I was away all day with a copy of what I'd posted earlier, and tried to data crunch out something useful.
Linked for huge.
Page 1.Page 2.Page 3.Analysis is good for day 1 only and I am aware it's just 'data'. And data interpreted by me arbitrarily tried to turn into information so I'm not going to argue that IT MUST BE SO.
Key results are:
Dan spent most of day 1 defending and inviting other players to attack other players, but made no cases of his own. I recorded him defending nine times, specifically Dormio five times.
Dormio didn't really do anything outside of pressuring myself or his cases on Serela and CF7, but he did make cases which puts him well ahead of a lot of other players.
Zak did basically nothing, and only initiated pressure actions on NNR, Dan (who was also pressuring him), and Dormio. He also defended Serela on two occasions. Other than that he has no out going player interactions.
Raikaria has good interactions with all players except Zakeri, who he's avoided on day 1, and while he did defend three players he only did so one time each, so there's no indication of buddying or misdirecting the lynch.
Serela has a few odd things.
1 - She called Dormio probably town and probably scum in the exact same sentence.
2 - She defended NNR three times, once before anybody had even considered NNR.
3 - She defended players eight times - 2x Dormio, 3x NNR, 1x Bard, 1x Dan, 1x Zak.
I arbitrarily awarded players 2 points for making a case or attacking another players case (red action), 1 point for a post that applied pressure or 'did something' (blue action), and -1 point for defending or buddying other players. I didn't include points for actions against players that were dead. I removed myself from the analysis because I know I'm town and I was looking for scums, not trying to convince everybody. I figured I'd trawl the data later, look for who I thought was scum, then work back to the posts numbers which I included on page 1 and make the appropriate case.
The numbers are arbitrary, however, the net town worth;
Dan -1
Raikaria 5
Dormio 4
Zak 2
Serela 3
NNR 0
So if we were lynching based on 'town worth', I'd get rid of Dan, and then look at Zak or Serela.
Odd stuff:
The only players excluding NNR who have had no interactions with each other (positive or negative) are Raikaria and Zakeri.
Players who have mutual defences are Dan/Dormio (x1, with Dan defending Dormio an additional 4 times), Serela and Dan, and Serela and Zak.
Actual scum hunting the good old fashioned way:
Serela's last three posts on day 1 that I considered exceptionally awful.
143I'm too tired to reread Dormio enough to re-evaluate but he's certainly improved over before (he'd do this if he was scum too but I don't have the brainpower to think about it right now
This is the Dormio is scum but not scum sentence.
Okay actually no, re-looking over the part of SkyPal's post Bard just singled out is, yeah, just from that it's way better of a lynch than NNR or CF7.
(Serela will later clarify that she meant Dormio, not Bard).
For context, the point that Dormio singled out is:
I would policy lynch Serela for being useless and also for tunneling Dormio most of the game. The vote was the laziest and she has done nothing to improve her vote except argue with Dormio.
I think Dormio is bad for focusing largely only on Serela's vote, when he could (and should) have drilled CF7 and ActionDan for their shitvotes. This inconsistency alarms me.
I get the feeling Serela's vote is more because I would policy lynch her for uselessness and tunneling than actually perceiving me as scummy.
Please also note that my apology to Dormio, earlier, directly matches the reason I said that Dormio was bad, here. That is to say, I think Dormio should have drilled CF7 and ActionDan as well as Serela.
This ends with Serela voting for me, this was in response to my targeting
Serela, not Dormio, so for her to stick to that vote for 'reasons as stated earlier' makes me believe she is acting with a scum self-interest.
153Let's look at that vote motivation some more.
I thought Sky might suddenly turn into a viable wagon as a change of events, but if it doesn't then, yeah, I'm going to have to make my mind up about one of those three.
This is consistent with a scum Serela wagon hopping all over the place, as she has done all game...and pre-ceded by her 'inb4 wagon hopping' comment. Sigh.
It's probably bad that I don't even try to refute SkyPaladin anymore.
Discrediting other players arguments without actually addressing them in any way is scummy. It's a handwave. "Don't look at what this player is saying, they are an idiot."
164This being said I'm not relating it to the situation at hand at all, and wow we have like 40 minutes left so is a SkyPal lynch seriously possible or? We need to consolidate.
It's clear at this point that Serela wants Sky dead for non scum-hunting reasons.
Who has Sky been applying pressure to?
I want to say that Serela is defending a scum!Dormio because of the sweet sweet taste of justice, but I think it's just scum!Serela.
I'm actually just going to dump a whole bunch of Serela quotes here because they look bad and I want other players to see them.
50tl;dr you're using this as an attack over me potentially doing something bad that I never actually did.
The specific situation was 'inb4 wagon jumping'. Serela called Dormio out and said 'You should have waited until I had actually wagon jumped before voting and then you would have a case, but because you voted before I wagon jumped, there is no case'. It's not a catch 22; if Dormio had never voted then Serela may never have wagon jumped. Which is true. However...Serela has been caught wagon jumping a couple of times now, so does that justify players voting her now?
Same post;
It's literally only a minute notch above a total jokevote so I didn't really care and did it anyway.
So it is not actually a joke vote, then?
75Seriously, it was a joke, because I've actually been doing that on purpose for a few games to make RVS stop
I was referencing stuff I've been doing in recent games and in one case have concrete evidence of having been blatantly self-awarely doing them in those games, is enough to null this argument >_>; (Then again, the one with evidence I was scum, but scum should have even less reason to care about ending rvs, not more)
Considering the fact that I've been consistently dominating town whenever I roll scum for the past long while
79a lot of people have been saying we could lynch nnr, but I'm sorry, uh
Nobody had really been saying it. I think one person (maybe me?) mentioned it because he was afk.
I don't think this is enough to be able to declare someone lurking scummily and not just "oh well it was rvs and then I worked and slept (or vice versa)"
and... oh wow wait he hasn't posted since page 1? yeah I mean it would have been effortless for scum to make a comment on what was going on at any point of page 2
and bam, people start thinking about lynching NNR.
That's the first of three defences of NNR, by the way.
109After what nnr said yeah I guess a lurker lynch on him wouldn't be that terrible (At this point of the game if you have 5 minutes you can probably make an educated post) but, I'd still rather go down that path d2 instead and lynch someone else today.
Pushing for a lynch but on day 2.
***
Anyway I wrote quite a lot so I am going to stop here since this is day 1 analysis and it is now day 2.
From my analysis/scum reading, I'd currently pick two out of Dan/Zak/Serela.