Going to respond to this real quick while I'm here.
...But I can kinda see Raitaki scrambling to get around the game in this situation, mostly because I'm having lots of difficulties following everything right now myself even though I got a big chunk of reading work done during the night phase. His Affinity read sounds like original and reasonable suspicion even though I personally still think Affinity is probably town.
What was original and reasonable about the Affinity suspicion?
I don't know. I haven't finished reading his latest post but it just doesn't make sense in my head that scum getting wagoned so early in the day would stick to their case on somebody who pretty much everybody else agrees is probably town. I'm pretty inclined to think Raitaki is town as well.
What do you mean by that? Before Raitaki posted his Shadoweh case (can't look back to check right now) there were still a few people who hadn't posted and the Shadoweh wagon was still fully a possibility if they thought Shadoweh was suspicious. Add to this that Raitaki was pushing Shadoweh all day yesterday and the fact that Shadoweh had weird reactions with Serela yesterday and Shadoweh's still a reasonable case to push, if only because it gives a lot for Raitaki to talk about. At the time he made the case, he wasn't even a major wagon. Your premise is flawed.
His "DAN IS TOO EASY" point that somebody gave him flak for reads okay to me because it's true. Actually I think that's a solid towntell on him now, because it would be really really stupid for scum!Raitaki to wave off a possible easy mislynch at this point. If Conq is town then scum is just completely surrounded by obvtowns which means Raitaki!Scum would HAVE to resort to easy targets to wagon on, people are actively PoE'ing scum all over the thread, and instead of pursuing the lynchable targets Raitaki stubbornly sticks to his ED1 case on Shadoweh who is not getting lynched today whatsoever.
It's not true, and I want you to explain why you think so given that Dan pushed the Serela lynch yesterday and has actually done a decent amount of stuff even if he's a massive lurkhead. Raitaki never waved off the mislynch either; the way he dismissed it as an easy lurker mislynch leaves him room to consolidate on the wagon while distancing him from a potential townflip.
Note that Raitaki is also adding cases on other people to leave himself open to a wagon on them; it's not like he's only posting on Shadoweh. And what would he do anyway as scum, backtrack on the Shadoweh suspicion just because other people told him to?
There's also how everybody has posted so far in D2 and nobody has even given a thought to Raitaki being town yet iirc, if Raitaki were scum this would mean that their last buddy would be bussing him and that's a horrible scum strategy after a D1 scum lynch. Most of what I just said is circunstancial evidence and it gets kinda WIFOM-y at points, but even so his stubborn grip on the Shadoweh vote even with the big wagon on him makes me think that he either sucks really hard at being scum or he's town, and like somebody said at some point in some game some time ago I prefer to believe scum are not batshit incompetent.
Scum is getting stomped this game, I think the last buddy is going to want to bus because Raitaki is going down today. I'll talk more about this later.
Vhaltz, have you read any of my Raitaki case or did you just ignore it for the theory that I'm scumbuddies with Dormio? I'll read and respond to your Dormio thing later.
Also Shadoweh how is that a logical conclusion at all. One was a mystery vote, the other was a secret lowering of the lynch threshold; scum wouldn't want to draw attention to that because they want the accidental hammer (if that was indeed an actual mechanic and not just a mod mistake)
