Tic-Tac-Toe Mafia - GAME END

[Polaris]

Vote Count:

ActionDan (1): Raikaria
Raikaria (3): Dormio, Serela, Zakeri L-1
Zakeri (3): Dr Rawr, ActionDan, Sky Paladin L-1

Not Voting (0)
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Less than 5 minutes left!

[ActionDan]

I'll hammer in 2 min.

[Sky_Paladin]

I think Zak just lynched a scum buddy.

[ActionDan]

##Vote: Raikaria

Somehow you survived knowingly giving away possibly useful info to scum.

That's just so so damning imo.

[ActionDan]

##Unvote
##Vote Raikaria

[ActionDan]

though screw this guy for doing the same in a fit of rage.

[Polaris]

HAMMER'D!

Player 1 moved in to the space Raikaria was in charge of, intending to try and execute Raikaria for his crimes, but it looks like Raikaria was blown up in the confusion of the battle that had ensued.



Raikaria was lynched! He was a Vanilla Townie.

Final Vote Count:

ActionDan (1): Raikaria
Raikaria (4): Dormio, Serela, Zakeri, ActionDan LYNCH
Zakeri (2): Dr Rawr, Sky Paladin L-2

Not Voting (0)
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Night 2 begins now and will last 24 hours. Send in your night actions!

[Raikaria]

Call me a prophet.

Also; bah.

[Polaris]

Player 2 has once again made their move! Meanwhile, it seems like Dr Rawr was silently killed in his sleep by Player 2's ninjas. Check out the game board now:



Looks like Player 2's tic-tac-toe game is on point :v Anyway...

Dr Rawr was assassinated! He was a Vanilla Townie.

Day 3 begins now and will last 72 hours. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

End of Day 3 Countdown

LYLO is in effect. Town must lynch mafia today or they will lose.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

##Vote ActionDan
I am the cop.
ActionDan is guilty.

Night 1, I investigated Sky Palladium which is why I decided to ignore him.
Night 2, I investigated ActionDan because with Raikaria flipping town, there is basically no point to copping Zakeri.
Which brings us to today. Yo.

[Serela]

Of course it was rawr. The most neutral target due to lack of activity. ;_; I guess it made him a wild card+gives the least info to town.

Unless some kind of slam dunk is made tho', still pretty confident in Dan/Dormio being town compared to Sky/Zak. I was really indecisive end of d2 so I just went ahead and let Raikaria get hammered via not hammering Zak myself >_>; I guess it was likely the wrong decision, huh? I admit it was tempting as well because I figured either way it'd get rid of having to worry about the fervent chase on Dan with arguments I didn't agree were based on actual application of scumminess.

Anyway, I won't do something stupid like VOTE ZAKERI IN LYLO OFF THE BAT at ~*~least~*~ until other people say things and I get to gauge game state. Oh wow cut by Dormio being a thing. Uh. I'm inclined to go with it, thank goodness Sky wasn't the cop because I'd have just lynched him if he tried it >_>; But I'll think things over somewhat while I wait to see other reactions, just to make sure I'm not missing some weird contradiction.

[Polaris]

Vote Count:

ActionDan (1): Dormio L-2

Not Voting (4): ActionDan, Zakeri, Serela, Sky Paladin
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

There are about 70 hours remaining.

[ActionDan]

I'm the cop.

Zak is guilty.  Rawr was my innocent yesterday.

[ActionDan]

Dormio claiming cop first is unexpected for it being Dormio.  Last night I thought it really might be Serela/Zakeri.

ANYWAY.

Let's all have some tea and crumpets before things get wild and out of control. 

[ActionDan]

I was really indecisive end of d2 so I just went ahead and let Raikaria get hammered via not hammering Zak myself >_>; I guess it was likely the wrong decision, huh?

Which was why I was thinking it was you/Zak last night.  It was inexplicable you didn't hammer him.  Though I didn't say anything, I still had my doubts about Raikaria being scum and was just hoping Zak could die first and settle that later after I could get a cop investigate off.

[ActionDan]

Hi Rawr you're clearly 100% town amiright?

Please shower us with your pristine thoughts on this game you were clearly following all along

This is my crumb btw in case I died.  I'd have hoped town would find it.

[Serela]

Dan's crumb and the fact that, upon review, my Dan townread is stronger than my Dormio townread, makes me think that we should lynch Dormio out of the two. Dan copping the slot that had no info to try to read off makes a lot of sense as well.

[ActionDan]

Oh wow cut by Dormio being a thing. Uh. I'm inclined to go with it, thank goodness Sky wasn't the cop because I'd have just lynched him if he tried it >_>; But I'll think things over somewhat while I wait to see other reactions, just to make sure I'm not missing some weird contradiction.

:C

This is the stage where you ask questions to da cops.  You + Sky paladin whom you can trust because he's confirmed town.  Also btw, Zak is confirmed scum to you.  hope that helps.

For example you might want to ask why there was no point in copping Zakeri to Dormio after Raikaria flipped town (it wasn't like Zakeri/Raikaria was 100% had to be, especially with how the lynch defaulted to Raikaria yesterday) and there was the added bonus that Zak claimed VT, making it impossible for him to CC if he was found guilty, which in the end made me choose him over anyone else since either free painless scum lynch found or else team exposed [which is what is happening now]

[Serela]

I didn't think very hard after the Dormio claim, because...

...WHY DOES THAT ALWAYS HAPPEN IN LYLO THIS IS WHY EVERYTHING ALWAYS GOES WRONG AT THIS POINT ;_;

I seem to lose the part of my brain that's in charge of critical thinking when it's lylo.

Anyway I'm pretty sure at this point that it's clear Dan is town.

[ActionDan]

That's more reassuring.  I don't think it's an incredibly hard choice to make either, but there are definitely subtleties worth exploring, questions to be asked.

Dota time.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

wat.

Anyway I'm pretty sure at this point that it's clear Dan is town.

I have a cop result saying otherwise.

[Serela]

I have a cop result saying otherwise.

Well obviously one of you is lying, so.

Still going to wait for the others to weigh in. That's... SkyPaladin and... I... I can figure this out... it's not raikaria or rawr because they just died... *Counts on fingers* Serela Dan Dormio Sky... there's totally one more person >_>; Okay I checked a votecount it's Zakeri. You mean you didn't die on n1? Get in here and vote for your scumbuddy.

[Sky_Paladin]

Dan, the trouble is that you've towncleared/defended so many players, I can't accept your 'crumb', because at this point you could basically go back and say "oh yeah here is where I town cleared this person" for almost anybody.  Also, you're not the only one who said it. 

Rawr

im not even going to humor a sky paladin lynch for the rest of this game

which he repeated a couple of times, which pretty much heavily crumbed he was a cop who had cleared me on night 1, and scum hit him thinking he was the cop.  I even thought he was the cop.  If I was a doc, I would have covered Rai night 1 and Rawr night 2.  It was obvious.  I assume Rawr did it to buy a hit away from the real roled townies. 

Anyway, why did you check NNR night 1 instead of Zakeri?  On day 1 you said:

CF7 and Bardiche are town.

Raikaria - a little more townish than null

Serela/Dormio/Sky - null/undecided.

NNR - theoretically null but I'm surprised he hasn't posted more so acceptable lurker lynch to me.

Zak - somewhat scummier than null but not more than a tinge

2 people (me and Bard) believe Zak is scummy.

***

Serela, if you're town, I want you to consider that up until this point in the game, you've believed everything Dormio and Dan have said.  Now one of them is definitely scum, so everything you've believed so far has been wrong.  Conversely, the people in my 'camp' - the ones you've wanted dead - Raikaria, Rawr, have both flipped town.  If you believe Dan, Dormio and Zak are scum, and I am therefore town. 

I'll bet if we had lynched Zak yesterday, regardless of his flip, Dan and Serela would still be willing to run up Raikaria for a lynch today, because you're still willing to flip Zak without having considered anything at all about Dan's interactions with players who are now confirmed town before coming to your 'decision' to trust Dan over Dormio. 

What is your reasoning for trusting Dan's word over Dormio's word, when up until now you were sure they were the only two players who were definitely town? 

***

Zak, what are your thoughts?

[WHMZakeri]

My obvious Stance is that Dan is bullshit.

Listing NNR/Rawr as the night one pick, especially after he died in the night is a useless, but safe pick since it prevents catching flak for "Why not grab information from the person who has literally no information ever?"
It's a safe move that scum pretty much have to use when they claim.

I'm 80% sure he would have tried to pull a guilty on Raikaria if I had been lynched, since a huge part of the case against Raikaria was just trying to line him up with my lynch happening first. I feel like the cop claim is an attempt to convince other people to push ahead on me even though Raikaria was town.

Yesterday, when I was glancing over, I ended up being kind of suspicious of Dormio even though I don't think I voiced that concern. I've felt like all game he was blowing his cases up but AtE isn't really scummy in itself, and it doesn't matter since the answer is kind of clear to me right now.

I'll look into it later tomorrow after I sleep. I still have to look over who of Sky or Serela is Dan's partner, which I'm not really looking forward to, especially since Dormio will be the NK if we lynch Dan.

##Vote: ActionDan

[Sky_Paladin]

What teams are there?

Dormio + Dan bus we can rule out because otherwise there'd be a third player counterclaiming them. 

Dormio + Serela = impossible, as town!Dan declares Zak scum. 
Dormio + Zakeri = Possible, given Dormio's "I don't understand the case on Zakeri" the day before, and vote on Raikaria over Zak and matches Dan's claim.  I will need to check interactions. 
Dormio + Sky_Paladin = impossible, as town!Dan declares Zak scum. 

Dan + Serela = strongly likely because of mutual defending and suppression of other players at the same time, voting history, and Serela blatant refusal to vote him. 
Dan + Zak = highly unlikely because Dan was all over a Zak lynch on day 2. 
Dan + Sky_Paladin = impossible because Dormio!cop validates Sky!town. 

Any combination that doesn't include Dan or Dormio is impossible because it's a 1 v 1. 
If Dan flips red, Dormio and I are town, and it's a choice between Zak and Serela for the last scum. 
If Dormio flips red, Zak is the other scum because Dan's telling the truth about his check, and everybody else is town. 

Therefore at this stage I am confirmed town regardless of Dan or Dormio's flip.  Yipee. 

Scum teams can only be Dormio and Zakeri, or Serela and Dan. 

I'm a little concerned to see Dormio and Zak voting immediately in LYLO but it makes sense on account of:  town!Dormio knows if he is sitting on a confirm guilty, and town!Zak knows if Dan is lying about his alignment. 
A little concerned to see alleged cop!Dan not auto-voting Zakeri if he has a presumed guilty, or auto-voting alleged scum!Dormio since Dormio is theoretically lying about Dan's alignment. 

At the moment I'm leaning scum!Dan over scum!Dormio. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Re-read shows that Bard was pushing for a Zak lynch day 1, and was night hit.  Day 2, Dan and Rawr pushing for a Zak lynch, Rawr died. 

Interactions between Dormio/Zak not really compelling, there's one instance of Zak semi-destroying Dormio's case on Raikaria but it looks kind of half hearted. 

Dan and Serela put in significantly more effort than Zak and Dormio so the question for me is do I believe my analysis from day 1 which says 'Dan and Serela' or go with what I said at the start of this game?

[Sky_Paladin]

Vote analysis. 
Team 1 (Dan, Serela)
Team 2 (Dormio, Zak)

Day 1

32 hours
ActionDan (2): Zakeri, Bardiche
Zakeri (2): Dormio, Raikaria
Sky Paladin (1): NNR
Dormio(3): ActionDan , CF7, Serela L-2
Bardiche(1): Sky Paladin
Not Voting (0)

26 hours
ActionDan (1): Zakeri
Zakeri(1): Raikaria
Sky Paladin(1): NNR
Serela (2): Bardiche, Dormio
Dormio(3): ActionDan , CF7, Serela L-2
Bardiche(1): Sky Paladin

13 hours
Dormio(4): ActionDan , CF7, Serela , Sky Paladin L-1
ActionDan (2): Zakeri, Raikaria
Serela (2): Bardiche, Dormio
Sky Paladin (1): NNR

6 hours
Dormio(2): ActionDan , Serela
ActionDan (3): Zakeri, Raikaria, CF7
Serela (1): Dormio
Sky Paladin (1): Sky Paladin
Zakeri(1): Bardiche
Sky Paladin(1): NNR

3 hours
ActionDan (3): Zakeri, Raikaria, CF7L-2
Zakeri(1): Bardiche
Sky Paladin (1): NNR
Sky Paladin(2): Sky Paladin, ActionDan
Dormio(1): Serela
CF7(1): Dormio

1 hour 20
ActionDan (3): Zakeri, Raikaria, CF7L-2
Zakeri(1): Bardiche
Sky Paladin (2): NNR, Serela
Sky Paladin(1): ActionDan
Dormio(1):Sky Paladin
CF7(1): Dormio

40 minutes
ActionDan (3): Zakeri, Raikaria, CF7L-2
Sky Paladin (3): Sky Paladin, Serela , BardicheL-2
CF7(3): Dormio, ActionDan , NNR L-2

Hammer
ActionDan (3): Zakeri, Raikaria, CF7L-2
Sky Paladin(1): NNR
CF7(5): Dormio, ActionDan , Sky Paladin, Bardiche, Serela

Day 2
50 hours
ActionDan (1): Raikaria
Zakeri(1): Dr Rawr
Sky Paladin (1): Zakeri
Not Voting (4): ActionDan , Sky Paladin, Serela , Dormio

26 hours
ActionDan (1): Raikaria
Zakeri(1): Dr Rawr
Sky Paladin (1): Zakeri

Not Voting (4): ActionDan , Sky Paladin, Serela , Dormio

22.5 hours & 11 hours
ActionDan (1): Raikaria
Raikaria(1): Dormio
Zakeri(2): Dr Rawr, ActionDan L-2
Sky Paladin (1): Zakeri

Not Voting (2): Sky Paladin, Serela

2 hours
ActionDan (2): Raikaria, ZakeriL-2
Raikaria(2): Dormio, Serela L-2
Zakeri(2): Dr Rawr, ActionDan L-2

Not Voting (1): Sky Paladin

13 minutes
ActionDan (2): Raikaria, ZakeriL-2
Raikaria(2): Dormio, Serela L-2
Zakeri(3): Dr Rawr, ActionDan , Sky Paladin L-1

Hammer
ActionDan (1): Raikaria
Raikaria(4): Dormio, Serela , Zakeri, ActionDan
Zakeri (2): Dr Rawr, Sky PaladinL-2

Hitting post on this now so I can read it easily.

[Sky_Paladin]

Sorry, I'm on five hours sleep and I'm too tired to do this anymore tonight.  I'll sleep on it and check it in the morning. 

ActionDan and Zakeri were both possible lynches yesterday, and all four suspects wound up lynching Raikaria.  I want to review the motives behind why Rai got lynched instead of Zak.  but tired.

[Serela]

What is your reasoning for trusting Dan's word over Dormio's word

They were both townreads, but now that I know one is false- after reviewing them properly I decided Dan is definitely the townread I trust more. I'd be really, really surprised if Dan flipped scum- it wouldn't be so much if Dormio flipped scum, even though I would have thought him to be moreso town until these shenanigans happened.

By the way, uh, you can look at SkyPal's analysis.

Scum teams can only be Dormio and Zakeri, or Serela and Dan.

Granted, all it takes to remove SkyPal's quick reasoning to disprove Dan/Zak scumteam is Dan bussing Zakeri d2, which is definitely not impossible, but- given I already am more more inclined to think Dan is town over Dormio, yeah. (Doing beyond disproving to showing that it's actually likely is a different matter entirely, for that matter- Dorm/Zak scumteam makes more sense through interactions)

##Vote Dormio
I mean I guess I could vote Zakeri instead due to the circumstances of the odd 1v2 but if Dan is town it seriously doesn't matter since they both would -have- to be scum.

Please consider, also, that if Dan is scum he's alienating another townie against him via claiming a guilty on Zak, making his cop result really detrimental to trying to not get lynched, unless again you think it's a Zak/Dan scumteam where Dan is superbussing and now pulling silly gambits. That'd be pretty funny, but, yeah.

A little concerned to see alleged cop!Dan not auto-voting

Does it really matter?

[Serela]

Votecounts with Zakeri trying to get Dan lynched both d1 and d2 further suggests against Zak/Dan because bussing d1 is lol. I mean it could give nice cred but scum almost never wants to take the risk and throw their scumbuddy away that fast, when on d1 you can do otherwise with like no effort or gained suspicion in most cases.