Urist Fortress Mafia - Night 3

[Cheez8]

...Huh, that's true. I'm normally not fond of voting for people because of inactivity, but that post you quoted makes it seem like he wasn't even reading the game.

It'd sure be convenient if he's scum too, because that trap thing is the only claim I had hoped was a lie not because of contradictions, but because I couldn't make heads or tails of how it would or wouldn't fit in with rest of the night actions.

In fact, ##Vote: Zakeri before I can convince myself otherwise. At least until he can prove he's awake and worth trusting.

[SB]

Pretty much in agreement on Dorian's point there, although I would say CF7 is in a similar situation wrt Dormio yesterday.

serela please tell me your claim won't confuse me even more when I get up

[Dorian White]

Gut, mostly. It felt like you went through all his posts with the idea of painting him as scum instead of evaluating them with a neutral mindset and coming to the conclusion naturally.

Let me say it like that, that guy has currently two town reads (O4rfishs and you) and the rest are either scum reads he want's to lynch or null reads where he's also willing to lynch them on policy. So, yes I have indeed a hard time to see that naturally.

...
##Unvote
##Vote: Zakeri
...

Why didn't I think of voting myself? maybe because it's 1AM and I'm not sober.^^;;

##Vote: Zakeri

[Raikaria]

As a heads up Zakeri isn't that far from me considering replacement for him himself. I was likly going to prod him tomorrow morning.

Votecount of the Steel Pike

Dorian (1):  Zakeri
Darkninjaabc (3): Shadoweh;  CF7; CF7
CF7 (2): SB; Darkninjaabc
Shadoweh (1): O4rfish
Zakeri (3): Conq; Cheez8; Dorian

Not Voting (1): Serela

With 11 votes in play it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is here:
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20140117T0953&p0=136&msg=End+of+Day+2

[Shadoweh]

I'm just posting to confirm that I've read over all the actions and I'm still not sure what the hell is going on. I at least got back confirmation that Conq's BP would have stopped me from dying, since he wouldn't die when he was killed. That still doesn't explain.. literally everything else?

There are literally three actions on me that can't have happened, I was tracked to somewhere I wasn't going, blocked when I was seen somewhere else, and trapped when it would have killed either the person who redirected me or the roleblock. I'm just going to throw up my hands and wait for Serela to claim Kyuubi.

[Serela]

I'm back from work everyone!

Guess what my role is?

I'll give you a hint. It's one-shot randomizes the targets of everyone's night actions.

Actually that's not exactly a hint, but yes, watching this has been utter glory I have no regrets

[Serela]

...yeah, no, I'm vanilla town. (This is my actual serious claim, I'm VT.)

:C

[WHMZakeri]

So, I've looked over things, and in short Shadoweh claims to have protected Conqueror long after we've confirmed that Conqueror wasn't actually protected?
And that Cheez8 jailkept Shadoweh, except Oarfish proved that Shadoweh was not roleblocked? (Or at the very least that the roleblock didn't go through?)
A bus Driver usually targets the people for switching, so if Shadoweh is telling the turth then that means Darkie and Conqueror were targeted by it, not Shadoweh, so I wouldn't have hit the busser.
Cop going before Tracker makes sense, but Vig doesn't which means I ended up killing Dan despite trying to do the opposite of that.

The thing that makes the least amount of sense is Cheez8's jailkeep on Shadoweh because my Trap and Oarfish's Track both prove that that didn't happen at all.
##Unvote
##Vote: Cheez8

I mean that he lurks is nothing new but he never struck me as the kind of guy who would hold back vital information if he's town and to know the origin of the third NK is a vital information. His one-shot role had already fulfilled it's purpose so why still keeping it a secret?

I wasn't keeping it a secret, the idea of claiming didn't occur until after I left for bed last night. Also my claim didn't really add anything until massclaim happened, everybody had already figured out there were four possible NKs on night one. Besides, "I shot somebody but I don't know who" doesn't really feel like a good way of confirming my status as functionally vanilla town.

[WHMZakeri]

Like, the only way Cheez8 can be town is if Shadoweh somehow counter-roleblocks roleblockers but does nothing against investigation roles.

[Serela]

I don't know if voting people based entirely off the night shenanigans is reliable considering almost none of the night action results make sense >_>;

[Cheez8]

That, or the trap thing didn't actually happen.

As much as I'd like to entertain role nonsense that's so involved you'd have to know this game's order of operations to figure it out, why don't you try to explain why your posts don't make you scum? There are already a couple very good points that you're ignoring.

Cut by someone who has the right idea. Seriously.

[WHMZakeri]

Honestly, this game is hard enough to read as is, anyways.

I can't tell what I missed but I'll look.

would also want clarification on what this meant because i have no idea how your original reasoning could have intensified given nnr posted literally nothing.

NNR posting literally nothing was what intensified it. That's also why I didn't feel the need to expand or restate it.

[Cheez8]

Your original reasoning had nothing to do with NNR not saying things though. It had to do with what SB said about what little NNR did say.

Also, I don't think you're exactly in a position to use that argument yourself. You're not doing that good a job at convincing me here.

[Cheez8]

Oh right, there's also...

I wasn't keeping it a secret, the idea of claiming didn't occur until after I left for bed last night. Also my claim didn't really add anything until massclaim happened, everybody had already figured out there were four possible NKs on night one. Besides, "I shot somebody but I don't know who" doesn't really feel like a good way of confirming my status as functionally vanilla town.

When you compare what we would have learned with what you would be risking, it doesn't make too much sense to hide it. At the very least, once Oarfish brought up tracking Shadoweh, shouldn't you have figured the possibility of figuring out what the trap actually accomplished (or letting us know where the third kill came from) was more important than concealing your functional vanilla townie status? It's not like you would have had much of a reason to keep your role under wraps anymore.

[DNAbc]

Guys, I don't like dwelling on possibilities, lets just make this clear cut.
From top to bottom are townest to scumminest ppl
1.Dark-doctor
2.Conq-bpv
3.Oarfish-tracker
4.SB-joat
5.Sahdoweh-bodyguard
6.Cheez-jailkeep
7.Serela-vanilla
8.Dorian-vanilla
9.CF7-Doublevoter
10.Zak-Bombmaker

Zak is SK because he feesed up kill responsibility while telling us his trap target being shadoweh. His claim however is impossible due to that his trap (sourced from Zak himself) has highest priority, meaning it even overrides the next fastest priority roles (AKA Jailkeep and roleblocker). But Cheez, despite lacking in any form of protection and was sure to be the first who hit Zak didn't die.
Zak claim is false.

CF7 claims to be a doublevoter, which can be either alignment. However, D1 dormio also claimed a similar role. But CF7 never voiced his inquiry nor voted for dormio. (Or he did but didn't make it an intergral part of his case when it should be)
Instead, he insisted on pushing and voting the claimed doc, going so far as to even pop his doublevote on the said doc.


his mentality and track record contradicts directly with that of a townie, so he's scum


More later brb/

[Serela]

But Cheez, despite lacking in any form of protection and was sure to be the first who hit Zak didn't die.
Zak claim is false.

Don't know where you think you're getting these kinds of information?

ActionDan probably targetted Shadoweh and died.

Or there was even more shenanigans. Because Cheez clearly did not manage to Jail Shadoweh in the first place, so it's silly you're even assuming Cheez ACTUALLY hit Shadoweh. It's difficult to assume anything off of n1's actions because half of them didn't seem to do what they were supposed to, and we have no idea what the hell was going on. Don't frame people off these things we don't understand. The non-fessing-up on trapping Shadoweh and probably killing someone because of it is legit.

Assuming Shadoweh is maf with a high-priority kill who went after Conq is an interesting idea, but not reliable enough to bank on, etc

I'd probably be voting CF7 if I was voting (been kind of busy) but Zakeri over the non-claiminess wouldn't be half bad either? (Not as though he's particularly townie apart from it) Not really interested in other lynch options for today. The cheez wagon is, again, based on assuming we actually can rely on anything that supposedly happened last night.

[Serela]

wait why aren't I voting

##Vote CF7

sheeping SB's case because he made it before I did

[O4rfish]

Oh my beard, so much madness. Welcome to Dorf Fort Mafia, hope you like miasma!

[O4rfish]

Cheez8 has to be lying. Jailer has higher priority over cop, which means he would have been killed by Zak.
Zak is probably SK, since his kill has first activation meaning third-party.

I'd prefer to vote Cheez8 over CF7, but either one has a good case for scumminess. Anyways, with all this craziness I can't strongly disbelieve Shadoweh anymore.
##Unvote

[Serela]

Cheez8 has to be lying. Jailer has higher priority over cop, which means he would have been killed by Zak.
Zak is probably SK, since his kill has first activation meaning third-party.

"Cheez8 must be lying, because Zak is not town and lied about his role that he's also telling the truth about."

You start assuming things, but the thing is, the information you're using... the conclusion reached means that the information is very untrustable. The entire thing falls apart.

People need to stop rolegaming because we don't have a solid base to start rolegaming things off of.

[DNAbc]

Argh, you guys are not utilizing the massclaim goodness.

Let's look at why cheez has to be scum.
In N1, Oarfish saw shadoweh visiting conq. While Cheez should've jailed shadoweh already. So there's a contradiction, and what follows is that things did not go all as they intended.

So basically, in order for the above scenario to happen as Shadoweh being a bodyguard and Cheez being an actual jailkeep. Scum is required to roleblock me. A second roleblock on cheez and the busdrive on shadoweh. But that would leave no room for them to use the factional kill which is again contradictory to the flips, not to mention 2 roleblocks and 1 busdrive are outright impossible anyway.

As we had two deaths overnight it is certain scum killed paladin, whether they already used a roleblock on paladin is unclear. But let's assume that they haven't for the sake of assumtion and giving them the credit of doubt. Moreover, whether scum roleblock goes faster than town jailkeep is also unclear, but's let's just also give cheez the credit of doubt.

But then there leaves me as the odd thumb out, because I have definitely protected conqueror, and I claimed well before anyone did and demonstrated much lack of care in claiming my protection targets. And simply concluding from sheer possibility, my claim and actions which were claimed before anyone else did have to be true.

Yet however! Even if the highly unlikely scenario DID happen. And that assuming everything had happened as they theorized, we would have a town roster like this;
1. doc -DNA
2 tracker-oarfish
3. bulletproof-conq
4. joat- SB
5. jailer- cheez
6. bodyguard-shadoweh
-7.vanilla-serela
8. vanilla-dorian
As you can see from this list, which have already excluded CF7 and Zak for they are confirmed. Is the entireity of players already. So by exclusion, either one or both of the conlicted PRs have to be lying.

I, personally, am more willing to see Cheez as the liar, because while we can have 4 maximum nightkills, they are all persumably going to happen on night 1 and is going to lead to a massclaim like what's happening currently. The doc, jailer and joat can completely mess with scum and isolate the sk. This is a worst possible scenario which is an intergral concern in modding philosophy, so a Jailer is impossible.
Now, let's exclude Cheez from the town roster either, we have a list like this.
1.doc
2.bpv
3.joat
4.tracker
5.bodyguard
6.vt
7.vt
And giving them the credit of doubt and assume they are town whatever. We just have to sort out nightactions.

cut by Serela
You are hilarious, I pointed my logic out in my walls, and I repeated it many, many times. This post is probably the most concise version of my logic, typed up by yours truly for teaching Serela how to count 1 2 3. Please read warmly while asking me questions.

[DNAbc]

Whoops sorry I thought serela was directing that attack to me like everyone and I responded in reflex almost instaneously. :V

Yeah I admit the logic in oarfish's post is wrong, which is why I am clearing things up personally in the above wall. Sorry Serely

[Serela]

er, if that was too vague; without getting into the Cheez8 part (basically, we can't even assume cheez8 even hit Shadoweh at all last night, or that Zakeri's trap hit Shadoweh either) just on Zakeri, you're assuming he's third party based on what he claimed.

But, if Zak is third party, there's no reason to believe the role he claimed is actually his killing method. (the one shot part at the very least would have to be a lie; but the entire thing very well could be.)

Too many of the actions from last night very obviously didn't work as we've been told, so we just can't trust that any of them did as said. We don't know the setup.

Cut by Darkie. Skimmed. Don't care. Night actions are too much of a mess, almost anyone could be lying and there's multiple ways the scumteam could have acted to screw things up, and there very well may be an unconventional role screwing it all up.

Gaming. Setups. Is. Risky.

Gaming the setup when you only have one night of actions and they don't make the slightest bit of sense sends the risk into "why the fuck are you even trying" territory.

If anything that's been assumed is wrong, which is highly likely, you pretty much just took a blind shot in the dark with the lynch.

Let's, you know, lynch people the standard way. CF7 and Zakeri have done some scummy shit, let's lynch them. Game the setup later when there's more flips for confirmed roles and more sets of night action data to look at.

[Serela]

MotK has a lot lot lot of games where town tried to game the setup and it blew up in their faces, let's not add another.

[DNAbc]

Oh wait I forgot something important.
 
If Cheez is speaking the truth, then....
Basically shadoweh is seen protecting conq but it failed, so not only he only busdriven, he would also need to have roleblocked or scum had a strongwilled killer. Else conq's bpv wouldn't have shattered

I would prefer to just pass divine judgement and end this notion for being silly already, but let's assume for the sake of roleshens anyway and go all the way fuck.

Choose third scum ability, roleblock or strongwill? Strongwill is more likely, and it should be on CF7 considering he has proven hes a doublevoter and probably don't have much influence in night actions himself, so the mod gave him a strongwill to toy with. Besides, if we also give the third scum roleblock it would be all three scums can roleblock AND busdrive while killing. which is lolnope.

This is the second piece of proof to exclusion theory pointing to cheez being scum. On top of the first proof that is balance issues concerning jailer and doctor.

[Serela]

If I wanted to try and make a not-town off just these messed up night actions I guess I'd probably say Zak/Shadoweh/Cheez, with one of them being third party. But yeah. I don't trust conclusions from these night actions.

Both a doctor/jailor existing at once is a legitimate point of suspicion against Cheez, especially when considering how end of D1 went down with a claiming doc, but with 3 attempted kills last night and scum likely having at least 2 out of roleblocker/busdriver/immunizedkillingthingamajigger it might actually be real. I'unno. Would rather wait somewhat on lynching Cheez purely off of it.

[DNAbc]

SHUT UP AND STOP ROLESHENS

wait what.
I was giving scum every credit of doubt, serela.

unlike you who would like to dwell endlessly on paradoxes and assume everyone isn't lying, I took the realistic approach and factored in that ''something has to do what scum did'', instead of ''let's just try to fit in everything town did with claims''. Because the former is what town does, and the latter is a scum tatic to sort of make sense with their role.

Since we agree on zak and cf7 being sk and scum respectively whatever I won't dwell on that.

But the claims and nightactions by cheez and shadoweh are literally impossible to happen together. Because it would still be false even if we have the assumptions of scum can kill while using ability and that cheez jailkeep go faster than scum roleblock which makes scum pathetically weak. There is still the contradiction scum has 3 roleblocks, 1 busdrive and has to be strong willed.

Factoring out cheez because of his impossible role and the aforementioned contradiction would leave us with 2 roleblocks, 1 busdrive and strongwill modified scum. Which is at least POSSIBLE.

So tldr I don't understand your justification in ignoring roleshens, its delicious

[Conqueror]

MotK has a lot lot lot of games where town tried to game the setup and it blew up in their faces, let's not add another.

Hoiy shit Serela is that really you? 

Needless to say though that I agree since none of this role stuff is making sense. There's not enough confirmed information.

[DNAbc]

Dude, my roleshens are all made under the assumption most benefitial to scum and put every unconfirmed factor in their favour, but even so its still impossible.

Although it is going to be messy but I beg of you guys to try and follow roleshens, its like eating crabs, once you get past the shell you reach the delicious heavenly glory nobody else would be able to get

[DNAbc]

With how Serela is acting now basically I now have a reason to somewhat trust shadoweh more with his bodyguard claim.

because holy shit serela making common sense.
By any degree, cf7/cheez/ dorian or serela being scumteam is confirmed
and Zak fessing up for responsibility in the kill also just points to him being sk because scum most certainly won't do that.