Author Topic: Omerta - Town of Mafia (Game over Scum wins) (Read 42885 times)

O4rfish · « **Reply #420 on:** March 02, 2014, 04:05:29 AM »

DNA, who do you suspect for scum 3rd player?

Shadoweh · « **Reply #421 on:** March 02, 2014, 04:37:12 AM »

Five dollar discount on cement shoes, buy now!

Zakeri (3): Raikaria, Darkninjaabc, Oarfish
ActionDan (2): Zakeri, Sky Paladin

Not voting: Serela, ActionDan, Schezo

With 8 mooks kicking, it takes 5 to lynch.
You have 62 hours remaining.
Day 3 Timer

DNAbc · « **Reply #422 on:** March 02, 2014, 04:52:20 AM »

no clue. atm i do read raikaria and serela and dan scummy but as aforementioned its not convicting enough for them.

ActionDan · « **Reply #423 on:** March 02, 2014, 05:22:52 AM »

Quote from: Serela on March 02, 2014, 02:31:11 AM

Also O4rfish, Zak is only l-2, not l-1. and AD would surely vote Zakeri over himself getting lynched if it came down to it

While this is true I'll have some time tomorrow to look a bit more carefully at

Raikaria
Zak
Bard/DN (buuuuut recent posts look town no lies)
Skypal

O4rfish · « **Reply #424 on:** March 02, 2014, 06:10:30 AM »

Quote from: Serela on March 01, 2014, 05:06:43 PM

I skimmed End Of D1 and remembered why I felt good about Dan before,

Are you serious? He made an empty case on cheese and then said he wasn't voting for CF7 but wouldn't say why. That looks extremely scummy to me.

Not to mention d2, when he followed Schezo's result with a vote, then when Schezo was questioned he unvoted and started bringing up SK rolespec. Again, extremely scummy.

Schezo · « **Reply #425 on:** March 02, 2014, 07:53:24 AM »

Gosh it sucks that Bardiche's slot is the most null thing in the game.

People (Oarfish, Raikaria) trying to spec into why the n1 kill of Cheez died are goofy as shit. Even with a scumflip, pursuing that to make the Dan case and whatever else you're doing with it literally means almost nothing.
The Zakeri cases feel so by the book I'm not really sold on it. "Wow such a scum move day 2 let's get him" It's just meh.

Raikaria's case on Sky Paladin acknowledges that it lacks any conviction with the post after and then he immediatly switches. If he had just kept this it would have been an "ok I guess" kind of case but he makes that unneeded after it and immediately bails. The Zakeri hop again feels like it was just a "Zakeri did scum move #32" when it's possible for town to have committed the action too.
##Vote: Raikaria

Raikaria · « **Reply #426 on:** March 02, 2014, 09:14:46 AM »

Quote from: Schezo on March 02, 2014, 07:53:24 AM

Raikaria's case on Sky Paladin acknowledges that it lacks any conviction with the post after and then he immediatly switches. If he had just kept this it would have been an "ok I guess" kind of case but he makes that unneeded after it and immediately bails. The Zakeri hop again feels like it was just a "Zakeri did scum move #32" when it's possible for town to have committed the action too.
##Vote: Raikaria

Except I swapped because then I checked about Zakeri's stance on NNR. I made a case on Sky_Paladin based on his claims about myself, then I read Zakeri and conceded he had a point there. I did state when I voted Sky that I hadn't read Zakeri yet, and it didn't take very long to go back one page and Ctrl-F NNR. For what it's worth, Sky is still pretty high on my potentially scum list for his severe misrep of me.

Anyway, after sleeping on it, I don't think that the connections O4rfish drew up between Actiondan and NNR are solid. At least, no more solid than my theory about Sky_Paladin's Day 1 flip-flop meaning something. I mean when I flipped I stated beforehand 'I still gotta read Zakeri'.

DNAbc · « **Reply #427 on:** March 02, 2014, 11:51:05 AM »

Quote from: Schezo on March 02, 2014, 07:53:24 AM

Gosh it sucks that Bardiche's slot is the most null thing in the game.

People (Oarfish, Raikaria) trying to spec into why the n1 kill of Cheez died are goofy as shit. Even with a scumflip, pursuing that to make the Dan case and whatever else you're doing with it literally means almost nothing.
The Zakeri cases feel so by the book I'm not really sold on it. "Wow such a scum move day 2 let's get him" It's just meh.

Raikaria's case on Sky Paladin acknowledges that it lacks any conviction with the post after and then he immediatly switches. If he had just kept this it would have been an "ok I guess" kind of case but he makes that unneeded after it and immediately bails. The Zakeri hop again feels like it was just a "Zakeri did scum move #32" when it's possible for town to have committed the action too.
##Vote: Raikaria

I echo your sentiments regarding the kill speculation. Yet however your opinion on my case being too 'by the book' is perhaps subject to some alterations. For firstly not only I did question Zakeri about his intent behind the hammering for which he gave us a contradictory response, which means that theres more to just a 'by the book' accusation. But secondly I have also pointed out how Zakeri went from 'Vote Schezo' to 'kill NNR' in the span of one single post. Theres no valid justification for his behavior as town, so he can only be scum who intended to cut off discussion.

I would also remind Schezo that even if an argument is commonly used doesnt necessarily hinder its credibility. In the same way we all are currently using interactions to nail the scums and we accept theories which are based on that, the same applies to quickhammers too obviously.

Simply stating my argument is commonplace doesnt make it wrong.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #428 on:** March 02, 2014, 12:21:51 PM »

Actually at this point I'm going to go with:

Zak voted for ActionDan = they cannot both be scum.
DNA votes for Zak = they cannot both be scum.
Raikaria votes for Zak = they cannot both be scum.

That is three cases of 'cannot be scum' for Zak so the only way Zak can be scum is if he is scumbuddies with Serela.

Buuuuuuut who is not voting:
ActionDan, Serela.

This looks like a sever case of 'hedging your bets'. My pick for scum team are those two.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #429 on:** March 02, 2014, 12:23:20 PM »

In case it's not clear, there's only one chance for Zak to be scum, but there's four chances for Dan to be scum. There's five chances for Serela to be scum.

The only one not really in my POE is Raikaria because there is a chance of Raikaria/Serela or Raikaria/Danscum.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #430 on:** March 02, 2014, 12:26:03 PM »

But I have my own reasons for suspecting Raikaria is actually town but that depends on wether or not he was crumbing a town role on day 1.

Well, were you?

DNAbc · « **Reply #431 on:** March 02, 2014, 12:27:52 PM »

Sky P I find your conclusions to be most nonplussing and your explanation indecipherable. Would you care to clarify?

O4rfish · « **Reply #432 on:** March 02, 2014, 01:57:45 PM »

Skypal, are you really making a case on Serela based on a lack of interactions?

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #433 on:** March 02, 2014, 02:20:33 PM »

I am trying simultaneous equations based on interactions.

On the surface: Most obvious picks are Zak, Dan.

Secondary factors: I think Raikaria is either roled town or scum, and I want a claim so that if he claims a role then the real roled towny can counterclaim. I don't need to know what his role is. I just want 'yes I am roled town' or 'no I am vanilla'. So I removed Raikaria from my equation until I get a result.

Complementary secondary factors: Zak hasn't commented on Raikaria for my initial overnight pick of Zak + Raikaria.

Final thoughts: Dan appears to be scum and hasn't voted. The only other player who hasn't voted is Serela. It looks like scum in LYLO pattern where they putt around three quarters of the phase and wait for one towny to vote and then jump on it. I am voting for Dan, and I am considering Serela as a potential scumbuddy but we don't have a flip of Dan so I'm not lining up lynches. But I do consider the alignment of Dan to indicate an alignment of Serela.

DNAbc · « **Reply #434 on:** March 02, 2014, 02:36:12 PM »

I am afraid I still do not understand any of that , I am sorry.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #435 on:** March 02, 2014, 02:52:00 PM »

Ah okay.

I have to go to bed and I will resummarise it when I get up and have a fresh mind. I'm sorry my explanation isn't clear.

Serela · « **Reply #436 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:38:52 PM »

SkyPal:X hasn't voted for Y so they can be scum together... this is an explanation that fills apart the moment you realize it's not uncommon for scum to bus eachother. You're really calling me scum because NO ONE VOTED ME FOR BEING SCUM? >_>; Isn't that support that I'm town or something because no one thinks I'm scummy?

Anyway, it is probably kinda meh that I'm not voting, I admit- but, I've declared that I definitely do not agree with the people voting Zak, that I kinda don't agree with the people voting Dan, that I'd maybe be coolbeans with voting SkyPal (I wanted some discussion about this but everyone ignored me ;_;) and I'd lynch Raikaria. So while it's meh that I haven't voted my priorities are clear as day and I can't just wait for someone to vote and then jump on it.

[quoteSkyPal]But I have my own reasons for suspecting Raikaria is actually town but that depends on wether or not he was crumbing a town role on day 1.
Well, were you?[/quote]
Please stop rolefishing. Like fucking seriously. I already went over this. Sure, if we have a roleblocker/doc they're pretty much confirmed town. But if they're not about to be lynching you don't fucking want them to claim. Those are important PRs and they're just going to get shot in the goddamn face tonight if they claim >_>; Slightly pissy because A.Just woke up and B.Already went over this once today for you and it's a Really Shouldn't Be Doing This thing!

We probably only have -one more town PR-. If you look at the way the setup is generated, that means they must be a doc or RB (or schezo is fullcop, but) and those are both capable of preventing the scum NK, and RB'er even generates guilties on scum (and later potentially clears on town), esp. with a lack of vig/sk generating extra kills.

Serela · « **Reply #437 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:39:31 PM »

(Dan on the other hand hasn't had opinions since the end of d1 so he could actually realistically be guilty of what you're accusing him of)

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #438 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:44:16 PM »

Acually looking at day 1 interactions while on the John.

Sky voted Serela in RVS.
Serela OMGUS.
NNR votes Sky for like all day.
Dan "NNR and Bardiche are town"
Then a little later
Dan "NNR and Bardiche and Serela are town"

Interactions are pretty bad
Need a flip of Dan to implicate/clear Serela or Bardiche probably.

Serela I don't want his role. I just want to know if roled (therefore incontestable TOWNY) or vanilla TOWNY (therefore fake crumbing. Day 1 and is scum). I don't know why phone auto corrects t o w n to TOWNY.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #439 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:45:59 PM »

Although your over reaction to my mathclaim is kinda suspicious tbh

Serela · « **Reply #440 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:47:41 PM »

Quote from: Sky_Paladin on March 02, 2014, 03:44:16 PM

Serela I don't want his role. I just want to know if roled (therefore incontestable TOWNY) or vanilla TOWNY (therefore fake crumbing. Day 1 and is scum). I don't know why phone auto corrects t o w n to TOWNY.

You're really not listening! IF WE HAVE ANOTHER PR THEY ARE A DOCTOR OR ROLEBLOCKER. I think it's really unlikely we have 3 more PR letters for a variety of reasons. If Raikaria claims "I have any PR at all" then he's most likely a super useful one that's going to die immediately. That or he's scum, but, they're probably just claim VT for safety.

Then again maybe I'm overestimating how unlikely three more PR letters would be and being stupid, come to think of it, but, still, Raikaria isn't even in danger of being lynched today (regardless of being my top scumspect, there's not 4 people who suspect Raikaria significantly, and that's with YOU being the third) so why do we want him to claim and get shot tonight if he's a PR, again?

Serela · « **Reply #441 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:49:24 PM »

Quote from: Sky_Paladin on March 02, 2014, 03:45:59 PM

Although your over reaction to my mathclaim is kinda suspicious tbh

...what

I'm telling you to stop because THAT'S NOT HOW MAFIA WORKS AND YOU'RE BARKING UP THE WRONG TREES. ;_; Everyone can you back me up here? Darkie and O4rfish already kinda went "uh... uh. What?" at you, but yeah, if you're really going to say "Oh you don't agree MAYBE YOU'RE MAFIA" then I apparently need a unanimous agreement that this kind of scumhunt tactic is totally unfunctional. :C

Serela · « **Reply #442 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:51:36 PM »

I mean if you want mathmatical proof you can go apply this tactic to past games and watch as most of the time it falls on it's face

Serela · « **Reply #443 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:55:17 PM »

now the interaction post you just made about AD isn't bad

Although I'd say it's a bit overreacting because TBH Dan seems to give out townreads like candy D1 for the past while, and postgame we tend to look back and go "welp town!dan you declared the entire scumteam town on ed1" :V But apart from this criticizm that's actually more of a valid mafia tactic so yeah. It's definitely better than the X voted Y So They're Not Scumbuddies thing.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #444 on:** March 02, 2014, 03:59:42 PM »

I really am in bed now and my wife is "turn that thing off I can't sleep" so last post yo

Point 1
It's great you want to defend Raikaria but they are quite capable of deciding for themselves what to say including "refuse to answer".

Point 2
You said "unlikely to be 3 more letters for a variety of reasons"

Let's talk about those reasons because Imsuddenly reAlly interested for no particular reason

What do you know that we don't? That kind of thing

Serela · « **Reply #445 on:** March 02, 2014, 04:02:09 PM »

It's not even about Raikaria SkyPal. It's just about, it's not cool to go around asking PRs to claim for no reason so that mafia has free will to go shoot them in the face tonight >_> It's just not good mafia play.

Maybe I'll get into the letters thing in a minute but I'll go eat breakfast first I guess. It's really nothing interesting anyway, just some logic-crunching. I don't know anything you wouldn't if you stared at the setup generation page and thought about it long enough.

Serela · « **Reply #446 on:** March 02, 2014, 04:04:07 PM »

(and as for the voteanalysis thing, that's about It's Bad To Let ANYONE In The Game Use Borked Scumhunting, as that means misguided town effort or scum breezing by happily which are both significantly unhelpful things, also it's putting me high on your priorities which doesn't help since it's using "Serela is a general townread that has no votes because no one suspects" to "Serela isn't being voted, and therefore has a high chance of being scum" which is

??)

Serela · « **Reply #447 on:** March 02, 2014, 04:18:07 PM »

wait why -aren't- I voting

I really do not know

Maybe it didn't occur to me because all the voting people's priorities were like, the exact opposite of mine, but now Schezo is even voting my top scumspect

##Vote Raikaria

Dorian White · « **Reply #448 on:** March 02, 2014, 05:02:21 PM »

The business of the mafia is business.

Zakeri (3): Raikaria, Darkninjaabc, O4rfish
ActionDan (2): Zakeri, Sky_Paladin
Raikaria (2): Schezo, Serela

Not voting: ActionDan

Zakeri is at L-2

With 8 mooks kicking, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 Timer

O4rfish · « **Reply #449 on:** March 02, 2014, 05:52:53 PM »

Schezo, stop being a hipster. You can agree with the cases on Dan and Zak if they are logical, which they are.

Serela, what is your case on Raikaria even made of?