Theory: Marisa dies in 2015.

[SuperVehicle-001]

Hi, I'm new here. I've lurked for quite some time now, and I decided to make an account now that I have something I really want to share.

So what is it? This. For those who can't see this image, it's basically a screencap of PoFV, where Komachi says that Marisa is 10 years too young to say that she wants to die. PoFV was released in 2005, 10 years ago. So, in short, something may happen this year that may end up with Marisa wishing to die.

I've posted this in Reddit as well (here), and I've received an interesting answer over there, from user "seigachan":

Adding to that, also considering reading this: http://en.touhouwiki.net/wiki/Curiosities_of_Lotus_Asia/Chapter_01 Specifically, the last half of the story.

Quoting from the most important bit: "With computers, F represents 15 and F represents a state of maximum capacity. It is written that when everything becomes F, the highest value is held. I think that it's natural for 15 to have power. Even in ancient times, 15 meant perfection in this country. The same reason the full moon is also known as the fifteenth night."

Considering that between this is the year that the prediction occurs, 2015, as well as the series being right at the doorstep of 15, something big might occur. though this is all speculation.

That's it. I wanted to post this here to get some more discussion going. Who knows, maybe some more foreshadowing and hints will get unearthed. Like the fact that the unknown character from ULiL is apparently called "Hanako", which comes from the urban legend of the girl in the toilet (as I understand it), while Marisa has a Last Word that directly references said urban legend, suggesting a relationship between the two (maybe she'll reach out of her toilet and pull Marisa into some sort of depression or something). It could be just coincidence, of course, but speculating is a fun thing to do, wouldn't you agree?

[Tengukami]

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As far as the theory goes, these are some thoughtful and well-put-together ideas here. It's clear you took your time to build this up. But to back up from the trees to see the forest better, I have strong doubts that ZUN will kill off anyone, let alone his #2 main character. I just cannot see that happening.

Something "big" happening this year, though, yeah. I think that's probably a safe bet!

[Colticide]

Wasn't Marisa working on a potion to make her a full Magician? Or was that just the one time she talked about it?

If she still is working on it then you could speculate that this could be the year her "human" side dies and she become a Youkai/Magician like Alice.

[Tengukami]

I think Marisa going Full Youkai might be in the cards, but what makes me hesitant about that idea is that what makes Marisa Marisa is her humanity; being the "Ordinary Magician" who speaks casually and gruffly, looks out for herself and repeatedly Others youkai in game dialogue. I mean, it could happen; I just think she'd lose a lot of who she is in the process if it did.

[Spotty Len]

It doesn't have to go as far as her becoming a full youkai, but that would be an interesting take for some more character development, especially since we're talking about a main protagonist here.

As for her personality, I don't think it would change much. She's Marisa.

[Colticide]

I think Marisa going Full Youkai might be in the cards, but what makes me hesitant about that idea is that what makes Marisa Marisa is her humanity; being the "Ordinary Magician" who speaks casually and gruffly, looks out for herself and repeatedly Others youkai in game dialogue. I mean, it could happen; I just think she'd lose a lot of who she is in the process if it did.

I find that great about the mystery about why she would. If you ever played Eastern Starlight Romance it deals with immortality as an issue and really brings out a what if kind of feel for the fan game. While her reasons are not known, her being a youkai and Reimu's job is to hunt youkai, the interactions between the two would be interesting.

[Maple]

I do think that ZUN wants to make something interesting with the plot in 2015, but how could he pull it off?

My utopian itinerary: ULiL full version (ignoring obligatory day 1 patch) released either during Reitasai or summer comiket. Th 14.7 released in the next event (summer comiket or winter comiket, respectively), this is assuming that as a gaiden game it doesn't require so much work compared to a "full" integer game. Th 15 demo released in the next event. For your wishful thinking all the 3 games released in the same year.

Now, ZUN is just a man with his own life and makes games for himself, not to please the fanbase. We can only hope.

He might just write a new manga/light novel and then give to some unfortunate soul the task of illustrating some dozen pages. Absolutely evil   

[aUsernameIsFineToo]

To me, Marisa (at least in the shooters) represents the classic "forward-focused max-power type". Therefore, I find it hard to believe that ZUN would remove her from the game. Her shot type is such a staple in games of the genre that he'd probably have to think of a replacement character in the event that she actually does leave, and at that point I think it would either be an existing character or a new one altogether. But knowing ZUN for who he is, a grand surprise is never out of the question. Heck, maybe Rin Satsuki will be introduced and replace her.

[Helepolis]

In Gensoukyo it is also about the thrill and beauty of spell card battles, Marisa has been writing her Grimmoire about those so killing her off would be pretty bad idea as she is the only one researching these spell cards.

Doubting she will reach full fledged Youkai status either anywhere soon. ZUN wants an ordinary human and her face being on every shooting game so far isn't going to change I guess.

[Raikaria]

Firstly, Komachi says that Marisa is ten years too young to be talking about wanting to die. Not ten years too young to die. You're never too young to die. A Shinigami of all people should know this. [Komachi also knows when Marisa is supposed to die, as do all Shinigami, so the fact she specified 'talking' means a lot]

Secondly, we're assuming timeflow in Gensokyo is the same as the timeflow here. Which is a pretty big assumption considering none of the human characters seem to have aged that much. [I won't say Reimu/Marisa haven't aged at all; they do look older in TH14 than TH6 even in ZUNArt; and although it's not a main series game it's still an official game so; they look at least 16 now in HM, but certainly no older than 20.]

It's a pretty big stretch to say therefor that Marisa will die in Touhou 15. Unless you are saying she was 6~10 in PoFV, and by that logic of release dates Marisa's age would be negative in SoEW.

Well, besides players Pichunning, that is. In that sense Marisa is going to die in every Touhou game as long as she is a player character.

I mean; HrtP was released in 1997. If we assume Gensokyo's timeline is equivilent to that of this real world's; Reimu would have to be at least 18 now. If she was a newborn in HrtP. Which she isn't.

 She's pretty clearly by her design in that game, and most following, at least 10, more likely in her teens already. And yet her design in Hopeless Masquerade pretty clearly puts her in the late teens [Going by her sprite]. Reimu isn't 28; so even if Komachi was saying Marisa would die in 10 years, 10 years hasn't passed in Gensokyo, not even close. It's unlikly more than10 years has even passed in the entirety of Touhou canon, using Reimu's apparent age as a guide. We know a few years have passed, simply from the seasons the games are set in, but not 10 years since PofV.

Even if you disregard PC-98 canon; EoSD was released in 2002; and Reimu's design back then dosen't look 13 years [Well; 12; since TH15 isn't out] younger than it does now. She looks at most 4 or 5 older.
[EoSD]

[DDC]

[Agent of the BSoD]

Yeah, that's also the problem I have with this. Who's to say that the time ZUN releases the games follows how long it takes events to happen in Gensokyo in relation to the real world? I would expect the games to be much closer together in regards to time, so maybe a few years have passed at most, and not 10 years since PoFV. This is especially true if you include the large gap between MS and EoSD since ZUN was learning to program on a different OS. This 10 years until Marisa starts thinking of death could happen a very long time from now, probably not in 2015.

[Spotty Len]

Even if you disregard PC-98 canon; EoSD was released in 2002; and Reimu's design back then dosen't look 13 years [Well; 12; since TH15 isn't out] younger than it does now. She looks at most 4 or 5 older.

In a world where we have hundreds of years old magic beings all over the place, I don't know if apparent age, even for human characters, can be a reliable information.

[Romantique Tp]

This is especially true if you include the large gap between MS and EoSD since ZUN was learning to program on a different OS.

The gap between MS and EoSD had very little to do with the switch to Windows. Touhou "ended" with MS, but ZUN decided to start making Touhou games again almost 3 years later. The development of EoSD started sometime before September/October of 2001, while he was still using a SC-88Pro for music.

[TresserT]

If EoSD is anything to go by (and it may not be, early installment weirdness, you know (TV tropes warning)) MS occured shortly before that game, so PC-98 was definitely not happening in real time.

However, after EoSD touhou definitely follows the same calender as the real world, as shown in CoLA. Accepting this, the Bunbunmaru Newspaper/Kakashi Thought Report from BAiJR and SoPM depict events up through winter 2011. In other words, since EoSD touhou has been going along in roughly real time.

Reimu just looks like a little girl because that's what sells ZUN's style.
http://en.touhouwiki.net/wiki/Gensokyo_Timeline

[Colticide]

Actually I wonder about the time in relation to the real world for the games... I bring this up because PCB is suppose to be around spring, but the game was released during December, the beginning of winter. It might just be that game but this always confused me.

Plus Akyuu doesn't have very long left to live as well. T-T

[SuperVehicle-001]

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Ah, my thread has been approved! Thanks for the tips and the warm welcome!

To everyone that's saying that Marisa dying is improbable: Yeah, I know, it's crazy, ain't it? But let's not forget that we all thought that Nitori was a sweet, if somewhat shy, girl, and that Momiji and Aya were besties, and that Kaguya and Mokou were eternal bitter enemies that fought all the damn time, and that Lily White and Lily Black were different people, and that Patchy's library was called "Voil?", and probably some other stuff I'm forgetting. ZUN has a specific vision of how his world works, of how his world is, of why stuff happens in his world. If he decides that Marisa gets the axe, then it's off with her head, no matter how much she's literally the icon of Touhou.

And, saying this as someone who likes Marisa, it's not like she's even that important in-universe. Reimu is the maiden upon which the Great Hakurei Barrier rests. By comparison, Marisa is just some nobody that lives in the forest and sometimes goes outside to pick fights before Reimu does it. If Reimu were to die, it may spell the ending of Gensokyo as we know it, but if Marisa were to die, then that sucks, one more empty house in the middle of the forest.

To those that said and/or want to say that Komachi was talking about saying she wanted to die: Please remember that Marisa has a super-powerful super-weapon right in her pockets. If she wanted to die, she'd be able to kill herself without putting much effort into it. And I doubt that Komachi would have mentioned it at all if it was going to be a "damn, i have to walk to alice's house? man i wish i were dead!" kind of thing.

And to those that said "Oh, but Gensokyo time might not run in the same way ours do!": I have this thing backing me up on that. Gensokyo/Real world times are not in exact parallel (PoFV as a game was released several months after PoFV as an incident was said to occur in-universe), but they are close enough, I feel.

All of that aside, I do agree with the fact that I'm maybe looking too deep into this, and that Marisa may not die. Still, all signs point at 15 being an important number, and look at that, we're in 2015, almost about to hit the 15th installment. I have no doubt in my mind that something important is going to happen soon.

[Agent of the BSoD]

It would definitely be really cool if ZUN were to do something interesting for this year, but I'm not going to hold out for it. If it happens, that's really awesome. If not, oh well.

The gap between MS and EoSD had very little to do with the switch to Windows. Touhou "ended" with MS, but ZUN decided to start making Touhou games again almost 3 years later. The development of EoSD started sometime before September/October of 2001, while he was still using a SC-88Pro for music.

Ah, ok. Thanks for that clarification.

[Maple]

Re: aging.

From my perspective, doesn't everyone in the cast, both old and new characters, look older? ZUN has slowly (slooooowly) improved his art over the time. Welcome to the art class (for more or less any art style): characters with curves* ,soft lines, and clear colors are considered "cuter"; long, straight lines, darker colors are "more cool". Proportions: head-to-height ratio, the more heads can enter in somebody's height, the younger s/he looks (real life babies have ~4 heads; adults 7-8 heads); head-to-shoulders, more heads are "tougher" (applies more to men with muscles); the half of the body is around the navel in RL babies, around the thighs in adults.

*Note: not referring to booty and bewbs.

Taking drawings aside, isn't common in fiction that beings capable of using magic live longer/age more slowly that ordinary, puny muggles?

[Mеа]

Well they look the oldest in UFO and then go back to looking younger in TD and DDC, so the art, at least, is probably a poor scale to weigh with. Interesting ideas though.
If the phantasmagoria, no phantasmagoria 3 year trend continues, then it could make sense. 2015, or just 15, which is ichigo, which is strawberry. Meaning we get a phantasmagoria with Yumemi this year. Considering the recent focus on the outside world, I wouldn't be too surprised.

[Suspicious person]

Oooooooooh, this is quite an impressive theory.
But! As much as it makes sense, it's also possible that things may not go this way. I believe there was a rumour about a character reset around the time before MoF was released, but it didn't occur, even if it made a lot of sense (someone confirm or prove this wrong). It's possible and might be interesting to see where things'll go if ZUN somehow kill off Marisa but quite frankly I don't see this happening, because:

1- That would be an earthquake-like change in the setup! I don't think ZUN'll trade one of his character, even if she is genuinely irrelevant to gensokyo in-universe, for drama's sake. The way the storiES go are usually "Stuff happens, solving happens, go back to business as usual happens + something new in gensokyo" and reflect daily life in Gensokyo : it's hard to imagine how drama (cuz death=drama. ALWAYS) would fit in Touhou official works.

2- Marisa'll be needed for mechanism's sake! Touhou 15 is not in the works yet, but we can agree that it'll be a shmup game, just like the otheres main game are:

To me, Marisa (at least in the shooters) represents the classic "forward-focused max-power type". Therefore, I find it hard to believe that ZUN would remove her from the game. Her shot type is such a staple in games of the genre that he'd probably have to think of a replacement character in the event that she actually does leave, and at that point I think it would either be an existing character or a new one altogether. But knowing ZUN for who he is, a grand surprise is never out of the question. Heck, maybe Rin Satsuki will be introduced and replace her.

I guess this makes sense, but bringing a Marisa-like character out of the blue is unlikely

3- (This reason is more like an opinion) The games use spell cards rules. So, if he wanted to kill off a major character, it should be in a brand new literary work or something like that... and no such thing has yet been announced

4- Japanese fans'll burn his house It'll be a huge fan disservice if that's what he gives for Touhou's 20th anniversary

5- Komachi's line leave a wide margin for interpretation, I guess? It's not like Komachi expressly said that Marisa'll die ten years later

How things'll end up comes down to what ZUN's gonna do and since there's already ULiL in the works, I'm expecting something along the lines of Touhou 14.8 (or 14.7?) to come next and, being busy dealing with the scenarios for Ibarakasen, Suzunaan, real life issues, the PS4 thingy and raising ZUNior, I do not quite believe ZUN might have the time to cook a big story that'll cause the death of such an iconic character.

Then again, we are only doing speculations. We are only in January 2015 so, who knows how things'll turn out? In any case, I hope your prophecy won't happen cuz I like Marisa (no offense  ).


btw, about the way time flow, If PoFV, who came out at 2005 is more or less a consequence of WWII, 60 years earlier, then I guess Gensokyo's time flow the same way ours do.

[CyberAngel]

I guess this makes sense, but bringing a Marisa-like character out of the blue is unlikely

...Mima. That would be such a bittersweet present to those who ask for her return. "Be careful what you wish for" indeed.

In all seriousness, I don't think ZUN ever plans that far. Instead, that phrase sounds like what anime martial artists say, you know, "you're ten years too early to challenge me", stuff like that.

[N-Forza]

Forgive the bump but I saw a Japanese tweet reference this thread (which would explain the high number of visitors currently viewing it) and bring up another interesting fact: Both games were (or will be) released exactly ten years apart to the date: August 14th.

Firstly, Komachi says that Marisa is ten years too young to be talking about wanting to die. Not ten years too young to die.

5- Komachi's line leave a wide margin for interpretation, I guess? It's not like Komachi expressly said that Marisa'll die ten years later

Actually, I double-checked this and the English translation added in the part about "talking." (This is why you have to be careful about phrasing!) In Japanese, she straight up declares it's ten years too early for her to die. Granted the "X years too early" phrase is a common euphemism, but who knows?

[Tengukami]

Shocking twist for Touhou 15 confirmed: Marisa arrives on the Moon and discovers, too late, that she is deathly allergic to peaches.

RIP Ordinary Magician ;_;

[Helepolis]

Tweet highlighted this thread? Ooooh, fancy.

Game is released 10 years apart? That is if ZUN manages to finish LoLK for Summer Ket. Also her death could be symbolic as losing her human form or lifestyle and becoming that full fledged magician / youkai? Reimu so called "exterminated" all Youkai until now. Unless ZUN suddenly wants to shock the entire fandom by sudden plot twist then we're all royally screwed.

Also how is timeline treated in Touhou anyway? Is 1 year between the games 1 year of "peace" in Gensoukyo?

[Python]

Well, Komachi does say she is too young to say she wants to be dead. I'd understand this as "You must be XY or older in order to ride the boat across the Sanzu and die", which means she wouldn't necessarily have to die in ten years from then.

[PK]

While I doubt ZUN would ever remove the 2nd main character, it's not impossible that she dies and simply becomes a ghost while still being able to do whatever she does now (although she would stop being the "normal" human magician). This way you show that characters can die, but without all the drama and crying people (assuming anyone is gonna cry for her, i doubt any of the youkai would).
Also, with all the weird powers youkai have, im sure at least one of them can resurrect people :V

Also how is timeline treated in Touhou anyway? Is 1 year between the games 1 year of "peace" in Gensoukyo?

I'm sure the timeline has the same flow as our own. We have Akyuu that recently reminded us how she has more or less 10 years left. Since it refers to the fact that her reincarnations usually don't live past 30 years old, it means she is effectively 20 y/o now (born on 1994). She also looks older than when she appeared the 1st time.

[N-Forza]

Well, Komachi does say she is too young to say she wants to be dead. I'd understand this as "You must be XY or older in order to ride the boat across the Sanzu and die", which means she wouldn't necessarily have to die in ten years from then.

Like I said, it doesn't mention anything about "saying" in the original Japanese. And regardless, Marisa never said she wanted to die at all in the dialog. That was added in by the translation and changes the nuance a fair amount, since if the Japanese was meant to be taken literally, it implies that Komachi at least knows when people are going to die. Granted, it's probably innocuous enough, but a hint like that could've been sitting under our noses the whole time and no one would've noticed.

[Suspicious person]

Welp. I guess the answer'll come in one month, with the full release. I'll be aiming for a Marisa good ending and see for myself then. If I can. Still doubtful about the whole Marisa death thingy though, what's with the death-cheating shady new drug and all ; and I can't see her dying in her own good ending. Assuming that she is expected to die in LoLK or in a following work, of course.

[SuperVehicle-001]

Hey, would you look at that, my thread is alive again. So apparently, the wiki's translation was wrong and Komachi isn't talking about Marisa "being ten years too early to say she wants to die" but actually about Marisa "being ten years too early to die" just straight out. This reminds me, wasn't it already confirmed that Komachi had the ability to know when people die? I also remember something about it being non-canon for some reason. I'm trying to find the info on the wiki but I can't find it.

Either way, I do agree with the notions that her "death" may simply be that she stops being a human once and for all, and moves permanently to the youkai side. Well, maybe "simply" isn't the right word to use, because I can't see this NOT having a big impact on how the story goes, not to mention the fandom.

Man, it must suck to be Reimu in the future. Not only we have Marisa about to undergo SOMETHING, whether death or youkaidom, but there's still the whole matter with Kosuzu.

It's a bold strategy, ZUN, let's see if it pays off.

[TresserT]

If you look at the phrase in context; Komachi says "The only people who come to Muenzuka are those who want to die [...] You're ten years too early to die."

I feel like Komachi's just saying "You shouldn't be here, you're too young to be contemplating death". I don't think there was any sort of hidden message behind it.

Besides, if Seihou is canon we know Marisa sticks around in some form or another.