Yume Nikki Mafia - Over

[Nietz]

First thread (Dreams 1 and 2) here.


The Rules of Engagement:

1. You may not edit your posts. Any changes you wish to make from a post must be done in a new Edit By Way Of Post (EBWOP).

2. You may not post screenshots of anything in the thread.

3. You may not Directly Quote anything the GM says in private. This includes your initial Role PMs, any Night results or answers I have given to your questions.

4. Remember, any action that is illegal to do is also illegal to fake. If you post a message during downtime, then later edit it saying something like "Screenshots removed" then regardless if you have made Screenshots or Not, I will modkill you.

5. Parties that are allowed to talk privately to each other may only in at the times established in their role PMs.

6. Votes are to be in bold with a ## in front. For example, ##Vote Nietz. You must also ##Unvote before you can place a vote on someone else.

7. Dream Phases (Days) will last 72 hours, or until a Majority is reached. LYLO or potential LYLO Dreams will last 120 hours. If there is no majority at the end of a day phase, the result is No Lynch. You may also choose to ##Vote No Lynch and the Day will end with a No Lynch if reached by the majority.

8. The Waking (Night) Phase will last 24 hours. You may not talk about anything game related in the thread during Night except for initial reactions to the end of the Day. If you have a Night action and fail to submit it, then no action will take place. This includes Mafia Night Kills.

9. Players who do not post within 24 hours will be sent a PM warning. Players who do not post for 48 hours will be forcefully replaced or modkilled. Please announce if you plan to be away for an extended period of time.

10. When PM'ing the mods for actions, or even to ask questions, send the PM to both me and Jan-san.

11. If you are killed, you may make one "Bah, go Town/Scum" type post. You cannot make any game related comments in that post or there will be additional punishment dealt out. Furthermore, all deaths in this game are final and if you are killed, you are free to converse with other dead players or spectators privately about the game. You are also free to keep posting in the thread during Waking Phases, as long as it's not game-related.

12. The roles will be mostly equivalent to the usual Mafia roles. Any different ones will be explained in the role PM and upon player flip. (Addendum: No roles in this game have being lynched as a win condition).

13. Any character can be of any alignment, independent of flavor role. All roles were  randomly assigned to players.


Special Game Rules:

0. Dream Phases are equivalent to Day Phases, and Waking Phases to Night Phases. This is for flavor's sake, and these terms can be used interchangeably.

1. The game will take place in the different Dreamworlds of Yume Nikki. Each world has a special set of Dream Rules that will be valid as long as the game is taking place in that Dreamworld.

2. The Dreamworld changes and the rules that apply to the current one will be made very clear in mod posts. So pay attention to the current Dreamworld rules, and that the previous Dreamworld rules will no longer be applied.

3. Dream Rules supersede any normal rules they come in conflict with, but only for as long as they are in place.

----

Mod: Nietz
Co-mod: Jan-san

Figments of the subconsciousPlayers:

Alive:
1. Edible
2. Zakeri
4. u?
5. Carthrat
7. Roukanken
9. Alice
10. Serpentarius

Dead:

3. Pesco - Nopperabou, Scum Godfather - Abducted by Toriningen in the Guillotine Room.
12. BaitySM - Poniko, Town-aligned Bomb - Became a Severed Head and is taking it easy.
13. Kanguya Yaraisan - Monoko, Vanilla Townie - Was chopped in half at the Guillotine Room.
8. Kiro - Medamaude, Town-aligned Dreamscape Changer - Pushed off a pillar block in the Teleport World by scum.
11. Sodium Peroxide - Monoe, Scum Roleblocker Lynched by being thrown out of a pillar block in the Teleport World.
6. Affinity - Dwarf, Town Tracker - Stomped by scum in the Dark World.


Dreams so far:

Dream 1 - The Guillotine Room
Dream 2 - Teleport World
Dream 3 - Dark World

[Nietz]

Dark. Everywhere you look you can see but the faintest trace of the  others' silhouettes and patterns in the floor. Finding a particularly strange form laying on the floor, you gather around to inspect it. Upon a closer look it is revealed to be the body of a tiny little man, apparently crushed by something a lot bigger than him (which all of you are). Apparently, his small sword wasn't of much help defending him.

Now you try to stay close together so you can her each other and so that if someone tries to attack anyone, it would cause a noticeable struggle.

What CAN'T be noticed by everyone however, is people getting close to others in the dark and whispering in their years...

Affinity, playing the Dwarf, Town Tracker, was killed.

Dream Rules:
1. Private Messages between any two individuals are allowed.

2. Messages to multiple recipients are not allowed, except if the other recipient is a mod.

3. Talking outside of the forum thread or forum PM is still forbidden except if it was previously allowed for the player. Minimum activity rules are still valid for thread posts.

Alive!:
1. Edible
2. Zakeri
4. u?
5. Carthrat
7. Roukanken
9. Alice
10. Serpentarius

They're dead, Jim:
3. Pesco - Nopperabou, Scum Godfather - Abducted by Toriningen in the Guillotine Room.
12. BaitySM - Poniko, Town-aligned Bomb - Became a Severed Head and is taking it easy.
13. Kanguya Yaraisan - Monoko, Vanilla Townie - Was chopped in half at the Guillotine Room.
8. Kiro - Medamaude, Town-aligned Dreamscape Changer - Pushed off a pillar block in the Teleport World by scum.
11. Sodium Peroxide - Monoe, Scum Roleblocker - Lynched by being thrown out of a pillar block in the Teleport World.
6. Affinity - Dwarf, Town Tracker - Stomped by scum in the Dark World.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
The Dream will last 72 hours.

[WHMZakeri]

Really? Affinity's claim still looked like a fake claim to me (Vague details, name came at a later time, etc.)

In any case ... PMs, huh? Neat.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

This dream is hateful. Seriously. FWIW, I am ignoring any game-related PMs sent to me, so don't bother.

In any order, we lynched a scum! Let's see what we can get from wagon analysis off of Sodium Azide. Particularly of interest right now are Zakeri and Roukan, primarily Zakeri, due to not posting in the thread when he was listed as being online near the deadline, combined with the weirdness that is still a WIFOM.

Would like to see more analysis from UνκερταινΚιττεν, as well.

[Edible]

Thread locks at 1000 now, FYI.

Two scum down and we can PM each other at will, though I'm not sure what we'd get from it.

Will reread SP for scum analysis when I get back home.

[Carthrat]

This dream is hateful. Seriously. FWIW, I am ignoring any game-related PMs sent to me, so don't bother.

just woke up after being awake until dawn, so not coherent. post stuffs later.

[WHMZakeri]

But D2 Zakeri is bad.  First of all, he suddenly drops his

Pants?

Zakeri, you rogue!

Tee hee.

In any case, after going through my reread, these are my current suspects:

Carthrat - Votes Alice for missing, Ignores Alice's opinion of SP, and targets Edible after Edible keeps his vote on Affinity even after Affinity's claim. Carthrat avoids switching his vote to SP until it's deadline time. The main counterpoint to this of course is that a majority of his posts seem town-oriented, (413 - Attempts to Analyze my thought process, did nothing particularly scummy day one, etc.) and had the option of switching to Hammer Affinity (although he was adamant about not lynching the uncounterclaimed right away, so he might have been forced too.)

Umu - Has yet to post an analysis of some sort, Hammered SP instead of Affinity, but as above, that's a nulltell since Affinity had claimed.

All in All, My vote goes to Umu. This is really just scumhunting by process of elimination, to be honest. If everyone wants, I can post my reasoning for thinking everyone else is town, but ehh.

Vote: Umu

[Carthrat]

I want to make a point about leaving umu alive, since he hasn't really been around much and that's semi-excusable given his circumstances, and it'd be better to give him a chance to talk about shit (or not talk even more, as the case may be.)

But with 2 scum dead and it being a 13 man game, I'd figure we're dealing with a lone scum, and what he says is rather less likely to be all that helpful for figuring who he is right now.

In any case, we have come full circle and the two straightforwardly scummiest people around for me are Rou and Serp. Neither of them seemed to have the most natural response to Pesco in day one (namely, Rou's overblown brawling with the guy and Serp's attempt to pull neutrality on that entire argument.)

Serp's switch to Sodium was late, and only at a time when it became clear that nobody was buying into an Affinity lynch. Ugly.

Meanwhile, Rou bought into the Affinity lynch himself based on Edible's case, promptly scooted through each mention they made of each other and highlighted them as if they were all awful, and stuck to him like glue the rest of the day. Looks like he decided to jump to an okay-looking case and throw in whatever random evidence he could find.

Thinking Rou more likely than Serp here. I keep looking at day one, thinking it's just too hysterical, and that town-Rou wouldn't let himself get suckered into a huge slapfight like that. I'll play this. ##Vote: Roukanken

All my day2 cases are pretty much dropped. It'd take some effort to convince me anyone other than umu, serp, and rou are worth lynching today.

umu's a flat line, since while I get why lynching him is a good idea on paper, he's cloaked and immune to scumdar detection. UK's own posts are just so much rambling, it's hard to get a fix.

[FinnKaenbyou]

namely, Rou's overblown brawling with the guy

When he's sitting there insulting me while he brushes off my case, I think I have a right to be more than slightly irritated.

Meanwhile, Rou bought into the Affinity lynch himself based on Edible's case, promptly scooted through each mention they made of each other and highlighted them as if they were all awful, and stuck to him like glue the rest of the day. Looks like he decided to jump to an okay-looking case and throw in whatever random evidence he could find.

I'll repeat the statement I made earlier - when I have two people I suspect roughly equally, unless I get a reason to change my mind I choose one and run with it so I don't confuse myself and break down. In this case it was choosing between Serp, Zak and Affinity, and I tentatively cleared Zak for being just too insane and Serp for insisting on the triplynch on D1. Affinity's claim seemed far too convenient, especially when he tracked the dead guy.

So, here's what I have on everyone so far:
Edible: Held his vote on Pesco through all of D1. Unless he went for some insane bus he's most likely Town.
Zak: Urgh. In all honesty, nothing about Zak has been cleared up yet. The WIFOM from D1 is still there. Add today's post where he votes Umu for not posting (when surely he'll be replaced anyway if he doesn't show up?) and he's easily one of my biggest suspects for today.
u?: I can't analyse nothing, honestly. Say something, dammit.
Carth: Anyone else noted that Carth hasn't come up in discussion AT ALL?
Note how jumpy he was on D2 - he moved from Zak to Alice to Edible and only onto SP when the lynch was pretty much guaranteed.
The jump to Edible on one point seems awfully sudden, especially since said point was believing Affinity's claim. Later on he starts going on with 'hey even a counterclaim doesn't clear him, there could be two trackers', which is pretty useless analysis and seems to be trying too hard to argue the point. He even admitted later that he was 'taking a shot at Edible more than anything'.

Serp's switch to Sodium was late, and only at a time when it became clear that nobody was buying into an Affinity lynch. Ugly.

This when your vote change was less than 90 seconds earlier, when it was clear the Edible case wasn't happening?
Rou: I dunno, I think he had Town's best intentions in mind with the D1 case on Pesco, and a lot of people agreed that the Affinity claim was a little too convenient.
Alice: Alice gets a LOT of credit for being on Sodium all of D2. Gonna take a lot to make me change my mind on this one.
Serp: In all honesty, his neutrality in the PesRou debate is something that'll hang with him, whatever his affiliation. Looking back without the tunnel vision, I'm seeing this quote:

Regarding myself, Roukanken said everything I could have on the matter.

I should have picked up on this earlier. Using me as his defense doesn't look good. Still, the fact that he was fine with Pesco's lynch D1 when he could have insisted on giving the GF another day to live means he still has some credit in my book.

Obviously I want Umu to speak more, but Zak needs to go under suspicion again. Carth and Serp are both kind of eh, but I'm sick of trying to turn white into black by saying that claiming a town role is scummy and defending scum is a towntell.

[Carthrat]

Jumpy, yes, 'cos I kept rethinking. If you want to quantify that with 'and that's scummy because' be my guest.

As for Serp, I'll acknowledge that yeah, he could have just felt obliged to make sure a lynch happens. But being on Affinity late after trackerclaim is bad enough (particularly after I pointed out the silliness of lynching him). I'm not sure if he just wasn't around offhand. In any case some insight from him into his lateday actions would be appreciated.

Although you have a point on the triplynch, Serp lynch is looking less cool all the time. (self-referential stuff is... weird.. uh... why would you include that. Please tell us why you voted Affinity in the first place, again.)

I'm not thinking Zakeri is scummy myself, owing to Sodium's vote on him and a general idea that his thought patterns are townish in nature. Please actually be suspicious of him instead of telling other people to be suspicious of him.

Although yes I'd like Zak to please tell us why you've eliminated everyone but uu, since process of elimination may well be the only intelligent way to catch him.

[?q]

I've finished my preliminary analysis; quit whining.

Points of interest.

1.  Rou 56 and on.  I shudder to envision the day that Rou and Pesco are on the same scumteam, but I'm pretty sure this isn't it.  I don't think I've seen scum fight relentlessly with each other without stopping (Kilga and UK went for a page before swapping out).

2.  Serpentarius 98, in which he refuses to touch this the Rou vs. Pesco deal that is taking over the thread and but doesn't tell them to stop.  Go ahead!  Make a scene that will draw everyone in!
Caveat:  Pesco DID flip notTown.  This would be more damning if the argument was Town vs. Town.
To save space, I really don't like the stance he took on Rou vs. Pesco - namely that they're both suspicious, but not one more than the other and it's someone else's job to find something he can pile onto if they thought enough of it.

3.  Zakeri 108.

Personally, on the self vote, I've learned from previous, recent games that nothing screwed the town over faster than self voting. Oddly enough, we can't seem to go a single game without someone self voting. At this point, there are only two things I see being true: Beilos is Scum trying to WiFoM the town into not voting for him, or Beilos is trying to pull off a fongs gambit, in which he deserves to be voted for anyway.

##Unvote, ##Vote: BaliySM

Even for Early Day One^TM, this is weak.  It's basically a policy vote.

4.  Edible 113.  It looks basically like something I would post on a bad day.  The important part right now is the comment that Pesco and Rou are both scum, which I certainly haven't been getting from reading the thread.  There's that, and in explaining the other options he neglects to mention that one could be Town and one could be not (which I believe is the case, though I have hindsight helping me here).

6.  Alice Margatroid 121. 

Europe's horrible affront to music

But I like The Final Countdown.  Well, not the music video so much, but you get the idea

7.  Alice Margatroid 123.  I like this post very much, but I don't understand the Serp-Town read on this first readthrough, and since it's from an intuitive decision, I'm going to have to ask for a new opinion.

8.  Affinity 125.  Redacted.

9.  Zakeri 126. 

I'll admit, I wasn't there until after Pesco was lynched, but It seems more than a few people are disputing the idea that Pesco has changed.

In any case, thanks to multi-track lynching, I have nothing against the votes on Pesco.

It's a backtrack, but I'm not sure what alignment to place this under.

10.  Carthrat 133. 

Anyone making statements to the effect of 'xyz is clearly town' has themselves clearly not played any game at all, ever, where scum has won.

I disagree.

11.  Serpentarius 134. 

I don't think it's far-fetched.  If we find a reasonably plausible scenario that links two or three players as scum, I say we try to lynch them all.  Going after several unrelated suspected scum gives us the advantage that we clean up several leads at once, but going after a group of apparently coherent scum makes it a lot harder for any of them to escape a lynching, in case our suspicions are correct.  I favor the latter.

No, this is a terrible strategy.  It's a way to chain an entire segment of the game into lynches based on a premises that are unsubstantiated at best (D1).

12.  Serpentarius 138. 

Uh, damn.  Do I really need to respond to this?  You really aren't helping your case, Baity.  Even aside from the fact that looking too scummy to lynch is a stupid tactic from a selfish perspective, you also end up screwing with the town and forcing them to spend half a day trying to figure out what the hell you're trying to do.  If you're actually town, you've basically made a gigantic diversion of yourself for the scum to hide behind.

This bothers me, most notably the preface.  In complaining that people are going to pile on to BaitySM-Town, Serpentarius... does just that.  The last sentence is pretty funny too, considering Pesco did just that in the next post.

13.  Serpentarius Cream147. 

Your scumhunting is your own business, especially this early in the game.

Does this read to anyone like a fancy way of saying "Lay off"?

Now I'm pressing Kanguya.

Wait, you don't mean this.

As for who else looks scummy right now, I'm tired of Kanguya Yaraisan humping my leg.  Only the scum know who's definitely townie, and objectively speaking, I don't see how I've done anything to warrant that kind of trust.

Two lines of explanation counts as pressing...?  Compared to your walls o' text in defense, this is pretty obviously lackluster. 
Incidentally, Zakeri said basically the same thing, albeit without the excessive praise. 

Serp - pro-town
I'm seeing quite a bit of determined scum hunting. as long as this keeps up, Serp is cleared for me.

What has Serp done that you would feel has been wrong?

Yet you said he was fine.

14.  Roukanken 148.

You don't have a reason to suspect [Pesco], but you don't have a reason to trust him. Whatever happened to Innocent Until Proven Guilty, ye of the Shikieiki avatar?

I'm pretty sure Innocent Until Proven Guilty doesn't apply in Mafia.  At all.

15.  Serpentarius 167.  (This is hopefully not a tunnel.) 

I'm not feeling so generous towards Mr_Alert.  His last post was 22 hours ago, was lacking in content, and was only made due to Roukanken's prodding.  He still has his random vote from the beginning of the game on me.  Am I the only one who thinks this is a bad thing?

My top three preferred lynches right now are as follow:  BaitySM, Kanguya Yaraisan, Mr_Alert.  Incidentally, since we all seem to agree that anything more than a triple lynch is certainly a bad idea, this doesn't leave any room for poor Pesco47.  Roukanken, if you're still convinced that Pesco47 is worse than the guy who still has his random vote from the beginning of the game, the guy who was humping my leg on horrible reasoning 'till just recently, and freakin' BaitySM, I think we may have reached the point where I'll actively discourage your tunneling.  We need to settle on our lynches soon.

The hindsight is killing me, especially the deflection to an inactive.  Inactivity != lurking, and inactive players - especially of the Mr. Alert variety - need to be replaced.
I completely overlooked the possibility of Mr. Alert being scum.  Even so, Mr. Alert was probably the most bussable Mafioso out there so yeah :v

16.  Zakeri 170. 

I don't see why the main point against Serp (not getting involved with Rou and Pesco's arguement) makes him scum rather than lazy town - and that's ignoring his prods of Beilos and Affinity.

Is Zakeri trying to tie himself to Serpentarius?  This is something like the third time Zakeri has made an obvious call of innocent on Serpentarius.

UK's case on Gensokyo Blender is really nice, but it's worrisome because it contains mostly "KY is acting like KY Always does, and that's no good." I'm not a big fan of clearing people just because it's their meta to play badly (for whatever reason), but at the same time, there really isn't an actual scumtell to work with in the whole case. I'm alright with the lynch, but I wouldn't vote for it.

I thought when this was posted that UK pulled out the meta attack here, but evidently not.  I'm not really sure what to make of this considering KY flipped Town.

17.  Serpentarius 173. 

Zakeri, KY has some convincing scumtells against him.  His following of a popular townie at the time, myself, looks pretty bad.  It's an instinct for newbie scum to attach themselves to a townie, loudly proclaiming "This person is definitely town," 'cause of course the scum know who's town and who's not.  You shouldn't need me to tell you this.

The paternalistic tone here reminds me somewhat of me-scum playing with Juls-scum.

18.  Alice Margatroid 178.

And now it's time for my least-favourite activity in the world: trying to figure out which of you are scum, and which of you are merely scummy townies. I really wish I had an unlimited dayvig right about now.

@Whoever: I'm not exactly giving BaitySM a free pass. Just that his behaviour is perplexing enough that it wouldn't necessarily warrant an immediate lynch. However, due to today, I am perfectly comfortable with, and even endorse the BaitySM lynch, especially after his horrible post of "I'm going to be a distraction to Town in order to not get lynched yay!".

Are you my alt?  Seriously.

Basically at this point I want BaitySM to be lynched.

wait what

So yeah, I'm fine with Mr_Alert as a third lynch if he won't even show up to unvote Serpentarius or at least justify his vote on him beyond reasons only sufficient to justify a random vote.

See what I said to Serpentarius.

19.  Rou 180.  Suddenly, Serpentarius!  Agreeing with me is pro-Town Azn

20.  Zakeri 183. 

Okay, this has been bugging me for a bit, and I think Rou's post points out why. Do you believe targeting someone who is inactive day one is more important enough to try and measure everyone's vote so we can get an extra lynch for it? I'm all for Alert hate, but I think this is wavering into "Free Mislynch" territory.

Right! Morally right!  But... um... now that Mr. Peroxide has flipped scum, I don't know what to make of this.

21.  Edible 188, which basically uses many words to say:

Baity.  Claim.
Pesco. Die.
Rou's probably not with Pesco.
More at 11.

Since he advocated Pesco's lynch, I'm not sure what this is.

22.  Affinity 194. Redacted.

23.  Edible 219. 

You guys are awfully quick to jump on me, given there are much better targets for inactivity this game. :V  I wonder who started that trend.

This looks REALLY bad ("Don't lynch me; there are worse noncontributors out there!").  I can see why you were considered a wanted lynch yesterday.
Also, lol at Rou's response in 221.

24.  Zakeri 230. 

Also, Pesco is town. Mark my words. I'm still doing analysis, but a surprising amount of my analysis is how Roukanken is using craplogic to get Pesco angry at him. Alice's vote is also very suspicious because of it.

Oh, THIS is what everyone was talking about yesterday.
Of the walls that followed based on this - that speaking frankly I didn't read - the concise conclusion is that Zakeri greatly overstated Pesco's Towniness and (to steal Edible's words) took a great risk in doing so.  As to whether Zakeri was actually trying to dive in front of the guillotine for Pesco, I think that would be best answered by comparing it to what he was doing for Serpentarius (see bottom).

25.  Alice Margatroid 256.

You guys post too much walls and bullshit and not enough content. Half of the arguing today has been about scumhunting playstyle and a pointless player vs. player spat, which ultimately does nothing to actually help find scum.

You ARE my alt. 
Bluntly put, I'm fast-forwarding through everything that looks like a wallpost at this point.

26.  Serpentarius 274.  Reading that tl;dr down at the bottom, I feel somehow less informed than when I started reading it.  It's made of cotton candy; little content, much hot air.

27.  End of D2 vote analysis.
S. Peroxide - A. Margatroid
Edible - Carthrat
Affinity - Serpentarius
Affinity - Roukanken
unvote -> S. Peroxide - Edible
Zakeri - S. Peroxide
S. Peroxide - Carthrat
S. Peroxide - Serpentarius
S. Peroxide - Me!

The people who are most likely to not be scum bussing their partners in this case are Edible and A. Margatroid.  After Edible's vote, the S. Peroxide lynch was basically decided, and based on the vote record no Town points go out to the latecomers.

-----
~~
-----

Thus.

I don't have anything against Alice Margatroid.
I have little against Roukanken, mostly because I can't envision him bussing Pesco like he did.
Edible is Townish mostly for the wagon on S. Peroxide-scum yesterday.
Zakeri... is ambivalently Town and scum at the same time.  I'm assuming that since the "worlds" are randomly determined (and thus we didn't HAVE to get the guillotine room D1), there are not four scum in this game.  If there were, I would absolutely pin Serpentarius/Zakeri as the remaining scumpair.  Now... I'm not sure.
I didn't get much from Carthrat up to this point, but the stances he took during D2 disagreed with both my opinions (obvscumtell) and the flips.  Further reading required.
All signs point to Serpentarius being scum.  Let's end this.

##Vote: Serpentarius (L-4)

[?q]

EBWOP:  That should be (L-3).

[Nietz]

Vote count:

u? (1): Zakeri
Roukanken (1): Carthrat
Serpentarius (1): u?

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Not voting: Edible, Roukanken, Alice, Serpentarius

58.5 hours remaining.

Vote: Umu

Next time remember to put the ## or I might not count your vote.

[Serp]

Alright, going to address the points against me first.

Regarding my stances on the two scum we've lynched, it's true that I wasn't convinced by the case on either.  I saw Pesco as a terciary lynch, only a good choice since we had three lynches to distribute.  I thought that Affinity's claim was as fake and scummy as a claim can be, and only helped the SP lynch because I wanted to eliminate him as a distraction from going after Affinity the next day.  I know I don't get many Townie points for either stance, but I think my logic has been consistent.

Using me as his defense doesn't look good.

Keep in mind that I was being asked about my stance of Pesco v. Roukanken, again, and you had showed up and repeated the points I had given you in my defense there.  Combine that with the fact that it was the limited post length dream, and the fact that Affinity had just roleclaimed and things were a bit frantic, and I think I was justified in taking a short cut.

As for Serp, I'll acknowledge that yeah, he could have just felt obliged to make sure a lynch happens. But being on Affinity late after trackerclaim is bad enough (particularly after I pointed out the silliness of lynching him). I'm not sure if he just wasn't around offhand. In any case some insight from him into his lateday actions would be appreciated.

I thought his claim was fake, and I'm not going to just concede to a mislynch just 'cause my top suspect has made a bad roleclaim.  I don't agree with your reasoning here about how the rewards justify the risk.   A mislynch isn't a small thing.  As it turns out, I was the one pushing the mislynch, but you yourself agreed with me about how bad Affinity's claim looked.

To save space, I really don't like the stance he took on Rou vs. Pesco - namely that they're both suspicious, but not one more than the other and it's someone else's job to find something he can pile onto if they thought enough of it.

That's my outlook and strategy.  I think I've defended it well enough.

This bothers me, most notably the preface.  In complaining that people are going to pile on to BaitySM-Town, Serpentarius... does just that.  The last sentence is pretty funny too, considering Pesco did just that in the next post.

Well, yes, I acknowledged that people would pile onto BaitySM, Town or Scum.  I said it bothered me, because whatever his affiliation, we wouldn't be able to get a lot of information from such an obvious vote.  That doesn't mean I thought that piling onto him was unjustified.

Does this read to anyone like a fancy way of saying "Lay off"?

Considering that I was being asked to stop Roukanken from scumhunting at the time (and that, as it happens, his target was scum after all), I think I was justified.

Two lines of explanation counts as pressing...?  Compared to your walls o' text in defense, this is pretty obviously lackluster. 
Incidentally, Zakeri said basically the same thing, albeit without the excessive praise.

As I pointed out here, Kanguya wasn't giving me a whole lot to press.  I also explicitly stated your point regarding Zakeri here, in that post you called fluffy and useless.

Now, analysis after SP's flip.  Since SP was Mr Alert on Day 1, and Mr Alert was indeed probably the easiest scum to bus ever, we can't get a whole lot more from Day 1 analysis.  Late Day 2 looks the most interesting to me.

Alice and Edible are Town as Town can be for spearheading the SP lynch, as has been said.  SP was trying to push for a Zakeri in his last moments, which is a point in his favor.  Roukanken went to sleep an hour and a half before the deadline, and put his vote on Affinity...  but I can't really blame him for that.  The SP lynch was a last-minute invention.  Not quite sure how to read Carthrat being so anti-Edible.  I guess I'm inclined to give him Town credit for going along with the SP lynch, though.  If he had been adamantly pro-SP and anti-Affinity instead of the other way around, we'd have probably lynched Affinity instead.

That leaves umu.  With his late entry, he didn't have much of a chance to give input.  In Reply 460 he says that Affinity looks bad, but he doesn't want to vote against him.  Says in 467 that an Affinity lynch is inevitable, no need to fight it.  Distances himself from SP in 471, but puts forward Zakeri as a better lynch.  Finally drops the hammer on SP when it's clear that no other lynch will happen.  Essentially, he manages to point the finger of suspicion at all three without committing himself, and only acts when absolutely necessary.

Now, looking at the full analysis we've finally got from him, I'm not liking a lot of what I see.

All signs point to Serpentarius being scum.  Let's end this.

This is what bugs me.  No, I don't mean the fact that he's voting against me (though I suppose don't like that either).  I mean the fact that through the whole post, he mentions how scummy everyone is, and then says "In conclusion, Serpentarius is obvscum."  It looks to me like he wants to give the impression that I'm the only possible lynch, while still having statements out there about how everyone else is scummy so that when I flip Town, he can say "Well, with Serpentarius cleared, we can move onto my other suspects."

u? himself is leading my scum chart.  Carthrat isn't quite clear, but he's been giving me a strong Town impression.  Early on, my biggest complaint against him was that he was halfassedly tunneling me, but now his scumhunting is at least acting townie, and his position on SP gives him some hard townie credit.  Zakeri hasn't cleared himself on either lynch, but as has already been said, his fumbling on Pesco is too weird to be a scumtell, and his attempts on Day 2 look pretty solid.  So, u? gets my vote.

##Vote u?  (L-2)

[Nietz]

Vote count:

u? (2): Zakeri, Serpentarius
Roukanken (1): Carthrat
Serpentarius (1): u?

Not voting: Edible, Roukanken, Alice

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
u? is at L-2
 
51 hours remaining.

[Edible]

Son of a bitch.

Opera randomly decided to eat up all of my system resources, then locked up.  So much for my awesome post of awesomeness.

Guess I'll summarize:

Late Day 2:

u?: "Hey guys, I think Affinity's town but we're not going to get a lynch on anyone else!"

u?: "Hey, a case on SP.  ... So how about that Zakeri guy!"

I'm not going to vote him until I do a reread of Roukanken and Serpentarius, who are the only other two I'm even remotely worried about right now.

[WHMZakeri]

The thing about Pesc/rou (Pes-Crow?) is that I don't think they would have gone to such extremes if they were both scum. The argument would have been toned down and looked more like a "Obligatory Pesco annoying Rou because that's what everyone expects" type of quarrel. Instead it blew to cover the first half of day one and lead to a case that - thanks to Rou's persistance and the multi-track lynching followed through to a scum lynch. Even if it was planned bussing, I think Rou would have been turned off by the multiple lynches that day. As it stands, in the unlikely event that Rou is Scum with pesco, then I'm willing to bet money that there's a post in the quickchat topic where Pesco says "You should totally lynch me, I'll act scummy and everything."

Serpentarius ... I'll admit, my reasoning for believing He's town is weak, but I don't think I would advocate his lynch for today. I'll have to do a reread of day one for him.

Not really and Edit: Ahh, I remember now. Thank god for notes. Looking back around where Pesco brought up a few points against Serp on 168, I checked the nearest vote count and on it where Mr. Alert and Carthrat. Mr. Alert, if I remember had it on a random vote, so possible newbbussing...

...and found Carthrat's vote: number 133. Reasons for voting Serp at that stage were because Serp tried to remain neutral, and because Serp was testing for reactions with a vote on Affinity for Beilos' quick unvote. Weird thing is SP, I think ocmmented on Carthrat's vote here...

...alright then, here it is, post 350

His 133 is somewhat hypocritical from what I can tell:Telling Serp that he's just saying that Roukan and Pesco are stupid and not taking a stance while stating in the same post that he's saying that Roukan and Pesco are being overbearing... and he doesn't really take a stance.

notice at the end he finishes the post with "I gerenally think he's town" even though the rest of the analysis on Carthrat was null tells as far as I can tell.

This is beginning to sound like a case, isn't it?

anyway, noticing Carthrat's vote switching on the end of day two, he says he wants to vote Edible, but can't due to not enough time. Then there's Serpent's vote on SP saying he rather an Affinity lynch. This actually looks weird because Affinity was L-1 at the time. I think as Scum, Serpent could have gotten away with putting the vote on Affinity and then apologizing. Probably might have given SP the chance to save himself as well. Carthrat on the other hand wouldn't get away with it due to his stance on the matter in his argument with Edible.

Umu is still the wildcard, though, but I'm more willing to unvote him after what I've looked through in this post.

(Also, sorry Nietz. It was late, I knew I'd mess something up.)

[Carthrat]

er um wasn't Serp *already voting* Affinity when he decided to give up the ghost and change to SP?

My gut reaction earlier in the thread was 'well he probably just jumped off to bus' but a lynch-conscious townie would do as much as well, I can't really take much from it now.. apart from, well, he was on Affinity in the first place, which is pretty bad all by itself.

Good point on Rou vs. Pesco, though. It's true that with the MULTI-TRACK LYNCHING!!! that kind of hardcore scum vs. scum fight would in fact not be too wise for scum, since it'd be very hard to avoid the lynch of one or the other party. ##Unvote, sure.

Grr. Edible and Alice seem pretty much clear for frontrunning SPlynch. SP's vote on Zak didn't seem like a bus, he had two people who weren't his scumbuddy in bad shape to vote then if he wanted (and after losing scum on day 1, happily forwarding a lynch for another one on day 2 is mildly suicidal.) And I don't think Rou is scummy anymore.

tl;dr Inexorably drawn closer to either an umulynch or a serplynch. Almost everyone else is looking much better.

Begging off voting for now, I'll try and toss something in before I go to bed.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Hm. Looking at the walls that've been posted this seems to have suddenly turned into a Umu vs. Serp fight.

Initially I was seeing Umu as Town since I remembered UK as attacking Pesco back on D1, but at no point did she ever actually move her vote from Baity, which was weird.

Umu's actual posts have been much less solid:
There are several good points on Affinity BUT I think he's Town BUT I'm okay with lynching him
Hm, that's a pretty good case on SP...but how about the player we all discussed and discarded at the start of the day?

As for the wall, it reeks of Serp tunneling. Especially the 'all the signs' part, which is quite a jump to make when you're only HALFWAY THROUGH YOUR CASE.

The paternalistic tone here reminds me somewhat of me-scum playing with Juls-scum.

Who the hell is Juls? And why do you assume that Serp plays scum the same way you play scum?

And another thing that pissed me off about Umu's wall:

Are you my alt?  Seriously.

You ARE my alt.

These are practically the only points Umu makes on Alice, and their main purpose seems to be to link the two together. Considering Alice is probably the closest thing we have to a confirmed Townie, this seems like an effort to earn free Town cred.

Edging towards a possible Umu lynch, but want to see the second half of his analysis first.

[Carthrat]

I.. dunno, Rou. Some of the stuff you have against uu seems to be presentation shit. Jumping on a turn of phrase (re: 'all the signs') seems a bit off.

The bait-and-switch idea of 'that's a pretty good case on SP but WHAT ABOUT THAT GUY' was hardly compelling. Don't see scum pulling that with any hope of saving a buddy, there was just no effort there. It very much fits in with the idea of someone still catching up and wanting more to know about things than anything.

In short I can't really see anything you have there being particulary damning of uu. And yet I'm going to vote him anyway, since wrt day 1

-Serp was hyping a triplynch at a time when he could conceivably have helped pesco not, y'know, get lynched without much effort on his part

-As was said a bit earlier, Rou vs. Pesco might be overblown but that's a crazy dangerous thing for scum to do with so many lynches floating around on day 1

-Alice and Edible are virtually cleared, Zak just... looks pretty good. Depends if you think Sodium's vote was a bus or not in the end. I don't.

##Vote: uu

Where are our pseudo-confirmed and what do they think?

[Nietz]

Vote count:

u? (3): Zakeri, Serpentarius, Carthrat
Roukanken (0): Carthrat
Serpentarius (1): u?

Not voting: Edible, Roukanken, Alice

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
u? is at L-1
 
37.5 hours remaining.

[FinnKaenbyou]

I.. dunno, Rou. Some of the stuff you have against uu seems to be presentation shit. Jumping on a turn of phrase (re: 'all the signs') seems a bit off.

It just irritates me that he declares Serp to be obvscum when he hasn't even analysed any of D2 yet.

Umu, you're at L-1. Claim, please?

[?q]

Nietz, I apologize.  I wanted this game to be a success for you, but... I simply don't have time for it, and the role and circumstances I've been assigned are for one better than me.

Trump card, go.

@mod:  The Mafia forfeits.

I don't mind getting tempb& for this.  This weekend has been too busy, and considering that my parents are making me I'm trying to get a job I don't have an expectation of sustained free time any more.

It's a trump card because I know that had I not replaced in (and thus after UK's modkill), S.Peroxide would have folded as well.  Thus, there's no net loss by my replacement.

-----

My role is Kyukyu-kun, the multicolored railing rubber whose sole purpose is to prove that in Japan, Freud is always right.

My fatal mistake in this game was in not lying through my teeth and rejecting the Affinity lynch, instead trying to play the usual Town game.  Not helping this was the fact that I hadn't finished reading (the crossouts in my analysis ended at around where I was at at the time, thus I had no idea that by rejecting the Affinity lynch I would be bussing my partner) and had no idea what public sentiment was.  I killed Affinity because with one Mafioso left, a Tracker is effectively a Cop.

I believe that I would not have posted anything different had I been Town.  To that end, my analysis wall doubles as my postgame commentary on the game.  Alice really is very Townie.  Serpentarius really is very... not.  There's really not much remarkable about D2 tbqh; it's a lot of stalling and nothing that would have changed my opinions about anything.  I simply don't have the time or energy to pursue it at this point.

Again, I apologize, Nietz.

[Edible]

u?: That's fine, IMO.  Mafia got screwed this game by two of its three members dropping out Day 1.

##vote u? <_<

[?q]

You can't lynch me.  I forfeited.

[Edible]

I can certainly try!

Also, Serp was the cop and half the town was in on it.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Uh...wow. That's quite a claim.

##Vote: Umu (L+1)

Don't really feel any satisfaction in this, given that two thirds of the mafia had to get replaced. >_>

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

lol quasicollusive-lockdown.

[Edible]

It's sad when I have to doubt myself by suspecting Roukanken in this game of possibly being scum and bussing pesco from the start of Day 1.

[?q]

##Myonvote: u? (L+1.5)