions here, but I can't remember which in particular were important and it's 2 AM and I've gotta go. Uh, seriously, I don't know how to make this paragraph meaningful now. What's on my mind right now is that CONQ's side of D3 interactions with Sky looked really townie. Shrug, that'll do. It's the same as what I talked about earlier regarding involvement and generally thinking through the game instead of keeping it clean and simple like Scum Dan.
Lastly, how events in this game probably transpired. Scum Dan would be a JOAT most likely, and the reason for not using one of one/two commute shots on N1 is either because there was something more attractive to do (such as rolecop) or because a town commute fakeclaim wouldn't make sense if he'd have used it on N1 (better to use it later as town), or both. Whatever the case, it's actually perfectly reasonable that he would not have used it on N1. SB is killed N1 because he was an emerging global town read and was probably doc evasion (though I'm still ever so slighty paranoid that Scum Conq would have NK'd this). Raitaki is killed N2 either because of a rolecop or because the roleblock worked, and yet again, doc evasion. At this point Scum Dan caught on that Conq was likely crumbing a cop role so Conq was roleblocked. Cycle 3 is the big one - Conq is revealed as a one-shot cop so he isn't a priority anymore (wonder if scum suspected him of lying though...), and the interesting part is the commute shot, which brings to light another possibility with regards to the missing N3 kill - that Dan couldn't have taken it because he was busy commuting. Despite being likely blocked on Pato or Conq anyway, I thought this possibility to be appealing. "Why use it in the first place" is a good question, but maybe it was necessary for a good fakeclaim, or maybe he DID kill and commute at the same time, or maybe the role functions strangely. Anwyay, I think Serela brought this up, but on N4 it didn't matter to scum how many times Shadoweh was punted (because there was an odd number of players), so Dan simply went ahead and shot her, scoring the kill because she couldn't have shielded herself anyway. From there on it's simple.
I reeeeeealy should have been sleeping by now. :wikipedia:
