Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over

[Refa]

So no, it's nowhere near on the same level as you saying that you would self vote (to clarify, this would be a null tell on a phase where town could vig, but it wasn't).

[Elieson]

I have no words

This forum has that stupid post preview thing that comes up before even quick reply posts go through so how could that have worked rven? You took a gamble that even if this site functioned like SF, you could ninja a vote AND unvote in anticipation for me quickhammering?

-edit-

I guess its not the saaaaaame but my selfvote back then would've given town ammo towards the vig shot, not risked the game outright

[Refa]

Like I said. His casing opened my eyes to many things about you that I never really even thought about. After our debacle where we just kinda tore and tunneled into eachother (for the second game in a row), it wrapped up leaving me just confused and I tried to step back and not think about you since I felt like my reads were bias'd. Sky's casing said things about you that quite honestly I don't think I could've come up with, with my disposition towards you at the time.

Yes, I think it's legit, (and not buddying), in that I feel like he's finally paying attention to what I'm doing given the scum flips, rather than trying to case me for associative reads like everybody does in these vanilla-only games. The challenge right now, is for me to determine if what he's said has scum intent behind them (because right now it's a 50/50 even if I like what he says). Analyzing semantics is helpful and working in his favor because his style of posting aka linguistics isn't really different in his sudden elie-is-not-as-scummy-as-refa post.

I  mean, look at the entire game following D2. I've been scumread by anybody. Anyone lazy could even scumread me with enough effort, and probably get away with a vote on me (look at what happened with O4rfish and the inconclusiveness with everybody who voted for him).

Regardless of his reads on me (which I'm not going to hyperanalyze because whatever, they're his reads on me, I'm glad he's paying attention to me, even if he were scumreading me which is something?) He's paying more attention to you, which for what it's worth, is something that you have to agree with me on is something that wasn't really done in the grand scope of the game. You just kinda cruised through on town-enough play, and to see you get hyperanalyzed by someone other than me (since we already slaughtered eachother on what D3?) is cool. I feel like it's SkyPaladin's responsibility to do that to you at this point, so it's really difficult to get a tell from it since there's only two people he could analyze right now, and if he ignored you and continued scumreading me, I'd be calling him lazyscum and probably have voted him at the 36 hour mark.

Fair enough on your first reply (I basically felt the same way, so I'm not about to fault you for thinking the same thing), as well as your response to me asking if you thought that Sky Paladin was buddying with you.

I don't see how I've cruised through the game?  Like, at all.  The only reason I'm making less posts than I usually do is because there has been less content overall (whereas in SF games, there'd be like 50 pages by this point and it'd be the worst).  Sky analyzing me is pretty cool though, because it helped me to read him better.

Not really sure what else to say here?  Waiting for your reply to my scumread on you.

[Refa]

I have no words

This forum has that stupid post preview thing that comes up before even quick reply posts go through so how could that have worked rven? You took a gamble that even if this site functioned like SF, you could ninja a vote AND unvote in anticipation for me quickhammering?

-edit-

I guess its not the saaaaaame but my selfvote back then would've given town ammo towards the vig shot, not risked the game outright

That's why I unvoted so soon.  You'd basically be voting after my unvote post went through, and incriminating yourself in the process.

But...you're confirmed town FYPOV.  You're basically costing town a mislynch for what?  That's why I have like, biblical objections towards O4rfish selfvoting.  You do not do that as town.  Ever.

[Refa]

Actually, I want to know why me posting ##Unvote (without any reasoning whatsoever) is scummy. 

[Elieson]

You're scumreqding me because I'm confusing you with my post, in particular my defenses and read switches. I see why you'd be confused by my play because even I barely understand my reads, but I think you're more town reading sky than you are scumreading me...(you didn't say that though)

Also what's Occam's razor

-edit

I thought you edited a selfvote to Unvote because the warning I saw displayed the Unvote and the I Quit posts back to back, so I thought u didn't see my reply saying I was Here until later on and you were trying to double back

[Refa]

You're scumreqding me because I'm confusing you with my post, in particular my defenses and read switches. I see why you'd be confused by my play because even I barely understand my reads, but I think you're more town reading sky than you are scumreading me...(you didn't say that though)

Also what's Occam's razor

-edit

I thought you edited a selfvote to Unvote because the warning I saw displayed the Unvote and the I Quit posts back to back, so I thought u didn't see my reply saying I was Here until later on and you were trying to double back

It's a combination of the two, yes.  Occam's Razor is basically that the simplest explanation (the one that requires the least hoops to go through) is generally correct (obviously not always true).

Why would I selfvote as scum after making that enormous reads post?  That's like throwing all of my effort away for nothing.  Also I'm pretty sure editing posts is against the rules.  I get where you're coming from now, but it still confuses me at the same time (if that makes any sense) that you came to such a conclusion.

[Refa]

To clarify, it's less that I'm townreading Sky and more that he makes less sense as scum over you.

[Sky_Paladin]

zzz ok no hammer from me so that's why I'm obv town.  Reading now. 

[Refa]

You weren't on at the time?

[Sky_Paladin]

Last I checked Eli is voting for you.

[Refa]

He unvoted.

Anyways Elie, I'd like some definitive thoughts from you on me and Sky's alignments.  Surely that's not too much to ask considering phase ends in < 10 hours?

Don't think there's much more for me to do at this point besides responding to both of your posts and reevaluating my reads based on them.  Finally, I can work on my homework (never thought I'd see the day where I'd say something like that).  Should be here all the way until deadline, so that's cool.

[Refa]

I almost townread you just for that post alone because if you genuinely believed that Elieson still had his vote on me, you'd have voted me as scum...but at the same time, it'd be so easy to WIFOM as scum and aaaaaaaaaaa I don't know what to think anymore.

[Sky_Paladin]

I somehow missed the unvote.  Never mind. 

I'm still putting my wife to bed and I'll read/post properly in a short time. 

The main reason I think I'm obv town is because there's no world where scum!Sky would have hit NNR and then pushed for a Refa lynch, when it would have been far easier to hit Refa, push for an Eli lynch.  Even with NNR out, there's no reason for me to have pushed for scum!Refa when scum!Eli would have been super easy to sell.  Basically, if you want to posit scum!Sky, you have to first explain the night kills of Shadoweh/NNR all of whom were town reading me, over Refa/Serela/Oarfish who weren't town reading me.  etc. 

So that's why I was kind of interested to see which of you would come to this conclusion first and vote the other.  Now that some shots have been fired I'll go back and review what happened. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Just quickly, this is my second to last check in.  I'll be around again in about 7 hours before I head off to Kyoto but then I am afk til phase end.

[Refa]

Yeah, I already kind of figured that out on my own thanks.  Anyways, could you answer my questions BEFORE doing anything else?  Just need that and Elieson's final thoughts, and if neither raise any questions that NEED to be addressed, I'll probably lay my vote down then.

[Elieson]

Definitive thoughts?

Comparatively speaking, SkyPaladin has been more "out there" in terms of scumhunting, but his style of scum hunting, until this phase, has been ringing bells with me.with crunch time pressure kicking in, I feel swayed towards him being slightly more likely town because of:

-more aggressive analysis
-more content posts
-more protostyle Objective consideration

Which I weigh now more over you being town because of your:

-more serious play style (when your town meta more often suggests otherwise)
-difficult to interpret behavior due to a hefty display of emotion


That being said, you did make me rethink my position on SkyPaladin with your questioneering since:

SkyPaladin's hunting and results DID flip from his reads on me for 90% of the game, even though he is presenting them as "Elie isn't as bad as I thought"

@Skys recent post

That's easy. When I was the universal scumread from d3-5,

Actually for users other than O4rfish, its not as easy to answer that as I thought unless I say WIFOM BRO but that's worthless so hmm

[Elieson]

Fwiw ringing bells is mainly pointed toward the aggressive nature and confidence/proclamations of  reads.

Dead Scum's treatment of refa is less favorable than that of which towards SkyPaladin

[Elieson]

I'm about 60:40 on scum being Refa:SkyPaladin but it was 80:20 yesterday so I'm wondering where the next few hours will place my head

[Sky_Paladin]

@Refa

Additionally, you expanded on your BT case, which is also good because I'd expected you to have dropped it as scum by now considering that you were already supporting a lynch on Dr. Rawr.  Your final vote of the day was on Elieson, worst associative read ever.

Explain this remark. 

Your suggestion of lynching one of NNR/O4rfish so that they can vig the other is horrible considering that you were townreading NNR for being the counterwagon to Dr. Rawr earlier.  Why would you ever want a townread shot? 

I saw NNR and Oarfish as an unintelligible mess.  I wanted one of them out of the game; I ultimately settled on Oarfish. 
I also couldn't rule out opposed scum wagons on day 2. 

I've already commented on my issues with your Day 6 content, but that being said, I don't really get why Scum!You would intentionally choose to case me over Elieson.  I'm a much harder mislynch than Elieson (especially considering that he was townreading me on the previous day), and if you were planning on tunneling on me, killing Elieson over NNR would have served your purposes far better (basically the only way I can see you in the current scenario as scum is if you made a mistake when you sent in your kill).  Still would like for you to respond to my issues with your posts today because I did end up ISOing myself (desperate times call for desperate measures) and like...I'm obvious town as fuck?  There's so much stuff that you'd never catch me dead saying as scum in years.

Pretty much this is why you should have been voting Eli already.  One of you knows *for sure* I'm town.  The other one should have had a very easy pick between myself and the other and neither of you voted.  I get it. 

From Eli's position, she has a harder choice, because she's picking between two of her main scum reads of the game.   I can appreciate indecisiveness from this slot as town or scum.  From your position, you have essentially conf-town!Sky and universal town-read Eli.  Yet you said you wouldn't case Eli until Sky showed you proof that he was conf-town?  That's stalling.  I appreciate that you then went right in to posting fairly soon after but that logical disconnect is really telling in my opinion. 

He basically townread scum on days when they were viable wagons and scumread them when they weren't...I just can't see town playing like that ever.

This however is very accurate and may be the deciding factor. 

@Refa what questions did you want answered?
Re Super Busser - We played one game together on SF and I seem to remember you being lynched and flipped scum. 

[Sky_Paladin]

universal town-read Eli

wow

universal scum-read Eli. 

It's 2:15 am and I am not at my sharpest. 

[Refa]

Definitive thoughts?

Comparatively speaking, SkyPaladin has been more "out there" in terms of scumhunting, but his style of scum hunting, until this phase, has been ringing bells with me.with crunch time pressure kicking in, I feel swayed towards him being slightly more likely town because of:

-more aggressive analysis
-more content posts
-more protostyle Objective consideration

Which I weigh now more over you being town because of your:

-more serious play style (when your town meta more often suggests otherwise)
-difficult to interpret behavior due to a hefty display of emotion

What do you mean by ringing bells (as in, town or scum)?  I can get why being more aggressive is townie, but the second isn't telling at all (activity is only townie on the earlier days where scum is more inclined to lurk.  Uh, not sure what you're getting at with your third point; care to elaborate?  Also, what do you make of  Sky's reasoning for why he's obvious town (considering I posted the same reasoning myself, it's kind of obvious what my position on it is)?

You were modding my most recent scum game...I wasn't taking the game seriously at all.  I don't really get how my town meta suggests otherwise.
Am I really coming across as super emotional?  Fuckdammit, sorry about that; it was not my intention to do so ("emotion is a null tell" ~ eclipse).

[Refa]

@Refa
Explain this remark. 

I saw NNR and Oarfish as an unintelligible mess.  I wanted one of them out of the game; I ultimately settled on Oarfish. 
I also couldn't rule out opposed scum wagons on day 2. 

Pretty much this is why you should have been voting Eli already.  One of you knows *for sure* I'm town.  The other one should have had a very easy pick between myself and the other and neither of you voted.  I get it. 

From Eli's position, she has a harder choice, because she's picking between two of her main scum reads of the game.   I can appreciate indecisiveness from this slot as town or scum.  From your position, you have essentially conf-town!Sky and universal town-read Eli.  Yet you said you wouldn't case Eli until Sky showed you proof that he was conf-town?  That's stalling.  I appreciate that you then went right in to posting fairly soon after but that logical disconnect is really telling in my opinion. 
This however is very accurate and may be the deciding factor. 

@Refa what questions did you want answered?
Re Super Busser - We played one game together on SF and I seem to remember you being lynched and flipped scum.

It's a joke, because Elieson hasn't flipped yet.

Fair enough, I suppose; I had the same thoughts floating around my head myself, so I can see another townie actually acting on them.

What does voting Elieson accomplish?  If I'm wrong about my read on you, I lose.  If I'm right, well...what's the benefit over hashing it out for a few hours to come to a more definite conclusion.

Not really lol, I assumed that you were going to be on at the time and I'd be waiting 15 minutes tops for reasons that you were obvious town.  If I agreed with them, then I wouldn't have had to ISO you at all and it would have saved me a good 1-2 hours of my life that I'll never get back.  Since you weren't around to explain your reasoning, I sighed internally and went through with the ISO on you after all.

I was recruitable mafia in that game.  My plan was to get recruited on N1 and sell out my entire scumteam the next day.  It's not indicative of my typical scum play.

[Sky_Paladin]

OK this post. here. 

Sky, I'm not famous for super bussing (where did you even get that idea), but if you thought I was, then I'm confused as to how this didn't warrant mention elsewhere in your analysis. 

Like I mentioned before, we played together on SF and about the only meta I got from you was super busser.  That's all I can remember except the game got cancelled and Junko spam posted nearly 300 pages of complete garbage and nobody vigged her ughhghhghh

I didn't mention it because I hadn't cased you before.  I was town reading you for most of the game because you defended me partially on day 1 and I liked that.  I thought that scum were more likely to be pushing that wagon. 

I'm not really seeing how BT's content clears you.  You say that he was constantly pushing you, but all I'm seeing is one or two complaints in your general direction without even a vote to back them up. 

Rightyo.  'One or two complaints' does represent roughly 25% of BT's content in the game. 

Secondly, I think the interactions of votes near phase end on day 4 bears note.  Your preferred pick was Oarfish.  You consolidated on to BT (and you also consolidated on to Rawr).  You never stayed on any wagon that was lynched, you always consolidated on to one, with the exception of Oarfish. 

When NNR pushed the Oarfish option, you and I both went there.  But I was the first one to switch back to BT when it looked like time was running out.  NNR and you followed. 
I want to consider if we both acted with the same essential motive and Eli was uninvolved scum or not. 

Why is he town for casing you (he didn't even analyze your later content that day) FYPOV?

Because it's content.  Town makes cases.  Scum gives reads list and debates semantics. 

[Refa]

Questions I want you to answer:
-Why is Elieson town for casing you (FYPOV)?  PEdit That's fine, but earlier you said he was scum for the same content.  What changed?
-What do you make of my response to you?  Can you understand where I'm coming from?  Why or why not?
-Why were you so sure that Serela was scum throughout the game?  I'm just struggling to understand this.
-Already answered why you'd lynch NNR/O4rfish, so that's cool.
-While you're explaining past scumreads, why were you actually scumreading Shadoweh?  I mean, I'm inclined to treat casing Shadoweh itself as null because both of you cased Shadoweh (so town had to have made that mistake), but by answering this question I'll get some insight into your motivations for doing so.
-What's your scum meta?  I wish I could ask a more reliable source here, but fuck Elieson has barely played with you as well.

[Refa]

I didn't mention it because I hadn't cased you before.  I was town reading you for most of the game because you defended me partially on day 1 and I liked that.  I thought that scum were more likely to be pushing that wagon. 
Rightyo.  'One or two complaints' does represent roughly 25% of BT's content in the game. 

Secondly, I think the interactions of votes near phase end on day 4 bears note.  Your preferred pick was Oarfish.  You consolidated on to BT (and you also consolidated on to Rawr).  You never stayed on any wagon that was lynched, you always consolidated on to one, with the exception of Oarfish. 

When NNR pushed the Oarfish option, you and I both went there.  But I was the first one to switch back to BT when it looked like time was running out.  NNR and you followed. 
I want to consider if we both acted with the same essential motive and Eli was uninvolved scum or not.

My problem is that he never actually pushed you or laid a vote down on you, just made some offhand comments about how he was totally cool with lynching you without backing up that conviction.

I consolidated on Dr. Rawr because I had to consolidate on him to get a lynch, but the BT consolidation was something that I mentioned being perfectly OK with long before I actually did it (since if he was town, he'd be vigging my numero uno scumread anyways).

We may have had the same motive, but this shouldn't be a point against Elieson; if he was on at deadline, it would be, but I don't recall him being there?

[Elieson]

Hmmm

Of the other potential kills, who suspected refa other than me?

Oarfish and serela said almost nothing about refa. Neko and Shadoweh...I can't recall them having a beef with Refa (he was fairly null/leaning town/only appeared on charts). If SkyPaladin were scum, he could logically have killed people leaving refa alive, assuming that if he were to score a mislynch, it would be pheasible on Refa compared to anybody else that I didn't have much of a read on.

Except Shadoweh is probably the only person other than Refa that id be exprcted to vote for late in the game but hmmmmm. O4rfishs serela kill was just an unpredictable wildcard meaning that made the Shadoweh kill probably matter more than intended


Hmmmm

[Sky_Paladin]

This post I'm so tempted just to sheep it but yeah I'm not gonna vote until I get on the train.  How much time til phase end?  If I have to set my alarm for 7 oclock again ghgghgg

-Why is Elieson town for casing you (FYPOV)?  PEdit That's fine, but earlier you said he was scum for the same content.  What changed?

The main thing that changed was I had been scum reading Eli/Serela as buddies, or somethign was going on there.  I was so sure.  I can't explain to you how confident i was that Serela was scum.  I thought - and still do!- that I had caught her lying about her rvs vote.  But on day 5 it was obvious Serela was town and on day 6 I have to at least consider that Refa is scum, and that means Eli has a chance of being town.  I'd probably been conf-bias reading her up until then, almost certainly because she was attacking me all game.  So I went to reread it and think "Is this content that town could make?" and then I remembered that town want to make cases and be communicatable, scum want to obfuscate things and not. 
Is what I want to say.  I'm actually very sleepy and not sure what content you're referring to here. 

-What do you make of my response to you?  Can you understand where I'm coming from?  Why or why not?

I don't know, it's 3 am , and I can't parse walls any more. 

I'm underwhelmed with Eli's content this day phase though. 

-Why were you so sure that Serela was scum throughout the game?  I'm just struggling to understand this.

Because I caught her lying day 1 and she happily contradicted herself at least twice and nobody gives a fuck.  That hit my enrage button.  I wanted her dead.  I needed her dead because she is an anathema to all that I live and stand for.  I try for logic.  I really do.  I have a degree that says at some point, I must have passed some kind of logic course called 'statistical analysis' and I did it well.  And I'm really an excellent software debugger if I say so myself, which I just did. 

Most of the time people are consistent and follow the three main laws of physics.  Serela is none of these things.  The rest of you are like well-behaved numbers; numbers yes, that follow rules and fit into formula's and equations and I can press buttons and pull levers and an expected behavior or something close to it will come out.  Serela isn't a real number.  She's not even a floating point or an inquantifiable constant like pi.  She's, just, k^2 = -1.  I can't deal with it. 

And if I hadn't had her town confirmed on day 5, I might have taken the Oarfish option.  But she was confirmed town and so was Oarfish so that ought to be a really interesting graveyard topic for us all to read. 

-While you're explaining past scumreads, why were you actually scumreading Shadoweh?

I've been scum with Shadoweh before. 
This was not really her scum game so I was null on her for the longest time.  Scum!Shadoweh is more passive/reactive.  However I saw her flipflop on her Serela read, and I thought Serela was scum, and when Shadoweh picked at Serela, Serela didn't blink.  Normally Serela flares up at the slightest hint of provocation.  So I thought "Ahah, well if Serela is scum, Shadoweh must be too."  And by now I was certain Serela was scum, so it was easy to think that Shadoweh must be too, even the point of partially disregarding her meta. 

-What's your scum meta?  I wish I could ask a more reliable source here, but fuck Elieson has barely played with you as well.

I have been told by different players that I over use information instead of analysis/tend to intimidate/threaten players. 
I also this one time tried to lie my way out of a confirm guilty but had to self hammer when another detective appeared with a guilty on my buddy so we'll never know if I would have pulled it off. 
I have also been told that I'm a lot more careless with my vote as scum.

[Sky_Paladin]

I think there's a serious danger I may not be able to be here at phase end and may have to drop a vote down now.  How long until phase end?

[Elieson]

About 9 hours