Author Topic: Volcanic Mafia 2015 - Game Over (Read 48067 times)

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #300 on:** April 10, 2015, 10:51:21 AM »

Quote

I guess I could sheep the O4rfish case, but I think I'd rather see Sky Palladium lynched.

This quote to be exact. I'd expect Scum Dormio to hop the wagon more quickly when it was clear Sky was going to live D1.

ANYWAY I'll stop posting about Dormio now.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #301 on:** April 10, 2015, 10:52:47 AM »

I cannot make head or tail of that spreadsheet. Can you please explain how to read it and what the conclusion is?

That aside I do think your scum team pick looks great...

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #302 on:** April 10, 2015, 11:22:24 AM »

##Vote: Oarfish
The problem with Oarfish is that they have yet to vote anyone and include a valid reason as to why they think the person is scum. Regardless of his end of D1 post, this is still the best reason I need to vote him.

I'd also like to add that I still have a deathwish for Serela. After she returned from the blithering argument with Sky she's committed to sidelining and went pretty passive, just sticking to the Oarfish wagon. The arguments I made about Serela earlier apply just as well, although with Oarfish she at least contributed something.

I'm a bit more on the fence about Sky now but I'm still leaning pretty badly against him, maybe he'll improve.
Obligitory "Holy fuck Dan is in this game?" and "I forgot Rawr and Zak are in this game". I'd still lynch Zak for lurking, I like his lurking the least.

No other real definitive scumreads at the moment. I like Bard and Mitsuki still, still my best reads.

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #303 on:** April 10, 2015, 11:23:46 AM »

I also have bad gut on Elison but that's mostly because I can't take his posts seriously.

BT · « **Reply #304 on:** April 10, 2015, 03:58:57 PM »

The scummiest thing about Oarifice to me remains his defense, because like Bard says he just kind of disappears in the middle of it. "Today's experiment failed" and other resigned remarks when the wagons are tied, mostly makes sense as overwhelmed scum. Townies usually fight their last-second wagons.

Then the posts today don't help because they prove an inability to scumhunt. It's just arbitrary 'fit into this template' stuff.

Better than my feelings yesterday.

##Vote O4rfish

Would like Sky to answer why he sagely responds, "Yes, that's a nice scumteam" to aforementioned awful template stuff. He didn't even suspect me or Elie in the past which makes it extra 'what'. Wait, I had to check to make sure, he did drop a one-liner about me being scum if Serela is scum. That's not very fleshed out.

I want to read some more but I'm out for most of today.

BT · « **Reply #305 on:** April 10, 2015, 04:00:47 PM »

EBWOP: That's these-24-hours "today", not these-72-hours "today".

Bardiche · « **Reply #306 on:** April 10, 2015, 04:02:37 PM »

Some explanation of O4rfish's sheets is required. While I admire the effort you're putting forth, and it goes a long way to dissuading me from your lynch, O4rfish, it's hard to get what you're trying to say. It doesn't help you're still inviting us to make conclusions rather than doing it yourself.

I disagree with BT that "posts today don't help", because inability to scumhunt isn't necessarily scummy. Incompetence can come from both sides, and in this instance O4rfish is a rare enough player that I'll forgive some dubious methods provided he comes with good explanations and redeems himself.

##Unvote
##Vote: NNR
Chiefly wishy-washy attitude there and while his reasoning seems sound at surface level, it feels like NNR's hardly even read what they're doing and can't be bothered to actually investigate. Even though he never mentions O4rfish, he suddenly would've lynched him? And today, he doesn't even seem to acknowledge O4rfish's posts.

I just don't read any real effort here and think NNR is just going after what's easy without involving himself much. Considering he's suspicious of O4rfish, Serela, Sky Paladin and Zak, it seems like a quartet of easy.

Elieson · « **Reply #307 on:** April 10, 2015, 04:46:37 PM »

I'm 900% confused at the spreadsheet, and this is the first time i'm playing somewhere that screenshots are allowed, so that's new for me;

Regarding my Unvote yesterphase (9 minutes prior to phase end); I wanted time to think and I didn't expect BT to sideswip us out of nowhere with 4 minutes to go when people were posting every 30 seconds

2besrs; BT sniping Phase End early in obvious activity was bad and his current vote on O4rfish is equally bad because he's voting for someone who's obviously doing things, and just needs to clarify them.

For the record I do not think O4rfish is scum right now. Hindsight is 20/20 but I would've voted for Dormio, had Phase not ended while i was typing up my vote post

Elieson · « **Reply #308 on:** April 10, 2015, 05:20:32 PM »

whoops

##Vote BT

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #309 on:** April 10, 2015, 07:24:02 PM »

I disagree with Bard. I've been wishy-washy with exactly one player, Sky, and he's been back and forth between 'sensible voter' and 'Serela-tier fluffposter'. It's not an easy read to make. He also posts really insane shit as scum sometimes, from what I remember, but I can't remember if he does this as town.

I fail to see how my suspicions are bad. I didn't comment on Oarfish on D1 because he basically failed to ping on my radar. The Oarfish wagon only started up after I had been gone for the last part of D1 and that's where most of his 'content' was.
I will also note Oarfish's 'content' today is literally quoted as 'Oarfish Special Insane Conspiracy Theory!' and has zero explanation. He also fails to put a vote down or give any reads whatsoever. There is no reason to think he's town based on his D2 posts or his D1 shenanigans.

I will note Dan has a meta (which I will take with a grain of salt) of lurking ultra-hardcore and having posts with even less content then usual, unless he makes a ridiculous game-breaking gambit to confirm him as scum, and so far he's followed pretty well with that meta.
He has reads with zero explanation on D1 and has a vote on the town Dormio wagon, so I'm not seeing his angle..

Zak's posts only seem to try when he's brought up, which is a problem because he barely posts. Some of his posts have been good, like his Apr 7th stuff, but he's not posted anything good since then and his last post was really lazy.

It's not easy reads if they're good ones, and it's not like I'm not making these without coming up with reasons for them or sheeping them.

SB · « **Reply #310 on:** April 10, 2015, 07:58:10 PM »

Prod dodge because I need to reread things and I've been busy all day. I might come back and content before sleeping but I dunno how likely it is.

WHMZakeri · « **Reply #311 on:** April 10, 2015, 08:16:38 PM »

I'll show you lazy.

##Vote: BT

Refa · « **Reply #312 on:** April 10, 2015, 08:38:06 PM »

Quote from: O4rfish on April 10, 2015, 09:13:41 AM

Ideally, Scum would be on the majority wagon while voicing concern over whether it was truly a Scum wagon or not. Possibly the third scum would be on a different wagon. Then, they would switch to the other wagon, even hammering it at the last minute for extra towncred (from preventing the no-lynch). The entire scumteam would not end up on the final wagon, so the two switching scumvotes would split if the third was already on that wagon.

I...uh...what...just...so confused right now. Why would scum be on the majority wagon while voicing concerns over the wagon (or rather, why is this something that only scum would do)? How would they get towncred for lynching a townie (in the rules, it states that lynches are mandatory). I don't even know what you're trying to get at with that last sentence. Also can you please explain your graphs, because they make no sense to me. Who exactly are you suspecting anyways?

Quote from: Elieson on April 10, 2015, 04:46:37 PM

I'm 900% confused at the spreadsheet, and this is the first time i'm playing somewhere that screenshots are allowed, so that's new for me;

2besrs; BT sniping Phase End early in obvious activity was bad and his current vote on O4rfish is equally bad because he's voting for someone who's obviously doing things, and just needs to clarify them.

They're not allowed (RTFR).

As someone who procrastinates all of the time (not just referring to mafia here), it's a horrible idea to wait 5 minutes before deadline to start producing actual content; at that point, people should just be making votes and ending the damn phase already. Hammering 5 minutes before that isn't scummy (especially in a game with a mandatory lynch); like seriously, where is the scum benefit in doing that? Don't agree with his Oarfish vote either but your defense is pretty lazy considering doing things is not indicative of alignment.

Speaking of BT, here's a reply to his earlier complaint (and more!!). It's not Oarfish saying that he "couldn't believe that he rolled town" that was so townie, but moreso the way he said it; basically it was mostly because of his tone/wording, if you get what I mean. Like, I agree that most of Oarfish's earlier content is scummy (and I was sure that at least one of the wagons was scum, because of the way they builded up), but his "scumslip" (I'm still not seeing how exactly that's a scumslip, honestly; the scummiest part there was how he just disappeared, and even that has little benefit for scum) just doesn't add up with his previous posts (for the record, a lot of his content today is incomprehensible, so it's kind of hard for me to draw any conclusions there; tonewise it reads as town in a bad position still trying to contribute).

Since there aren't any actual roles in this game, I figure that scum's kills are based purely on content (what, am I not good enough to get N1'd ;_;). Anyways, their kill on Vhaltzsuki makes no sense to me. Yeah, most people were townreading the slot by the end of the day (more or less) and they had a lot of content, but like...Mitsuki basically waffled on her primary scumreads (Bardiche/Serela) and didn't seem to have any other suspicions going into D2. It's not the kill I'd make as scum, at any rate. I can't really see SB doing something like that either (uh...I don't really know how most of the other alive players play other than Elieson, sorry), which is good because I didn't really have a definite read on him other than being fine with his posts/thought processes.

Ending the post here even though I have more to add (specifically, my scumreads/votes) for prod dodge reasons and also so that people can reply to my points here sooner.

Serela · « **Reply #313 on:** April 10, 2015, 11:13:34 PM »

Even completely ignoring the "scumclaim?" shenanigans, O4rfish's d1 was really scummy. But, I have no idea what to make of how he's entering D2 :S No one really seems to understand it, though, so I guess that's nothing surprising.

Not entirely sure what NNR means about accusing me of 'sticking to the oarfish wagon', it was consolidation time and I also thought o4rfish was increasingly scummy? o.o I can't really argue with the low-content parts but I hate d1 etcetc things I say nearly every game

Rawr is max tier forgettable and is looking to be continuing that way, so I'm getting ready to put a fire under him for it because it's not D1 anymore. Dan is Dan, and the difference between town!Dan and scum!Dan is generally pretty clear around d3, so as much as I dislike what his meta is, whatever.

Not sure if I want to opening vote Rawr or O4rfish. O4rfish's D2 opener just has me confused. It's weird that it's over a day into d2 because actually like half the game still hasn't really done a single thing? Or maybe a third. Since I took so long to do this post I'm guilty of that too I guess! Elieson, move your vote somewhere else unless you've got something else in your case, a hammer going down 4 minutes to deadline is not scummy outside of really specific situations that don't apply here.

This post really isn't comprehensive enough so I'll probably be making another one by the time I sleep, but like, Zak/SB/Rawr don't exist, O4rfish doesn't make sense, Ellie's vote is silly, SkyPal hasn't gotten going yet, WELL I GUESS I'LL PROBABLY NEED TO BE DOING WAGON ANALYSIS FROM D1 INSTEAD AT THIS RATE :T I guess I should be doing that nayway

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #314 on:** April 11, 2015, 12:00:25 AM »

Day 2.1 - Votals
BT (2) - Elieson, Zakeri
O4rfish (2) - NekoRex, BT
NekoRex (1) - Bardiche
Not Voting: ActionDan, Dr Rawr, O4rfish, Refa, SB, Serela, Sky_Paladin

You have 46 hours remaining in the day. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

ActionDan and Dr Rawr have been prodded.

Dr Rawr · « **Reply #315 on:** April 11, 2015, 12:30:08 AM »

Yea don't worry I'll make a post when I get home from work or something like that

O4rfish · « **Reply #316 on:** April 11, 2015, 12:35:53 AM »

Right, here's the full spreadsheet.

1: the player slot and name. Dormio is in slot 7.
2: when that player votes, and who they vote for. Here, NNR votes for Dormio.
3: who that person is currently voting for during a votal. Here, BT is voting for Elieson.
4: the number of people on their wagon. Here, Elieson has one person on their wagon. I used b because the letter w was too similar to the letter v, but that was made irrelevant when I got rid of the v.

5: the number of votes the player placed that day. Here, Dr Rawr has placed 1 vote during d1.
A vote for 0 is an unvote.
Initially, while I was first making the spreadsheet, I had converted the names into numbers, so Oarfish would be 9, and then converted them back into names, and then I realized that wasn't helpful or necessary.

O4rfish · « **Reply #317 on:** April 11, 2015, 12:52:16 AM »

My scumteam pick at that time was BT, Elieson, and a third member who ended up being Skypal.
1: BT is bussing Elieson.
2: the third member of the team has to be voting for Dormio.
(BT and Elieson did not both switch to Dormio, so in this ideal hypothetical case there was a good reason they could not have done so, and that reason was probably that the third member was already voting for Dormio)
3: Skypal is the most likely person to already be on Dormio's wagon
(In the ideal, the third scum player would have been more vocal than ActionDan. Zak would have been a decent third member, but I did not consider him at the time)
4: and while BT was bussing Elieson, Elieson was bussing Skypal.

O4rfish · « **Reply #318 on:** April 11, 2015, 01:02:12 AM »

Quote from: BT on April 08, 2015, 09:56:12 PM

Blargh 5 minutes. ##Unvote ##Vote Dormio[/b (edit: cuts)

The "can't believe I still rolled town" thing isn't a tell. C'mon.

FoS: BT. This rushed post with 5 minutes left makes me think being the one to place the hammer was more important than ensuring the lynch.

Right now, it is not looking certain that I will be lynched d2. I am actually somewhat disappointed, as this means my Townness will not be proven right away.

Quote from: NekoNekoRex on April 10, 2015, 10:51:21 AM

This quote to be exact. I'd expect Scum Dormio to hop the wagon more quickly when it was clear Sky was going to live D1.

"Dormio was Town, you guys. I wasn't here when he was lynched, but I would have totally voted for the currently-living guy than the dead Town guy."

##Vote: NNR

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #319 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:20:58 AM »

You're voting me because I admit I would have voted you over Dormio? That quote is largely hindsight and doesn't even have value, you're stupid if you think I'm voting you because Dormio flipped town

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #320 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:25:00 AM »

You read the game and a crackpot wagon analysis and a vote over some 20/20 hindsight post is the best you could come up with?

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #321 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:28:30 AM »

You constant bemoaning that 'oh woe is me town is gonna lynch me and flip me as poor, innocent town' is starting to piss me off

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #322 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:31:16 AM »

At least bards vote was thought out and good, even if I disagree with it. But come on

Bardiche · « **Reply #323 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:52:15 AM »

NNR is overreacting heavily to this O4rfish vote. Feeling even better about my vote now!

Elieson · « **Reply #324 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:59:54 AM »

Wait so O4rfish thinks that BT, Skypaladin and I are all scum now...entirely because of vote timing and nothing else? You're ignoring the fact that I spent the majority of yesterphase with a strong scumread and vote practically locked on SkyPaladin. If you're gonna case me, do it right pal.

I'm...

Look man, I'd give you a pass if your case made sense but your case is about as sturdy as a $5 iPhone case under my steel workboots. I really don't think you're scum but it's pretty much on gut at this point since it's like you're doing your best to make the worst cases possible

Refa · « **Reply #325 on:** April 11, 2015, 03:02:23 AM »

Finally found my motivation. Let's start with Elieson, seeing as his LD1 content is really telling (WRT his alignment), and I'm going to explain exactly why that is.

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 05:43:07 PM

@Refa I'm saying i would consolidate on dormio just to get a lynch if people are against a skypaladin lynch that strongly because despite reading skypaladin as scum i'm not really overly townreading dormio

Here he mentions that he's perfectly willing to consolidate on Dormio. There is nothing wrong with this reasoning in and of itself (otherwise I'd have called him out on it), but keep it in mind for now.

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 08:22:39 PM

why u gotta be so mitsuasive? i could sheep this #226

##Vote O4rfish

Here he sheeps Mitsuki's case on Oarfish. Again, not scummy, but it's important to keep in mind for later.

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 08:24:08 PM

but his last post ugh i don't see scum posting that ughhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Finally we're getting to the good stuff. He mentions that he can't see scum posting what Oarfish did, but keeps his vote on Oarfish anyways. A contradiction, especially considering he could have easily voted the other wagon that he earlier mentioned he was fine with consolidating on.

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 09:36:33 PM

but what's the scum intent in feigning inactivity as scum, or giving up on d1?

there really isn't any?

mitsssssssssssssssssss

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 09:44:16 PM

mits i'm asking why the latter automatically makes more sense than the former? IMO scum wouldn't jokingly claim scum anticipating that nobody would notice it. scum is typically careful about this kind of thing;

why risk it?

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 09:46:41 PM

yes

it's day 1 and he had like barely any pressure on him

that's like quitting monopoly because you didn't land on Park Place on your first lap around the board

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 09:48:16 PM

If you can explain why mafia would throw in the towel D1 then I'm all ears

And that inconsistency isn't just for one post (I can buy that town would make a mistake like that, especially during deadline), but for like five more. What's more, these votes are basically him asking Mitsuki to give him a reason to scumread Oarfish (this is not what town does) rather than, you know, acting in accordance to his own reads.

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 09:50:14 PM

SB do you think Mits would push something like this as town?

This post feels super scummy as well, but ugh...It's hard to put it into words. It just feels like he's discrediting Mitsuki and her argument subtly despite none of his prior posts giving off the impression that he has any issues with her (actually, they made me think that he was townreading her, so this is quite the turnaround). I also don't like how he farmed out the question to SB instead of giving his own thoughts on the matter first.

Quote from: Elieson on April 08, 2015, 09:51:57 PM

##Unvote

I'm still on the fence now and i've got feels that I can't explain that make me feel like we're lynching what's amounting to lazy town

The empty unvote also bothers me when he could have voted Dormio instead (again, he mentioned he was perfectly fine with consolidating on Dormio before and nothing he posted since then shows that his opinion has changed on that matter in any way). Just seems like apathetic scum who knows that both of the wagons are town (devil's advocate: if Oarfish is scum, then Elieson is most likely town by proxy since scum wouldn't be so apathetic to the lynch of a scumbuddy, but I'm townreading Oarfish anyways so...).

NNR also bothers me as well, but my case is mostly a combination of what I said yesterday (minus the points that I retracted, because they were wrong) and Bard's case today (honestly, I'm not sure why what Oarfish posted is alignment indicative in any way), so I'm not going to bother reiterating it here. Not sure what to make of his replies; I'm sure that he's genuinely frustrated with Oarfish for making what he considers a bad case on him, but it doesn't really help me read him any better.

Besides that, my reads on all of the other active players are null to town. I'm sure that at least one of the scum is hiding amongst the inactives, but ugh fuck reading inactives (please help).

##Vote: Elieson

O4rfish · « **Reply #326 on:** April 11, 2015, 03:06:37 AM »

Quote from: Refa on April 10, 2015, 08:38:06 PM

They're not allowed (RTFR).

Well, I uh ... hm.
I apologize.
I guess I thought it meant "no screenshots of privileged information"

Quote

Why would scum be on the majority wagon while voicing concerns over the wagon (or rather, why is this something that only scum would do)? How would they get towncred for lynching a townie (in the rules, it states that lynches are mandatory).

Placing the hammer in a game in which Town must lynch or be punished is worthy of at least some towncred. This is why it is an ideal situation for Scum to be in.
There are 3 defining characteristics of Scum in this game. They know who is scum and who is town; they are working together; and they are trying to get rid of town.

As I said, going for the no-lynch wasn't apparently something Scum wanted to do: they wanted to lynch Town, and they wanted to appear towny while doing so.
To do this, I assume they got on my wagon but voiced concern over whether I was truly Town or Scum, thus getting me lynched while avoiding backlash.
Then they got Dormio lynched while appearing Town.

In this hypothetical, there were several Town who were starting wagons and making cases, such that Scum did not need to do so.

Cut by: Elieson, are you denying that bussing is a thing that happens, and which can be extremely effective (as I personally learned in VA2)?
My "case" on you involves a little more than vote timing, and I was not casing you as an individual.

Cut by something long, so just posting now.

GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em · « **Reply #327 on:** April 11, 2015, 04:06:24 AM »

Day 2.2 - Votals
BT (2) - Elieson, Zakeri
NekoRex (2) - Bardiche, O4rfish
O4rfish (2) - NekoRex, BT
Elieson (1) - Refa
Not Voting: ActionDan, Dr Rawr, SB, Serela, Sky_Paladin

You have 42 hours remaining in the day. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Quote from: O4rfish on April 11, 2015, 03:06:37 AM

I guess I thought it meant "no screenshots of privileged information"

yeah, it does

SB · « **Reply #328 on:** April 11, 2015, 12:59:47 PM »

Mafia sucks.

BT · « **Reply #329 on:** April 11, 2015, 02:20:14 PM »

Mafia sucks.

Some clarifications before I read: Uh, I did actually not mean to cut the day short when I did, but I got lucky that it was only 5 minutes before deadline. I intentionally butchered the closing [/b] tag thinking it would cancel the bold but either it worked on this forum once (and not anymore) or it worked on another forum. :fail: I even said I was cut (by the L-1), in case you need more proof.

Second thing, about Oarfish's sheet, I went back and forgot he also compiled that big Oarfish/Dormio log among other things, so that's slightly more work put in than I remembered. The case is still completely arbitrary but at least it's consistent, so, yeah, I was too harsh on it. I'll see how I feel about this in a bit but either way I'd want Oarfish to try doing new things too, especially if he knows his case is one big hypothetical.