@haoreos:
Let me clarify everything, starting from what Suika said.
You used the example of the vase, but that doesn't make sense in Suika's dialogue, let me use some examples:
If you drop the vase, it would be easier to break it.
I am saying this does not make any sense. If you drop the vase, it either breaks or not, it does not make it easier to break it. The breaking itself is the action, however, when you drop a vase, you either break it or not, it doesn't make it easier to break. Except in the case of the vase being hard, and when you drop it, you know that it will not break and thus it becomes easier to break as force has been applied to it.
Let's take another example:
This vase is made of steel. If I turn this vase into glass, it would be easier to break.
What I am trying to say is the action of breaking is never done on the vase, what you are looking for is the ease of that action. Like, if I find a hammer, it would be easier for me to break the vase. However, it does not make sense to say if I drop this vase, it becomes easier to break. At least logically speaking, I don't see how that makes sense.
(As an aside, the whole fragments falling to earth thing could conceivably be the visual result of shattering the heavens and thus disrupting the reflection, so that's not an absolute contradiction.)
When you refract the light of the atmosphere, it will not give you what Aya observes. You might see the moon look weird as if you are looking it in the water. But it will not shatter and disappear. You will also not see the moon explode and fragments falling to the earth.
I'm operating under the assumption that the in-universe physical laws reflect reality until shown otherwise.
I'm also reasonably sure that things burning is a chemical reaction that can't be reversed simply through gathering or diffusing, so her ability wouldn't really help in that regard. Imagine trying to recreate a book that was burnt to ashes by gathering up the ashes; even if you could get every part to fit perfectly, which is already kinda far fetched, you wouldn't be able to just turn it back into paper.
Laws reflecting reality in universe does not matter, because there is no observation made from the outside world. You don't know what effects Suika's stunt did to the outside world, because there is no perspective on that. The only perspective you see is from Aya's perspective and thus that is the only one you could use. Which is what Aya observed.
So, you could argue that yes, there is a tidle wave which happened shortly after Suika's stunt, or not, but that delves into science which I don't know what the consequences are having gravity suddenly shift like that and then shift back. But the point is, none of that matters, because these observations are not told to us. What could have happened, what did happened do not apply, because none of those events are observed. The only events that are observed are from Aya and from inside Gensokyo.
We also know what else is observed, the fragments falling from the sky to the earth and there was an explosion. Now, the explanation from Aya's observation is that Suika blew up the moon and then regathered it. How she did it, that is something else entirely. And my argument is why make things up, when the standard explanation works?
Now, onto the piece of paper example. If you could covert energy back into mass, which in theory is possible, Suika would be able to change the burnt book back to normal. Either that or Suika can simply gathered different materials together to recreate the moon.
I think it's probable that the IAMP final battle is either some weird intermediate layer in the sky, or a special temporary space created by Suika, due to how strange the stage looks, and one character did say "where's this place", indicating it's not somewhere they are used to seeing. But we have no further evidence than that.
I thought the fight took place in a separate dimension. But I don't think it takes place in the future though. If you use Suika, she seems to pull people to her and it seems like they are in a separate space and only some of them can head back. It seems like for others, Suika has to send them back.
Suika was banned from the feast.
Year 2006, huh? Isn't Touhou supposed to take place in near future?
What cuc said. Touhou lore takes place about the same time as when the games appear.